Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

I'm not a fan of the amount of posts and replies regarding the free bets because it just gets in the way of some very good stuff but IMO there is no way they should be removed from the thread. Winning money is winning money at the end of the day and  the bets being placed with the free bet attached are good bets when placed. If we know they are good bets why are we talking about removing them?

would poker players exclude rake back from their figs?

In general tho the thread is getting more like a betting shop where mates meet every day and talk about betting, share thoughts and ideas which is good but  it has really got to the stage now where two people can have a  convo about Spurs or Arsenal baiting and another half page has been taken up. Meanwhile the well thought out tip for Doncaster is now 3 pages back and either forgotten about or nobody has replied.

I tend to read lots of pages at once and it's far more irritating to read about some updates of a footy match that we can all watch if we wanted to than the free bets related post's

Just IMO tho   

Don't want to just seem like I'm making negative posts itt so I will firstly say this is one of the best threads there's ever been on here for sure, plus I don't post much as I'm a massive ice cream.

But just to expand on what Bobby has said, I do feel whilst it is a great thread it is possibly having a negative effect on the rest of the forum, to the point this thread is almost becoming the forum, there's a ton of posts itt that aren't relative to it, for instance it was posted in here about Jeff's bink, the problem with that is, assuming I'm not the only one who does this, there soon becomes 10+ pages to be caught up on so I just skip to the current point and may well be missing other topics as opposed to just what bets were placed that day.

Like Bobby, it's just me opinion, and don't have any ideas to make it better, just putting it out there.

this is a good point

Ordinarily I would have put jaffa a sweat thread up but was snowed under and it passed me by

thats just one example though

the thread is important to the forum and its a good place for people to chat, but its a balance between that and noise clogging it up and new threads not being posted elsewhere

this is stuff we consider all the time.

[JoeBeevers]

Question for Hector. Do you know why Wigan have shortened to 1.52 on Betfair and Leeds have drifted to 3.2? Is there any significant team news?

[The Camel]

I'm not a fan of the amount of posts and replies regarding the free bets because it just gets in the way of some very good stuff but IMO there is no way they should be removed from the thread. Winning money is winning money at the end of the day and  the bets being placed with the free bet attached are good bets when placed. If we know they are good bets why are we talking about removing them?

would poker players exclude rake back from their figs?

In general tho the thread is getting more like a betting shop where mates meet every day and talk about betting, share thoughts and ideas which is good but  it has really got to the stage now where two people can have a  convo about Spurs or Arsenal baiting and another half page has been taken up. Meanwhile the well thought out tip for Doncaster is now 3 pages back and either forgotten about or nobody has replied.

I tend to read lots of pages at once and it's far more irritating to read about some updates of a footy match that we can all watch if we wanted to than the free bets related post's

Just IMO tho   

Don't want to just seem like I'm making negative posts itt so I will firstly say this is one of the best threads there's ever been on here for sure, plus I don't post much as I'm a massive ice cream.

But just to expand on what Bobby has said, I do feel whilst it is a great thread it is possibly having a negative effect on the rest of the forum, to the point this thread is almost becoming the forum, there's a ton of posts itt that aren't relative to it, for instance it was posted in here about Jeff's bink, the problem with that is, assuming I'm not the only one who does this, there soon becomes 10+ pages to be caught up on so I just skip to the current point and may well be missing other topics as opposed to just what bets were placed that day.

Like Bobby, it's just me opinion, and don't have any ideas to make it better, just putting it out there.

this is a good point

Ordinarily I would have put jaffa a sweat thread up but was snowed under and it passed me by

thats just one example though

the thread is important to the forum and its a good place for people to chat, but its a balance between that and noise clogging it up and new threads not being posted elsewhere

this is stuff we consider all the time.

As I suggested a couple of months ago, why not have the actual bets and accounting in a different thread?

Discussion of tips, banter, reports and sweats stay here.

But once a wager is agreed, Tikay just types "ON" here and copies the receipt to the other thread.

Then peeps are less likely to miss a decent bet and they can look back here for the discussion/reasoning for the bet.

[hector62]

Sorry I haven't got a clue Mr Beevers. I have checked the Leeds lineup and it is not showing any notable omission.

Strike that Delaney is out for Leeds.

[JoeBeevers]

Sorry I haven't got a clue Mr Beevers. I have checked the Leeds lineup and it is not showing any notable omission.

Thanks, It's move back a few points now to 3.05.

[Tal]

There is already a record of every bet placed by Fred in the spreadsheet. The only issue is whether recommendations are getting missed, either by Tikay or by interested followers who choose their own bets.

[Marky147]

Pricewise horses tomorrow are -

15:30 Hay - Demora (Paul Kealy's NAP too)

15:50 New - Educate and King George River

[tikay]

I'm not a fan of the amount of posts and replies regarding the free bets because it just gets in the way of some very good stuff but IMO there is no way they should be removed from the thread. Winning money is winning money at the end of the day and  the bets being placed with the free bet attached are good bets when placed. If we know they are good bets why are we talking about removing them?

would poker players exclude rake back from their figs?

In general tho the thread is getting more like a betting shop where mates meet every day and talk about betting, share thoughts and ideas which is good but  it has really got to the stage now where two people can have a  convo about Spurs or Arsenal baiting and another half page has been taken up. Meanwhile the well thought out tip for Doncaster is now 3 pages back and either forgotten about or nobody has replied.

I tend to read lots of pages at once and it's far more irritating to read about some updates of a footy match that we can all watch if we wanted to than the free bets related post's

Just IMO tho   

Don't want to just seem like I'm making negative posts itt so I will firstly say this is one of the best threads there's ever been on here for sure, plus I don't post much as I'm a massive ice cream.

But just to expand on what Bobby has said, I do feel whilst it is a great thread it is possibly having a negative effect on the rest of the forum, to the point this thread is almost becoming the forum, there's a ton of posts itt that aren't relative to it, for instance it was posted in here about Jeff's bink, the problem with that is, assuming I'm not the only one who does this, there soon becomes 10+ pages to be caught up on so I just skip to the current point and may well be missing other topics as opposed to just what bets were placed that day.

Like Bobby, it's just me opinion, and don't have any ideas to make it better, just putting it out there.

this is a good point

Ordinarily I would have put jaffa a sweat thread up but was snowed under and it passed me by

thats just one example though

the thread is important to the forum and its a good place for people to chat, but its a balance between that and noise clogging it up and new threads not being posted elsewhere

this is stuff we consider all the time.

As I suggested a couple of months ago, why not have the actual bets and accounting in a different thread?

Discussion of tips, banter, reports and sweats stay here.

But once a wager is agreed, Tikay just types "ON" here and copies the receipt to the other thread.

Then peeps are less likely to miss a decent bet and they can look back here for the discussion/reasoning for the bet.

That may be one solution. Keith.

It would need to be a "LOCKED" thread, so only Tighty & I could access & Post on it.

A nadge more work for me, but quite a bit less for Tighty, which makes a lot of sense, as he is flat to the boards.

I could probably link to the "proposal", too.

Have to say, I'm really not keen on folks not being able to have the craic, & banter, a sterile thread with no chat & fun holds no interest for me whatsoever.

[Omm]

There is already a record of every bet placed by Fred in the spreadsheet. The only issue is whether recommendations are getting missed, either by Tikay or by interested followers who choose their own bets.

Great point Tal, gotta say as a Newby to the Fred I'm quite interested in all the talk, ok some can be cut out ie football chat in the relevant thread, jaffa's congrats etc but even that is not the end of the world.

I don't think it's even the end of the world if Tikay misses a bet, this is meant to be fun not his full time job. As for the rest of us, just read the thread properly and put on the bets u want, I log in and read every page everyday because I want to and I enjoy it, I get some great info and reasoning and because of this I have increased my personal knowledge and made some of my own shred investments, when I'm confident enough I'd like to think I'd contribute more.

I rarely use other parts of blonde but it does bother me that Fred could be detracting from other parts of the site as surely that would affect the long term viability of the site.

It's been said many times that the thread means different things to different people and that will never change, but by all accounts it has certainly evolved and seems to be getting bigger by the day. Someone needs to make a decision, Tikay's name is above the door and I think it's great that he has thrown it open for debate ( and even that's evolved!!!) but I have a feeling that he will not be able to please everybody, all I ask is that we keep it going for as long as possible.

[superwomble]

One bookmaker that is has priced up LMA manager of the year, an award voted for by fellow managers and there looks to be a large discrepancy on the book. Yes Fred cannot bet with them, neither can I but hopefully someone finds this of use.

The big 4 managers look priced up for the ice-cream money:
6/4 Pellegrini
5/2 Moyes
4-1 Mourinho
8-1 Wenger
You can get equal or longer odds on any of them clubs to win the title. All 4 managers minimum requirement to win the award must surely be to win the title.
Note:
5/20 awards have gone to that year's title winner.
18/20 winning managers have been from England or Scotland (ok inc once to Joe Kinnear). Wenger has won it twice.
17/20 winners were from the top tier.
That leaves us with 12/20 winners from an underdog EPL side.

The title winners part looks explainable in that they not only have to win it but do it in style.
There's 2 ways we can explain the lack of foreign winners:
1: all 4 divisions vote for the winner, the lower leagues have a higher percentage of home nation managers who are more likely to vote for a home nations winner.
2: There's a bias toward managers who have built up good will over a number of years. That theory is in a similar manner to how Jeff Bridges won an Oscar not for his greatest performance but for a good performance when it was acceptable for him to be given the award after years of building up recognition.


There are 10 British managed underdogs we could make a case for, from Brendan Rodgers at 16-1 up to 66-1 on Chris Houghton.

One name that stands out a mile is Steve Bruce at 50-1. He's generally well liked, has been around long enough, his team are off to an encouraging start and crazily he's the second longest price available.

Just checking, this is a joke yes? 

[tikay]

One bookmaker that is has priced up LMA manager of the year, an award voted for by fellow managers and there looks to be a large discrepancy on the book. Yes Fred cannot bet with them, neither can I but hopefully someone finds this of use.

The big 4 managers look priced up for the ice-cream money:
6/4 Pellegrini
5/2 Moyes
4-1 Mourinho
8-1 Wenger
You can get equal or longer odds on any of them clubs to win the title. All 4 managers minimum requirement to win the award must surely be to win the title.
Note:
5/20 awards have gone to that year's title winner.
18/20 winning managers have been from England or Scotland (ok inc once to Joe Kinnear). Wenger has won it twice.
17/20 winners were from the top tier.
That leaves us with 12/20 winners from an underdog EPL side.

The title winners part looks explainable in that they not only have to win it but do it in style.
There's 2 ways we can explain the lack of foreign winners:
1: all 4 divisions vote for the winner, the lower leagues have a higher percentage of home nation managers who are more likely to vote for a home nations winner.
2: There's a bias toward managers who have built up good will over a number of years. That theory is in a similar manner to how Jeff Bridges won an Oscar not for his greatest performance but for a good performance when it was acceptable for him to be given the award after years of building up recognition.


There are 10 British managed underdogs we could make a case for, from Brendan Rodgers at 16-1 up to 66-1 on Chris Houghton.

One name that stands out a mile is Steve Bruce at 50-1. He's generally well liked, has been around long enough, his team are off to an encouraging start and crazily he's the second longest price available.

Just checking, this is a joke yes? 

Well it did cause an eyebrow to arch, I confess, but there is a price for everything........

[superwomble]

I meant the bit about Joe Kinnear!

[Omm]

I can't say for sure whether the prices are value or not but tmrw in the golf a couple of matches don't add up.

Kaymer vs Bello

Kaymer is 4/6 with Stan James, the interesting fact is that Kaymer is -9 for tournament so far and Bello is +2 so this gives you the indication of their form over the last 2 rounds.

As well as this 4/6 is the same price I got on Kaymer yesterday to beat Vijay Singh, so I'm not sure how Stan James are pricing this up and whether it's just generic pricing.

Luiten vs McGinley

Luiten is also 4/6 and is currently -14 vs McGinley -6 and my reason for pointing this out is the same as above, the one difference yesterday was Luiten was a slightly better price but he was matched with someone on the same score as him.

As well as this he is in the form of his life, having won a tournament recently and is now around 4-1 fav to win this.

Obviously on the day anything can happen but I wouldn't expect Kaymer and Luiten to post worse scores than Bello and McGinley.

The only thing I do not have is the mathematical knowledge to say why 4/6 is value, maybe someone can help with this and either back up my view or explain why the maths says different.

If it's backed up id like to recommend the bets for Fred. For whatever stake Tikay is comfortable with.

http://www.europeantour.com/europeantour/season=2013/tournamentid=2013076/leaderboard/index.html?showLeaderboard=Y

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/alfred-dunhill-links-championship

[BigAdz]

Hi Omm

I think the odds are closer than you would expect in similar situations because they play a different course tomorrow.

You only have to look at the scoreboard and the massive swings that occur when these guys are changing courses.

I haven't looked at the selections but it maybe that A has a better course record than B etc, and will be happier at Carnoustie than KingsBarns for example.

Just my thoughts

[Omm]

Hi Omm

I think the odds are closer than you would expect in similar situations because they play a different course tomorrow.

You only have to look at the scoreboard and the massive swings that occur when these guys are changing courses.

I haven't looked at the selections but it maybe that A has a better course record than B etc, and will be happier at Carnoustie than KingsBarns for example.

Just my thoughts

Hi Adz, understand your point but if you look at the top 20 there is only 1 player with a major swing, 71 vs 60 today, in general there are no more than 5 shots different, which is not a massive swing, and is even closer in the top few. That being said I suppose in golf especially links golf swings and swongs can happen to anyone and trying to find value in 4/6 may not be the best strategy.