Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Mass multi tabling internet pros have nothing on Tikay in his prime.

Pack it in, I've got a bonfire to put out.

[TightEnd]

could redarmi/NFL people give me an opinion on Jordan Cameron 1st TD tonight 15/2 Paddy Power?

beats Betfair

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/buffalo-bills-at-cleveland-browns/first-touchdown-scorer

Cameron leads all tight ends with 30 receptions, and his five receiving touchdowns are tied for second overall in the league.

this in in 4 games, and in the first two games he had Weeden throwing to him

Since Hoyer took over he has 4 of his five TDs, and the offense is a lot more prolific. Gordon is back from suspension, draws double coverage and leaves Cameron one on one in the end zone. Hence the TDproduction

game yds Tds        

1   MIA   Loss, 10-23    108 1   
2   @BAL Loss, 6-14     95 0
--------------------------------------
3   @MIN Win, 31-27     66 3   
4   CIN   Win, 17-6         91 1

Cleveland don't have a prolific running game now, so its a bit less likely they'll bang it in with three runs from inside the 10...

Buffalo Spiller and Jackson are both nicked up


I thought 15/2 was an interesting price.

[Tal]

What about Robert Woods, with Spiller and Jackson struggling? Seems to be a target for Manuel, much to the delight of the Arkansas Gravediggers hierachy

[Snowball]

Marky, it looks a good enough offer to me regarding Taylor.
One thing I would say is that on recent form Caven should give him more of a game than Nicholson/Thornton especially as its a shorter format in the first round and Taylor is always at his most vulnerable.

[TightEnd]

What about Robert Woods, with Spiller and Jackson struggling? Seems to be a target for Manuel, much to the delight of the Arkansas Gravediggers hierachy

sure, but the Cleveland defence is lights out good against number 1 receivers. look at what Joe Haden did to AJ Green last week

[Tal]

What about Robert Woods, with Spiller and Jackson struggling? Seems to be a target for Manuel, much to the delight of the Arkansas Gravediggers hierachy

sure, but the Cleveland defence is lights out good against number 1 receivers. look at what Joe Haden did to AJ Green last week

Fairly put. Should just say the betfair market is of no use as there was only £20 matched (so £10) in it when I looked a few mins ago. Looks a fun sweat, though.

[tikay]

William Hill have ducked every market in the Golf and we have to use our 2 free bets by sometime tomorrow.  In fact it has been a real struggle finding anything to bet on with them at all.  I don't think we can back on the Champion Stakes as the runners look uncertain and Hills seem too short on everything anyway.

Hills Arc prices look more generous, but Treve looks a little short for a freebie, so I think the best option is Ruler of the World.  He has been a bit maligned since the Derby, but looked unlucky in the Prix Neil.  He is best price with Hills at 14/1, goes on the likely ground and isn't far from Betfair. 

I have looked at the Champion's League for the UK clubs and Hills are only biggest on Man U (16/1), which feels a stretch as they seem to be in transition.

The other market I had a good look at was the FA Cup.  Hills are top on Chelsea (6/1) and Arsenal at 9/1.  Both prices beat Betfair.  Arsenal look the better side to me currently, but I think Chelsea will take it more seriously.  So unless anybody wants to make a better case for Arsenal, suggest the other goes on Chelsea in the FA Cup at 6/1.

These are Wm Hill FREE BETS

BOTH BETS PLACED

[redarmi]

could redarmi/NFL people give me an opinion on Jordan Cameron 1st TD tonight 15/2 Paddy Power?

beats Betfair

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/buffalo-bills-at-cleveland-browns/first-touchdown-scorer

Cameron leads all tight ends with 30 receptions, and his five receiving touchdowns are tied for second overall in the league.

this in in 4 games, and in the first two games he had Weeden throwing to him

Since Hoyer took over he has 4 of his five TDs, and the offense is a lot more prolific. Gordon is back from suspension, draws double coverage and leaves Cameron one on one in the end zone. Hence the TDproduction

game yds Tds        

1   MIA   Loss, 10-23    108 1   
2   @BAL Loss, 6-14     95 0
--------------------------------------
3   @MIN Win, 31-27     66 3   
4   CIN   Win, 17-6         91 1

Cleveland don't have a prolific running game now, so its a bit less likely they'll bang it in with three runs from inside the 10...

Buffalo Spiller and Jackson are both nicked up


I thought 15/2 was an interesting price.

I have been puzzling over this game all night (almost literally - was awake until two and then couldn't sleep because it was bothering me...sad eh?).  Everything I read is about the WR1's are lighting up Buffalos corners for huge numbers and that Gordon will have a huge game and I thought he might be value but coaches can read stats too and it seems too easy.  Cameron seems the obvious answer but the odds compilers have seen that too.  These don't tend to move too much so let me actually do the numbers and check on one key ingredient and get back to you.  I feel the answer is Gordon and/or Cameron are value.....

[tikay]

BetVictor only Leo Ulloa to be brighton top GS, he's out for a couple of months with a break and has gone from 2/7 jolly to 5-1. He has 4 goals already and i'd be backing him at 6/4 as when he is fit again he will be played as a loan striker and even in a 2 man setup he would always be the target man.

Get on, get paid......if you can

Interesting one this. Broken foot is 4-6 weeks by all accounts, so he could be back by late November. It's also a positive that Brighton aren't exactly free-scoring; four goals might be enough to TID...

I've snapped up the 5-1 anyway. Fred can take some if wanted.

BET PLACED

£10 @ 5/1

[tikay]

I hesitate to suggest it but here we go

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/korean-grand-prix/safety-car

There was at least one Safety Car in both the 2010 and 2011 races at Yeongam, but last year did not feature one.

There was a Safety Car due to the heavy rain at the start of the 2010 race and then the race was suspended. In total that race featured 26 laps, or 47% of the race distance, behind the Safety Car!

In 2011 there were four laps spent behind the Safety Car.


The Yeongam circuit’s position, close to the coast, means that it is susceptible to weather fronts and a tropical storm known as FITOW by the Japanese Typhoon Warning authorities, could be headed for the Yeongam area on Sunday or Monday.

Click to see full-size image.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/typhoon-fitow-china-korea/18392275

Recommend a modest wager with bwin.its not a 9/10 shot on this track in this weather front. if the race is cancelled, we're obviously void

BET PLACED

£30 @ 1.9

[redarmi]

Okay - this is a really tough one.

Last year the Browns passed on roughly 55% of their plays.  This year so far it has been 77%.  That stat is too high and can only really come down but the chances are that Willis McGahee still doesn't know the playbook properly so the Bills will know it is a running play almost everytime he comes in which will give the Browns only one decent option on the ground so they still figure to pass the ball a lot.  My best guess would be 65-70% of the time.  I would think that Cameron is probably targeted 32-33% of the time and they figure to get 57% of first TD's....at the top end of those figures he is value at the best prices in the market and I think Tighty's suggestion (and he would be a better judge than me) is that they will hit the top end figure for targets for sure then he is a bet but I would be loathe to take less than 15/2.  My initial thoughts about Gordon are almost certainly wrong.  I make him a marginal bet only in the very best of circumstances.

[tikay]

Just noticed that Spoylesports are offering cash back on losing bets if MVG wins the World Grand Prix (Up to €100)

Taylor is 2/1 across the board other than bwin, who have him up at 9/4 and they are best priced on Lewis @ 10/1

Obviously it would be more appealing if they're in opposite halves of the draw, but I'm not sure if that is the case.

Thanks Marky. We really need to see that draw first, don't we?

Just managed to find it on the PDC website, they are in opposite halves which makes my initial thought of backing Taylor more appealing.

http://www.pdc.tv/partypoker-world-grand-prix/article/vkmgho6pi6jq13rtha5xosqqo/title/partypokercom-world-grand-prix-schedule

The second round is split across Wednesday October 9 and Thursday October 10, with the top half of the draw in action on Wednesday including a possible repeat of the 2007 final between Wade and Jenkins and a potential rematch of last year's second round win for Thornton against Taylor.

Thursday's four second round fixtures could include an all-Dutch clash with van Gerwen against van Barneveld.



Wednesday October 9 (7pm)

Second Round

Wade/Beaton v Finnan/Jenkins
Newton/Wright v Anderson/Klaasen
Taylor/Caven v Nicholson/Thornton
Whitlock/Mansell v Baxter/Lloyd


Thursday October 10 (7pm)

Second Round

Lewis/Dolan v Pipe/Smith
Chisnall/White v Jones/King
van Gerwen/Part v Kellett/van Barneveld
Hamilton/Huybrechts v Painter/Burnett


Could be tough 2nd round matches for both Taylor and MVG, but you generally have to beat them at some point in the competition

BET PLACED

(£50 @ 9/4)

Think I may have led you down misclick boulevard, Tikay, sorry.

 I wasn't recommending we bet Taylor with bwin, I was thinking about backing him with Boyles at 2/1 with the added value of  our dough if MVG wins.

I have VOIDED the original £50 @ 9/4, & taken it off-thread.

Will get on with the Boyles Offer later.

[tikay]

Don't let the free bet expire Tikay!

Whilst engaged in my really tough life, did you know I was only one place away from a £50 final table bonus next door.  I blame TommyD and his god wife, ZoeD, both sat on my left, for costing me tens of pounds.  Was 2 tabling like a boss late on.  Those fellas that spin lots and lots of plates on sticks have nothing on me (this feels very much like a 70s reference, the art of plate spinning died around the time Love Thy Neighbour went).

I never even knew we did a £50 FT Bonus!

You'll not believe this, but right now, I'm playing a Tourney next door. Big jobbie. 28 runners. £2.20 Entry fee. Up top? £28. Eat your heart out Winamax Man.

You can buy half my action if you want. Am average stack, with 20 players left. 50 Bigs @ 75/150. Offers over £14 will be carefully considered.

[tikay]

Yes!

Am up to date, the Bets Thread too.

Just got to put that Marky Darts bet on with Boylesports, which I'll do later.

All plates still spinning merrily.

[Chompy]

Attention NFL experts...

Tennessee QB is out injured and they play KC this weekend. KC are red hot, especially on Deeee, and the back-up could panic. The -3 looks a bargain to me. Any thoughts?