Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

As to backing his 2 bets for tonight, I'm worried we may have missed the wedding & all that. It'd hurt a bit to miss his scoop weekend, & then back a pair of losers on the Monday night game!

You shouldn't be worried about this - it's the superstitious gambler mentality coming out.  If we're trusting the judgement of a particular tipster it shouldn't matter if we miss a couple as in theory they are all good spots anyway.

Just like if someone was laying 5/4 on (fair) coin flips you wouldn't shirk it just because your mate had already had a few winners with him already.

Think you got me there. Fair kop, guv.

We'll load up later, if the prices remain the same or better. Not gonna take lesser prices, or he'll shout at me.

I had a long think about those Antyime Trebles yesterday. The bet lost, as you know, but even so, I know I should have bet biggger. Felt a bit of a charlie afterwards.

There is deffo a way of optimising them, too, as either you or reds explained, it only works in certain circumstances, & won't occur very often. Worth looking out for the triple witching hour though. It remains my view that multiples are essentially a bad thing, but yes, value is value. Think it is much harder to realise value in trebs & accas, but to be fair, the value is adjusted - to a degree - to allow for that.

Ladbrokes offer some really Enhanced prices on 4 & 5 folds. They ain't daft, the profit the Bookies make on Accas & the like is eye-popping. Guess it's the roulette syndrome in so many of us, stick the lot on 17. We get that buzz, we might win a bundle......

[Jamier-Host]

The multiples thing again should just be about the combined price.  The reason for the standard "multiples are bad" thinking is twofold, firstly they increase variance which a lot of people are uncomfortable with (unless it's micro stakes to win shed loads like the lottery), but mainly it's just that for a mug punter they are just exacerbating their negative edge by trying to get 2 or more -ev propositions to come in.

Going back to coin flips, if you were getting 10/11 then you're getting into horrible spots by betting on consecutive heads or some other nonsense.  However if someone sticks up a coupon where they offer fixed odds on a set of 10 flips that weekend, there is a price where you're interested in piling in.  Say they offer 10/1 for picking any 3 of them right, and 25/1 for any 4....  I don't think you'd be worrying about the fact they restrict you to minimum trebles.

[sonour]

Hills and Ladbrokes refund if second offer has reverted to Channel 4 races only.

[Eso Kral]

Value Pie being eaten

We are currently dining on some Tranmere relegation value pie as they are now into a best priced 11/10 http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-1/relegation and the next 9 fixtures which take us to the end of November look pretty good for us with hopefully no more than 6-8 pts being garnered.

Oct
Bradford (A)
Leyton O (H)
Rotherham (A)
MK Dons (H)

Nov
Preston (A)
Bristol City (H)
Coventry (A)
Wolves (A)
Colchester (H)

[tikay]

Value Pie being eaten

We are currently dining on some Tranmere relegation value pie as they are now into a best priced 11/10 http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-1/relegation and the next 9 fixtures which take us to the end of November look pretty good for us with hopefully no more than 6-8 pts being garnered.

Oct
Bradford (A)
Leyton O (H)
Rotherham (A)
MK Dons (H)

Nov
Preston (A)
Bristol City (H)
Coventry (A)
Wolves (A)
Colchester (H)

Shush.

You never heard the expression "snatched defeat from the jaws of victory"?

You ought to have.

[tikay]

Hills and Ladbrokes refund if second offer has reverted to Channel 4 races only.

Ha, thanks Mrs Bandit! I'm afraid I'm in Ladbrokes bad books, but it's useful for everyone else.

I loved that story you told of you & Pete traipsing round all the Betting Shops! Great stuff.

So pleased you are a Freddie. We used to play the little comps at Walsall, back in the day.

How old are the twins now? 6 months? 9 months? Be walking soon, & all sorts. Pete still grumpy? Give him my best, please.

We had a little fall out once, about 7 years ago. Someone had flamed a mate of his (mate of mine too, as it happened) on blonde, & he was a bit cross with me, as he thought I should have removed the Post. Being a Mod proper sucks at times....

Hope to see you soon.

[aaron1867]

Anyone have lost of c4 races? I can't find them on Google!

[tikay]

Anyone have lost of c4 races? I can't find them on Google!

There are none on Channel 4 today.

[Tal]

Anyone have lost of c4 races? I can't find them on Google!

Channel 4's website is usually helpful for that, too. It has a racing section that tells you which races are on.

[tikay]

NFL tip for tomorrow's game:

Atlanta Falcons first FG - 11/10, PaddyPower - http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/new-york-jets-at-atlanta-falcons/1st-field-goal

Three things make me believe this is worth a bet:

1) Matt Ryan is averaging 330 yards passing per game this season, but it has been well documented that Atlanta have one of the worst Red Zone TD percentages in the NFL. This should mean the Falcons end up kicking a lot of field goals.

2) The Jets have the 2nd most giveaways this season, with 12 - The only team with more giveaways at the moment is the Giants (16). This means that the Falcons should get opportunities to start drives with decent field position, and the Jets could potentially end up taking points off the board, too.

3) Also, whenever the Falcons have won the toss this season, they have elected to receive the ball first (Thank you, Atlanta Falcons Twitter page). Not sure how relevant a sample size of 2 really is, but it can only be a good thing for a first field goal bet, right?

No views on this, then?

[Marky147]

Ted Veale won't be running the Cesarewitch, which isn't the worst news in the world for Fred.

[JaffaCake]

Value Pie being eaten

We are currently dining on some Tranmere relegation value pie as they are now into a best priced 11/10 http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-1/relegation and the next 9 fixtures which take us to the end of November look pretty good for us with hopefully no more than 6-8 pts being garnered.

Oct
Bradford (A)
Leyton O (H)
Rotherham (A)
MK Dons (H)

Nov
Preston (A)
Bristol City (H)
Coventry (A)
Wolves (A)
Colchester (H)

Shush.

You never heard the expression "snatched defeat from the jaws of victory"?

You ought to have.

In unrelated news, Walsall have awarded their manager a new contract today. Doin a fine job that man

[Eso Kral]

Value Pie being eaten

We are currently dining on some Tranmere relegation value pie as they are now into a best priced 11/10 http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-1/relegation and the next 9 fixtures which take us to the end of November look pretty good for us with hopefully no more than 6-8 pts being garnered.

Oct
Bradford (A)
Leyton O (H)
Rotherham (A)
MK Dons (H)

Nov
Preston (A)
Bristol City (H)
Coventry (A)
Wolves (A)
Colchester (H)

Shush.

You never heard the expression "snatched defeat from the jaws of victory"?

You ought to have.

In unrelated news, Walsall have awarded their manager a new contract today. Doin a fine job that man

Please dont remind him!

[sonour]

Hills and Ladbrokes refund if second offer has reverted to Channel 4 races only.

Ha, thanks Mrs Bandit! I'm afraid I'm in Ladbrokes bad books, but it's useful for everyone else.

I loved that story you told of you & Pete traipsing round all the Betting Shops! Great stuff.

So pleased you are a Freddie. We used to play the little comps at Walsall, back in the day.

How old are the twins now? 6 months? 9 months? Be walking soon, & all sorts. Pete still grumpy? Give him my best, please.

We had a little fall out once, about 7 years ago. Someone had flamed a mate of his (mate of mine too, as it happened) on blonde, & he was a bit cross with me, as he thought I should have removed the Post. Being a Mod proper sucks at times....

Hope to see you soon.

The twins are three next month !! Where does the time go ? I'll try to post a picture on your diary. Just need to have a word with their Dad first. He has some funny ideas about the big bad Internet.

I'm sure Pete has forgotten he fell out with you now.

Pete ? However well you know him you can't begin to imagine !!

[tikay]

Hills and Ladbrokes refund if second offer has reverted to Channel 4 races only.

Ha, thanks Mrs Bandit! I'm afraid I'm in Ladbrokes bad books, but it's useful for everyone else.

I loved that story you told of you & Pete traipsing round all the Betting Shops! Great stuff.

So pleased you are a Freddie. We used to play the little comps at Walsall, back in the day.

How old are the twins now? 6 months? 9 months? Be walking soon, & all sorts. Pete still grumpy? Give him my best, please.

We had a little fall out once, about 7 years ago. Someone had flamed a mate of his (mate of mine too, as it happened) on blonde, & he was a bit cross with me, as he thought I should have removed the Post. Being a Mod proper sucks at times....

Hope to see you soon.

The twins are three next month !! Where does the time go ? I'll try to post a picture on your diary. Just need to have a word with their Dad first. He has some funny ideas about the big bad Internet.

I'm sure Pete has forgotten he fell out with you now.

Pete ? However well you know him you can't begin to imagine !!

3? Good Lord.

Love you to pop onto my Diary now & then.

We sorted it out the very next day, & that was that. Pete is a proper bloke, you know where you are with him, & he does not sulk or 'owt. We still get along famously, & he's tremendous table company when he has had a glass or two of red wine. He loves to take the youngsters on when they do the mardy-misery thing, & they soon realise you can't mess with him.

Grumpy though, yeah, shocking.

He was the first one I enjoyed watching in Late Night Poker, with his baseball cap & sort of edgy presence, he scared me & enthralled me. Then I turned up at Walsall one day, & there he was, I could barely believe it. I could not have been more excited if it were Robbie Williams.