Tips for Tikay

[Jamier-Host]

On the coupon that we don't talk about.

I had a line on last night's coupon with a company that only lays £6 on their headline offer today.

Balotelli and Benzema both scored and Michu was a non runner.  They paid me 2/1 on the two goalscorers, so an average of about 8/11 each.  

That seems pretty stingy to me, so I think if people are going to do this, you need to be backing very last minute and making sure your runners are definitely playing before betting.  Otherwise you are opening yourself up to backing doubles at below best prices.  There is little point in finding a bet witha an EV of +20% bet one week, if you are going to find a -30% bet the next.  

Yep, I mentioned this last week I think.  The rules state 15/8 for a double which is pretty horrible, although weirdly I got paid 4/1 when this happened to me the first week.

[Marky147]

India 360-1 in 43 of the 50 overs to get the Australia sccore

lol!

Just need the boy Bailey to keep hitting cow corner!

[JoeBeevers]

Betfred have England at 33-1 for today only to win World Cup, £100 max. Would this be a bet to lay back nearer the time for a freebie?

24 on betfair at the moment.

Any thoughts?

TY TY.

Only saw this just now, but I managed to get £50 @ 33/1.

Must emphasise, this is a trading position.

Never thought I'd see the day I'd back England to win the World Cup again in my lifetime.

BET PLACED

Tote have also gone 33/1 but would only offer to lay me £1

[Chompy]

Tighty/Chompy

Any mileage in Bournemouth +14 on handicap with BV 1/4 1/2/3 @ 100-1

Would probably have to finish in top 8 for the e/w to come in and although sitting 8th at the moment they have lost more games (5) this season than those around and they are the only team in top 13 with a negative goal difference. All things considered surely the 100-1 is too high?

No other markets to compare it too so I presume BV think the will start to slide.

You may know more about there current squad than me as to whether they can maintain a top 1/3 finish this season?

ripple11 is your man for Bournemouth...supports them/watches them

I haven't seen them so far this season

Likewise, not seen'em this season. I'm all about League One (temporarily).

[bobby1]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £15.31

Outstanding Bets £2803.66

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=30

A loss of £3 yesterday

Rooney first goalscorer for England and Negredo first goalsscorer for Spain offset other bets namely Eriksen. Michu and unluckily Armenia

Australia are batting in the 2nd ODI and Finch hit a 50, Bailey not in yet

Updating the NFL Paassing yard bet

1   Peyton Manning, QB   DEN 2,179   
2   Drew Brees, QB NO   1,958   
3   Philip Rivers, QB SD   1,847   
4   Matthew Stafford, QBDET   1,772
5   Eli Manning, QB   NYG   1,721   
6   Joe Flacco, QB   BAL   1,702   
7   Tony Romo, QBDAL   1,693   
8   Matt Ryan, QB   ATL   1,649   
9   Aaron Rodgers, QB   1,646   
10   Jay Cutler, QB   CHI   1,630   

Ryan is falling away with injuries to his main receivers, Stafford having a good season and so far overcoming injury to Megatron, Brees as expected. Big surprise the return to form of Rivers. Rodgers has had a bye week, so will be higher once everyone else has


Chile did not draw 0-0 last night.

Ryan and Rodgers have had their bye weeks now Rich so rather than falling away Ryan actually had a decent bye week  as none of those above him had really big weeks. Will have to overcome the injury issues at Atlanta tho which is deffo a blow.

[ripple11]

Tighty/Chompy

Any mileage in Bournemouth +14 on handicap with BV 1/4 1/2/3 @ 100-1

Would probably have to finish in top 8 for the e/w to come in and although sitting 8th at the moment they have lost more games (5) this season than those around and they are the only team in top 13 with a negative goal difference. All things considered surely the 100-1 is too high?

No other markets to compare it too so I presume BV think the will start to slide.

You may know more about there current squad than me as to whether they can maintain a top 1/3 finish this season?

3 out of next 4 fixtures....away to Forest,Leicester and Burnley!

We are/could be missing at least 3 key players...Richie,Daniels ,Fraser...for the above matches.

Will the market stay for a while?......could see the price getting bigger after the next 4 matches.

 

[pleno1]

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/england/to-make-world-cup-squad

Max bet on Townsend- he will go,barring injury

Big bet in Fraser foster there is hardly any English keepers and evens is huge

11/10 on Chris stalling is big he is versatile and ahead of Phil jones in pecking order and England have v few centre halfs

9/1 Jordan Henderson seems big if he plays often for Liverpool I see him taking miners position more,than 1 in 9 times especially ifmmilner doesn't get a game at city (pellegrini loves Jesus navas who plays in same position)

Saido beharino at 20s could take defoes place. He is scoring lots of goals and featuring at west brom and n great form for England. If Defoe is injured he is natural replacement. Would suggest small bet

4/11 for glen Johnson I'd bet big. He's 1/5 elsewhere. Bet is with bet victor


1/3 Danny welbeck with sky bet is too big he's 1/8 elsewhere and will go. Doesn't get jnjured much

[Chompy]

^ All seem sensible enough but involves tieing up a lot of money for a long time at very short prices.

Natalie Gumball may have to withdraw from SCD after slipping a disc on Tuesday, according to The Sun.

[BigAdz]

^ All seem sensible enough but involves tieing up a lot of money for a long time at very short prices.

Natalie Gumball may have to withdraw from SCD after slipping a disc on Tuesday, according to The Sun.

Was going to make a panic lay. Her price is holding up though. Good old reliable Sun?!

[tikay]

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/england/to-make-world-cup-squad

Max bet on Townsend- he will go,barring injury

Big bet in Fraser foster there is hardly any English keepers and evens is huge

11/10 on Chris stalling is big he is versatile and ahead of Phil jones in pecking order and England have v few centre halfs

9/1 Jordan Henderson seems big if he plays often for Liverpool I see him taking miners position more,than 1 in 9 times especially ifmmilner doesn't get a game at city (pellegrini loves Jesus navas who plays in same position)

Saido beharino at 20s could take defoes place. He is scoring lots of goals and featuring at west brom and n great form for England. If Defoe is injured he is natural replacement. Would suggest small bet

4/11 for glen Johnson I'd bet big. He's 1/5 elsewhere. Bet is with bet victor


1/3 Danny welbeck with sky bet is too big he's 1/8 elsewhere and will go. Doesn't get jnjured much

I don't have a strong enough knowledge to quibble with those views Patrick, but they accord with the views of most experts, I'd say.

I'm not sure we'll be doing any though, we have to tie money up for 9 months, & with "player betting" we have to trust to luck that they don't get injured. Off the top of my head, I'd suggest we need to include for a 10% risk of any single player being unavailable due to injury. The Premier League season is a long long road.

Taking those 2 factors into account, I'm not sure backing 4/11 & 1/3 shots stacks up, or not for me, anyway.

Hope you win the lot.

[TightEnd]

Monthly Profit currently £26.73 after I added back the non-runner

No bets completed yesterday......

[BigAdz]

Interesting piece by Tom Segal in the Weekender, basically saying how perception of value has flown out the window, since the advent of exchanges.

People would rather have a stack of money on a horse when it has been backed from 3-1 into 6/4, than take the chance by making their own mind up and betting big at 3-1 before the market shows confidence.

Makes life a lot better for those with courage in their own convictions, and a true ability to read form and apply it, that's for sure.

[scotty2hatty]

Anyone got any interest in the Sky dogs tonight? Think Exocet is a bet at 6/4 in the Kent Derby Final, think it'll go off evens.

Also got small interests in Call Me Millie (7:49), Westmead Bertie (8:04) and Chow For Now (8:19) at 9/2, 12/1 and 8/1 respectively.

http://www.betpal.com/greyhound-racing-betting-tips-sittingbourne-17th-october

[BigAdz]

Anyone got any interest in the Sky dogs tonight? Think Exocet is a bet at 6/4 in the Kent Derby Final, think it'll go off evens.

Also got small interests in Call Me Millie (7:49), Westmead Bertie (8:04) and Chow For Now (8:19) at 9/2, 12/1 and 8/1 respectively.

http://www.betpal.com/greyhound-racing-betting-tips-sittingbourne-17th-october

Cheers Scotty, HU-all prices on Stan, bar exocet who is Tote. GL us

[ripple11]

^ All seem sensible enough but involves tieing up a lot of money for a long time at very short prices.

Natalie Gumball may have to withdraw from SCD after slipping a disc on Tuesday, according to The Sun.

Was going to make a panic lay. Her price is holding up though. Good old reliable Sun?!

If she makes it, it could help her likeability factor..... as the "anti dance trained" publicity keeps rearing its head in the press.

Anyone ever had a bye for a week in SCD?......I know they have in X factor.