Tips for Tikay

[Marky147]

Heisman is hotting up!

http://www.foxsportssouth.com/fox-sports-networks/story/Heisman-Forecast-Oregons-Mariota-wins-Ha?blockID=951261&feedID=3796


Latest odds

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/college-football-specials/heisman-trophy/winner

[tikay]

Heisman is hotting up!

http://www.foxsportssouth.com/fox-sports-networks/story/Heisman-Forecast-Oregons-Mariota-wins-Ha?blockID=951261&feedID=3796


Latest odds

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/college-football-specials/heisman-trophy/winner

Excellent news, thanks Mark. Longy & Jaffa will be chuffed to bits. Wonderful tip, that.

[Doobs]

Daily Report

Loss on Month £13.69

Outstanding Bets £3018.66

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=30

A loss of £40.42 yesterday. As we have heard, the referee in the Macclesfield-Southport game was a quiet sort and the game passed off without incident. Worse than the loss, in the interests of sweating the bet I had to endure Mark Clemmit and Helen Skelton for two hours, who combined to make me hanker for the halcyon days of Elton Welsby and Jim Rosenthal.

So, the forward book is back over £3,000 again. Some of that comes to fruition or disappointment this weekend with Saracens tonight, Mukhadram and Morandi tomorrow, Tampa Bay on Sunday and all the usual progress from (and yes I have counted them) upwards of 40 poisitions ue to see action this weekend

Some of it stretches to June next year, when England march to World Cup glory after we've forgotten to lay the 33-1 off  

£3,000 of forward bets?

Jeez, we really need, I think, to put a cap on the sum we invest in forward bets, that is a big number tied up.

Very important for Fred as a whole, of course, that we have a good forward book, that's half the fun, & profit, but that figure has no upper ceiling at present, & who knows how high it could go if left unchecked, or how far into the future it may stretch. Fred wont be here indefinitely, or at least, I wont. 

As a starting point for debate, can I suggest a figure of £3,000, or £3,500? Or at least some formula to manage it.

Views please.

It just makes no sense not to control it.

And wow @ 40 of our positions in play this weekend! Incred.  

Some of made this point before, I don't think we should be committing max bets at short odds for long terms.  I don't deliberately do this with my own money, so not sure thread should.  If you have more money off thread, and the thread money isn't such a big part of that it is different.

I think the theoretical bank is about 4k, so 3k looks too much.  Maybe set it at 50% of the total bank, as we ste theoretically sat with a usable bank of just over 1k today*.  In real life I would know I have only 1k left and would be having to close stuff.  I am definitely not suggesting we do this, it is something you should only do if strictly needed.  We will have to leave it until after the NFL season has finished, as we have a lot tied up there.  I definitely think you should be able to make exceptions though, if something comes up that just looks like massive value (say Jeff's Natalie bet on SCD) then we can, and should, still just go for it.

Doobs

* the forward book gets overstated a bit because of the free bets. 

[tikay]

Daily Report

Loss on Month £13.69

Outstanding Bets £3018.66

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=30

A loss of £40.42 yesterday. As we have heard, the referee in the Macclesfield-Southport game was a quiet sort and the game passed off without incident. Worse than the loss, in the interests of sweating the bet I had to endure Mark Clemmit and Helen Skelton for two hours, who combined to make me hanker for the halcyon days of Elton Welsby and Jim Rosenthal.

So, the forward book is back over £3,000 again. Some of that comes to fruition or disappointment this weekend with Saracens tonight, Mukhadram and Morandi tomorrow, Tampa Bay on Sunday and all the usual progress from (and yes I have counted them) upwards of 40 poisitions ue to see action this weekend

Some of it stretches to June next year, when England march to World Cup glory after we've forgotten to lay the 33-1 off  

£3,000 of forward bets?

Jeez, we really need, I think, to put a cap on the sum we invest in forward bets, that is a big number tied up.

Very important for Fred as a whole, of course, that we have a good forward book, that's half the fun, & profit, but that figure has no upper ceiling at present, & who knows how high it could go if left unchecked, or how far into the future it may stretch. Fred wont be here indefinitely, or at least, I wont. 

As a starting point for debate, can I suggest a figure of £3,000, or £3,500? Or at least some formula to manage it.

Views please.

It just makes no sense not to control it.

And wow @ 40 of our positions in play this weekend! Incred.  

Some of made this point before, I don't think we should be committing max bets at short odds for long terms.  I don't deliberately do this with my own money, so not sure thread should.  If you have more money off thread, and the thread money isn't such a big part of that it is different.

I think the theoretical bank is about 4k, so 3k looks too much.  Maybe set it at 50% of the total bank, as we ste theoretically sat with a usable bank of just over 1k today*.  In real life I would know I have only 1k left and would be having to close stuff.  I am definitely not suggesting we do this, it is something you should only do if strictly needed.  We will have to leave it until after the NFL season has finished, as we have a lot tied up there.  I definitely think you should be able to make exceptions though, if something comes up that just looks like massive value (say Jeff's Natalie bet on SCD) then we can, and should, still just go for it.

Doobs

* the forward book gets overstated a bit because of the free bets. 

Agree largely with that. I'd prefer not to install hard & fast Rules, common-sense works better, & there'll always be room for a good value forward bet, no point beng here otherwise.

I think the subject arose in my mind when I saw several long odds on shots being suggested for the 2014 World Cup. That just makes no sense to me at all, 9 months for a 1/3 shot.

The NFL book sits comfortably with me, as the season is so short, & anyway, we do very well @ NFL.

In truth, I like all the forward stuff, but "upward drift" could see it soon rise to £4,000, £5,000, & so on.

I don't need to cull it, & I won't, but I do think good discipline is important. 

[TightEnd]

I prefer to see the long term book full of longer priced sweats that give flexibility to trade/close at a profit down the line if need be

By and large ours are that, and it is good for the thread to have these long term sweats that we can follow

I actually agreed with almost all of Pleno's points, and would have bet exactly the same way as he suggested on them, if I was forced to

It was just 1/3 for nine months is an opportunity cost of money thing. The aim must be to turn over the £100 that might have been tied up in the 1/3 shot many times at 4% ROI such that the net return on that £100 will exceed the £33.33 you'd earn next June if you are right - and of course sometimes due to injury etc the £100 will be wrong

I do think therefore there was a case for some of the longer term prices he highlighted - only using his post as the most recent example of this

[tikay]

I prefer to see the long term book full of longer priced sweats that give flexibility to trade/close at a profit down the line if need be

By and large ours are that, and it is good for the thread to have these long term sweats that we can follow

I actually agreed with almost all of Pleno's points, and would have bet exactly the same way as he suggested on them, if I was forced to

It was just 1/3 for nine months is an opportunity cost of money thing. The aim must be to turn over the £100 that might have been tied up in the 1/3 shot many times at 4% ROI such that the net return on that £100 will exceed the £33.33 you'd earn next June if you are right - and of course sometimes due to injury etc the £100 will be wrong

I do think therefore there was a case for some of the longer term prices he highlighted - only using his post as the most recent example of this

Yes yes, our forward book IS good, I believe.

I was not singling out Plinop as such, but his Post prompted the thought train, & I agree, we ought to look at some of them, especially the longer prices. I'd not do the 1/3 things in a million years, no matter how many folks told me the bet was good, it makes no sense for the reasons you explained.

To those who follow football with enthusiasm (not me, really), the World Cup is such a big thing, & generates huge excitement, see the 94 posts that our beloved Ant made about his hero Zaha, the Man U reserve team player.

I'll try & look out Plinop's Post, & we'll have a look at the realistic ones.

[The Camel]

This next ROI manager thingie.

Noel King is down to 4/1 with Betunfair.

While the exchange has detailed rules about when they settle, the Sportsbook doesn't.

Are we sure they have the same rules?

[horseplayer]

This next ROI manager thingie.

Noel King is down to 4/1 with Betunfair.

While the exchange has detailed rules about when they settle, the Sportsbook doesn't.

Are we sure they have the same rules?

I was told by somebody i respect he has checked that they do

I did not have time to check yesterday before posting

[dino1980]

This next ROI manager thingie.

Noel King is down to 4/1 with Betunfair.

While the exchange has detailed rules about when they settle, the Sportsbook doesn't.

Are we sure they have the same rules?

I was told by somebody i respect he has checked that they do

I did not have time to check yesterday before posting

I'm on Horsey's tip but after getting on a mate pointed me in the direction of this: http://www.theguardian.com/football/blog/2013/oct/16/republic-of-ireland-new-manager-noel-king

First par for those who don't want to/can't be bothered to click: "Noel King came, he presided over one defeat and one victory, and then he left. Never to be allowed in the Aviva Stadium dugouts again."

[Tal]

Dancing rain is pregnant and the foal will be for sale in December. The father is Frankel.

Can we find some good bets please between now and then, so that this can be Fred's horse going forward?

Thanks in advance.

Frankel has covered 133 mares and 126 are still pregnant. £125,000 a successful visit. He was sometimes called into action three times a day. Don't quote me on this, but something tells me Prince Khalid Abdullah might have made a profit out of Frankel.

[horseplayer]

This next ROI manager thingie.

Noel King is down to 4/1 with Betunfair.

While the exchange has detailed rules about when they settle, the Sportsbook doesn't.

Are we sure they have the same rules?

I was told by somebody i respect he has checked that they do

I did not have time to check yesterday before posting

I'm on Horsey's tip but after getting on a mate pointed me in the direction of this: http://www.theguardian.com/football/blog/2013/oct/16/republic-of-ireland-new-manager-noel-king

First par for those who don't want to/can't be bothered to click: "Noel King came, he presided over one defeat and one victory, and then he left. Never to be allowed in the Aviva Stadium dugouts again."

i did read that can take it lots of ways really

Ray Houghton, who was part of the committee that deliberated for more than 100 days before Trapattoni was appointed is in charge again

A positive

A provisional date has been set for November 1st for the appointment

A negative

[horseplayer]

in further news

Ladbrokes upto £25 as a free bet if Cirrus wins tommorow for those who can

[Skippy]

Frankel has covered 133 mares and 126 are still pregnant. £125,000 a successful visit. He was sometimes called into action three times a day. Don't quote me on this, but something tells me Prince Khalid Abdullah might have made a profit out of Frankel.

It'll be a lot more if the offspring turn out to be any good.

[aaron1867]

There must be some very long thinking by the odds compiliers for the World Cup.

Spain are better than Germany, Germany shorter priced. Then Switzerland who are apparently one of the top teams at 150-1, they are going to be a top seed too? The one that stands out must be Croatia though at 250-1, there is hardly any difference between the two teams, wuld be happy to back this all night long, maybe e/w.

Absolutely no thought on England. We probably have to hope to be in a group With the Swiss or Belguim, imo

e/w is 1/2....

[Tal]

Frankel has covered 133 mares and 126 are still pregnant. £125,000 a successful visit. He was sometimes called into action three times a day. Don't quote me on this, but something tells me Prince Khalid Abdullah might have made a profit out of Frankel.

It'll be a lot more if the offspring turn out to be any good.

Absolutely. 126 x £125k though...