Tips for Tikay

[Snowball]

Morning Mr T.

Today Exeter travel to Glasgow, who are top of the Rabpro12 league with a 5-0 record. However the Rabpro league is nothing like as competitive as the Premiership. When the fixtures were announced I highlighted this fixture as Exeter's key to getting out of the qualifying group. They have had away victories over London Irish and Gloucester and the first half last week against Cardiff showed they can up the intensity needed in this competition. They will be buoyed by Cardiff's win yesterday over Toulon, who beat Glasgow by 40 points last week, and they will really like they chances today.

Last season we supported Exeter when the won at Llanelli and I think they will do so today. Expect a low scoring game but with Exeter edging it.

Suggest £20 Exeter @ 5/2 with Betfred.

Toulon beat Glasgow by 23 points??

[Nico29]

Possible horse suggestions that fit into free bet criteria between 6-1ish and 10-1 and are best priced/sim to betfair exchange.

315 Naas-Tobann@7-1-best priced third fav with a race where half the field look to be making up the numbers, bpg too of crse.

345 Naas-Badgerfort@6-1-bar the odds on fav this is some way clear of the rest in the betting+bpg.

350 Kempton-Firm Order@9-1-is best priced and we get bpg+it looks a really wide open race-this nag has finished seecond twice in a row, third time lucky?

455-Naas-Marchase Marconi@11-2-Prob my fav as it's v close to exchange, an obrien horse that is cleearly v decent and cld be value due to the fav being a 'name' horse+BPG.

To be honest my advice would be to wait and see if benteke is playing and if he is back him@6-1 for the first goal. Man is a beast and I can see him causing spurs all sorts of problems. Failing that and if we don't like the 1-1 much i'd go with the last named horse in what is sure to be a cracking race.

So my advice wld be to bk benteke if you have time to see if he's playing, if not and you don't like the horses go with the 1-1 score@6-1.

Obv ignore all this if u find something better.

Gl.

[tikay]

Thanks Dom, all noted.

Quite like the Benteke one, he can be very good against a porous defence.

[Tal]

Thanks Dom, all noted.

Quite like the Benteke one, he can be very good against a porous defence.

Betfair sportsbook is also best price Defoe to score 2 or more at 10/1

[tikay]

Thanks Dom, all noted.

Quite like the Benteke one, he can be very good against a porous defence.

Betfair sportsbook is also best price Defoe to score 2 or more at 10/1

Today, or all season?

[millidonk]

Betfred: Ahead of another weekend of bone-crunching NFL action, Betfred are offering Double Delight on the Cincinnati Bengals @ Detroit Lions and Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs matches.

If your player scores the first touchdown of the match and then goes on to score another, we will double your first touchdown scorer price.

How often do players score 2+ TDs? Is there any merit in this or is it just a marketing ploy to get ice creams like me to bet? failing that, anyone got any fancies.

[TightEnd]

Betfred: Ahead of another weekend of bone-crunching NFL action, Betfred are offering Double Delight on the Cincinnati Bengals @ Detroit Lions and Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs matches.

If your player scores the first touchdown of the match and then goes on to score another, we will double your first touchdown scorer price.

How often do players score 2+ TDs? Is there any merit in this or is it just a marketing ploy to get ice creams like me to bet? failing that, anyone got any fancies.

Complete ice cream bet

its hard enough to pick a first touchdown scorer (5-1 the field with probably 5+ players per team that are realistic prospects to do it) let alone for someone to score 2. It happens, but.....

It is particularly unlikely in these games because you have three top defenses, maybe even all four, so the odds of it happening compared to a shootout type game are much lower 

[Tal]

Betfred: Ahead of another weekend of bone-crunching NFL action, Betfred are offering Double Delight on the Cincinnati Bengals @ Detroit Lions and Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs matches.

If your player scores the first touchdown of the match and then goes on to score another, we will double your first touchdown scorer price.

How often do players score 2+ TDs? Is there any merit in this or is it just a marketing ploy to get ice creams like me to bet? failing that, anyone got any fancies.

Suspect it's the usual trick of dropping the price.

AJ Green would be one of the obvious choices and he's 6/1 first TD when the best price is 8/1

A grown up will come shortly and give a better answer.


Edit: done

[TightEnd]

Thanks Dom, all noted.

Quite like the Benteke one, he can be very good against a porous defence.

He can be, but generally I think Villa are a better team on the counter, with Agbon and Weiman off Benteke breaking at pace (Villa have more away wins under Lamber than they do home wins since Lambert joined)

Tottenham don't have a porous defence, granted 0-3 at home to West Ham suggests they do, but the last three away games have all been 1-0 either way 

[millidonk]

Nice one Tightamous and Talc. I will avoid that then and stick to punting the "tips" that are txt to me.

[redarmi]

Betfred: Ahead of another weekend of bone-crunching NFL action, Betfred are offering Double Delight on the Cincinnati Bengals @ Detroit Lions and Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs matches.

If your player scores the first touchdown of the match and then goes on to score another, we will double your first touchdown scorer price.

How often do players score 2+ TDs? Is there any merit in this or is it just a marketing ploy to get ice creams like me to bet? failing that, anyone got any fancies.

Suspect it's the usual trick of dropping the price.

AJ Green would be one of the obvious choices and he's 6/1 first TD when the best price is 8/1

A grown up will come shortly and give a better answer.


Edit: done

Yeah basically this.  You are giving up price equity to pay for it and I'm not sure it is worth it.  I wouldn't mind Calvin Johnson but all told I think I would rather tjust bet at 8-1 rather than 6-1 with this offer.

[Marky147]

Nice one Tightamous and Talc. I will avoid that then and stick to punting the "tips" that are txt to me.

Check with Oddschecker and bet it with Paddy, who offer the same promo on every game.

You need to be researching a little though, to look for high scoring games with players who are likely candidates for multiple scores.

Quite often they have been best price on some of the more likely candidates too.

[tikay]

Thanks Dom, all noted.

Quite like the Benteke one, he can be very good against a porous defence.

He can be, but generally I think Villa are a better team on the counter, with Agbon and Weiman off Benteke breaking at pace (Villa have more away wins under Lamber than they do home wins since Lambert joined)

Tottenham don't have a porous defence, granted 0-3 at home to West Ham suggests they do, but the last three away games have all been 1-0 either way 

Sorry Rich, I was just seeing if we still had any Spurs fans here after that West Ham debacle. Man C showed yesterday how awful they are.....

[JaffaCake]

Anyone who has been on who goes in strictly tonight, u can tell by looking at oddschecker on the outright market, as the bookies stop taking bets to in on the person who is out, as it as recorded last night. I guess I don't put the result here for fear of ruining tals sunday, tho this is a betting thread!

[redarmi]

Nice one Tightamous and Talc. I will avoid that then and stick to punting the "tips" that are txt to me.

Check with Oddschecker and bet it with Paddy, who offer the same promo on every game.

You need to be researching a little though, to look for high scoring games with players who are likely candidates for multiple scores.

Quite often they have been best price on some of the more likely candidates too.

Yeah Paddy seem to be keen to be best priced about first TD scorers and they are very often good value.  I have a sneaking suspicion that the first TD market is a classic case of favourite-longshot bias where bookies price the favourites at value or very close to value prices because to maintain their book percentages they put too much margin the rags because they are petrified of laying a 66-1 shot.  Literally the only time I ever make anyone at 16/1+ value is if a first choice player is a late injury and the market hasn't adjusted.  I haven't and don't do it but it wouldn't amaze me if you could bet every favourite and make a small profit over the course of a season.  Its not as random as everyone thinks and a lot of it comes down to the playcalling of the coaches and they just don't, for example, give the ball to a 3rd string running back in a 2nd and goal situation even when often it might be the right thing to do.