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Betting Tips and Sport Discussion
Tips for Tikay
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Topic: Tips for Tikay (Read 16575798 times)
a.sparrow
Sr. Member
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Posts: 674
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #58185 on:
October 31, 2013, 08:37:02 PM »
Quote from: The Camel on October 31, 2013, 08:31:43 PM
Quote from: Doobs on October 31, 2013, 08:27:30 PM
Quote from: The Camel on October 31, 2013, 08:22:49 PM
Big moves in the ROI managers market..
McCarthy just been matched at 29/1 which might be bad news especially as O'Neill has shortened to 1/2ish.
But intriguingly Noel King has found some support too into about 4/1
Curiouser and curiouser.
Ipswich announced earlier they had been no approach for McCarthy.
As I speculated earlier, seems like there is no rush to appoint a manager until the summer anyway.
After Poland, they might have one more meaningless friendly in the New Year before some pre WC friendlies, which would be the perfect time for a new manager to evaluate his squad before the Euro qualifiers in the Autumn.
If they want McCarthy, leaving it to the summer to appoint him makes sense.
Worth a dollar at 30/1 surely?
I thought the main edge horsey had for this bet was that the market settles after someone has been in charge for 3 games. Therefore if McCarthy does get appointed in the summer it will be after the 3rd and final game to land the King bet, then the market closes, unless betfair want to pay out twice? No bookies paying 30/1 as far as i can see so backing him at big odds on betfair assuming the market closes after King's third game incharge when they pay out for Fred's bet seems fairly pointless.
Edit: Quick draw Marky beat me to it.
«
Last Edit: October 31, 2013, 08:39:08 PM by a.sparrow
»
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doubleup
Hero Member
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Posts: 7132
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #58186 on:
October 31, 2013, 08:37:13 PM »
http://www.independent.ie/sport/republic-of-ireland-to-face-latvia-in-friendly-on-november-15-29715906.html
This article indicates that the FAI board are meeting on Monday to consider who to approach.
Camel - if they "wait to the summer" the market is settled with King as winner.
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The Camel
Hero Member
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Posts: 17076
Under my tree, being a troll.
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #58187 on:
October 31, 2013, 08:42:37 PM »
Quote from: Marky147 on October 31, 2013, 08:36:48 PM
Quote from: The Camel on October 31, 2013, 08:31:43 PM
Quote from: Doobs on October 31, 2013, 08:27:30 PM
Quote from: The Camel on October 31, 2013, 08:22:49 PM
Big moves in the ROI managers market..
McCarthy just been matched at 29/1 which might be bad news especially as O'Neill has shortened to 1/2ish.
But intriguingly Noel King has found some support too into about 4/1
Curiouser and curiouser.
Ipswich announced earlier they had been no approach for McCarthy.
As I speculated earlier, seems like there is no rush to appoint a manager until the summer anyway.
After Poland, they might have one more meaningless friendly in the New Year before some pre WC friendlies, which would be the perfect time for a new manager to evaluate his squad before the Euro qualifiers in the Autumn.
If they want McCarthy, leaving it to the summer to appoint him makes sense.
Worth a dollar at 30/1 surely?
Does the Betfair market not close if King is still in charge on November 15th?
You can get 7/1 with Paddy on McCarthy though, and their market won't close until King has had 10 games, or their is an appointment.
The alcohol from tft bash must still be coursing through my veins.
I knew all this, but temporarily forgot it! It's the reason I backed King in the first place!
McCarthy at 7/1? Tempting for sure.
But think I'd want double figures.
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The Camel
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Posts: 17076
Under my tree, being a troll.
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #58188 on:
October 31, 2013, 08:45:00 PM »
Quote from: doubleup on October 31, 2013, 08:37:13 PM
http://www.independent.ie/sport/republic-of-ireland-to-face-latvia-in-friendly-on-november-15-29715906.html
This article indicates that the FAI board are meeting on Monday to consider who to approach.
Camel - if they "wait to the summer" the market is settled with King as winner.
Thanks for that link Mr Double.
Hopefully O'Neill will be frying other fish for the next fortnight.
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Congratulations to the 2012 League Champion - Stapleton Atheists
"Keith The Camel, a true champion!" - Brent Horner 30th December 2012
"I dont think you're a wanker Keith" David Nicholson 4th March 2013
Marky147
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Posts: 22635
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #58189 on:
October 31, 2013, 08:49:29 PM »
MON has gone through the floor today though, so I would probably wait until Mick is up around 20/1, and hope that they leave King there for the next few months.
Would be pretty nice to hammer the bookies twice for the same job
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Tal
Hero Member
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Posts: 24288
"He's always at it!"
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #58190 on:
October 31, 2013, 09:12:34 PM »
Quote from: Bad Beat on October 31, 2013, 06:16:43 PM
This is for Tal...
http://www.pinnaclesports.com/online-betting-articles/10-2013/world-chess-championship-betting.aspx?ito=twitter
That's a really interesting piece. Not sure who wrote it (I think it will be an 'outsider', as there are one or two inaccuracies but nothing that would affect the tenor of the article), but it sets the scene fabulously.
It's a huge thing for chess to have this young man playing for the world title and the biggest chess match since Kramnik dethroned Kasparov.
The thing that keeps being mentioned is that the world championship isn't like a tournament; you play the same guy every day, over and over again. That is something Anand has a huge edge in, because Carlsen has effectively never played in that format (he's had a few double round comps and a few exhibition comps, but that's like saying you're ready for a World Cup penalty shootout because you had practiced with your little brother playing FIFA)
I'm really not worried about Anand tiring. He knows how to keep games tight and I would expect a lot of comfortable draws for Anand, particularly with White.
Carlsen is the better player today and will have spent the last few weeks working hard on his opening theory. Anand has a far deeper knowledge of openings, whereas Carlsen is more of a "feel" player. That's a glib assessment, but you get the idea.
The big difference with matchplay chess is that you can work a lot deeper on openings and are preparing for one guy and one style of play. People don't go to comps having prepared for Carlsen; they prepare for everyone else and hope to accumulate enough points such that a draw against him is good enough to win the tournament. Now there is a guy sitting opposite who has spent three months focusing on his every move, nuance and weakness.
Imagine two golfers playing each other and one has never played matchplay before. Even if he is a 2005 Tiger Woods, if the other guy is the defending Matchplay champ and has a good record in that format, you have to give some ground to the underdog.
Carlsen seems superhuman at times. That is only said once every few generations in chess. Kasparov, Alekhine and Morphy arguably the three most likely (a huge debate in chess circles to follow elsewhere I'm sure).
The prices are probably about right. I'm no expert in that stuff. But I'm really excited about the match itself. If Carlsen wins a couple early on, you can't see Anand pegging him back, but the longer it stays without ground being ceded, the more the pressure will be felt and the harder it will be for the favourite.
Carlsen's first name is Magnus, meaning
The Great One
. How prophetic his parents were.
Er...sorry...that was rather a waffle...Nice article, BadBeat. Ta.
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"You must take your opponent into a deep, dark forest, where 2+2=5, and the path leading out is only wide enough for one"
JaffaCake
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Posts: 1884
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #58191 on:
October 31, 2013, 09:28:15 PM »
Quote from: JoeBeevers on October 31, 2013, 07:37:22 PM
Quote from: JaffaCake on October 31, 2013, 05:28:11 PM
Sorry I was excited. MCW is Michael Carter-Williams, rookie for Philadelphia 76ers. He made his debut yesterday in a tevelvised game against Miami, obv the best team.
He scored 22 points, had 12 assists, nine steals (a record in a first game and the joint most ever by a 76er and seven rebounds. Hard to put into context but Magic Johnson says he's gonna win Rookie of the Year now after watching that game, lots of places calling it the best debut in years.
Last year Damian Lillard, also a point guard, won rookie of the year with averages of 19 points, 6.1 assists, 3.1 rebounds, not sure on steals, probably about 1.5, the best in the league is always around 3 per game so u can see that was freakishly good. Just google Michael Carter-Williams and read some of the superlatives being used.
Bet is good because he's on a terrible team and has stated his aim is to win rookie of the year. He's 6'6, pretty big for a PG (they're always the shortest on team) and his long arms means he'll get plenty of steals and some blocks, all bonuses when his first job is assists then points.
Fred backed him at 14/1 I think, recommend was at 16s possibly, told u on Saturday he was the one to press having watched a lot of pre-season. On the flip side, it looks like our other 14/1 shot Olynyk, who was actually backed into 7/1 before the off, is gonna have to fight for court time so defo won't set the world on fire yet, might take him a while to make his mark at Boston.
As an aside, there's defo a few ricks in the player markets in the early season, lots of lazy bookies just using career or last season averages to set lines, when some players are on new teams or have new roles where they're playing a different game. Watch this space
Hi Jeff,
If you hadn't taken 14s and the market just went up would you consider 7/1 MCW a bet?
Hi mate, at this minute yeh I think I probs would. I think Oladipo of Orlando is the real danger, but that's why he's favourite or close to. Noone else has really shone in the first games, quite a lot of them haven't really played. The point with both is that their teams are terrible so both will start every game.
Remember tho that being bad this season is an aim for some, as the next draft is loaded with star players, best for a decade or more, so that may have some influence later in the season (as the more u lose the better chance u have of getting the top picks at the loaded draft). The fact MCW has said he wants to win it is really interesting tho, not sure I'd like it in a team game saying his aim is the individual award but shows he's defo in the market and a runner, and his stats against Miami, who are after all the best, were awesome
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Snowball
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 1455
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #58192 on:
October 31, 2013, 09:59:15 PM »
Fwiw, I have been told from a Senior Player in the Ireland squad that they aren't rushing into an appointment.
Hopefully for Fred backers it true.
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TheDazzler
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 1481
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #58193 on:
October 31, 2013, 10:40:39 PM »
Quote from: Snowball on October 31, 2013, 09:59:15 PM
Fwiw, I have been told from a Senior Player in the Ireland squad that they aren't rushing into an appointment.
Hopefully for Fred backers it true.
There is a financial consideration too. Trappatoni was on 2 million euros per year. Businessman Denis O'Brien stumped up half of that and has indicated he will do the same for the next guy but that is still a lot of money for the FAI to pay, particularly with no World Cup money coming and our ranking plummeting.
I'd imagine if Martin O'Neill wants the job, he'll want it now to start getting paid for basically doing nothing until the summer.
If Mick McCarthy gets it, it would be best for him to get it in the summer as he'll presumably want to finish the season with Ipswich. And Ireland would also have to pay Ipswich compensation for the remainer of his contract.
Apparently McCarthy did have a clause that he could leave to take the Ireland job for free if it became available but that clause expired earlier in the summer.
All that leads me to think that King is very likely to take charge of the upcoming friendlies and that McCarthy would be interested in the job, probably in the summer.
But if MON is being quoted at 1/2 and that is significant money, then maybe there are 'people in the know'?
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JaffaCake
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Posts: 1884
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #58194 on:
October 31, 2013, 11:31:48 PM »
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/24761102
did we know this? Is it better that the next game is sooner?
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horseplayer
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Posts: 10314
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #58195 on:
October 31, 2013, 11:36:36 PM »
Thanks jeff meant to post that earlier got waylaid with breeders stuff
It is good news but it probably wont matter anyway as the money last night and today suggests MON may be appointed before those games.
Cant really see a scenario were MON waits for the summer now, seems no point really. The fact King remains stable on betfair is finally a realisation that if nobody can be agreed then he will be the winner according to betfair anyway.
Personally King wins me a nice amount for me and MON a smallish one.
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MereNovice
Gamesmaster
Hero Member
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Posts: 9901
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #58196 on:
November 01, 2013, 12:12:32 AM »
October 2013 Figures
Closed bets: 142
Amount wagered: £4,642.10
Profit/loss:
£516.45
ROI:
11.13%
Number of "sports" bet on: 14
Most popular: Horses (44), Football (37), NFL (14).
Most profitable: NFL (£246.77), Football (£221.36), Cycling (£208.12)
Least profitable: Cricket (-£81.11), Baseball (-£80.00), Tennis (-£69.00)
Number of tipsters: 32 including
6
new tipsters.
Overall statistics (since February 2012)
Total closed bets: 2,435
Amount wagered: £80,504.26
Profit/loss:
£3,747.73
ROI:
4.66%
Number of "sports" bet on: 28
Most popular: Football (614), Horses(584), Golf (222), Cricket(171).
Most and least profitable sports (based on aggregate profit/loss) are:
Sport Profit Amt Bet ROI No.
Horses 2,140.43 20,651.97 10.36 584
Football 1,768.63 20,065.95 8.81 614
NFL 828.71 4,999.83 16.57 116
...
Formula1 -383.00 824.00 -46.48 31
Golf -990.85 6,197.32 -15.99 222
Basketball -1,048.12 2,763.66 -37.93 61
The complete list is here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=4
Total number of tipsters: 138
Number of different bookies/exchanges/agents: 35
Most and least profitable bookies (based on aggregate profit/loss) are:
Bookie Profit Amt Bet ROI No.
BoyleSports 1,678.90 3,946.45 42.54 96
WilliamHill 1,361.96 12,534.58 10.87 396
BetVictor 1,137.80 11,103.00 10.25 344
...
PaddyPower -513.46 6,363.62 -8.07 258
BetFred -573.62 4,972.00 -11.54 158
Betfair -789.43 9,850.65 -8.01 199
The complete list is here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=7
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Marky147
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Posts: 22635
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #58197 on:
November 01, 2013, 12:19:04 AM »
Evening Mere, hope you're well
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Marky147
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 22635
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #58198 on:
November 01, 2013, 12:19:52 AM »
Quote from: horseplayer on October 31, 2013, 11:36:36 PM
Thanks jeff meant to post that earlier got waylaid with breeders stuff
It is good news but it probably wont matter anyway as the money last night and today suggests MON may be appointed before those games.
Cant really see a scenario were MON waits for the summer now, seems no point really. The fact King remains stable on betfair is finally a realisation that if nobody can be agreed then he will be the winner according to betfair anyway.
Personally King wins me a nice amount for me and MON a smallish one.
Bit of luck he is going to the US for thanksgiving, so lets King crack on with the friendlies.
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BigAdz
Hero Member
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Posts: 8140
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #58199 on:
November 01, 2013, 08:09:29 AM »
Golf update.
Our boy is top in birdies. Sadly he is also top in bogeys.....
In 11th after 2 rounds posting a one under par round, while most around him were burning it up. Plenty of time yet.
In Challenge Tour, Shiv only just started round 2, but currently in second.
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Good evenink. I wish I had a girlfriend.......
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