Longy
Professional Hotel Locator.
Learning Centre Group
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Posts: 10040
Go Ducks!
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« Reply #58665 on: November 06, 2013, 01:28:38 PM » |
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Tal
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« Reply #58666 on: November 06, 2013, 01:35:24 PM » |
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We should stop this before the first person comes on to say "I've just logged on for the first time in a couple of days and have had to wade through eighteen pages of blooming cricket without a single bet being discussed..ra ra...not good enough...ra ra..."
Unless...we run a book on who that first person would be...?
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"You must take your opponent into a deep, dark forest, where 2+2=5, and the path leading out is only wide enough for one"
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Longy
Professional Hotel Locator.
Learning Centre Group
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 10040
Go Ducks!
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« Reply #58667 on: November 06, 2013, 01:39:50 PM » |
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If they don't like cricket ban them!
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BorntoBubble
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« Reply #58668 on: November 06, 2013, 01:47:54 PM » |
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If they don't like cricket ban them!
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horseplayer
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« Reply #58669 on: November 06, 2013, 01:49:08 PM » |
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I cant get my head around this bet but have a "feeling" the price is to big
What price would you make no goal to be scored in the first 5 minutes of the champions league games tonight?
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tikay
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« Reply #58670 on: November 06, 2013, 01:55:00 PM » |
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I cant get my head around this bet but have a "feeling" the price is to big
What price would you make no goal to be scored in the first 5 minutes of the champions league games tonight?
I've just seen that price - seems very high to me, just on gut feel. Guess there must be a maths-based solution, but I was initially expecting around 1/2 for "NO". How wrong could I be?! |
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All details of the 2016 Vegas Staking Adventure can be found via this link - http://bit.ly/1pdQZDY (copyright Anthony James Kendall, 2016). |
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horseplayer
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« Reply #58671 on: November 06, 2013, 01:58:09 PM » |
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they had it last night as well of course it lost but thats irrelevant
Be handy if somebody could quantify it but on feel i had the prices the other way round?
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horseplayer
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« Reply #58673 on: November 06, 2013, 02:08:32 PM » |
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are old friend bfair sportsbook offer 5/4 no which is were i saw it |
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Doobs
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« Reply #58674 on: November 06, 2013, 02:25:23 PM » |
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I don't get what you are seeing. The only one I see is a Betfair market, is that it? Average goals per game 2.75. Minutes per goal = 34 (assuming 3 minutes injury time). Chance of goal in first 5 minutes = .148. This is very rough as some games will have 2 goals in 1 5 minute period. It is probably a bit too high as the first 5 minutes are likely cagey. (1-.148)^8 = .278. So 73% chance of a goal in one of the games, assuming all the above. This is likely to be too high, but don't think it can be too far out that 2.1 no goals is right. 1/2 no goal looks terrible! The maths suggests strongly that yes is the way forward. I have laid all the 2.1 on offer no goals  |
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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The Camel
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« Reply #58675 on: November 06, 2013, 02:25:45 PM » |
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Incredible video. They breed 'em tough up here |
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Congratulations to the 2012 League Champion - Stapleton Atheists
"Keith The Camel, a true champion!" - Brent Horner 30th December 2012
"I dont think you're a wanker Keith" David Nicholson 4th March 2013
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The Camel
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« Reply #58676 on: November 06, 2013, 02:26:37 PM » |
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Brian Close is 82!
Makes me feel ancient, I remember him in his pomp.
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Congratulations to the 2012 League Champion - Stapleton Atheists
"Keith The Camel, a true champion!" - Brent Horner 30th December 2012
"I dont think you're a wanker Keith" David Nicholson 4th March 2013
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Doobs
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« Reply #58677 on: November 06, 2013, 02:38:44 PM » |
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I don't get what you are seeing. The only one I see is a Betfair market, is that it? Average goals per game 2.75. Minutes per goal = 34 (assuming 3 minutes injury time). Chance of goal in first 5 minutes = .148. This is very rough as some games will have 2 goals in 1 5 minute period. It is probably a bit too high as the first 5 minutes are likely cagey. (1-.148)^8 = .278. So 73% chance of a goal in one of the games, assuming all the above. This is likely to be too high, but don't think it can be too far out that 2.1 no goals is right. 1/2 no goal looks terrible! The maths suggests strongly that yes is the way forward. I have laid all the 2.1 on offer no goals How very strange. Each time I put the money in, the price pops straight back up again. Somebody's bot is convinced 2.1 is not a lay! |
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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Dubai
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« Reply #58678 on: November 06, 2013, 02:45:18 PM » |
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Goal distribution isn't quite as clear cut as you suggest plus an obvious key point its only for 7.45 games which means only 7 games as Zenit kick off earlier.
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Doobs
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« Reply #58679 on: November 06, 2013, 03:03:07 PM » |
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Goal distribution isn't quite as clear cut as you suggest plus an obvious key point its only for 7.45 games which means only 7 games as Zenit kick off earlier.
I didn't suggest it was clear cut, I suggested the first five minutes were likely to be cagey, and I thought it likely I was overestimating the chance. I always expect that somebody on Betfair has usually got a better model than me these days. I should also have checked for a Tikay misclick on the number of games. Either way, I don't think there is a resounding case for no. |
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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