Tips for Tikay

[RickBFA]

Do any of you have a view on Watford at Middlesborough?

I appreciate Watford have had a couple of poor results but they are now 19/10 with BV.

Three weeks ago they would have been around 11/10.

19/10 looks like a bit of value to me.

Three weeks ago Mowbray was chewing a wasp on the sidelines and Watford were in form. Neither now apply

I get the point though, 19/10 is a big price on the face of it

I think it should be remembered that Middlesborough's last 2 home wins were against Yeovil and Doncaster. Both relegation candidates.

Watford even out of form recently are not Yeovil or Donny.

I think £15 on Watford at 19/10 is a bet I'd suggest.

[horseplayer]

quick quiz

Name this player who should be in his prime for the world cup, instead is a depressive alcoholic

[tikay]

1 Scott -10
2= Fowler -7
6= Leishman -5

Crikey, excellent trio of selections, well done Gents.

[TightEnd]

My NFL Column this week talks about the Bengals. We are well placed, but there are clouds on the horizon due to injuries

"Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens

Every team is dealing with injuries at this point in the season, but the Bengals have been hit with huge injury problems.

All-Pro defensive tackle Geno Atkins went down with a season-ending ACL injury last week to become the fourth defensive starter (along with No. 1 corner Leon Hall, safety Taylor Mays and Defensive End Robert Geathers) to land on the Injured Reserve. Starting middle linebacker Rey Maualuga and Andy Dalton’s blind-side Andrew Whitworth missed last week’s game and will both probably be on the sidelines again this Sunday when the Bengals visit the Ravens.

That said, the Bengals are in a relatively comfortable place in the AFC North standings. They’re 6-3, and the rest of the division — Browns (4-5), Ravens (3-5) and Steelers (2-6) — is a mess. However, a loss on Sunday might open the door for Baltimore to sneak back into the race, especially with a second Bengals/Ravens game on the last game of the season.

The biggest thing working against that potential Ravens revival? They’re just not that good this season. Their biggest issue is the running game which  has resulted in Baltimore averaging a league-low 2.78 yards a carry this year However all the indications are that Ray Rice is finally healthy and ready to have a far more effective second half of the season. With Atkins missing, the stars are aligned for this to begin on Sunday

To see the Ravens priced as 2 point underdogs on the spread to a Bengals team so beat up is an opportunity. The Ravens need to win badly, they are at home and the spread offered reflects the risks"

http://www.betpal.com/nfl-week-ten-betting-preview

[tikay]

I have a small one for you - can we back the old "no goalscorer" option @ 10/1 in the Norwich v West Ham game with BetVictor?

Neither side can score for toffee, the Hammers have already had 3 or 4 0-0 results this year and don't really let any in.  Slight concern would be Norwich leaking one or two but at the price I reckon we'd swerve that often enough (or bink an own goal).

Maybe go for £5 or £10 (i'll be doing similar personally)

Morning, & thanks.

Not sure the highlighted part tells us anything we don't know, or is not in the price.

Is 10/1 really an incorrect price?

The Betfair market, which seems reasonably liquid & formed, currently offers 9.4, so that answers my question I suppose.

Not averse to a small investment, say £10 (as you suggest) but I'm struggling with the value notion. That's either because I just can't see why the widely known & available price has not moved, or, more likely, I've woken up this morning in an uncharacteristically grumpy & obdurate mood.

I'll have a latte, & see if I feel more kindly disposed after that.

But thank you, anyway.

[McGlashan]

quick quiz

Name this player who should be in his prime for the world cup, instead is a depressive alcoholic

He looks Brazilian. Adriano is my guess.

[TightEnd]

quick quiz

Name this player who should be in his prime for the world cup, instead is a depressive alcoholic

Adriano?

[tikay]

Do any of you have a view on Watford at Middlesborough?

I appreciate Watford have had a couple of poor results but they are now 19/10 with BV.

Three weeks ago they would have been around 11/10.

19/10 looks like a bit of value to me.

Three weeks ago Mowbray was chewing a wasp on the sidelines and Watford were in form. Neither now apply

I get the point though, 19/10 is a big price on the face of it

I think it should be remembered that Middlesborough's last 2 home wins were against Yeovil and Doncaster. Both relegation candidates.

Watford even out of form recently are not Yeovil or Donny.

I think £15 on Watford at 19/10 is a bet I'd suggest.

Morning Rick, & thanks.

We generally back your stuff blind, & are nicely ahead, but is this really a wrong price? Betfair currently go 2.94, which is about the same price.

I am definitely in a difficult mood this morning......

Latte time.

[horseplayer]

two correct guesses

That picture is 2 years old he is now 23 stone+ and in rehab again for drinking and depression

Not really a wasted talent has had a good career but still

[RickBFA]

Do any of you have a view on Watford at Middlesborough?

I appreciate Watford have had a couple of poor results but they are now 19/10 with BV.

Three weeks ago they would have been around 11/10.

19/10 looks like a bit of value to me.

Three weeks ago Mowbray was chewing a wasp on the sidelines and Watford were in form. Neither now apply

I get the point though, 19/10 is a big price on the face of it

I think it should be remembered that Middlesborough's last 2 home wins were against Yeovil and Doncaster. Both relegation candidates.

Watford even out of form recently are not Yeovil or Donny.

I think £15 on Watford at 19/10 is a bet I'd suggest.

Morning Rick, & thanks.

We generally back your stuff blind, & are nicely ahead, but is this really a wrong price? Betfair currently go 2.94, which is about the same price.

I am definitely in a difficult mood this morning......

Latte time.

Hi Tikay,

Very much respect your decision not to back it.

I suppose its comes down to opinions about the market price.

My view is the market has over valued Middlesborough's last 2 home wins and reacted to a poor Watford performance against a Leicester side (who are clearly top six material).

Enjoy the latte :-)

[TightEnd]

BT deal to show Champions / Europa League exclusively - worth around £900m for 3 seasons from 2015 compared to current £400m from ITV/Sky

[tikay]

BT deal to show Champions / Europa League exclusively - worth around £900m for 3 seasons from 2015 compared to current £400m from ITV/Sky

Good grief!

Is there no limit to the amount of TV money flowing into football?

Where does all that money go, how is it distributed, & to whom?

[horseplayer]

will be interesting to hear sky reverting back to pretending the european comps dont exist!

A bit like they used to with Formula One

[tikay]

Do any of you have a view on Watford at Middlesborough?

I appreciate Watford have had a couple of poor results but they are now 19/10 with BV.

Three weeks ago they would have been around 11/10.

19/10 looks like a bit of value to me.

Three weeks ago Mowbray was chewing a wasp on the sidelines and Watford were in form. Neither now apply

I get the point though, 19/10 is a big price on the face of it

I think it should be remembered that Middlesborough's last 2 home wins were against Yeovil and Doncaster. Both relegation candidates.

Watford even out of form recently are not Yeovil or Donny.

I think £15 on Watford at 19/10 is a bet I'd suggest.

Morning Rick, & thanks.

We generally back your stuff blind, & are nicely ahead, but is this really a wrong price? Betfair currently go 2.94, which is about the same price.

I am definitely in a difficult mood this morning......

Latte time.

Hi Tikay,

Very much respect your decision not to back it.

I suppose its comes down to opinions about the market price.

My view is the market has over valued Middlesborough's last 2 home wins and reacted to a poor Watford performance against a Leicester side (who are clearly top six material).

Enjoy the latte :-)

Thanks Rick.

I'm probably going to get on, when my dark mood lightens, after the latte, but I'm trying to employ the value logic, particularly on Saturday's, where we often seem to have a lot of these sorts of bets, & Sunday mornings are frequently sobering reading.

On gut feel alone, yes, I agree, & I very much enjoy watching Watford in their pomp. Over many years, I must have made myself a small fortune backing "gut feel". I started with a large fortune though.

I do want some nice sweats today, don't get me wrong, think I just got out of the wrong side of bed today. And my bed is tight against the wall. 

You have a nice +ROI too, in case regulars think I am suggesting otherwise.

[Matt.NFFC.]

Wonder if Tighty agrees with me on this......

Leicester to beat Forest today @11/10 is quite generous.  We are just plain awful at the moment, have a terrible record there, our strikers cannot score (still), are in a false position in the league, have 2 centre backs injured, are under pressure, and well, Leicester are in form.

All points to a home win to me.  I expected this to be something like 4/6 when I looked.

Worth a bet Mr Tighty?  £20?