Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

FWIW, I think fan bets are ok but only if emotion is taken out of it and plenty of facts are thrown in the mix.

Sure, I have my fears, so maybe there is a little emotion there, but the facts back my opinion that Leicester are good value today.

(In form, good home record, we have injured defenders, bad record there, strikers can't score)

That's enough for me to want to back the opposition, and the price of course.

Leicester legends on Soccer AM BTW Tighty, you watching?

I'm liking the Motorway thing by the way Tikay!

Plesae keep that to yourself, it is a little known litmus-test we Pros always use. I can guarantee the likes of Camel, Lord Grumpy, Doobs & especially Chompy abide by it.

[tikay]

Morning Mr Grumpy.

In the first rugby union international today Italy host Australia. I think that as usual the bookies have under estimated Italy, they did beat France and Ireland last year and just lost away to England. Last year in this fixture Italy lost by 3 points and missed a kick for the draw. While they have not yet beaten Australia they are getting ever nearer. Australia's players should have peaked for the Lions series, they then traipsed around the world in the 4 nations and now a tour of Europe- they must be drained.

Australia's forwards are not a formidable unit and are playing a 2nd row in the back row today, maybe because of their weak scrumaging. I  do rate their backs though and if Italy are to win today they have to make sure they do not concede an early try, if that happens then the Australian teams confidence will soar and it could be a 20 point defeat.

So the plan is keep it tight, kick their goals, tackle anything in gold, be nice to the English referee and hope to see some of the expected rain to make passing difficult.

Suggest £20 Italy to beat Australia @ 4-1 with Corals or Hills.

Morning Hector.

That's just ridiculous.

First you address me as "Mr Grumpy" (not even LORD Grumpy or SIR Grumpy?), then you suggest the Italians - the ITALIANS - could beat Australia at anything, let alone Rugby Union. RU is a man's game, did you not know? And when did Italians ever be nice to the English, as in today's referee? Italians are only good for appendage waving.

However, the Bet gets placed on a technicality - the first Feed Recommend EVER that included a favourite word of mine.....

traipsed

Can't recall ever seing traipsed on blonde previously, to be honest. Tal will be so excited.

See, everything here is logical. Traipsed, Motorway Junctions, the lot.

At last, we have a bet.

BET PLACED

[tikay]

October 2013 Figures

Closed bets: 142
Amount wagered: £4,642.10
Profit/loss: £516.45
ROI: 11.13%

Number of "sports" bet on: 14
Most popular: Horses (44),  Football (37), NFL (14).
Most profitable: NFL (£246.77), Football (£221.36),  Cycling (£208.12)
Least profitable: Cricket (-£81.11), Baseball (-£80.00), Tennis (-£69.00)

Number of tipsters: 32 including 6 new tipsters.


Overall statistics (since February 2012)

Total closed bets: 2,435
Amount wagered: £80,504.26
Profit/loss: £3,747.73
ROI: 4.66%

Number of "sports" bet on: 28
Most popular:  Football (614), Horses(584), Golf (222), Cricket(171).

Most and least profitable sports (based on aggregate profit/loss) are:
        
Sport               Profit  Amt Bet       ROI   No.
Horses   2,140.43   20,651.97   10.36   584
Football   1,768.63   20,065.95   8.81   614
NFL   828.71   4,999.83   16.57   116
...
Formula1   -383.00   824.00   -46.48   31
Golf   -990.85   6,197.32   -15.99   222
Basketball   -1,048.12   2,763.66   -37.93   61


The complete list is here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=4


Total number of tipsters: 138


Number of different bookies/exchanges/agents: 35

Most and least profitable bookies (based on aggregate profit/loss) are:
        
Bookie          Profit     Amt Bet   ROI     No.
BoyleSports   1,678.90   3,946.45   42.54   96
WilliamHill   1,361.96   12,534.58   10.87   396
BetVictor   1,137.80   11,103.00   10.25   344
...
PaddyPower   -513.46   6,363.62   -8.07   258
BetFred   -573.62   4,972.00   -11.54   158
Betfair   -789.43   9,850.65   -8.01   199


The complete list is here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=7

BUMPED FOR GREEKWAY (George).

Your question a few days ago requries a fair bit of answering George, but the above is a good place to start, it is the "October Report".

Ignoring the month of October, what it shows us is the long-term results of betting for value.

We can see, overall, we have placed nearly 2,500 bets, average bet size about £33, & we average a profit of approx £1.50 per bet. That equates to 4.66%.

The 4.66% earned comes largely from identifying value.

Look at it another way. The Bookies work to a margin of about (say) 10%, so unless we identify value, we'll lose 10% over time. This is as certain as losing at roulette over time.

So we need to find prices that are out of line. We have to find a way to overcome that 10% AND find a profit. It follows, then, that using judgement, & the ability to identify value, we need to beat the bookies by at least 15%. Such spots are quite rare.

Another way to view it is to realise that the difference between any price, & "Best Price", is often more than 5%. So by finding "Best Price" every time, we can identify value already. Couple that with judgement, & we are on our way.

A good yardstick here is the Betfair Exchange price. Assuming the Betfair market on an event is formed, & reasonably liquid, it is always assumed that it is the correct price. So if a bookie offers a price better than Betfair Exchange, given the qualifying criteria I noted, we MUST have value.   

We are not interested in whether, say, Man U will beat Arsenal, or Arsenal will beat Man U.  We are ONLY interested in the price. The Pros here will often begin by saying "I am with Man U at that price". But the price then moves, & the very same Pro will now say "I am with Arsenal at that price".  Nothing to do with who wins - the value, & price, are the only criteria.

So, ANY bet Recommended that does not include the target price, & reason it is value, will never be placed by Fred. The price, & value, is the first criteria, every time.

Ask a Pro who they fancy for Arsenal v Man U, & they will ALL say the same thing. What is the price?

Bookies all offer much the same prices, too, & are often slow to adjust to real life changes. Rooney & RVP get sent off in a midweek game, & are banned for Saturday. Even before that game ends, the shrewd guys will be on Odschecker, seeing if the Bookies have adjusted their prices for Saturday. We have had numerous good bets on that basis.

If every bookie goes 2/1 Arsenal, ditto Betfair, & that price has been there a week, how can it be wrong? It can't. All the info is out there. We can all bet any result on that match we fancy, but over time - say 10,000 repeats, WE MUST LOSE 10%. (The Bookies margin). We need WRONG PRICES.

I'll try & answer further in due course, but that is for starters.

[BigAdz]

Unless, of course, Tikay likes a particular word that day

[Dubai]

Best prices on football are basically 100% with zero bookie margin. If you take best price any of the 3 outcomes it's incredibly hard to have a very bad bet.

Also what's with the £5ew golf stuff when Fred's roll is £5k or so??? 0.1% of roll each way on decent bets???

Come on!!  

[Tal]

Traipsed: a fine opening gambit to the day

[horseplayer]

cracking post tikay

[tikay]

More for George.

Below is the Spreadsheet.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=32

Have a good look at it.

Eveery single one of those 2,500 bets is detailed there, with the owner, price, bookie, & result. ALL BETS ARE PROOFED IN ADVANCE, so there is no smudging of numbers.

It has a column for each month, also "Sports", "Bookies" etc. The only numbers you cannot easily identify are the profits & losses for individual tipsters. (Though you could work it out longhand). This is becuse figures can be skewed by sample size, & anyway, we don't want to be embarrassing anyone, this is not like a regular poker forum, we are just al learning off each other, & don't poke our fingers in folks eyes, poker style.

I should add that, like most regular punters - ice creams is the slang - I was a losing punter for 30 years. Now, thanks to the Elders here, I'm a winning punter, & so is anyone who follows Fred's bets "blind". Those who are more selective will make a goodly amount more than 4.66%.   

Don't waste time, by the way, on trying to find the winner of (say) Man U v Arsenal. Markets of that size are rarely wrong, & when they are, not by much.  The value is mostly to be found in far more obscure sub-markets. We have had some seriously perverted bets here, Russian Shot Throwers (male or female), Mexican Rally winners, Inexhaustible cyclists (150/1), & "Top or Best" this that or the other. (Australian batsmen, for example).   

We gave up betting on the NBA Outrights, after losing over £1,000. Yes, I'm serious, we blew over £1,000! The market sizes are massive, & so the prices are rarely far wrong. Now we make money on NBA in other Markets - MVP, that sort of thing, where good judgement can still find value.

It's a learning experience for most of us, & a fun one at that. Lots of hard work goes into it by those who find the value, & also MereNovice (who you may recall from Next Door) & Tighty, who is also Next Door as "SPT Rich".

Any questions, fire away.

Enjoy.

[tikay]

Unless, of course, Tikay likes a particular word that day

BOOM!

[tikay]

Best prices on football are basically 100% with zero bookie margin. If you take best price any of the 3 outcomes it's incredibly hard to have a very bad bet.

Also what's with the £5ew golf stuff when Fred's roll is £5k or so??? 0.1% of roll each way on decent bets???

Come on!!  

Zero Margin by Bookies? That is Level 2 stuff, I need George to begin at Level One.

The £5 Ew is interesting to me though. Does that not suggest the confidence level of the Recommendee - in this case Adzy?

You often suggest small bets, too. Same reason, I imagine?

To be fair, any Elder could answer George's question better than me, but I understand George, he is a friend, & so I answered best I could.

I'd actually LOVE you or any other Elder - or even Chompy - to answer George's question actually. How does it work?

[tikay]

Traipsed: a fine opening gambit to the day

Knew you'd enjoy that.

How can the Italians possibly lose after the Aussies have been traipsing?

Clear value. Like the Motorway Junctions jobbie. Even Dubai does not know that one. But I guarantee, as we speak, right now, Dubai has his Road Atlas out, & is memorising, parrot fashion, Motorway Junction numbers.

[tikay]

Do any of you have a view on Watford at Middlesborough?

I appreciate Watford have had a couple of poor results but they are now 19/10 with BV.

Three weeks ago they would have been around 11/10.

19/10 looks like a bit of value to me.

After two lattes, I now partly agree. Only a modest £15, just to incure Dubai's considerable wrath. And he does serious wrath, let me tell you.

I'm still not wholly convinced, especially as I've been lecturing this morning, on a very tall horse,  so if Watford don't win, you are seriously dead.

BET PLACED

[tikay]

Tonight the GRAND SLAM OF DARTS is televised.


http://www.oddschecker.com/darts/grand-slam-of-darts

[redarmi]

Couple of points.  Not sure who mentioned it earlier (RickBFA??) but as a Boro fan I agree Watford are probably a bit of value today.  I made them 13/8 on my tissue and I can only think that the fact that Boro won 4-0 on national TV last time up is the reason they are so short.  At the end of the day we are talking about a team here that has won something ridiculous like 5 games in 2013.

[redarmi]

BT deal to show Champions / Europa League exclusively - worth around £900m for 3 seasons from 2015 compared to current £400m from ITV/Sky

Presumably they bid about 1.2bn for just the Champs League!!!