Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Johnstone's Paint Pot semi-final southern section draw...

Newport v Poshies

Already booked the ferry to the Isle Of Wight. One time, oi oi!

Nasty draw

Newport are very good at home, nasty rugby pitch to play on, hostile crowd

[tikay]

Hannah is a nee channer in X Factor.

According to the front page of today's Sun, Sam Bailey has been crushing the public vote for the last few weeks, pulling in at least 35%, double her nearest rival. If that's right, 5/4 is buying money.

I asume that is NOT a Recommend?

[Chompy]

Don't mind the draw tbh, we're as happy on the road as at home and Newport are the only League Two team left. Prefer that to being away at Swindon tbh.

Re: Xmas No.1, I'm inclined to think that the X Factor winner is very unlikely to bink. It hasn't happened since 2008, when Alexandra Burke was the fourth show winner on the spin to hit the top.

I was looking at backing Sam Bailey @ 4/1, but nobody watches the X Factor any more. Maybe just lumping on her at 5/4 to win the show is the way.

[tikay]

The strictly market has gone all weird.

Sophie Ellis Bextor no longer 2nd favourite, but is now 6th favourite!

Patrick has gone ahead of Ashley in the overall betting, but still behind in the best man.

Betway have Patrick at 11/4 for top man, he is 11/10 with Stan James.

If we have Betway, we should just get on and lay off later.  As much as we can.

Edit.  Gone. now best 9/4.  I have also backed SEB again at 9.6 to green the Betfair book.

The gazillion pounds you had on at 11/4 hasn't made the spreadsheet yet.  Some move that now 6/4 best for top man and 6/1 overall.  24 points awaits on Saturday.

Sorry, my mind has gone blank on this, can someone remind me, please?

I have a feeling rthat Doobs laid me a bit, but I honestly can't recall at the mo.

[Chompy]

Tellymix X Factor poll...

Sam Bailey (35%, 673 Votes)
Tamera Foster (16%, 310 Votes)
Rough Copy (15%, 286 Votes)
Nicholas McDonald (13%, 250 Votes)
Luke Friend (10%, 196 Votes)
Hannah Barrett (6%, 122 Votes)
Sam Callahan (5%, 74 Votes)

Total Voters: 1,911

If this was Big Brother, she'd be a 1/3 shot by now. Tamera is just not liked by the voting public.

[tikay]

Don't mind the draw tbh, we're as happy on the road as at home and Newport are the only League Two team left. Prefer that to being away at Swindon tbh.

Re: Xmas No.1, I'm inclined to think that the X Factor winner is very unlikely to bink. It hasn't happened since 2008, when Alexandra Burke was the fourth show winner on the spin to hit the top.

I was looking at backing Sam Bailey @ 4/1, but nobody watches the X Factor any more. Maybe just lumping on her at 5/4 to win the show is the way.

Stop it. Stop it right now, what does that even mean?

Sam, 4/1, 5/4, Show, Outright?

[tikay]

Tellymix X Factor poll...

Sam Bailey (35%, 673 Votes)
Tamera Foster (16%, 310 Votes)
Rough Copy (15%, 286 Votes)
Nicholas McDonald (13%, 250 Votes)
Luke Friend (10%, 196 Votes)
Hannah Barrett (6%, 122 Votes)
Sam Callahan (5%, 74 Votes)

Total Voters: 1,911

If this was Big Brother, she'd be a 1/3 shot by now. Tamera is just not liked by the voting public.

This?

Am I supposed to bet this Sam chap?


http://www.oddschecker.com/tv/x-factor/winning-act

[Chompy]

Screwbo is 4/1 for Xmas No.1, 5/4 to win the X Factor.

Coral go 13/8 about the X Factor winner being Xmas No.1. 13/8 and 5/4 in a double comes out at around 5/1, so 4/1 is an easy leave.

I haven't watched X Factor this series, so am reluctant to put Sam up as a rec bet, but everything points to 5/4 being valoo. Any show fans want to put her up? If so, no tiddlearsing, hit it hard!

[scotty2hatty]

Yes, .08 is a length tikay.

Sawpit has been drawn 4 and Airlie 6, I might have preferred them the other way around. As it happens, last year, Sawpit Sensation finished 2nd in both the first round and second round before doing the clock in the final. He's still the record holder. I'm sure we'd be happy with a repeat.

Exocet is the only unseeded left but slight encouragement that he can run rls-mid and if Calzaghe Davy breaks like he has then we have a chance of minor trouble for both. Bridge Honcho, in 3, was one of the Derby selections I gave TfT and is only now producing the trapping I thought he could show at Wimbledon, but I'm still not convinced about his consistency.

Both SS and AI can beat trap 5 to the corner and any inside trouble will be a boost. Both capable of improvement on the clock whilst, the three in traps 1-3 can't all repeat their semi-final performances.

Thanks Scott.

I could not be more pleased, 2 long priced selections, both made the Final, & we have a proper good sweat on Wednesday.

I can't seem to find the current prices anywhere, Oddschecker just show what appears to be some jumbled Betfair prices for 9 (nine) different dogs.

http://www.oddschecker.com/greyhounds/ante-post/betfred-eclipse/winner

Are there no current prices available?

Anyway, a fun night ahead on Wednesday, think it is televised, too.

Not priced up yet, I imagine today at some point as it is a C1 contest.

And yes it is on Sky this Wednesday.

[TightEnd]

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos tomorrow on Ch 4

A huge game in the AFC West as the turn-round story of the season, the undefeated Chiefs and their Number One ranked defense visit Denver to play Peyton Manning and the 8-1 Broncos.

We have £25 Chiefs to win the division pre-season at 7-1. they now have the Broncos twice in three weeks. Split those two games 1-1 and we have a real shot at that bet

It has become routine to diss the Chiefs, with a workmanlike offense, an easy schedule and a remarkable run of facing back up quarterbacks for several games in a row, and claim that their record is "false". However you can only beat who the schedule gives you to beat*. Nevertheless this helps explain the remarkable prices for this game where the unbeaten team is a 9.5 point underdog!

Denver of course have a multi-faceted offense, even though Manning aggravated an injured ankle last week. Most would expect them to win this game and I do too.

However a 9.5 point spread doesn't leave a lot of room for manoeuvre for Denver backers as the Chiefs defense features two superb pass rushers in Tamba Hali and Justin Houston plus plenty of talent, built up over several years of high draft picks as the team was in the doldrums, in the secondary. First round draft picks include Eric Berry, Dontari Poe, Tamba Hali, Derrick Johnson and Tyson Jackson

Because the team stunk for about 7 years in a row, it was always picking top ten in the draft. It is no surprise, or at least wasn't to me hence we backed them, that once the team got respectable coaching and a workable quarterback solution that the team would transform its record quickly. the team is stuffed full of talent

The Kansas Defense and the superb running back Jamaal Charles will help keep this game close, keep Manning off the field if they can sustain some drives via running the ball. We have a blue sky scenario of Manning being quite banged up too, was hobbling last week and hasn't practiced since

The value bet here is the Chiefs +9.5 at 4/5 Ladbrokes, or +8.5 elsewhere 10/11 if you want less of a boookmakers cushion. 7 and 10 are the key spreads


* A 16 game NFL Schedule gives you

- Six games against teams in your division
- four games against another division in your conference
- four games against a division in the other conference
- two games against teams who finished in the same spot in their division you did the year before

So the Chiefs finished 2-14, 4th in the AFC West, last year

This season they got

-their six divisional games
-the NFC East, in a poor year for that division. Chiefs have beaten the three NFCE teams they have played
-the AFC South, including the Jags and a disappointing Texans
- Browns and Bills, last year's 4th placed teams in AFC

So the schedule has certainly been soft, but thems the breaks

[horseplayer]

Like two bets in League One today both in same game

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-1/stevenage-v-rotherham/winner

Stevenage are in excellent form now, Rotherham have been poor recently until two wins.

All of that is in the price, not so sure the books have taken it account Kári Árnason missing for the visitors. The icelandic international defender cum midfielder was in action last night in the rearguard against Croatia, without him last season in a season of promotion Rotherham won 3 of 14 games (much below expected level). Rotherham also have two other defensive doubts.

He is a bit of a standout player at this level and although a small sample size the above stats are at worse supportive.

The other bet i like in the game is François_Zoko to score anytime. He is a striker who a few years ago at Carlisle was attracting attention of at least championship sides. He has done ok since a bit of an enigma after a good start to this season he went quiet but is back to form last few games.

The angle here is he had a trial with todays opponents when Notts County could no longer afford his wages at the start of this season. Steve Evans deemed him not good enough which should provide extra motivation if needed, regardless of this with a few defensive men missing and the 15/8 for a striker being more than generous anyway i think its a bet.







BET SUGGESTION £20 Stevenage win at 8/5 (general)

BET SUGGESTION £15 Score Anytime Zoko, Francois   15/8 Betfred

[TL900]

Thoughts on Jags +9 at home vs the cardinals tighty? I like it at first glance

[TightEnd]

Thoughts on Jags +9 at home vs the cardinals tighty? I like it at first glance

I don't mind it, but gave up the fools gold of the Jags getting over a touchdown several weeks ago!

On the upside to any bet, the Cardinals offense is inconsistent and might give the Jags a chance of points/short fields via turnovers.

On the downside, the Cardinals defense is really very good, hopelessly under-rated because its an unfashionable franchise outside a major media market and its tough to see the Jags scoring 20+ points here

[redarmi]

Click to see full-size image.

seems like a great deal

Yup.

Remind me, where exactly does 'Arry fit into that?

Gotta say, he must have a cracking Agent, who gets all these endorsements deals for him.

He tells Paul Kelmsley to bet the other horses in the races so you can get a better price on yours......

[Tal]

Tighty, a few days ago, I posted about the Chiefs outright. Is it a bad bet?