Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

SCD update in running.

Susanna a bit disappointing, Ashley was good, will probably be 4/6 best when the markets open again for top man.  Patrick needs a good dance, I think Ben will struggle.

Door is open for Sophie again, don't think the 7/1 will last.  Midweek reports were positive for her.

[TightEnd]

Natalie scored 37. A lock for top 3

Still a bit worried a springer improves past her, but we'll have a run for our money to the end

[Doobs]

Natalie scored 37. A lock for top 3

Still a bit worried a springer improves past her, but we'll have a run for our money to the end

No challenge tonight.  Sophie > Susanna for me, but Natalie so much better than both.

[TightEnd]

Well done Horseplayer

5/4 was a hell of a price

Click to see full-size image.

[tikay]

Well done Horseplayer

5/4 was a hell of a price

Click to see full-size image.

BOOM!

Nice one John, thank you.

[horseplayer]

did you take the 5's napoli as well tikay?

[Tal]

Natalie scored 37. A lock for top 3

Still a bit worried a springer improves past her, but we'll have a run for our money to the end

No challenge tonight.  Sophie > Susanna for me, but Natalie so much better than both.

We are getting to silly season with the judges again. They know who they want to go through and the marks are scant reflection of the dances.

Sophie's dance was prim and proper, if a little awkward at times. It wasn't undermarked but those around her were overmarked, which made it look a lot worse than it was. If she gets to the final, she has a good chance of winning, because she can do Quickstep/Foxtrot as ballroom and the Charleston as Latin. But she has to get there first.

Natalie had an off-night for me, but the judges weren't going to let her end up in the middle of the pack in case the public didn't vote. She cries in 87.3% of VTs (I've counted all the data and everything) and the choice of music was bizarre.

Ashley has tiny steps compared to Patrick but the judges didn't mind that. It is a technical fault - just see how easily the professionals cover the floor tomorrow night.

Ben was brilliant. His best dance and should have been 32+. He isn't a likely champ but to have scored him that low was silly. I think th e audience agreed. It is incredible how light he is on his feet compared to the other men.

Ashley and Patrick have top line and head issues in ballroom dances, but there's not much between them overall. Patrick has an edge in Latin but Ashley in ballroom, notwithstanding his Willie Carson steps.

Mark is markedly worse than the others and, should he be in the bottom two, should be the one we say goodbye to.

I said on Wednesday that Susanna was struggling with her legs and she didn't improve much in the second half of the week, it seems. I really wouldn't worry about it, as long as she gets through this weekend. The cha-cha is unique technically and the specific thing she isn't getting to grips with won't really come up in other dances. She's demonstrated how talented she is and she has improved dramatically through the series. No reason to believe she won't have public support.

Abbey was another one who was generous scored, compared to what the judges actually said about her performance. I thought it was a terrible choice of song for a Paso and why anyone would do a girl's hair in a pony tail, knowing she was going to whip her head about is beyond me.

The audience weren't happy with some of the scores tonight and it wasn't in the normal panto way. I wouldn't be advocating any new positions off tonight's performances, tbh, chaps. I think you can be happy with the ones you have.

[Tal]

Gus Poyet is trying to ruin our Palace bet.

Real shame Holloway is no longer in charge, not a fan of Pulis but he will get them with a better chance

Still a massive price we have though

I just feel sorry for the fans. Replace a funny manager who likes to play attacking football with Tony Pulis. What a dull way to go down.

You could have set me off here but I will try to limit this. Holloway lost the players. He tried to play a passing game with players that were more comfortable playing direct and hitting the wings rather than playing out from the back on the floor. We were never comfortable under his philosophy, but he still said in press conferences that he would continue with his style of play despite results. Which is idiotic really. How can you be so obtuse? He was awesome in the play offs for us and for that I will be eternally grateful, but he needs to have the ability to change up the core tactics if they are not working.

Millen came in, kept it much more simple and he gets 4 points from 4 in charge and I am upset he wasn't given a longer spell as we were playing well. Pulis may come in and destabilise, but with the good defense (in the games we lost, most of the time the defense were playing very well, but any team can only take so much in terms of a constant barrage) that he is going to be adopting at Palace I think he has enough to work with to keep us up.

That is two clean sheets in a row now as well. Williams back from injury and Murray back in January. You have to hope there is a turn around coming if you are a Palace fan.

Don't get me wrong: I'd be happy for you to stay up. Was nothing personal.

[Tal]

Ronaldo off injured.

Anyone know how badly?



(Edit: just noticed - Oioi all aboard the 4k express!)

[BorntoBubble]

Wow 4k pages and not going broke*. Didn't think i would see the day.

*The thread not going broke. I bet you many a punter following has but we cannot all be as shrewd as Mr Kendall

[tikay]

did you take the 5's napoli as well tikay?

No, I did see it, but then I plum forgot about it. Almost the same time at the German bet, about 2 or 3 days ago, yes?

They won, I guess?.......

[horseplayer]

did you take the 5's napoli as well tikay?

No, I did see it, but then I plum forgot about it. Almost the same time at the German bet, about 2 or 3 days ago, yes?

They won, I guess?.......

no they play dortmund next round of champions league midweek

theory being then (and same now) bd will still be without the back 4, they look a bit of a mess tonight which isnt a surprise

Napoli at 9/2 still look backable to me either for a trade come match time or an outright back

[tikay]

Natalie scored 37. A lock for top 3

Still a bit worried a springer improves past her, but we'll have a run for our money to the end

No challenge tonight.  Sophie > Susanna for me, but Natalie so much better than both.

We are getting to silly season with the judges again. They know who they want to go through and the marks are scant reflection of the dances.

Sophie's dance was prim and proper, if a little awkward at times. It wasn't undermarked but those around her were overmarked, which made it look a lot worse than it was. If she gets to the final, she has a good chance of winning, because she can do Quickstep/Foxtrot as ballroom and the Charleston as Latin. But she has to get there first.

Natalie had an off-night for me, but the judges weren't going to let her end up in the middle of the pack in case the public didn't vote. She cries in 87.3% of VTs (I've counted all the data and everything) and the choice of music was bizarre.

Ashley has tiny steps compared to Patrick but the judges didn't mind that. It is a technical fault - just see how easily the professionals cover the floor tomorrow night.

Ben was brilliant. His best dance and should have been 32+. He isn't a likely champ but to have scored him that low was silly. I think th e audience agreed. It is incredible how light he is on his feet compared to the other men.

Ashley and Patrick have top line and head issues in ballroom dances, but there's not much between them overall. Patrick has an edge in Latin but Ashley in ballroom, notwithstanding his Willie Carson steps.

Mark is markedly worse than the others and, should he be in the bottom two, should be the one we say goodbye to.

I said on Wednesday that Susanna was struggling with her legs and she didn't improve much in the second half of the week, it seems. I really wouldn't worry about it, as long as she gets through this weekend. The cha-cha is unique technically and the specific thing she isn't getting to grips with won't really come up in other dances. She's demonstrated how talented she is and she has improved dramatically through the series. No reason to believe she won't have public support.

Abbey was another one who was generous scored, compared to what the judges actually said about her performance. I thought it was a terrible choice of song for a Paso and why anyone would do a girl's hair in a pony tail, knowing she was going to whip her head about is beyond me.

The audience weren't happy with some of the scores tonight and it wasn't in the normal panto way. I wouldn't be advocating any new positions off tonight's performances, tbh, chaps. I think you can be happy with the ones you have.

Your depth of knowledge on dancing technicalities is astounding. That's the first ever SCD Post I have understood, & enjoyed. Probably the last, too.

Anyway, did we win?

[Doobs]

Change of plan on the free bet.

The Champion Hurdle has been run since 1927.  In that time, precisely 2 mares have won the race.  The last was Dawn Run in 1984.  Recently a whole raft of races have been upgraded to make it more attractive to race mares over jumps, so this one could have a real easy time beating up her own sex and earning a decent wedge doing it.  Given connections came over the channel and raced in a race open to the top hurdlers, then that makes me think they really are planning a tilt at the Champion.  I think she is at least as good as Quevega already, so don't think she'll be going to the Mares race at Cheltenham whilst Quevega is still on a big streak.

The mare I think we should back is Annie Power.  I think on a line through Zarkandar, she can't be much behind the very best 2 mile hurdlers now.  She must still have a p after her name in Timeform, because she hasn't really looked like losing yet.  The way she was backed today suggests she is highly rated by her stable.

There are 2 downsides. 

Her trainer is Willie Mullins, and I know a few wouldn't back one of his ante post for any race.  Maybe he is never as clear in his plans as you'd like.  She could possibly show up in the World Hurdle or the Mares race, and not sure we'd get much notice on the decision.  I'd certainly be happier if there were plenty of upbeat bulletins surrounding Quevega during the season.

The other is that she has only ever run on softish ground.  This may not be such a bad thing with the Champion Hurdle, as they aren't ever starting the Festival on firm ground, even if it may get there by the Friday.

We could still back Rizeena for the 1,000 and she has a lot of form in very good races, and you can be pretty sure that Clive Brittain will make sure she turns up in the 1,000 Guineas if at all possible.  I expect he'd even find a way of getting her there if she lost a leg over the winter.  But she is 12/1 and though it seems value, I think there is likely always likely to be one better.  I kind of see her as a worthy 2nd come next year's race.  Though I have an ante-post voucher, myself, I am struggling to get excited about it.  Frankly, the bet just seems very dull.

Now Annie Power is different, whilst she remains unbeaten, we can still dream that she can be the very best one next March.  But more importantly, a mare winning the Champion Hurdle is something to get excited about. 

So forget all the possible downside, get that free bet on Annie Power for the Champion Hurdle.  12/1 best price with William Hill.

...and please Mr Mullins, send her to the Champion.

[BigAdz]

I backed her a few weeks ago with VC @ 20s, but on basis it was NR Free bet.

Saw nothing today to put me off.