Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Mr 040489 is

Click to see full-size image.

Unfortunately for him I'll still take Maidstone with their budget, lost one game all season, games in hand, +23 goal difference over Dulwich Hamlet cigars

Are we going to have Mr Bannan tipped every weekend until he assists? :-)

I would guess we are, yes, but he has to get an assist eventually, surely? The worry is, Palace have to score first.

[Ant040689]

Mr 040489 is

Click to see full-size image.

Unfortunately for him I'll still take Maidstone with their budget, lost one game all season, games in hand, +23 goal difference over Dulwich Hamlet cigars

Are we going to have Mr Bannan tipped every weekend until he assists? :-)

I would guess we are, yes, but he has to get an assist eventually, surely? The worry is, Palace have to score first.

Not if you are on anytime at 8/1

[Snowball]

The darts bet looks a 100 star max at all prices down to 1/2. Shame just boyles priced up

Very much this.
2/1 was just incredible

[exstream]

One last tip from me Tikay, this one I doubt anyone else can help you much with. I tipped them pre season at 16/1, I didn't know then there was an each way market available which i am gutted about, but after having a decent enough look at them, 18 games in, I still think there is value in them and suggest Dulwich Hamlet 9/1 to win the Isthmian Premier League, £20 EW with Betway, 1/5 odds for top 3.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/non-league/isthmian-premier/winner

At the moment here is how the table stands

http://www.footballwebpages.co.uk/dulwich/league

It could be argued that they are taking up a displaced 3rd spot despite being in 5th because of the games they have in hand.

They play a brand of football pretty unique to the league from what i know. Very short passes, building up slowly and beautifully from the back, and they seek to really dominate teams when they play them. They seem to be comfortable against the mid table to lower teams in the league, but have struggled against the better teams but that has been partly down to needing to bring in a new striker as their best one has a broken leg, plus they probably need to bring in a centre back to help solidify the defense, as I was witness to their 1-4 home defeat to clear league favourites Wealdstone and it didn't look pretty. Granted they dominated possession and looked on top for large periods, but they were lacking that sharpness that one or two new faces could help with. The manager has often been good in the past of bringing in quality to help the team, and despite some shaky form recently I see them pushing on from here.

As it stands the bet would effectively be a 4/5 shot of being in the top 3 with a freeroll if they were to come first and where they stand now, that isn't completely terrible, plus the odds have widened recently because of poor loss to Wealdstone that was a bit of a 6 pointer, but I think that I think will get shorter. They won the game after away from home 2-3 against mid table opposition, proving a nice bounce back had happened. The key to more consistent results comes with the introduction of one or two players, which I think will be inevitable. One of which he has already brought in, a guy who was on trial with Norwich recently has been getting a run out up front, Kemo Darboe.

One signing made at the start of last season was Danial Carr, who scored 24 goals and was snapped up by Huddersfield at the start of this season. He has a guy on the books now currently linked with three pro clubs in Xavier Vidal, and the best player in the team, currently in Erhun Oztumer, who would be a league player now if it wasn't for his 5'2 frame, despite that I would be shocked if he doesn't go to a pro team by season's end. This all goes to show the manager can be shrewd with the talented young players he takes on, two of those were discarded initially by pro teams, he plans to nurture them through first team football and make them valuable again with their added experience.

They have a manager who runs a great youth team academy in South London that churns out very good players of which he is seeping into the first team at the right opportunities. It is his day job and is called "The Aspire Academy" he uses the Dulwich Hamlet youth team as an academy side that trains 5 times a week and links in college around football like many pro scholarships do. Some decent footballers have arose recently from there, probably their most famous alumni is George Elokobi, but within recent years they have had a lot of players snapped up by Palace, Norwich and West Ham to name a few.

http://www.aspirefootball.co.uk/index.php?mo=profiles&team_id=9&gallery_id=10

He has that academy side set up to play the same style of football seen in the Hamlet first team to make the transition easier, which helps a lot.

I think their general ethos of how to play great football served them well to winning the league below last season and started with this year leading this league for long periods before key players got injured. I think the manager has the capability to bring in what is required and really mount a charge towards the end of the season, plus the muscle memory from winning last season cannot be a bad thing despite the rise in class of opponents.

Thanks Ant.

You must thing I'm being deliberately obdurate here (not something that comes naturally to me), but I don't have a Betway Account.

The next best offer is 7/1 with Bet365.

Don't be silly about me thinking you are obdurate. I like the fact my tips get vetted, it is why I continue to put them out there, so others can offer advice and in response I can perhaps improve at seeking value. Even if you don't quite fancy it someone else might and in this case it is a matter of not having an account!

I actually waited on Betway to offer their odds today as I knew they would probably give me an extra value.

I wouldn't advise 7/1. If the place comes in at the end of the season you have a 2/5 bet rather than a 4/5 bet, which seems too big a difference to consider 7/1 with better out there.

Thanks very much Ant.

In truth, I absolutely refuse to believe that anyone could consider me obdurate.

Ant, 11/2 with betvictor, but 1/4 odds instead of 1/5 of odds. Much worse/better?

[Ant040689]

One last tip from me Tikay, this one I doubt anyone else can help you much with. I tipped them pre season at 16/1, I didn't know then there was an each way market available which i am gutted about, but after having a decent enough look at them, 18 games in, I still think there is value in them and suggest Dulwich Hamlet 9/1 to win the Isthmian Premier League, £20 EW with Betway, 1/5 odds for top 3.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/non-league/isthmian-premier/winner

At the moment here is how the table stands

http://www.footballwebpages.co.uk/dulwich/league

It could be argued that they are taking up a displaced 3rd spot despite being in 5th because of the games they have in hand.

They play a brand of football pretty unique to the league from what i know. Very short passes, building up slowly and beautifully from the back, and they seek to really dominate teams when they play them. They seem to be comfortable against the mid table to lower teams in the league, but have struggled against the better teams but that has been partly down to needing to bring in a new striker as their best one has a broken leg, plus they probably need to bring in a centre back to help solidify the defense, as I was witness to their 1-4 home defeat to clear league favourites Wealdstone and it didn't look pretty. Granted they dominated possession and looked on top for large periods, but they were lacking that sharpness that one or two new faces could help with. The manager has often been good in the past of bringing in quality to help the team, and despite some shaky form recently I see them pushing on from here.

As it stands the bet would effectively be a 4/5 shot of being in the top 3 with a freeroll if they were to come first and where they stand now, that isn't completely terrible, plus the odds have widened recently because of poor loss to Wealdstone that was a bit of a 6 pointer, but I think that I think will get shorter. They won the game after away from home 2-3 against mid table opposition, proving a nice bounce back had happened. The key to more consistent results comes with the introduction of one or two players, which I think will be inevitable. One of which he has already brought in, a guy who was on trial with Norwich recently has been getting a run out up front, Kemo Darboe.

One signing made at the start of last season was Danial Carr, who scored 24 goals and was snapped up by Huddersfield at the start of this season. He has a guy on the books now currently linked with three pro clubs in Xavier Vidal, and the best player in the team, currently in Erhun Oztumer, who would be a league player now if it wasn't for his 5'2 frame, despite that I would be shocked if he doesn't go to a pro team by season's end. This all goes to show the manager can be shrewd with the talented young players he takes on, two of those were discarded initially by pro teams, he plans to nurture them through first team football and make them valuable again with their added experience.

They have a manager who runs a great youth team academy in South London that churns out very good players of which he is seeping into the first team at the right opportunities. It is his day job and is called "The Aspire Academy" he uses the Dulwich Hamlet youth team as an academy side that trains 5 times a week and links in college around football like many pro scholarships do. Some decent footballers have arose recently from there, probably their most famous alumni is George Elokobi, but within recent years they have had a lot of players snapped up by Palace, Norwich and West Ham to name a few.

http://www.aspirefootball.co.uk/index.php?mo=profiles&team_id=9&gallery_id=10

He has that academy side set up to play the same style of football seen in the Hamlet first team to make the transition easier, which helps a lot.

I think their general ethos of how to play great football served them well to winning the league below last season and started with this year leading this league for long periods before key players got injured. I think the manager has the capability to bring in what is required and really mount a charge towards the end of the season, plus the muscle memory from winning last season cannot be a bad thing despite the rise in class of opponents.

Thanks Ant.

You must thing I'm being deliberately obdurate here (not something that comes naturally to me), but I don't have a Betway Account.

The next best offer is 7/1 with Bet365.

Don't be silly about me thinking you are obdurate. I like the fact my tips get vetted, it is why I continue to put them out there, so others can offer advice and in response I can perhaps improve at seeking value. Even if you don't quite fancy it someone else might and in this case it is a matter of not having an account!

I actually waited on Betway to offer their odds today as I knew they would probably give me an extra value.

I wouldn't advise 7/1. If the place comes in at the end of the season you have a 2/5 bet rather than a 4/5 bet, which seems too big a difference to consider 7/1 with better out there.

Thanks very much Ant.

In truth, I absolutely refuse to believe that anyone could consider me obdurate.

Ant, 11/2 with betvictor, but 1/4 odds instead of 1/5 of odds. Much worse/better?

You are better off mathematically with going with Bet 365 at 7/1 with 1/5 odds, you just shade it on the place profit, and you get 1.5 points improvement on the win part of the bet.

Considering the low amount being wagered in £20 EW, I guess nobody is going to be in it for the for the place profit anyway. You could just look at it as a nice little safety net if you fancy going for the outright win, and in that case, 7/1, and £148 profit is not bad if it comes in, with £8 profit if they get 2nd or 3rd.

That is compared to £196 profit with Betway for first, and £16 profit on the place at £20 EW 9/1.

I don't think it is a bad bet at 7/1, but it would be my cut off. 

[Ant040689]

I am looking at you horseplayer for advice with my FGS/anytime Palace bets please. You seem to know your way around those markets! Do you think they could be value, or in line with what should be expected considering they are going to be up against it big time tomorrow?

[horseplayer]

firstly ant excellent previews a lot of work in those

At those prices for starting strikers in almost any game i dont think you can go to far wrong

If anybody bets anything or suggest anything at bigger than 20/1 it is a pretty silly and hard to be to negative anyway.


Its not rocket science what i do with fgs at present if a side is shorter than 1/2 and the starting striker is 4/1+ i am autobetting them each way if available (even down to 5/2 is ok obviously)

hardly groundbreaking that

[Ant040689]

firstly ant excellent previews a lot of work in those

At those prices for starting strikers in almost any game i dont think you can go to far wrong

If anybody bets anything or suggest anything at bigger than 20/1 it is a pretty silly and hard to be to negative anyway.


Its not rocket science what i do with fgs at present if a side is shorter than 1/2 and the starting striker is 4/1+ i am autobetting them each way if available (even down to 5/2 is ok obviously)

hardly groundbreaking that

You know I never have understood EW FGS betting, can you explain it please? Is the place part, first and last goalscorer? The EW is not available with Bwin.

[Dubai]

Palace are around 5/1 (arguably bigger) to score first. So to work out price of fgs you simply multiply the probability of palace scoring first with the % of palace goals each player would be expected to score.

So if you think Chamakh scores 25% of Palaces goals (prob touch high) then his fgs would be 6x4=23-1

[Ant040689]

Might seem straight forward to you guys, but I am learning here, cheers. I just looked at their prices in comparison to the other bookmakers and saw quite a big discrepancy, plus was shocked about the chasm between Chelsea's and Palace's odds in the FGS and anytime markets.

Yeh I know it should be big but when a Chelsea striker is as 8 times more likely to score than a Palace one, I didn't think it was in keeping with the actual odds.

BTW I hope Chamakh kicks on and gets 8 this season to get me out of the now dodgy looking pre season tip I gave you Dubai!

[a.sparrow]

Poshies now travel to Gillingham, whose wheels have come off lately, on Saturday.

There's an ex-Posh connection here, with Charlie Lee and Chris Whelpdale two of the players that took us out of League Two a few seasons back. That's their level now, though.

Poshies are catching Gillingham at a good time, and they're catching us at a bad time. Eight scored, none conceded in the last two matches. 10-1 over 3.5 away goals, 20-1 over 4.5 away goals, both with Coral. Oi oi!

Just going through tomorrows coupon and I semi follow gills (being my closest football team) and agree that they could be in abit of trouble tomorrow.  Got reminded of chompy's post quoted above and thought I might have a little go on the two markets suggested.  Went to odds checker and you can now get  12/1 over 3.5 peterborough goals and 25/1 over 4.5 peterborough goals:

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-1/gillingham-v-peterborough/total-away-goals-over-under-3-5

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-1/gillingham-v-peterborough/total-away-goals-over-under-4-5

Thought i'd bump it for those who haven't followed or want to top up if you are sick enough to do that! 

Fwiw if Chompy thinks they are going to score  a few goals the 11/10 for peterborough to win is looking quite an appealing price to me.

[horseplayer]

http://t.co/wVL6TpOxph

excellent article on Sean Dyche

[aaron1867]

Might seem straight forward to you guys, but I am learning here, cheers. I just looked at their prices in comparison to the other bookmakers and saw quite a big discrepancy, plus was shocked about the chasm between Chelsea's and Palace's odds in the FGS and anytime markets.

Yeh I know it should be big but when a Chelsea striker is as 8 times more likely to score than a Palace one, I didn't think it was in keeping with the actual odds.

BTW I hope Chamakh kicks on and gets 8 this season to get me out of the now dodgy looking pre season tip I gave you Dubai!

Hope he doesn't.

He had scored 1 in about 12 just a couple of weeks ago

[exstream]

There were no 100+ averages tonight in darts.
How bad is this for the bet?
I don't know much about darts but am on this bet.

[JaffaCake]

All good in the hoopies at ht in game one of our two NBA games....OKC are up 15 (we need them to win by 12.5). Anyone who followed in on the Kobe assists (over 5.5), he has 6 at ht, weighed in, weighed in.