Since Holloway leaving, the home defensive performances for Crystal Palace have been superb. In the first game, they could have feasibly kept a clean sheet at home to Arsenal if it wasn't for a rash penalty to let them go 0-1 up at the start of the second half, with the first half being a pretty confident shut out, this forced Palace to be more open, eventually falling 0-2.
Next game at home was Everton, where they didn't score with no real clear cut chance to and Palace really should have won the game, ended 0-0. Then West Ham which was a comfortable 1-0 win, West Ham reduced to half chances. Cardiff was a 2-0 win, Cardiff had one glaring opportunity to score in the opening 3 mins, missed, then Palace could have gone on to score about 6, with Cardiff showing not much more else.
Away Hull were beaten 0-1 at their place by Palace, Hull previously not losing a game there all season, lost to Norwich away 1-0 where a draw would have been a fair result, lost 2-0 to West Brom away, this was quite fair, and the confidence was only starting to build upfront. And of course lost 2-1 away to Chelsea where a 2-2 may not have been out of the question but of course, Palace were outclassed for decent periods, but were constantly very tough to break down, both goals had to come from expert shots from range that not many teams in the Premier League can do to Chelsea's level. Joel Ward had kept Hazard quiet too which was impressive. He has been their standout defender.
Notice most of the games are low scoring, showing the defensive resoluteness apparent in recent games and slow build up in confidence going forward which is very promising indeed. Chance creation is becoming easier and the finishing too is, but of course they are in no way deadly, but a team high on confidence and currently getting a lot out of their strikers. Which can be seen in Palace potentially reviving Chamakh's career, showing anyone that cares to look what a class act he really can be. Jerome is even getting in on it, with great holding up play, generally, good pace and decent movement, hopefully his finishing will improve within a setup like Palace that is trying its best to use both of these guys as their outlets
The value on Palace is there at the moment. People still consider them to be bottom four fodder, and for that to continue until for the rest of the season where I think Palace have shown they have enough about them to eventually pull away. I think it is the pre-conception that people still hold that Palace have the weakest looking side, were terrible at the start of the season, so they should remain there, when really what they have shown in their games without Holloway is 8 games and 10 points. That is inclusive of games played against Everton, Arsenal, Chelsea and a Hull side that were then unbeaten at home at the time. Conceded only 7 goals in the last 8 games too.
This is a little cheeky and of course shouldn't be held in too much credence, but if you were to take the points that Palace have made since Holloway has departed and pretend that was the form that they would have maintained all season, they would be on 20 points in tenth position now, level with Swansea.
I think that assumption is not too far off. Palace I think are a 13th+ side currently having to make up for a truly pitiful start, and that is with Jerome leading the line. When Murray is fit in January, who scored 31 goals last season, perhaps the frontline is more potent.
I think this is why you should get on different Palace season long bets. I suppose the handicaps may be good but have no experience with them. To be top 15 at 7/2 and top 12 at 12/1 may be good. 15th had 41 points last season, Palace would need 28 points in 22 games, 12th last season had 43 points so 30 would be needed in 22. Obviously I know points for each position varies from year to year but that is only up there as a loose guide.
To stay up is a good bet at 5/2. 38 points generally is the safety number, Palace need 25 points to get that in 22 games. With the squad as they are, there is value there.
31 or more points at Stan James at 9/10 seems the biggest value here, Palace would need 18 points from their remaining 22 games. This is probably my pick from the bunch tbh, and one to invest heavily into.
Remember on the points front Palace have had 10 from their last 8 but that does include the team adjusting to the new regime, and in their last four under Pulis they have had 6 points from 4 games, of course the sample size here is small under Pulis. But it should be considered that their points to games ratio could be higher than 10 points from 8 games going forward into their remaining 22 games.
The total goals conceded line for Palace at over/under is at 65-66, they are on 24 currently 3 games away from the half way mark. Projected average would be 28 at the half way point, at worst, so it is quite a healthy line of an extra 10 points they are giving you. Palace avoided a spanking away to Chelsea and at home to Arsenal and aside from Man City, there shouldn't be many teams out there capable of scoring three against Palace, on their current showing, of course that could slip but I am not sure. I would invest in this market after they adjust the line after the Man City away game in 11 days time, once they do, I would definitely suggest a big bet here.
All of this is conditional on a few things though. Namely that one of Ward, Delaney, Gabbidon, Chamakh, or Jerome do not get injured. We haven’t sufficient cover to the same level as they are if they cannot play and the form would drop. And especially Mile Jedinak imo, he is a very good defensive midfielder for Palace and is doing well in the interceptions dept, just in front of the defence, if he goes, despite cover in defensive midfield, Palace may not be in form.
Despite the threat of one of those players going down, Pulis is going to invest in January and it will be interesting to see what he can do to strengthen the squad. Also, there is back up in every position, it is just that the quality will be lessened to a level you cannot be completely sure of solidity, but likelihood is that if it is only one or two injuries to the players named (which is unlikely to happen) the replacements, raise their game to the standard of those around them. I wouldn’t be shocked to see them step up as I couldn’t have genuinely thought the backline Palace do put out was capable of conceding so few goals.
All of what I have mentioned stats wise is available for everyone to see, but what I think a lot of bookies and punters alike are discrediting, is Palace’s chances of maintaining their recent form over the course of the season. Of course I think I am guilty of probably over-hyping their capability to maintain it over the season. But just look at the team sheet Pulis is dealing with and look at their output, in a lot of games the squad have looked comfortably assured in their capabilities and have looked strong. He is going to improve with signings in January too and Murray coming back is like a new signing, plus Guediora returns then and he played very well before injury as a central defensive midfielder.
Pulis’s record with Stoke shouldn’t be discounted either, he has never been relegated with them or any team.
I think psychologically too, Palace players have been through the ringer under Holloway, they have felt that nasty desolation and know all about it, and under their current spell, with the harsh experience behind them, I think they will be less likely to let their heads fall all season.
Only two recommends to you Tikay as I know Palace are a tough sell, I think the 31 points or more at 9/10 with Stan James is much too generous and would recommend max bet (£100?). Palace could still be comfortably relegated and get this bet home.
Suggest £100.
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/crystal-palace/season-points
The Palace to stay up at 5/2 with Stan James would be a half max bet for me. I think this price will get shorter, opening up a possible hedging possibility if things go well.
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/to-stay-up
Obv if not comfortable with stakes, lower it, but I think these two bets are good value.I have put up these recommends now as I think there is a possibility people stand up and take Palace seriously after a potential win on Saturday and perhaps another good result against Villa away after, to potentially get them out of the bottom three. This making people realise Palace may be better than they thought and reducing any value on them.
For the Newcastle game, with confident news we have two defensive midfielders available, I think Palace should be at most 8/5, but there is 13/5 available with VC, may I add too that, that price is ool with the rest of the bookies.
Suggest £25.http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/crystal-palace-v-newcastle/winnerNewcastle didn’t look too convincing in their last outing against Southampton at home, from memory their best 3 chances came from terrible mistakes from Southampton's defence, but their ability at shooting from range could undo Palace that like to drop deep and often invite that. Saying that they haven’t conceded in three games at home. Which makes the win to nil a good looking bet at 17/4 too, with VC.
Suggest £10http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/crystal-palace-v-newcastle/to-win-to-nilEither of those two bets are value I think on top of the two other season long bets suggested. Would suggest small nibbles as well on top 15 and top 12 but just assuming already you aren't interested lol. If you are or anyone else, it can be found near the bottom of the page on this next link
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-leagueDulwich Hamlet won yesterday against title rivals Maidstone, btw, 2-0, which has them into 11/2 best for the title, in from 9/1.
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