Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

That's brilliant, chaps. My assumptions really aren't based on much, so I'm genuinely grateful for the insight from more experienced NFLers.

Am happy to mull that over (I'll change conclusions quite freely and happily if that's what the numbers tell me to do), but I do keep coming back to the question of whether it really is a coin flip as to whether it is Team A or Team B that throws the first red flag.

Probably not a coin flip but at odds of 5/6 we have a 17% advantage to overcome.

It's only 4.55% per selection, isn't it? One eleventh combined? You're still right, of course.

I don't know. 5/6 about an even money shot looks massive to me. Perhaps Doibs could help ?

I think we can manage without Doobs, he says ambitiously...

5/6 shot wins 6 times out of every 11 played on average. That's 54.54545...% of the time.

If it only has a 50% chance of winning in reality, you are down 4.55%

The overround of a 5/6-5/6 market is 1/11th, so roughly 9%

[tikay]

I had to be nudged by my most respected Elder this week, as I have been engrossed in a new project, (which I shall just leave out there for now) that the golf restarted this week.

I have, and will continue to be an ice cream with Mr Speith as I am sure we will get a "major" return at some point soon. If he was going off at single figure odds it would not be worth it, but he has earned us some place money and I think he will reward us at decent odds to make it worthwhile soon.

No worries, it was my pleasure.

I take that as a nod that we should go ahead with the Spiethy chunk?

A nod's as good as a wink.

[moonandback]

no problem happy to do updates, in fact they had their first conference game last night at home to Washington state who they held to SEVEN points in the first half i can't recall ever seeing such a low first half total WSU got better in the second half they scored 18  final score was 60-25. i thnk WSU need to change their nickname from cougars to kittens!

[tikay]

Conference value


Disclaimer -  don't know much about Alfreton Town beyond what is publically available from league tables, results, form guides etc

I did though watch Barnet play on a terrible pitch on Wednesday, at Luton

Tomorrow they play their fourth game in nine days at home to Alfreton

During this time Alfreton were winning successive home matches while Barnet travelled to Salisbury and Luton


Alfreton have five straight wins and have risen to third in the table

Barnet three straight defeats


The prices for this game? Barnet 11/10, Alfreton 14/5!


---

Hereford United have lost 2 of 8 and are away at Woking tomorrow

Woking had two lads on loan in the first half of the season, scored 15 goals between them, Both have gone now though one back to parent club one into the football league

http://nonleague.pitchero.com/news/woking-lose-loan-strikers-27869/


Prices for this one


Woking 5/4 Hereford 14/5!



Can't see how either away team are nearly 3-1 here


Suggest a chunky (copyright Chompy) away win double (copyright edgascoigne) (or two singles if you must)

Excellent work.

Two SINGLES placed, a chunky on each.

Now, to prove I am open-minded (I'm not) & receptive to good ideas (I'm not), and not stubborn (I am) if someone wants to convince me that this is a good double, then I'll place a Double, too.

Off you go lads......

2 BETS PLACED

[tikay]

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/hyundai-tournament-of-champions/winner

This starts in 40 mins and I think it might be worth a little. £10e/w on Jordan Spieth Corals still 22-1 (just beats bf) Although debutants do not fair well on this course I was reading an article the other day that thought Jordan might be an exception to that rule because his putting has been so good. Past winners have not faired particularly well in driving distances, but the course by all accounts is quite high for greens in regulation. If Jordan is on form with his putting then this is the sort of tournament he should be winning.

The best price has gone for Adam Scott who was 7.1 with earlier in the week.  Although after a win in November I've also had a little tickle on Harris English who seems to be in abit of form.

Not much time to decide so you might have to make the decision if it's a bet or not.

£10 e/w Spieth
£5e/w English both 22-1

OK Ommy, I tried to get some feedback, & eventually no less than Adzy came to the rescue, so we are all aboard, exactly as above.

Thanks, & good luck us. Keep us updated, please, if you are able.

2 BETS PLACED

[edgascoigne]

RECOMMEND: £10 double Alfreton 27/10 and Hereford 14/5 with VC.

Bit tiddle-arsey for my liking but start small and all that...

[horseplayer]

had two emails from bwin this morning

first one says bet stands if they qualify for champions league

second one says bet is top two only


they havent a clue imo

[TightEnd]

2 x £10 win singles = chunky, it seems



With notional roll starting at £3k and over £5k of profits since, there's definitely an argument for upping stakes as we are off a bigger bank than we were in January 2012.......

[sonour]

On the NFL stuff, I am trying to write up every play off match-up so I don't think for this thread, which should be more selective, that people should be blanket-backing each recommendation. The bets (KC+2.5 for example) are my view but I wouldn't claim any great mis-pricing. Note I didn't put them on here

There is probably more value in the sub markets for the individual games

For example on Sunday the peak temperature in Green Bay is expected to be -10c, with wind chill taking field temperature to -30c.

Green Bay play the 49ers and both will have no choice but to run it a lot

The 49ers have Frank Gore, a really punishing runner behind one of the league's best lines

The Packers have rookie Eddie Lacy who is a real load

Both could score multiple touchdowns in the game, though preference is for Gore because the Packers run defense is lacking compared to what Lacy will have to face

So if Paddy Power for example do offers like double odds if he scores twice etc, then thats the way to get value in these games 

Hi Tighty,

Any way you could indicate which bets you really fancy on Betpal please ?

[tikay]

Conference value


Disclaimer -  don't know much about Alfreton Town beyond what is publically available from league tables, results, form guides etc

I did though watch Barnet play on a terrible pitch on Wednesday, at Luton

Tomorrow they play their fourth game in nine days at home to Alfreton

During this time Alfreton were winning successive home matches while Barnet travelled to Salisbury and Luton


Alfreton have five straight wins and have risen to third in the table

Barnet three straight defeats


The prices for this game? Barnet 11/10, Alfreton 14/5!


---

Hereford United have lost 2 of 8 and are away at Woking tomorrow

Woking had two lads on loan in the first half of the season, scored 15 goals between them, Both have gone now though one back to parent club one into the football league

http://nonleague.pitchero.com/news/woking-lose-loan-strikers-27869/


Prices for this one


Woking 5/4 Hereford 14/5!



Can't see how either away team are nearly 3-1 here


Suggest a chunky (copyright Chompy) away win double (copyright edgascoigne) (or two singles if you must)

Excellent work.

Two SINGLES placed, a chunky on each.

Now, to prove I am open-minded (I'm not) & receptive to good ideas (I'm not), and not stubborn (I am) if someone wants to convince me that this is a good double, then I'll place a Double, too.

Off you go lads......

2 BETS PLACED

The thing is.....if we have faith in Rich's selections (which we should, given his proven ROI, selection of relatively niche markets for recommends where a positive expectation is highly feasible, knowledge of the subject matter) then we are right to bet them as singles.

If we are right to bet the two of them as singles....we should definitely have a tickle of a double. From a purely £ev perspective the double should actually be a larger bet....though from a utility/morale standpoint it probably makes sense to have a smaller stake compared to the two singles. If you are betting £25 each of them for example I would definitely conseil a £10 double.

OK, I'm a man of my word, so we will do a Double on these two.

Slight problem here is that Tighty never recomended how much to bet, an increasing habit by many of late, & I use that as a measure of confidence during my scientific head-scratching process.  He just said "a chunky", which I believe is Fred-speak for a tenner, so we had £10 on each.

That makes the maths for the amount in the double a bit awkward, but we'll have a £5 double now. I acknowledge that is a bit askew, but it's just an experiment, & I'll take the blame if it goes wrong.

For fairness, we would need to do a string of doubles in the coming weeks & months, but how many? 10? 20? I doubt 50 is enough to make, or not, the case. Actually, we all know the case is made, in favour of Lord Ed G, but I just don't like them, & then there is that volatility thing & our limited 'roll.
 

[tikay]

RECOMMEND: £10 double Alfreton 27/10 and Hereford 14/5 with VC.

Bit tiddle-arsey for my liking but start small and all that...

Ahh, a bit late, see my previous on the matter.

I have not placed the double yet, so shall we go a bit silly, & try a £10 double?

[tikay]

BOOM!


£10 WIN DOUBLE

Hereford United @ 14/5(Match Betting)
Alfreton Town @ 27/10(Match Betting)
Multiple Type: Double Stake: 10.00Possible Return: 140.60


DOUBLE PLACED

[tikay]

Conference value


Disclaimer -  don't know much about Alfreton Town beyond what is publically available from league tables, results, form guides etc

I did though watch Barnet play on a terrible pitch on Wednesday, at Luton

Tomorrow they play their fourth game in nine days at home to Alfreton

During this time Alfreton were winning successive home matches while Barnet travelled to Salisbury and Luton


Alfreton have five straight wins and have risen to third in the table

Barnet three straight defeats


The prices for this game? Barnet 11/10, Alfreton 14/5!


---

Hereford United have lost 2 of 8 and are away at Woking tomorrow

Woking had two lads on loan in the first half of the season, scored 15 goals between them, Both have gone now though one back to parent club one into the football league

http://nonleague.pitchero.com/news/woking-lose-loan-strikers-27869/


Prices for this one


Woking 5/4 Hereford 14/5!



Can't see how either away team are nearly 3-1 here


Suggest a chunky (copyright Chompy) away win double (copyright edgascoigne) (or two singles if you must)

Just as an aside, how on earth did you "happen" to spot those two games, deep in the bowels of tomorrow's football programme, not to mention umpteen other sports?

Was it a wake up in the night & do a Post It note jobbie?

Love to see inside the minds of folks like you & hector, I really would. Also War Ant Peace, sometimes.....

[sonour]

That's brilliant, chaps. My assumptions really aren't based on much, so I'm genuinely grateful for the insight from more experienced NFLers.

Am happy to mull that over (I'll change conclusions quite freely and happily if that's what the numbers tell me to do), but I do keep coming back to the question of whether it really is a coin flip as to whether it is Team A or Team B that throws the first red flag.

Probably not a coin flip but at odds of 5/6 we have a 17% advantage to overcome.

It's only 4.55% per selection, isn't it? One eleventh combined? You're still right, of course.

I don't know. 5/6 about an even money shot looks massive to me. Perhaps Doibs could help ?

I think we can manage without Doobs, he says ambitiously...

5/6 shot wins 6 times out of every 11 played on average. That's 54.54545...% of the time.

If it only has a 50% chance of winning in reality, you are down 4.55%

The overround of a 5/6-5/6 market is 1/11th, so roughly 9%

Thanks

[tikay]

Ugh, I feel so dirty.

Marky & Dubai would approve, though. I could even be a hero soon.