Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Perri 6/5 Splash with Betfred.  Think anything above evens is good.  Got my 50 on. 

Ladbrokes up now...going 5/4

I did take some 6/4 when suggested but I would utter one phrase.....beware the Gumball Factor.

Well yes.......

We have £150 on now, & I think that's plenty enough. And tonight, God forbid, CBB starts......

[Tal]

In the world of flamboyant, matching pyjamas, the Sydney Snort Thrusters lost to the Perth Ocelots, continuing their impressive run.

Was that the 10/11 shots you mentioned?

I sort of forget it what with all the energy in the thread today.

It was only in passing. More highlighting just how bad the run has been.

No rain yet in Brum, but it looks like there will be soon. If it properly tips down, the Hall Green outside traps bias might be working again.

[BigAdz]

I agree with Keith re Ed's post too and of course if anyone is going to spot an angle in the Prem/other leagues once the teams are out it is Keith. There have been spots over the year where you abs should have had multiples Tony. One of the darts guys put up a bet on under the averages in the Dubai darts because the event was taking place on an outdoor stage and would be wind affected. In that spot all the averages were likely to be in too high and I think the under won in most of them. It was like betting weather related multiples in day NFL or Rugger where you are either on the right side of every bet because the weather does become a factor or you just have to win if it doesn't. So your value is multiplied thru each event.

There were a couple of footy matches on the last day of the Championship season that had a direct baring on each other, if one team was winning then the 2 teams in the other game would be happy with a draw and as it happened those two teams spent the last part of that game passing it around in defence to run the clock out as their fans chanted 'Yorkshire Yorkshire' and had a communal love in as Chompy's boys went down.

Tal posted summat the other day regarding outside trap bias at a dog meeting, back in the day Monmore used to have an amazing bias to the outside when it was very cold. We used to watch the first set of races and if there was a bias we would bet the outside traps on the early birds in the late races ( in those days they priced up the last 4 or so because the horse racing would have finished by then) and do muitis, fcast, fcast doubles etc. 99% of the time they are mug bets but if you think you have a bias or an angle like these examples you have to consider multi's.

But Phil, I dont know how to seperate the wheat from the chaff unless Elders step in & advise. You are a Sports Betting Pro, it's almost instinct to you. To me, it's beyond my ability to know.

So we now have THREE areas to address.

redarmi said a while back we should take lesser edges but have more bets. For example, instead of our 2,500 bets yielding 5%, we'd be better doing 5,000 bets @ 3%. I agree entirely, but where do Tighty, & I, Mere to a degree too, find the time to manage a doubled workload?

Multiples. You know my views, everyone does, but fine, the Pros know better, I accept that. But how do I know which is or is not a good value double? I don't have the knowledge to identify them.

Upping the stakes. See my reply earlier today. Not one person has replied to me yet.......

Why not work in tandem with an appointed "Elder" a day each week. Most appear to be Pro Bettors and Im sure are fairly close at hand to TFT for the majority of at least a day each week. Get some sort of rota going so they can pass comment/sanction/rubber stamp/stand in and should at least provide assistance for around a min of 4 days a week.

Im sure they aren't all up themselves enough to think it is below them....

[tikay]

In the world of flamboyant, matching pyjamas, the Sydney Snort Thrusters lost to the Perth Ocelots, continuing their impressive run.

Was that the 10/11 shots you mentioned?

I sort of forget it what with all the energy in the thread today.

It was only in passing. More highlighting just how bad the run has been.

No rain yet in Brum, but it looks like there will be soon. If it properly tips down, the Hall Green outside traps bias might be working again.

112 x 10 rev Forecast Doubles looms into view then........

In weather related matters for those that follow it, it has been torrential rain in West London for 2 hours solid now, roads are flooded, everything is awash., & it rained most of last night. Quagmire incoming.

[horseplayer]

Sandown off tommorow

[edgascoigne]

For a 'back of a fag packet' multiple guide I would suggest running any options through the following checks.

[ ] Are we stonewall confident that the bet represents value? Think about: Past track record of poster, past track record of poster on particular sport (if sufficient data), poster confidence etc.
[ ] Are we lucky enough to have a means of 'confirming' the bet is value? Think about: stand out price, rick to the exchange (where decent liquidity), each-way race where terms in punter's favour etc.
[ ] Is there a particular factor at play that sees the bets take a form of 'related contingency'? Think: Are we backing the unders in rugby cos it't hacked down everywhere? Are we opposing Henderson jollies because the yard has a problem? Are we punting a draw bias etc.

If you hit one of them hard I would play a multiple. If you hit a couple hard up the stakes a bit. If you hit all three, get yer barrow out the shed.




As for whether I could take any involvement with thread I'm afraid not. I've now left the world of gambling and am in the latter stages of training for a proper job. Gulp. That and the fact I'm all fart and no sh....

[simonnatur]

Perri 6/5 Splash with Betfred.  Think anything above evens is good.  Got my 50 on. 

Ladbrokes up now...going 5/4

Can anyone clarify the bet, Is it to win the series or heat? Am I right in thinking there are 15 or so runners in total, some yet to be confirmed? (only had a quick plance at this )

[bobby1]

''''A lot of the Restricted stuff is on Markets where only PP & 365 have markets up, horse race prices the night before, for example, & nobody else offers the Market that early.  

And have you seen the grief I get when I take a nadge uder "Best Price", someone is guaranteed to Post minutes later "you coulda got a better price with x"!

I don't believe the stakes decrease towards the end of a winning month, not that I am aware. I try to encourage people to suggest stakes. If, say, Bazza recommends a boxer & says £20, or £50, I believe that suggests his confidence in the bet. I HAVE to listen to that. Unfortunately, many folks still do not give me a recommended bet size. More headaches ensue, then. It is far easier for me to modify a proposed bet size, then for me to guess at how much to bet. But that is just the official "FRED", which is really just a scorecard, the mortar in the brickwork sort of thing. Others who follow Fred can bet as big as they like, or feel comfy with. Me, I'm scared, I really am. Don't forget, this is real money I'm punting with, & I'm relying on info from others when I bet.''''

On some of those small side markets you won't get on anywhere else and that's certainly a blow. As for bet sizes it should deffo be down to the poster to suggest a size for those reasons. It gives a sense of confidence and makes it easier for you, we know they wont all win and some will be speculative  but not all 5/1 chances put up by the same person would have the same strength to them so need to have stakes suggested really.

Don't be scared with the cash Tony, you are a winning punter and there are plenty of good judges contributing to your bet list. It's a great position really because you are the centrepiece of the info exchange that takes place, its a great spot to be in. Honest truth, I had abs nothing to do with some of the best bets I have had this week, they were given to me by someone else who is a good judge, in this thread you are getting that many times over.

[Omm]

Tikay

I certainly feel that i am not in a position to comment on some of the thiuld only be considered if it is suggested by an Elder with the maths to back it up. ngs you have questioned. A few things a do know, adding multiples should only be considered if an elder suggests it so that u are comfortable knowing it has come from a trustworthy source or pro as some might say.

More importantly i do not think u sharing this with someone will work, ive thought about it and cant see how it cann be done. For me this is all u or nothing. Possibly if it needs to be less then u have to make that call without people taking offence ie the value in betting a prem team vs what tighty posted earlier. I personally do not bet evwrything that is put on Fred, my choice, i just dont like backing short favs, i will, but not often. For me Fred us about that basketball bet earlier, ive even done the80-1 because i liked the write up.

Finally im sure if needed i could.help out somehow, just not sure how or when yet which is why i havent said anuthing, although when im ready i will (have wrote this on my phone so spelling mistakes are a given, sorry).

[tikay]

I agree with Keith re Ed's post too and of course if anyone is going to spot an angle in the Prem/other leagues once the teams are out it is Keith. There have been spots over the year where you abs should have had multiples Tony. One of the darts guys put up a bet on under the averages in the Dubai darts because the event was taking place on an outdoor stage and would be wind affected. In that spot all the averages were likely to be in too high and I think the under won in most of them. It was like betting weather related multiples in day NFL or Rugger where you are either on the right side of every bet because the weather does become a factor or you just have to win if it doesn't. So your value is multiplied thru each event.

There were a couple of footy matches on the last day of the Championship season that had a direct baring on each other, if one team was winning then the 2 teams in the other game would be happy with a draw and as it happened those two teams spent the last part of that game passing it around in defence to run the clock out as their fans chanted 'Yorkshire Yorkshire' and had a communal love in as Chompy's boys went down.

Tal posted summat the other day regarding outside trap bias at a dog meeting, back in the day Monmore used to have an amazing bias to the outside when it was very cold. We used to watch the first set of races and if there was a bias we would bet the outside traps on the early birds in the late races ( in those days they priced up the last 4 or so because the horse racing would have finished by then) and do muitis, fcast, fcast doubles etc. 99% of the time they are mug bets but if you think you have a bias or an angle like these examples you have to consider multi's.

But Phil, I dont know how to seperate the wheat from the chaff unless Elders step in & advise. You are a Sports Betting Pro, it's almost instinct to you. To me, it's beyond my ability to know.

So we now have THREE areas to address.

redarmi said a while back we should take lesser edges but have more bets. For example, instead of our 2,500 bets yielding 5%, we'd be better doing 5,000 bets @ 3%. I agree entirely, but where do Tighty, & I, Mere to a degree too, find the time to manage a doubled workload?

Multiples. You know my views, everyone does, but fine, the Pros know better, I accept that. But how do I know which is or is not a good value double? I don't have the knowledge to identify them.

Upping the stakes. See my reply earlier today. Not one person has replied to me yet.......

Why not work in tandem with an appointed "Elder" a day each week. Most appear to be Pro Bettors and Im sure are fairly close at hand to TFT for the majority of at least a day each week. Get some sort of rota going so they can pass comment/sanction/rubber stamp/stand in and should at least provide assistance for around a min of 4 days a week.
Im sure they aren't all up themselves enough to think it is below them....

Thanks Adz, that's a start.

I would certainly, 100%, like some help from the Elders & Betters. But I'm not sure "in tandem" works, it would be pretty awkward I think, but I'd happily step aside from the decisions x days per week. They place the bet themselves though, & it becomes an official Fred bet, is that the suggestion? If so, no objection from me.

In case anyone forgets, we are doing pretty well so far, most punters would die for a 5% return, but I do think we need to do this self-examine thing from time to time, & try to find ways to improve. And we must never forget the Fun Factor. Without that, I'd be outa here tomorrow, for me (maybe just me) it has to be fun. 

[horseplayer]

Pretty sure i posted the same this time last year

This is not supposed to be a thread guiding people how to be a pro punter, pretty sure the majority of viewers and even the most regular contributors are not pro's (myself, Hector, Tighty and Adz are 4 of the most frequent tipsters as far as im aware none of us are full time correct me if im wrong)

Yes perhaps the stakes needs sticking up a bit but if that makes some of the more regular contributors less likely to stick stuff up that is not a good thing for the future of thread.

A large proportion of people betting would bite your arm of for a 5% roi over this long a period

[tikay]

Sandown off tommorow

Not in the least surprised, it is seriously wet down here.

So, can we exploit that in any particular market? Hall Green cherries was one suggestion, any more?

[tikay]

Pretty sure i posted the same this time last year

This is not supposed to be a thread guiding people how to be a pro punter, pretty sure the majority of viewers and even the most regular contributors are not pro's (myself, Hector, Tighty and Adz are 4 of the most frequent tipsters as far as im aware none of us are full time correct me if im wrong)

Yes perhaps the stakes needs sticking up a bit but if that makes some of the more regular contributors less likely to stick stuff up that is not a good thing for the future of thread.

A large proportion of people betting would bite your arm of for a 5% roi over this long a period

I know of several regulars who have asked me not to increase their bet sizes, as it makes them uncomfy. I have to respect that, or we lose them.

[tikay]

Perri 6/5 Splash with Betfred.  Think anything above evens is good.  Got my 50 on. 

Ladbrokes up now...going 5/4

Can anyone clarify the bet, Is it to win the series or heat? Am I right in thinking there are 15 or so runners in total, some yet to be confirmed? (only had a quick plance at this )

It is "Outright".

PS - Will reply to your PM soonest, (thank you!) but inundated at the mo, sorry.

[tikay]

For a 'back of a fag packet' multiple guide I would suggest running any options through the following checks.

[ ] Are we stonewall confident that the bet represents value? Think about: Past track record of poster, past track record of poster on particular sport (if sufficient data), poster confidence etc.
[ ] Are we lucky enough to have a means of 'confirming' the bet is value? Think about: stand out price, rick to the exchange (where decent liquidity), each-way race where terms in punter's favour etc.
[ ] Is there a particular factor at play that sees the bets take a form of 'related contingency'? Think: Are we backing the unders in rugby cos it't hacked down everywhere? Are we opposing Henderson jollies because the yard has a problem? Are we punting a draw bias etc.

If you hit one of them hard I would play a multiple. If you hit a couple hard up the stakes a bit. If you hit all three, get yer barrow out the shed.




As for whether I could take any involvement with thread I'm afraid not. I've now left the world of gambling and am in the latter stages of training for a proper job. Gulp. That and the fact I'm all fart and no sh....

That's very helpful Ed, thank you.