Tips for Tikay

[Marky147]

Are Arsenal a bet or lay at 1/1?  Its a bit late in the day to discuss this in any great depth I make them a lay given the look of the team, I foresee much pretty football and lots of passing in the final 3rd but no cutting edge in front of goal.  

For me, it's a watch and hope that the game isn't a draw.

[Longy]

Green Bay have their pocket slinging QB, Aaron Rodgers back, plus Randall Cobb. San Francisco have their offence on full bore too.

This game is the outsider of the weekend's four to be the highest scoring at 4/1 with BMU.

Saints @ Eagles obviously has potential to be a big one, but I don't understand why the other two games are more likely to have the biggest total.

Indy game will be indoors, so not affected by the weather. Cincy have been putting up big numbers at home. Niners are a good defensive side playing in terrible conditions (saw a pic of lambeau today and the field looked a mess) and Rodgers probs not back to 100%.

Is probably the bookies reasoning, doesn't seem like a bad bet per se it can't be amazing value though IMO.

[Tonji]

Alexis Pinturault. Has found some form & a better ski set up in Slalom with a 1st & 2nd in the FIS race in France after Christmas. The World Cup is a step up in class & he has a string of DNFs, but results in Giant Slalom (his speciality) for the past year have been top notch (14 1 3 3 2 5 4 2).

A touch on the banzai side, but form & confidence together can see him compete for the win if he can avoid mistakes & break his run of DNFs.

PP are best tiddlearse at 22/1, BWIN at 20/1 ok also imo.

http://www.oddschecker.com/winter-sports/alpine-skiing/mens-alpine:-bormio-slalom/winner

Top 3 at 9/2 also seems ok, but I've gone FTW.

[millidonk]

Alexis Pinturault. Has found some form & a better ski set up in Slalom with a 1st & 2nd in the FIS race in France after Christmas. The World Cup is a step up in class & he has a string of DNFs, but results in Giant Slalom (his speciality) for the past year have been top notch (14 1 3 3 2 5 4 2).

A touch on the banzai side, but form & confidence together can see him compete for the win if he can avoid mistakes & break his run of DNFs.

PP are best tiddlearse at 22/1, BWIN at 20/1 ok also imo.

http://www.oddschecker.com/winter-sports/alpine-skiing/mens-alpine:-bormio-slalom/winner

Top 3 at 9/2 also seems ok, but I've gone FTW.

Tried getting on. Market looks to have been pulled for him.

[millidonk]

Back up. Now 14/1. Who got it?

[Karabiner]

Santi baby

[Karabiner]

Rocky with the delicious dink 

[tikay]

Green Bay have their pocket slinging QB, Aaron Rodgers back, plus Randall Cobb. San Francisco have their offence on full bore too.

This game is the outsider of the weekend's four to be the highest scoring at 4/1 with BMU.

Saints @ Eagles obviously has potential to be a big one, but I don't understand why the other two games are more likely to have the biggest total.

Excellent, thanks Simon, we've invested £25.


BET PLACED

[tikay]

Alexis Pinturault. Has found some form & a better ski set up in Slalom with a 1st & 2nd in the FIS race in France after Christmas. The World Cup is a step up in class & he has a string of DNFs, but results in Giant Slalom (his speciality) for the past year have been top notch (14 1 3 3 2 5 4 2).

A touch on the banzai side, but form & confidence together can see him compete for the win if he can avoid mistakes & break his run of DNFs.

PP are best tiddlearse at 22/1, BWIN at 20/1 ok also imo.

http://www.oddschecker.com/winter-sports/alpine-skiing/mens-alpine:-bormio-slalom/winner

Top 3 at 9/2 also seems ok, but I've gone FTW.

Thanks Tonji, let's have another snow-bloke thing.

We have backed both bets.

2 BETS PLACED

[Ironside]

I have spent quite a bit of time on todays football cards I have a few selections were I just think the price is plane wrong and I have 1 from Scotland were I think the books have been lazy. 

FA Cup - happy for these to be corrected by anyone.  I started off by pricing up each game and then scoured the net for prices. 

Southampton v Burnley - I had Burnley in at 9/2 chances, still a big price  but was shocked to see we can get 6/1 with a number of the books.  I am not saying this is 100% value but instinctively the price just seems off.  I think Southampton are being priced on the back of their early season form but they have been well out of sorts of late. 

Stoke v Leicester - I think I read on here before that the Championship sides would be pushing for cup runs to help balance the books due to the new fair play rules however, my line of thought on this game was that Pearson was more likely to make changes in this match than Mark Hughes. I think promotion to the Premier League is far more important to Leicester than any cup game.  Leicester have a bigger squad than most Championship sides and I am sure Tight End will be able to offer some guidance here but I think some of the rotations they make are questionable.  I made Stoke around the 11/8 and we can beat that in a number of spots.  I think the books have priced this game up on Leicester fielding their strongest XI I personally expect changes and for tthat reason I am backing Stoke.  I might top up on my single or reverse my position when team news is out though. 

Barnsley v Coventry - This for me was more of a coin flip, Barnsley are another team shot in confidence and Danny Wilson hasn't worked his magic on return - as of yet - Stephen Pressley on the otherhand is an inspirational leader.  I dont particularly like him but I think his record as a manager/player is pretty decent.  As a player he done well in cup competitions, in Scotland as a manager he took all competitions seriously.  He is in charge of a team that is playing some good football just now they are scoring goals and generally doing ok.  I thought the 9/4 we can get with Betfair is a really nice price. 

Hamilton v Queen of the South - I think this is a classic piece of lazy bookmaking.  This game has been priced up purely on league positions.  Queens had a really poor start to the season.  They had lost a manager who had got them promoted and wone a cup competition and brought in a guy who lacked experience.  However over the past 2 months things have started to come together, they have picked up decent points against teams who's league positions have been better.  In addition to that they have recently picked up their first away win since October in tricky conditions at Cowdenbeath.  Hamilton on the otherhand had a really good start to the season but over the past 2 months the wheels have come off, they did beat Queens at Palmerston in a game that QOS dominated.  The 14/5 available with Coral is a stand out.

My bets are a bit ice creamy today, as was pointed out yesterday its good to give a bit of action to books to keep accounts active ;-)

£2 Lucky 15 Burnley 6/1, Stoke 13/10, Coventry 15/8 (sigh), Queen of the South 13/5
Lay Southampton £40 @ 1.55
Back Stoke £50 @7/5
Back Coventry @ £30 @9/4
Back QoS £25 @ 14/5

These are not all selections for Fred, but I wouldn't put you off.   If i were to suggest that Fred got involved I think the best bets are Stoke and QoS.

Multiples, accas, we love 'em. PUNISH THEM.

All aboard the Lucky 15, woo-woo.

BET PLACED

Southampton haven't been out of sorts still been playing well  had a relative easy start to season  and then played a lot of the big teams back to back fixture list is about to get easier for them and they will soon be picking up points again

I can't agree with that assessment Ironside.  I have watched a numberof Southampton games and they haven't looked as slick in the last few games as they did in the early part of the season.  Even if fixtures have been a bit more difficult I think they have played poorly, defensively they have been slack and going forward not as slick imo. 

southamptons games this season most recent games at top

Premier League    Southampton 0-3 Chelsea
   Premier League    Everton 2-1 Southampton
   Premier League    Cardiff 0-3 Southampton
   Premier League    Southampton 2-3 Tottenham
   Premier League    Newcastle 1-1 Southampton
   Premier League    Southampton 1-1 Man City
   Premier League    Southampton 2-3 Aston Villa
   Premier League    Chelsea 3-1 Southampton
   Premier League    Arsenal 2-0 Southampton
   Premier League    Southampton 4-1 Hull
   Premier League    Stoke 1-1 Southampton
   Premier League    Southampton 2-0 Fulham
   Premier League    Man Utd 1-1 Southampton
   Premier League    Southampton 2-0 Swansea
   Premier League    Southampton 2-0 Crystal Palace
   Premier League    Liverpool 0-1 Southampton
   Premier League    Southampton 0-0 West Ham
   Premier League    Norwich 1-0 Southampton
   Premier League    Southampton 1-1 Sunderland
   Premier League    West Brom 0-1 Southampton


last 8 games they have played 7 teams that are expected too finish in top 10, they beat cardiff the 1/8 team not expected too be in top 10
in all of those games they have played well but and could of should of won some of those game but have not been helped by lack of goalkeeper cover
for boruc who go injuried while 1-0 up against chelsea
there fixture list get slightly easier again with the big matches spread out and should comartably finish 9th+

i watch as much as southampton as i can and i am still impressed with there football even in defeats
they are having the lion share of possesion in most of the games they play and converting it to chances too
although with the 3rd choice keeper who is 21 playing they are not as solid at the back as they are with boruc

i imagine for the next few weeks southampton will be value in the markets as people wrongly think they are on a slump of form
in the next 10 games they play only 2 teams that will finish in the top 10 both of them at home
and with boruc due back from injury in the next week or 2 i would be recomending betting on the saints pciking up 20+ points in the next 10 games
before a tough run in saints should finish the year with 50+ points and enough for top 9 finish

[GreekWay]

For anyone interested I have placed a tenner on the under 190.5 total points on the Bulls v Hawks match tonight. Bulls without Rose and with Boozer doubtfull have completed 10 matches in a row where they havent score more than 80 points. Hawks played yesterday night and got beaten by a 3-point buzzer beater.

For some reason all the firms offer odds of 1.91 on the unders but skybet offer odds of evens. Possible error? We shall see.

[Doobs]

There are only 6 runners in the Newcastle 1.40 & seems a perfect place to use the William Hill "free bet if second".

I don't really have any particular thoughts apart from avoiding K-King as we have lost a significant value in backing that horse. I would be really happy to back Bertie Milan and is just about best price with hills at 5-1, 11-2 in one place. It could be a possible entry to use the free bet, but perhaps better used elsewhere imo.

Suggest £20 on Bertie Milan with Hills, if not already on that race.

Thanks Aaron.

Not had time to check the race, but we are on. (£25, not £20)

BET PLACED

surely we can do better than this?

very little analysis in the recommendation, which was particularly wishy washy with not a single reason given why we should back it apart from "I would be really happy to back it"?


sorry, but I though we avoided general ice-cream stuff?

We get very little analysis from Doobs, but they are still backed.

We got a decent price, bigger than SP & there was no way we could have backed the winner anyway.

I think perhaps you are just trying to find faults for the sake of it. Bet was definitely fine.

Under the offer I back short price horses.  I explained the reason why in the maths of betting thread.

 If we back an even money chance that is 11/10 or 6/5 elsewhere, we still crush because we effectively get 7/4 on a 6/5 chance.  Getting 7/4 on a 6/5 chance should give us over 20% ROI long run.  In the circumstances arguing why one even money chance is better than another is just a waste of everyone's time.  Sometimes I'll pick some real howlers, but most of the time the margin is do big I am going to get value.

If we start backing 5/1 chances that we know are 11/2 elsewhere and may well be close to 6/1 on Betfair then we aren't crushing at all.  We are backing horses whose real odds are close to 6/1 at close to 6/1 and creating lots of admin in doing so.  Whilst we may get a couple of percent long run doing so, it isnt worth the hassle to do it on thread.  Off thread I tend to go up to 4/1 if the Betfair odds are close to 4/1 or if I strongly fancy something and Hills are best.

[Marky147]

Go on our Gemma

Lets just hope she doesn't need some new bolt ons after!

[The Camel]

Couple of mini semi tiddlearse suggestions

Paddy's first td offer:

£5 Zach Ertz @ 16/1 (Philly)

And VC haven't updated their top scoring team for the huge line move in the Indy/KC match.

8/1 KC has to be a bet. Suggest a tenner.

[Karabiner]

I have spent quite a bit of time on todays football cards I have a few selections were I just think the price is plane wrong and I have 1 from Scotland were I think the books have been lazy. 

FA Cup - happy for these to be corrected by anyone.  I started off by pricing up each game and then scoured the net for prices. 

Southampton v Burnley - I had Burnley in at 9/2 chances, still a big price  but was shocked to see we can get 6/1 with a number of the books.  I am not saying this is 100% value but instinctively the price just seems off.  I think Southampton are being priced on the back of their early season form but they have been well out of sorts of late. 

Stoke v Leicester - I think I read on here before that the Championship sides would be pushing for cup runs to help balance the books due to the new fair play rules however, my line of thought on this game was that Pearson was more likely to make changes in this match than Mark Hughes. I think promotion to the Premier League is far more important to Leicester than any cup game.  Leicester have a bigger squad than most Championship sides and I am sure Tight End will be able to offer some guidance here but I think some of the rotations they make are questionable.  I made Stoke around the 11/8 and we can beat that in a number of spots.  I think the books have priced this game up on Leicester fielding their strongest XI I personally expect changes and for tthat reason I am backing Stoke.  I might top up on my single or reverse my position when team news is out though. 

Barnsley v Coventry - This for me was more of a coin flip, Barnsley are another team shot in confidence and Danny Wilson hasn't worked his magic on return - as of yet - Stephen Pressley on the otherhand is an inspirational leader.  I dont particularly like him but I think his record as a manager/player is pretty decent.  As a player he done well in cup competitions, in Scotland as a manager he took all competitions seriously.  He is in charge of a team that is playing some good football just now they are scoring goals and generally doing ok.  I thought the 9/4 we can get with Betfair is a really nice price. 

Hamilton v Queen of the South - I think this is a classic piece of lazy bookmaking.  This game has been priced up purely on league positions.  Queens had a really poor start to the season.  They had lost a manager who had got them promoted and wone a cup competition and brought in a guy who lacked experience.  However over the past 2 months things have started to come together, they have picked up decent points against teams who's league positions have been better.  In addition to that they have recently picked up their first away win since October in tricky conditions at Cowdenbeath.  Hamilton on the otherhand had a really good start to the season but over the past 2 months the wheels have come off, they did beat Queens at Palmerston in a game that QOS dominated.  The 14/5 available with Coral is a stand out.

My bets are a bit ice creamy today, as was pointed out yesterday its good to give a bit of action to books to keep accounts active ;-)

£2 Lucky 15 Burnley 6/1, Stoke 13/10, Coventry 15/8 (sigh), Queen of the South 13/5
Lay Southampton £40 @ 1.55
Back Stoke £50 @7/5
Back Coventry @ £30 @9/4
Back QoS £25 @ 14/5

These are not all selections for Fred, but I wouldn't put you off.   If i were to suggest that Fred got involved I think the best bets are Stoke and QoS.

Multiples, accas, we love 'em. PUNISH THEM.

All aboard the Lucky 15, woo-woo.

BET PLACED

Southampton haven't been out of sorts still been playing well  had a relative easy start to season  and then played a lot of the big teams back to back fixture list is about to get easier for them and they will soon be picking up points again

I can't agree with that assessment Ironside.  I have watched a numberof Southampton games and they haven't looked as slick in the last few games as they did in the early part of the season.  Even if fixtures have been a bit more difficult I think they have played poorly, defensively they have been slack and going forward not as slick imo. 

southamptons games this season most recent games at top

Premier League    Southampton 0-3 Chelsea
   Premier League    Everton 2-1 Southampton
   Premier League    Cardiff 0-3 Southampton
   Premier League    Southampton 2-3 Tottenham
   Premier League    Newcastle 1-1 Southampton
   Premier League    Southampton 1-1 Man City
   Premier League    Southampton 2-3 Aston Villa
   Premier League    Chelsea 3-1 Southampton
   Premier League    Arsenal 2-0 Southampton
   Premier League    Southampton 4-1 Hull
   Premier League    Stoke 1-1 Southampton
   Premier League    Southampton 2-0 Fulham
   Premier League    Man Utd 1-1 Southampton
   Premier League    Southampton 2-0 Swansea
   Premier League    Southampton 2-0 Crystal Palace
   Premier League    Liverpool 0-1 Southampton
   Premier League    Southampton 0-0 West Ham
   Premier League    Norwich 1-0 Southampton
   Premier League    Southampton 1-1 Sunderland
   Premier League    West Brom 0-1 Southampton


last 8 games they have played 7 teams that are expected too finish in top 10, they beat cardiff the 1/8 team not expected too be in top 10
in all of those games they have played well but and could of should of won some of those game but have not been helped by lack of goalkeeper cover
for boruc who go injuried while 1-0 up against chelsea
there fixture list get slightly easier again with the big matches spread out and should comartably finish 9th+

i watch as much as southampton as i can and i am still impressed with there football even in defeats
they are having the lion share of possesion in most of the games they play and converting it too chances to
although with the 3rd choice keeper who is 21 playing they are not as solid at the back as they are with boruc

i imagine for the next few weeks southampton will be value in the markets as people wrongly think they are on a slump of form
in the next 10 games they play only 2 teams that will finish in the top 10 both of them at home
and with boruc due back from injury in the next week or 2 i would be recomending betting on the saints pciking up 20+ points in the next 10 games
before a tough run in saints should finish the year with 50+ points and enough for top 9 finish

FYP