Tips for Tikay

[BigAdz]

http://www.pgatour.com/tournaments/hyundai-tournament-of-champions/leaderboard.html

We have a lovely final day sweat on young Mr Jordan Speith, after a round of 69 he is T1 with 2 others after the leader yesterday- Zach Johnson blew up with a 74 +1 round. Still feels like things can go either way as the best round of the day was a 65 from a guy in the middle of the pack. Harris English is 6 shots back in t16 ( shows how close the scoring is)

Regardless of what happens this tournament is the sort that Jordan should be doing well in because it plays to his putting strengths, I think we are hopeful of big things from Spieth this year or next, let's hope the bookies keep him in large double digit figures.

Great news Omm

I must confess though, I do feel somewhat like you have broken into my house, taken a picture of one of my kids and been forced to watch as you have gone around telling everyone he is yours, just as he is about to graduate, when I have paid all the bills to get him there!

 

Oh dear, in no way would I ever break into daddy's house and I'm very sorry for making you feel in such a way, I'll make sure that I am mindful of previous recommendations and am certainly more than happy for you to report on tmrws graduation (let's hope it's there to report). I can assure you that my only intention has been to get Fred informed of an official bet placed position which of course was only placed with your timely backup post.

The kids would certainly have ate less turkey for Christmas if it wasn't for who we now call in our house Father Christmas
Bigadz.

Long live the king

No worries Omm, Mr Adz is just having a little sport.

Tis my raison d'etre!!!

[Doobs]

Hearts are awful, Motherwell are good but isnt it all in the prices now?

Cant see anything else that has come to light to suggest they should be sub 1-2, they rate a bet at 8-11 i think but not sure they are bet of the year/season

I don't see much in the logic that is different to what we saw in the early days on the thread.  We can make jokes about whether the Scottish Premier is even real sport, but it in reality it isn't some sporting backwater is it?  

I am not saying this is a bad price, I looked at their previous games and the stats suggest they really are terrible and even 4/6 doesn't look bad.  It just looks a way from something we should be maxing.

Didn't we get on at somewhere close to the Betfair price last time, so couldn't have traded out?  I looked in just after the start last time and the price was that which we got on at, though I didn't see the kick off.  I'd not be sure we could have paid the 5% and made a profit though.

[Doobs]

http://www.pgatour.com/tournaments/hyundai-tournament-of-champions/leaderboard.html

We have a lovely final day sweat on young Mr Jordan Speith, after a round of 69 he is T1 with 2 others after the leader yesterday- Zach Johnson blew up with a 74 +1 round. Still feels like things can go either way as the best round of the day was a 65 from a guy in the middle of the pack. Harris English is 6 shots back in t16 ( shows how close the scoring is)

Regardless of what happens this tournament is the sort that Jordan should be doing well in because it plays to his putting strengths, I think we are hopeful of big things from Spieth this year or next, let's hope the bookies keep him in large double digit figures.

Great news Omm

I must confess though, I do feel somewhat like you have broken into my house, taken a picture of one of my kids and been forced to watch as you have gone around telling everyone he is yours, just as he is about to graduate, when I have paid all the bills to get him there!

 

No no, ain't gonna happen, you are Mr Spieth's Promoter in these parts, & Mr Maths is your able Deputy.

That would definitely be the right order if Deputy Adz was the first person to tip him on the thread .

And no issue with Omm here, if it wasn't for him I would have no sweat.

Yours

The Sheriff.

Ahh, my bad, apologies.

Think I'll go back to bed. 3 hours in, & it's not going well.

Obviously not got my sheriffsserious hat on.  It is going fine, we have a nice sweat thanks to Omm.

[tikay]

Hearts are awful, Motherwell are good but isnt it all in the prices now?

Cant see anything else that has come to light to suggest they should be sub 1-2, they rate a bet at 8-11 i think but not sure they are bet of the year/season

I don't see much in the logic that is different to what we saw in the early days on the thread.  We can make jokes about whether the Scottish Premier is even real sport, but it in reality it isn't some sporting backwater is it?  

I am not saying this is a bad price, I looked at their previous games and the stats suggest they really are terrible and even 4/6 doesn't look bad.  It just looks a way from something we should be maxing.

Didn't we get on at somewhere close to the Betfair price last time, so couldn't have traded out?  I looked in just after the start last time and the price was that which we got on at, though I didn't see the kick off.  I'd not be sure we could have paid the 5% and made a profit though.

My view, too.

We have had several maxes, even a few double maxes, but they have generally been well-reasoned "term" bets, at quite long odds against.

The "Max" logic here (in this bet) is based on trading, & it is just fine in that respect, but I won't be trying to get £1,300 on via my accounts, as I need to try to keep them. I suppose I could try & get £250 on in 4 or 5 different spots, but I don't feel we should, & it makes me a little uncomfy.

[Ironside]

Although I think Motherwell are a must bet it's just for the win and normal betting size, but if we are betting to trade is it not worth making the bet on the exchange in the first place to remove  a chunk of the commission .

Let's say we are betting at bookies at 1.8
Betfair is offering 1.8 less commission
We trade at 1.4
Would we not make more on making bet and trade on Betfair than we would by using the bookies plus we wouldn't ruin our accounts

Or is it dependant on how much we trade out

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £17.93

Outstanding Bets £2797.12

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=34

A loss of £80 yesterday with three completed losers and a single winner, Bath +7 in the drawn game at Leicester

In the NFL the Bengals saved their worst performance of the season for the first game of the play-offs. Attention is on QB Andy Dalton who had a poor game but he was done no favours by a very conservative first half gameplan that left the Bengals chasing the game and an offense completely cold by the time it came to air it out. Was really hoping for more of a sweat than this, as it is a very talented team, but it was not to be and the achilles heel identified back in August did for the Bengals. Most disappointing.

The Green Bay-49ers game did not achieve 90 points, unsurprisingly and that was a £25 loss and Kris Commons was not first goalscorer for Celtic

The NFL line up from here is as follows

AFC

Colts at Patriots
Chargers at Broncos

NFC

Saints at Seahawks
49ers at Panthers

Wide open, as all four underdogs this weekend playing away have legitimate shots and in the cases of the Chargers and 49ers are getting hot at exactly the right time.

[tikay]

Decent day for the Fiorentina bet.

Fiorentina won, second placed Roma lost meaning Fiorentina are 5 points behind 2nd placed Roma and joint 3rd with Napoli who play Sampdoria tomorrow at 2pm. 5th placed Inter (5 points from Napoli/Fiorentina) play Lazio away tomorrow at 5.30pm.

Or you could just look at this table:

http://espnfc.com/tables/_/league/ita.1/ita-serie-a?cc=5739

Thanks for the Update, keep them coming please.

We really could use Sampdoria doing us a favour this afternoon, it'll all be pretty tight if they do.

[tikay]

The Bengals is a big game for us tonight, first on on Sky

£50 at 16-1 to win the AFC

To do that they need to go through the Chargers, then the Patriots then the Broncos/Colts

They are 6.5/7 point favourites over the Chargers

This is probably too high, and after last night we should expect the unexpected


The Niners/Green Bay game later should be a classic cold weather game, the 49ers are 2.5 points favourites away and I am queasy about taking that against Rodgers too

I wrote up a couple of individual player markets, with detailed explanations as to the justification as to why both were interesting given the make up of the two sides, this morning.

Think both are far more attractive than trying to beat -6.5 and -2.5 if you like the Bengals/Niners.

I assume this refers to your BetPal articles?

Well before 20 Shop Sonour gets on my case, I'd better offer them up for debate, & a decision of whether to have a bet. Personally, I think we should, but let's try to be a little less hasty today & invite feedback.



The article is here.....


http://www.betpal.com/nfl-wild-card-weekend-part-2

For the record, Tighty made two Recommendations, & both got home very comfortably indeed.

Well done Tighty!

[Omm]

http://www.oddschecker.com/tv/dancing-on-ice/winner

Couldn't watch all of Dancing on Ice last night, however Hayley didn't score particulary well with 25.5 with at least 3 possibly 4 above her. I'm not really concerned with that as our girl is well liked and we always knew she wasn't the best skater, although I would expect her to get better and if she does "Jai Ho" (YouTube to watch if u want) this will certainly lift her with the public.

As well as this the bottom and first to go was Jorgie Porter who score 29 but was royally stitched up by the producers with her dancing partner (ms porter is best friends with the ex girlfriend of her skating partner who he dumped for his celebrity partner last year), showing that it's not all about the skating, the personal story is important to.

A quick Telmex poll has Ray Quinn at 26% popularity vs 20% of Hayley (238 votes vs 181) and these two are clear of the pack. Ray scored 29.5 and his odds have gone in Hayley's have gone out in places which you would expect. Although injured Kyran Bracken performed as expected and is vying for the second favourites position but not as well liked in the poll ( about 4-6%). Think we should have a decent run for our money, just hoping that most of Liverpool don't pick up the phone for their prodical son "Quinny", as most Liverpudlian acts seem to do well in reality shows.

[ripple11]

http://www.oddschecker.com/tv/dancing-on-ice/winner

Couldn't watch all of Dancing on Ice last night, however Hayley didn't score particulary well with 25.5 with at least 3 possibly 4 above her. I'm not really concerned with that as our girl is well liked and we always knew she wasn't the best skater, although I would expect her to get better and if she does "Jai Ho" (YouTube to watch if u want) this will certainly lift her with the public.

As well as this the bottom and first to go was Jorgie Porter who score 29 but was royally stitched up by the producers with her dancing partner (ms porter is best friends with the ex girlfriend of her skating partner who he dumped for his celebrity partner last year), showing that it's not all about the skating, the personal story is important to.

A quick Telmex poll has Ray Quinn at 26% popularity vs 20% of Hayley (238 votes vs 181) and these two are clear of the pack. Ray scored 29.5 and his odds have gone in Hayley's have gone out in places which you would expect. Although injured Kyran Bracken performed as expected and is vying for the second favourites position but not as well liked in the poll ( about 4-6%). Think we should have a decent run for our money, just hoping that most of Liverpool don't pick up the phone for their prodical son "Quinny", as most Liverpudlian acts seem to do well in reality shows.

Good work Omm.

Agreed it feels like a two horse race.
Hayley will def improve on last night. 9/2 at 1/5 e/w top 3  is a good nitty bet.

[tikay]

The Motherwell Affair.....

Motherwell now generally 4/7, even 1/2 in one spot.


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/scottish/premiership/hearts-v-motherwell/winner

Some of the Fred lads do know value when they see it.

[sonour]

The Bengals is a big game for us tonight, first on on Sky

£50 at 16-1 to win the AFC

To do that they need to go through the Chargers, then the Patriots then the Broncos/Colts

They are 6.5/7 point favourites over the Chargers

This is probably too high, and after last night we should expect the unexpected


The Niners/Green Bay game later should be a classic cold weather game, the 49ers are 2.5 points favourites away and I am queasy about taking that against Rodgers too

I wrote up a couple of individual player markets, with detailed explanations as to the justification as to why both were interesting given the make up of the two sides, this morning.

Think both are far more attractive than trying to beat -6.5 and -2.5 if you like the Bengals/Niners.

I assume this refers to your BetPal articles?

Well before 20 Shop Sonour gets on my case, I'd better offer them up for debate, & a decision of whether to have a bet. Personally, I think we should, but let's try to be a little less hasty today & invite feedback.



The article is here.....


http://www.betpal.com/nfl-wild-card-weekend-part-2

For the record, Tighty made two Recommendations, & both got home very comfortably indeed.

Well done Tighty!

He certainly did !

Thank you Tighty.

[sonour]

Although I think Motherwell are a must bet it's just for the win and normal betting size, but if we are betting to trade is it not worth making the bet on the exchange in the first place to remove  a chunk of the commission .

Let's say we are betting at bookies at 1.8
Betfair is offering 1.8 less commission
We trade at 1.4
Would we not make more on making bet and trade on Betfair than we would by using the bookies plus we wouldn't ruin our accounts

Or is it dependant on how much we trade out

We can't, and never could, get 1.8 or even 1.67 on Betfair.

If we are thinking of getting into trading we really need a Betfair account that pays a lot less than 5% commission and we need accounts at the other exchanges.

Betdaq 3%. Commission free on one EPL match per week.
Smarkets 2%
Matchbook commission free on football. Really only any liquidity on EPL.

Liquidity a problem on all of them really.

[horseplayer]

gray now best 1-3 for sheff wed job (please) plenty of rumours that he will be given the job until the end of the season either today or tommorow.

in other news one of wednesdays best performers for Gray Roger Johnson has joined West Ham on loan from Wolves

aiming for his 4th successive relegation in a row

[tikay]

The Bengals is a big game for us tonight, first on on Sky

£50 at 16-1 to win the AFC

To do that they need to go through the Chargers, then the Patriots then the Broncos/Colts

They are 6.5/7 point favourites over the Chargers

This is probably too high, and after last night we should expect the unexpected


The Niners/Green Bay game later should be a classic cold weather game, the 49ers are 2.5 points favourites away and I am queasy about taking that against Rodgers too

I wrote up a couple of individual player markets, with detailed explanations as to the justification as to why both were interesting given the make up of the two sides, this morning.

Think both are far more attractive than trying to beat -6.5 and -2.5 if you like the Bengals/Niners.

I assume this refers to your BetPal articles?

Well before 20 Shop Sonour gets on my case, I'd better offer them up for debate, & a decision of whether to have a bet. Personally, I think we should, but let's try to be a little less hasty today & invite feedback.



The article is here.....


http://www.betpal.com/nfl-wild-card-weekend-part-2

For the record, Tighty made two Recommendations, & both got home very comfortably indeed.

Well done Tighty!

He certainly did !

Thank you Tighty.

A shame nobody "endorsed" them, but it was a busy weekend, one way & another.