Tips for Tikay

[Ironside]

or get url of the clip you want and then type {youtube}url of clip{/youtube}
use [ ] rather than { } though

[Rubbish2407]

Thanks both, I've been trying to use the wrong embed code.

[Chompy]

Tote/Baldyfred have priced up Aidan O'Brien UK Classic winners again and have identical prices to a year ago.

Again, they are 8/1 about zero winners and again that's too big. It wouldn't be as big a rick as last year, but it's still wrong. If Australia proves not to be the wonder horse some are anticipating, he doesn't have a huge amount elsewhere as it stands.

I'd have Toormore and Kingman ahead of his obvious pair for the 2,000 Guineas, and Tapestry looks too short at 8/1 for the 1,000 (would rather back her at 12/1 for the Oaks, but that race is a long way off).

Rec £50 @ 8/1, zero Aidan UK Classic winners

[tikay]

Tote/Baldyfred have priced up Aidan O'Brien UK Classic winners again and have identical prices to a year ago.

Again, they are 8/1 about zero winners and again that's too big. It wouldn't be as big a rick as last year, but it's still wrong. If Australia proves not to be the wonder horse some are anticipating, he doesn't have a huge amount elsewhere as it stands.

I'd have Toormore and Kingman ahead of his obvious pair for the 2,000 Guineas, and Tapestry looks too short at 8/1 for the 1,000 (would rather back her at 12/1 for the Oaks, but that race is a long way off).

Rec £50 @ 8/1, zero Aidan UK Classic winners

Thanks Mr Wheeldon.

One minor prob.......they restricted me to £31.50.

BET PLACED

[horseplayer]

Meanwhile Paddy has a new offer for the Aussie Open

Bet in any singles match.

If your player wins the first set and goes onto lose, refund stakes up to £100.

That's just an amazing isn't it?

What am I missing?

Bump.

Anyone got anything?

Hector?

pm sent sir

[The Camel]

Very rare to find big value in the main markets on MNF but we are presented with exceptional circumstances this evening.

Arsenal have shortened from 4/7 to 4/9 since Saturday night.

The reason is purely  bookmakers hedging their liabilities after every jolly won over the weekend.

I think even the most ardent Gooner would agree they aren't currently in the same form they were in at the start of the season.

4/7, 8/13 seems like the right price to me.

Can lay 1.5 on Betfair, even with a 5% commish I think that is a decent trade.

Suggest laying Arsenal for £40 @ 1.5

[tikay]

Very rare to find big value in the main markets on MNF but we are presented with exceptional circumstances this evening.

Arsenal have shortened from 4/7 to 4/9 since Saturday night.

The reason is purely  bookmakers hedging their liabilities after every jolly won over the weekend.

I think even the most ardent Gooner would agree they aren't currently in the same form they were in at the start of the season.

4/7, 8/13 seems like the right price to me.

Can lay 1.5 on Betfair, even with a 5% commish I think that is a decent trade.

Suggest laying Arsenal for £40 @ 1.5

Thanks Keith. The Firms are definitely uncomfy with Arsenal winning tonight, they have some huge run-ups.

Anyway, we are on.

BET PLACED

[BigAdz]

Very rare to find big value in the main markets on MNF but we are presented with exceptional circumstances this evening.

Arsenal have shortened from 4/7 to 4/9 since Saturday night.

The reason is purely  bookmakers hedging their liabilities after every jolly won over the weekend.

I think even the most ardent Gooner would agree they aren't currently in the same form they were in at the start of the season.

4/7, 8/13 seems like the right price to me.

Can lay 1.5 on Betfair, even with a 5% commish I think that is a decent trade.

Suggest laying Arsenal for £40 @ 1.5

Start of season they lost at home to Villa.........

I hope they remember that tonight.

One and only Camel bet I have no time for!!!

[doubleup]

Meanwhile Paddy has a new offer for the Aussie Open

Bet in any singles match.

If your player wins the first set and goes onto lose, refund stakes up to £100.

That's just an amazing isn't it?

What am I missing?

Bump.

Anyone got anything?

Hector?

last year 35/127 won first set and lost match.

year b4 32/127

[JoeBeevers]

Arsenal are definitely too short. As a result the Asian handicaps are value too.

You can bet Aston Villa +1 at 2.12 with Pinnacle.

If Villa win or draw you win your bet and if they lose by a single goal you get your money back.

Slightly nittier than laying Arsenal but both are good bets.

[The Camel]

Meanwhile Paddy has a new offer for the Aussie Open

Bet in any singles match.

If your player wins the first set and goes onto lose, refund stakes up to £100.

That's just an amazing isn't it?

What am I missing?

Bump.

Anyone got anything?

Hector?

last year 35/127 won first set and lost match.

year b4 32/127

More than enough evidence.

Thanks double.

[doubleup]

hmmm wait tho I'm doing some work on favs/dogs based on b365 odds and the offer doesn't look as great as it seems.  Most of the "money backs" are dogs and they don't win often enough to be ev+.

Overall it looks like betting favs is best with 127 staked and returning 136 and 128.  Dogs return 90 and and 114.

[The Camel]

hmmm wait tho I'm doing some work on favs/dogs based on b365 odds and the offer doesn't look as great as it seems.  Most of the "money backs" are dogs and they don't win often enough to be ev+.

Overall it looks like betting favs is best with 127 staked and returning 136 and 128.  Dogs return 90 and and 114.

If Paddy are best price, it MUST be value, surely?

2% under betfair price, with a >10% chance of getting money back if you lose.

[JoeBeevers]

hmmm wait tho I'm doing some work on favs/dogs based on b365 odds and the offer doesn't look as great as it seems.  Most of the "money backs" are dogs and they don't win often enough to be ev+.

Overall it looks like betting favs is best with 127 staked and returning 136 and 128.  Dogs return 90 and and 114.

There seems to be a big difference in the last two years. Backing both returns 226 as opposed to 242 last year out of 254. I guess more favourites won two years ago but it does seem a decent enough size sample. If you are getting money back over 25% of the time on the losers something seems wrong in the numbers as it does sound like a great offer on the face of it.

I guess taking best price only would make quite a difference.

BTW it's great that you are taking the time to go through this, thank you.

[tikay]

Very rare to find big value in the main markets on MNF but we are presented with exceptional circumstances this evening.

Arsenal have shortened from 4/7 to 4/9 since Saturday night.

The reason is purely  bookmakers hedging their liabilities after every jolly won over the weekend.

I think even the most ardent Gooner would agree they aren't currently in the same form they were in at the start of the season.

4/7, 8/13 seems like the right price to me.

Can lay 1.5 on Betfair, even with a 5% commish I think that is a decent trade.

Suggest laying Arsenal for £40 @ 1.5

Thanks Keith. The Firms are definitely uncomfy with Arsenal winning tonight, they have some huge run-ups.

Anyway, we are on.

BET PLACED

Please note.....

This was 1.52 when I went to place the Lay, but I set it at 1.5.

It has NOT been matched though, & so is VOID.

Apologies if I messed up.