Tips for Tikay

[The Camel]

Very rare to find big value in the main markets on MNF but we are presented with exceptional circumstances this evening.

Arsenal have shortened from 4/7 to 4/9 since Saturday night.

The reason is purely  bookmakers hedging their liabilities after every jolly won over the weekend.

I think even the most ardent Gooner would agree they aren't currently in the same form they were in at the start of the season.

4/7, 8/13 seems like the right price to me.

Can lay 1.5 on Betfair, even with a 5% commish I think that is a decent trade.

Suggest laying Arsenal for £40 @ 1.5

Thanks Keith. The Firms are definitely uncomfy with Arsenal winning tonight, they have some huge run-ups.

Anyway, we are on.

BET PLACED

Please note.....

This was 1.52 when I went to place the Lay, but I set it at 1.5.

It has NOT been matched though, & so is VOID.

Apologies if I messed up.

Even though it's only a few pennies difference, it's a good habit to get into setting your price and not deviating unless new information comes to light.

FWIW There was a small late correction to the price and it drifted 3 or 4 spots near the off.

[The Camel]

2 goals in a minute.

You can't eat value.

[tikay]

Very rare to find big value in the main markets on MNF but we are presented with exceptional circumstances this evening.

Arsenal have shortened from 4/7 to 4/9 since Saturday night.

The reason is purely  bookmakers hedging their liabilities after every jolly won over the weekend.

I think even the most ardent Gooner would agree they aren't currently in the same form they were in at the start of the season.

4/7, 8/13 seems like the right price to me.

Can lay 1.5 on Betfair, even with a 5% commish I think that is a decent trade.

Suggest laying Arsenal for £40 @ 1.5

Thanks Keith. The Firms are definitely uncomfy with Arsenal winning tonight, they have some huge run-ups.

Anyway, we are on.

BET PLACED

Please note.....

This was 1.52 when I went to place the Lay, but I set it at 1.5.

It has NOT been matched though, & so is VOID.

Apologies if I messed up.

Even though it's only a few pennies difference, it's a good habit to get into setting your price and not deviating unless new information comes to light.

FWIW There was a small late correction to the price and it drifted 3 or 4 spots near the off.

Lol at the timing of my post....

Thanks Keith. I knew I would not be able to monitor it, so I thought it best.

I feel like teacher has given me a gold star. But I lost my pocket money.

[tikay]

2 goals in a minute.

You can't eat value.

Incred timing.

Just as well I posted when I did, though.

[doubleup]

Did a bit more work with the last ten years, I think the ones to avoid are the bigger dogs eg  for odds >3 its 767 bet and returned 535.  For odds <3 its 1744 bet 1849 returned.

I think in tennis because there are so many strong favs, the price of favs is much nearer true odds than the price of the dogs.  So prob for the bet when PP are competitive for a fav or small dog might be the thing.

If anyone wants to do more stuff I got my info from  http://www.tennis-data.co.uk/ausopen.php  You can just click on the spreadsheets and cut and paste them into a bigger sheet.**




column P an Q are the ones to filter to get the winner losing the first set (don't forget 6-7)

[The Camel]

Did a bit more work with the last ten years, I think the ones to avoid are the bigger dogs eg  for odds >3 its 767 bet and returned 535.  For odds <3 its 1744 bet 1849 returned.

I think in tennis because there are so many strong favs, the price of favs is much nearer true odds than the price of the dogs.  So prob for the bet when PP are competitive for a fav or small dog might be the thing.

If anyone wants to do more stuff I got my info from  http://www.tennis-data.co.uk/ausopen.php  You can just click on the spreadsheets and cut and paste them into a bigger sheet.**




column P an Q are the ones to filter to get the winner losing the first set (don't forget 6-7)

Can't work out if I'm being pretty dumb - but is the offer better in the men's event than the women's?

If we lose the first set, we have more chance of coming back in a 5 set match than a 3 set one?

Or does it make no difference?

[MereNovice]

Did a bit more work with the last ten years, I think the ones to avoid are the bigger dogs eg  for odds >3 its 767 bet and returned 535.  For odds <3 its 1744 bet 1849 returned.

I think in tennis because there are so many strong favs, the price of favs is much nearer true odds than the price of the dogs.  So prob for the bet when PP are competitive for a fav or small dog might be the thing.

If anyone wants to do more stuff I got my info from  http://www.tennis-data.co.uk/ausopen.php  You can just click on the spreadsheets and cut and paste them into a bigger sheet.**




column P an Q are the ones to filter to get the winner losing the first set (don't forget 6-7)

Can't work out if I'm being pretty dumb - but is the offer better in the men's event than the women's?

If we lose the first set, we have more chance of coming back in a 5 set match than a 3 set one?

Or does it make no difference?

The offer is much less beneficial for the women's tournament.

15 and 20 comeback wins in the last 2 years.
I haven't checked the odds but am pretty sure that this will be because there are generally less close matches in the women's tournament.

I would have thought that the offer is probably better value the later in the tournament that you go due to more close matches but the figures don't really seem to back that up.

[doubleup]

it occurs far less 20/127 last year 16/127 year before but the <3 test shows a small profit. (beaten to it by a pesky rival excel bod)

Getting back to the mens over the last ten years if you backed both players it would cost 2540 and return 2387, so it is important to note that the offer doesn't fully overcome the bookies edge.

[The Camel]

it occurs far less 20/127 last year 16/127 year before but the <3 test shows a small profit. (beaten to it by a pesky rival excel bod)

Getting back to the mens over the last ten years if you backed both players it would cost 2540 and return 2387, so it is important to note that the offer doesn't fully overcome the bookies edge.

Did you look at games where Paddy were best price or joint best?

Thanks for your hard work guys

[The Camel]

1-2 perhaps we can nibble value pie after all.

Cmon Villains.

[MereNovice]

it occurs far less 20/127 last year 16/127 year before but the <3 test shows a small profit. (beaten to it by a pesky rival excel bod)

Getting back to the mens over the last ten years if you backed both players it would cost 2540 and return 2387, so it is important to note that the offer doesn't fully overcome the bookies edge.

Did you look at games where Paddy were best price or joint best?

Thanks for your hard work guys

Paddy's odds aren't available in the recorded data but I don't think that it would reveal anything.

[sonour]

Meanwhile Paddy has a new offer for the Aussie Open

Bet in any singles match.

If your player wins the first set and goes onto lose, refund stakes up to £100.

That's just an amazing isn't it?

What am I missing?

Bump.

Anyone got anything?

Hector?

last year 35/127 won first set and lost match.

year b4 32/127

Thank you doubleup

[doubleup]

As Mere said we don't have that info, tho backing everything with Pinnacle returns 2516.  If PP start regularly beating Pinnacles price, it is obv a sign of the end of days.

[MereNovice]

As Mere said we don't have that info, tho backing everything with Pinnacle returns 2516.  If PP start regularly beating Pinnacles price, it is obv a sign of the end of days.

 

[The Camel]

Wayne Odesnik to beat Vincent Millot at 1/2 looks the best bet on the card tonight.