Tips for Tikay

[Ant040689]

What is the league table? Is it since he took over?

Hi Tal,

Yeah, last 11 games they've been on a roll. Three of the Five games they've lost have been away to Spuds, Man City and Chelsea so their form looks good at the moment. Sure Ant can elaborate further.

I have bitten my lip a few times, but the 50/1 for Palace to be top 10 is value, I think anyway. Especially when next best is 33/1 with the others at around 25/1.

We dropped points at home to Newcastle and Norwich too when I think the adverse wind, rain, underfoot conditions threw our game off more than the opponents.

Still dreadfully undermanned in the striking department, and if Puncheon didn't find the opening on Saturday with that chance, it looked like it was going to peter out into a 0-0. But with a solid defensive base, which has been shown in every game under Pulis, aside from Newcastle this season, and second half against Spurs, you won't need that much firepower up front to keep us in games/win them. Just need anybody to hit some form up top really and the Eagles could be soaring.

4 points from 10th as it stands with Hull at home in the next game, if all goes well, the distance to 10th will be small. We have Arsenal the game after though, away, but West Brom again at home, so possibly 6 points from 9 there to make us look good.

The top 15 at 9/4 and top 12 at 13/2 is value as well, but involves much less glory at sticking it to the bookmakers.

Not ignored this, Ant, but it is a real stretch of the imagination to see Palace finishing in the Top 10, surely?

Plenty of 50/1 still available if the lads agree with you.


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/top-10-finish

Palace currently have 20 points from 22 games.
Last 4 seasons 10th place has been achieved by 46 points, 47 points, 47 points and 50 points.
Probably going to need around 47 points.

Palace's improvement over the last 11 games has gained them 1.45 points per game.
If they continued at that rate to the end of the season then they would end up on 43 points.

During those 11 games they have played 4 top 9 teams, and 7 teams from the bottom 11.
Their last 16 games give them 8 top 9 teams to play.

It looks like the top 9 are pretty much away, and it's one team from the rest for 10th.
The only thing in their favour is that none of the teams around them are that good.

It's probably not the worst use of a tenner at 50/1, but there are good reasons why they are a big price.

I don't think it is terrible because none of the bottom 11 is that far clear, but..

I think we effectively have a similar bet already with our handicap bet.  Palace probably have to score that much for that to win, but we got the place for 25/1 which we should get paid on with a few less points.  Also we can still get paid if one of the other bottom sides has a streak.  We also have to beat some of the better sides on handicap (Everton, Arsenal, Newcastle, Spurs and Liverpool all up there), so maybe it is a bit swings and roundabouts.

It is now down to 40/1, though only BetVictor have this particular handicap.

Could you explain to me how the Palace handicap works especially in regard to the position Fred has with it please? I am not 100% clear? Basically because I was confused by the concept of handicaps for this market?

Fair enough if there is a similar position already for thread, but I thought value is value and if it is there then why not. From my gut feeling, I would say if Palace were to play out the season from here on in another 33 times, one of them would have them in 10th, such is why 50/1 is value I think.

Gonna add some more info to what Jakally already pointed out about the 11 games under Pulis. You should look at the four games under Millen as well before that which featured games against Arsenal and Everton at home, of which Palace showed themselves off to really have got more than the 1 point they got from those two, 4 points would not have been unfair. I think Pulis and Palace fans only really fear the threat of Man City at home and then for the rest of the games to any other team we would fancy the draw or better.

We really did shut out Everton and Arsenal in those games, and that was under Millen, under Pulis we should be better. Of the away form to the bigger teams. We did really well away to the likes of Man City and Chelsea, losing by one and it not being unfair to have at least got a draw in both. And even with the lesser teams like Tottenham away, Palace should have gone one up in the first half after having the best of it with a penalty miss thrown in there too.  

Basically what I am trying to get at it, because of how tight Pulis plays it at the back, I think Palace could be in nearly every game played, especially as two quick wingers in Bolasie and Puncheon turns defense into attack quickly and teams who were peppering us for possession for long periods normally concede a chance to our counters by not being ready for them out of shock. Obviously our conversion rate for goals is awful but our chance creation is very promising.

Pulis has done all this with the weakest squad in the prem. He may get two players in before the transfer deadline day that might actually make us look more dangerous in the finishing dept too.

I do realise Jakally that we have had some weak looking games at home we have won to skew the points tally, Sunderland, West Ham, Cardiff from the top of my head, but I think we can win over a lot of teams at home and explained why we couldn't do it against Norwich and Newcastle (I think it was the terrible weather).

You can look at the likes of Swansea and Villa too at being so much better than Palace squad wise and being sleeping giants to run away with 10th eventually after their poor dips currently. It is also fair to say that our Palace squad is running at 100% effort and the wheels could come off in a bad way.

I think all factored in, it is a 33/1 shot priced up as a 50/1 and do what you want with it Tikay, I do not mind sir. Value at 50/1 must be a tease, whatever you are betting at tho?

[moonandback]

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[Ant040689]

Rinswun, Lewes recently played Harrow Borough in a 1-1 draw, can you give me a low down on them please if you see this?

They face Hamlet tomorrow at Champion Hill, and Hamlet's keeper remains a liability, but I think for the team as a whole after scoring 4 goals in the second half of the last game from being 2-0 down to win 4-2 there may be a return to form. At 2-1 down Margate did get a man sent off and the 3 Hamlet scored was against 10 men, but I think in the clearing of a huge mental block of not winning for a while, they may approach the next game much more positively.

I think they will win the game, but concede a goal to Harrow because of the keeper. Current odds on to win not to nil are 31/20 with Winner bet, and after having a mull over the markets and form of both sides it is the only bet that stood out to me.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/non-league/isthmian-premier/dulwich-v-harrow-borough/to-win-not-to-nil

Over 3.5 goals is also tempting at 11/10, if you don't fancy the bet above this one comes a close second for me.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/non-league/isthmian-premier/dulwich-v-harrow-borough/over-under-3.5

Here is the keeper that makes these bets value btw. I feel terrible for backing against him every week because it seems like a vendetta. For those new to him he has been at fault for 5 of the 8 goals Hamlet have conceded since his introduction. 0.35 secs in for his most recent fluff, but at less than 4 mins, watching all 6 goals is decent investment of time.

[Kmac84]

Glad I am not the only one that doesn't much like John Ferguson.  I never seem to get the right side of his runners, I think Puffin Billy was the only one I got a turn from in its first few runs but even that once reliabe hurdler seems to have badly regressed. 

Puffin Billy was with Oliver Sherwood, last I heard....

Well it wasn't that one then.  It was most definitely a Ferguson horse that had won and then regressed. 

[JaffaCake]

Ant's post was too long to read, but read Jakally's excellently researched one. I think this season is a bit different as to the make up of the top 10, with the divides in the Prem coming so as the bottom 11 are all really close and much of a muchness. I don't remember that happening before, and therefore think the average points needed may well be quite a bit lower than the average. Far worse things to have a tenner on. Such as Lee Ryan to win Celeb BB.

[Ant040689]

Ant's post was too long to read, but read Jakally's excellently researched one. I think this season is a bit different as to the make up of the top 10, with the divides in the Prem coming so as the bottom 11 are all really close and much of a muchness. I don't remember that happening before, and therefore think the average points needed may well be quite a bit lower than the average. Far worse things to have a tenner on. Such as Lee Ryan to win Celeb BB.

Boom got a Kimber endorsement. The main point I think to be taken from my spiel is that Swansea and Villa are going through dry spells that could well end soon with how good their squads are and they run away from Palace who are operating at close to 100% and the wheels could fall off eventually, but at 50/1 it's not bad.

[Tal]

Snooker Shootout starts today. One frame. Straight knock out. Shot clock. Loud music. Heckling. Red Pepper announcing the clock. Random draw. Players in polo shirts with their rankings on them. Right up tikay's Straße, that

Fancy a few darts at it? 18/1 the field. Real outsiders' comp this. Martin Gould, Nigel Bond and Barry Hawkins have won it.

http://www.oddschecker.com/snooker/snooker-shootout/snooker-shoot-out/winner


Ali Carter 33/1 (BetFred, Paddy, Hills) has well known health issues that make the intensity of a longer comp problematic. Maybe this is perfect for him

Basically want someone who isn't going to be drunk and can play reasonably quickly under pressure.

Open to suggestions but this seems like a bit of fun for the weekend.

Wow, looks like a job for Fred's spider.

Do you have to be street-wise to get that funny letter in Straße?

Ok. Starts in an hour or so, I think. I'll throw some out and see whether you fancy them:

Ali Carter 33/1 for reasons stated above
Xu Guodong 40/1 as a quick, talented, heavy scorer
Robert Milkins 50/1 as a quick player who has TV experience
Anthony "The Sheriff of Pottingham" Hamilton 80/1 with bags of experience and a wily tactician

Tenner apiece. Let's get rich.

[Doobs]

Rinswun, Lewes recently played Harrow Borough in a 1-1 draw, can you give me a low down on them please if you see this?

They face Hamlet tomorrow at Champion Hill, and Hamlet's keeper remains a liability, but I think for the team as a whole after scoring 4 goals in the second half of the last game from being 2-0 down to win 4-2 there may be a return to form. At 2-1 down Margate did get a man sent off and the 3 Hamlet scored was against 10 men, but I think in the clearing of a huge mental block of not winning for a while, they may approach the next game much more positively.

I think they will win the game, but concede a goal to Harrow because of the keeper. Current odds on to win not to nil are 31/20 with Winner bet, and after having a mull over the markets and form of both sides it is the only bet that stood out to me.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/non-league/isthmian-premier/dulwich-v-harrow-borough/to-win-not-to-nil

Over 3.5 goals is also tempting at 11/10, if you don't fancy the bet above this one comes a close second for me.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/non-league/isthmian-premier/dulwich-v-harrow-borough/over-under-3.5

Here is the keeper that makes these bets value btw. I feel terrible for backing against him every week because it seems like a vendetta. For those new to him he has been at fault for 5 of the 8 goals Hamlet have conceded since his introduction. 0.35 secs in for his most recent fluff, but at less than 4 mins, watching all 6 goals is decent investment of time.

Over 3.5 at 11/10 seems really short to me.  Isn't the dodgy keeper in the price?

[rinswun]

I have given my thoughts to Ant via PM, happy for him to post them. I guess it depends how gung-ho Dulwich want to be. I wouldn't necessarily be relying on Harrow for goals but that goalie does seen value for 1 a game. Probably priced about right but Dulwich do seem a time who have the ability to score.

[Dubai]

Anyone with paddy power or bet365 accounts that can put a bet on for me if I send ££ let me know please. Upside drink in it if you win, downside small chance of account being restricted/closed.

[Tal]

IBF order Froch v Groves rematch in 90 days or Froch loses his belt

Where's that cat and pigeons picture?

[tikay]

Snooker Shootout starts today. One frame. Straight knock out. Shot clock. Loud music. Heckling. Red Pepper announcing the clock. Random draw. Players in polo shirts with their rankings on them. Right up tikay's Straße, that

Fancy a few darts at it? 18/1 the field. Real outsiders' comp this. Martin Gould, Nigel Bond and Barry Hawkins have won it.

http://www.oddschecker.com/snooker/snooker-shootout/snooker-shoot-out/winner


Ali Carter 33/1 (BetFred, Paddy, Hills) has well known health issues that make the intensity of a longer comp problematic. Maybe this is perfect for him

Basically want someone who isn't going to be drunk and can play reasonably quickly under pressure.

Open to suggestions but this seems like a bit of fun for the weekend.

Wow, looks like a job for Fred's spider.

Do you have to be street-wise to get that funny letter in Straße?

Ok. Starts in an hour or so, I think. I'll throw some out and see whether you fancy them:

Ali Carter 33/1 for reasons stated above
Xu Guodong 40/1 as a quick, talented, heavy scorer
Robert Milkins 50/1 as a quick player who has TV experience
Anthony "The Sheriff of Pottingham" Hamilton 80/1 with bags of experience and a wily tactician

Tenner apiece. Let's get rich.

Tenner each?

£5 EW then.

We did the first three, but the Market had closed before I could get on Anthony Hamilton. Shame, I used to play Anthony, at the Stadium Snooker Club in Notts, back in the day. I'd have been 30 odd years oild, he was about 12 (seriously) & he was a prodigy. Bit of a weirdo, too, in so many ways.

Running Updates please, so we know how we are getting on. I've got a poker session tonight, so can't Post much, but I will keep an eye on the thread.

Good luck, & hope everyone has a grand Friday evening.

PS - Brentford v Gillingham on the telly, too - oooohhhh.

3 BETS PLACED

[Doobs]

Snooker Shootout starts today. One frame. Straight knock out. Shot clock. Loud music. Heckling. Red Pepper announcing the clock. Random draw. Players in polo shirts with their rankings on them. Right up tikay's Straße, that

Fancy a few darts at it? 18/1 the field. Real outsiders' comp this. Martin Gould, Nigel Bond and Barry Hawkins have won it.

http://www.oddschecker.com/snooker/snooker-shootout/snooker-shoot-out/winner


Ali Carter 33/1 (BetFred, Paddy, Hills) has well known health issues that make the intensity of a longer comp problematic. Maybe this is perfect for him

Basically want someone who isn't going to be drunk and can play reasonably quickly under pressure.

Open to suggestions but this seems like a bit of fun for the weekend.

Wow, looks like a job for Fred's spider.

Do you have to be street-wise to get that funny letter in Straße?

Ok. Starts in an hour or so, I think. I'll throw some out and see whether you fancy them:

Ali Carter 33/1 for reasons stated above
Xu Guodong 40/1 as a quick, talented, heavy scorer
Robert Milkins 50/1 as a quick player who has TV experience
Anthony "The Sheriff of Pottingham" Hamilton 80/1 with bags of experience and a wily tactician

Tenner apiece. Let's get rich.

Tenner each?

£5 EW then.

We did the first three, but the Market had closed before I could get on Anthony Hamilton. Shame, I used to play Anthony, at the Stadium Snooker Club in Notts, back in the day. I'd have been 30 odd years oild, he was about 12 (seriously) & he was a prodigy. Bit of a weirdo, too, in so many ways.

Running Updates please, so we know how we are getting on. I've got a poker session tonight, so can't Post much, but I will keep an eye on the thread.

Good luck, & hope everyone has a grand Friday evening.

PS - Brentford v Gillingham on the telly, too - oooohhhh.

3 BETS PLACED

The first post looked like a list of reasons why we shouldn't have had a bet on the event.

Next we'll be betting on coin tosses.  Oh wait.

[tikay]

Snooker Shootout starts today. One frame. Straight knock out. Shot clock. Loud music. Heckling. Red Pepper announcing the clock. Random draw. Players in polo shirts with their rankings on them. Right up tikay's Straße, that

Fancy a few darts at it? 18/1 the field. Real outsiders' comp this. Martin Gould, Nigel Bond and Barry Hawkins have won it.

http://www.oddschecker.com/snooker/snooker-shootout/snooker-shoot-out/winner


Ali Carter 33/1 (BetFred, Paddy, Hills) has well known health issues that make the intensity of a longer comp problematic. Maybe this is perfect for him

Basically want someone who isn't going to be drunk and can play reasonably quickly under pressure.

Open to suggestions but this seems like a bit of fun for the weekend.

Wow, looks like a job for Fred's spider.

Do you have to be street-wise to get that funny letter in Straße?

Ok. Starts in an hour or so, I think. I'll throw some out and see whether you fancy them:

Ali Carter 33/1 for reasons stated above
Xu Guodong 40/1 as a quick, talented, heavy scorer
Robert Milkins 50/1 as a quick player who has TV experience
Anthony "The Sheriff of Pottingham" Hamilton 80/1 with bags of experience and a wily tactician

Tenner apiece. Let's get rich.

Tenner each?

£5 EW then.

We did the first three, but the Market had closed before I could get on Anthony Hamilton. Shame, I used to play Anthony, at the Stadium Snooker Club in Notts, back in the day. I'd have been 30 odd years oild, he was about 12 (seriously) & he was a prodigy. Bit of a weirdo, too, in so many ways.

Running Updates please, so we know how we are getting on. I've got a poker session tonight, so can't Post much, but I will keep an eye on the thread.

Good luck, & hope everyone has a grand Friday evening.

PS - Brentford v Gillingham on the telly, too - oooohhhh.

3 BETS PLACED

The first post looked like a list of reasons why we shouldn't have had a bet on the event.

Next we'll be betting on coin tosses.  Oh wait.

Fred Birthday Weekend is my excuse, we gonna party.

[Karabiner]

Snooker Shootout starts today. One frame. Straight knock out. Shot clock. Loud music. Heckling. Red Pepper announcing the clock. Random draw. Players in polo shirts with their rankings on them. Right up tikay's Straße, that

Fancy a few darts at it? 18/1 the field. Real outsiders' comp this. Martin Gould, Nigel Bond and Barry Hawkins have won it.

http://www.oddschecker.com/snooker/snooker-shootout/snooker-shoot-out/winner


Ali Carter 33/1 (BetFred, Paddy, Hills) has well known health issues that make the intensity of a longer comp problematic. Maybe this is perfect for him

Basically want someone who isn't going to be drunk and can play reasonably quickly under pressure.

Open to suggestions but this seems like a bit of fun for the weekend.

Wow, looks like a job for Fred's spider.

Do you have to be street-wise to get that funny letter in Straße?

Ok. Starts in an hour or so, I think. I'll throw some out and see whether you fancy them:

Ali Carter 33/1 for reasons stated above
Xu Guodong 40/1 as a quick, talented, heavy scorer
Robert Milkins 50/1 as a quick player who has TV experience
Anthony "The Sheriff of Pottingham" Hamilton 80/1 with bags of experience and a wily tactician

Tenner apiece. Let's get rich.

Tenner each?

£5 EW then.

We did the first three, but the Market had closed before I could get on Anthony Hamilton. Shame, I used to play Anthony, at the Stadium Snooker Club in Notts, back in the day. I'd have been 30 odd years oild, he was about 12 (seriously) & he was a prodigy. Bit of a weirdo, too, in so many ways.

Running Updates please, so we know how we are getting on. I've got a poker session tonight, so can't Post much, but I will keep an eye on the thread.

Good luck, & hope everyone has a grand Friday evening.

PS - Brentford v Gillingham on the telly, too - oooohhhh.

3 BETS PLACED

You played at The Stadium Tony. Really?!?

I was a regular there for a good few years in the 1980's and even played in their "super-league" team for a year or two.

I've known Anthony Hamilton since before he managed to grow any facial hair too.