Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

Big Bucks 6/4 with ladbrokes now, gogogogo

Done, but.....

Once again, as with Corals, I was Restricted to £10.

Conspiracy theories may commence at your leisure. 2 major firms both reduced the same £20 @ 6/4 to £10. Are they scared of Fred?

BET PLACED

We know we are restricted at Ladbrokes.  So they should restrict to here?  I haven't tried mine, as I'd have to deposit and it just isn't worth it when on 1%.

The Coral's one might just be them taking too much money?  

Edit.  £10 is consistent with your 10% restriction if they are maxing at £100 elsewhere. 

[exstream]

6/4 with lads lasted long, tikays £10 tipped it over the edge

[BigAdz]

Is there anyone offering a Big Bucks win today and Fest double?

I think, if he is back, he will win both, and maybe you should consider backing him for festival rather than today, as it looks almost like the field he will face in March.


I'm one of those, they never come back blokes and will be looking elsewhere.

[exstream]

Is there anyone offering a Big Bucks win today and Fest double?

I think, if he is back, he will win both, and maybe you should consider backing him for festival rather than today, as it looks almost like the field he will face in March.


I'm one of those, they never come back blokes and will be looking elsewhere.

4/1 pp

[tikay]

the 2.30 at Lingfield is an interesting event and although a handicap has a fair each way look to it.

No doubt Roy's Legacy should be favourite but evens is very tight (even allowing for there is nothing like the winner he faced last time in here); personally would be priced about 7-4 with me.

Falasteen is a flatterer these days who sometimes goes close then seems to lose form quickly, the trainer is struggling for form more and more as the years pass

Johnny Splash is consistent enough but looks overbet due to a ride everybody saw from an inexperienced lady last time. Is at least 6lbs to high and has a very poor strike rate.

The one i like each way at anything bigger than 7-1 is YOUR GIFTED, consistent and has been sharpened up by the visor the last twice. Has only been here once in a long career and that was a win, trainer does not have to many winners but had a winner with her last runner. Fairly handicapped and i would have priced nearer 5-1/6-1 in this.

The danger is as often has happened this winter Kirby on the favourite wins the race in the first furlong but thats the chance you take.

Suggest £20 each way

Nice spot, horsey, unforch I was up the allotment at the time. Well done, though.

[Tonji]

Big downhill races today at Cortina for the girls & Kitzbuehel for the fellas.

Bodie Miller 2nd favourite today after finding a great time in training.

[BigAdz]

Is there anyone offering a Big Bucks win today and Fest double?

I think, if he is back, he will win both, and maybe you should consider backing him for festival rather than today, as it looks almost like the field he will face in March.


I'm one of those, they never come back blokes and will be looking elsewhere.

4/1 pp
[/quote


There's your market.

With me hoping Annie Power will go CH route, I may take a couple of those prices, B Bob and At Fishers(written off too quickly I suspect).

Edit. Even had a few quid on BBucks too.

[horseplayer]

Obviously every horse is different but thought this timeform article was very good re Big Bucks

Timeform's Michael Williamson has undertaken a statistical analysis of a horse's chance of running to form when returning from an absence.

Commenting on the findings, he said: "There are many variables to take into account when trying to establish how likely a horse is to return to their previous best after a lay-off. Each horse presents a unique case, but other horses have encountered similar circumstances to Big Buck's and a consideration of how they fared - through analysis of 20 years of criteria controlled jumps data - can provide some sort of a guide.

"The data tells us that an absence does have an effect, in that a horse is less likely to perform to expectation based on run to form (RTF) measurement, and, generally speaking, up to a point, it follows that the longer the absence the greater the effect.

"Of course, the main difficulty with this type of analysis is that the various factors in whether a horse runs to expectation are not independent of each other. To account for these interdependencies and to weight the factors accordingly, data modelling is a powerful ally. Following Timeform's switch to a digital platform last year, data models are in development to try to put more concrete numbers around a horse's chance in a given situation.

"Although still in its infancy, the current algorithm suggests the likelihood of Big Buck's returning to the level of form he showed with such regularity pre-injury is far from high, even with meticulous planning by Paul Nicholls. Then again, Big Buck's does have one thing in his favour that no statistical analysis can account for: he's Big Buck's."

[exstream]

Coral have an enhanced double, big bucks + rocky creek at 11/2.

[tikay]

Rumour is that Brentford are chasing Assombalongalonga. Gl with that, unless they have £2-3m knocking around.

Matthew Benham, though.

Conga needs a bigger club to show his skills, too.

Here's the League Table......


http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/tables

[tikay]

Master Speith running up the leaderboard, I presume this is the week TFT missed doing him?

Thread not the only one 

What he said.

What they all said.

January has been that sort of month. 

[TightEnd]

Loss on Month £516.74

Outstanding Bets £3092.37

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=34

A loss of £80 yesterday, Bally Braes at Huntingdon

Red ink to come

- Allardyce
- Bopara
- Tamaddon?


Tiger Woods took advantage of the much easier course to shoot a -1 71, and is 9 shots off the lead at the half way stage of the Farmers Insurance

Pat Perez is T6, 4 off the pace at the half way stage

Michael Hoey is eight shots off the pace at the Qatar Masters after a two-over-par 74 on Friday left him sharing 39th place after the third round.

Ali Carter made it through the first round of the snooker fixout. The Clock is ticking. Hopefully on this format.

[Marky147]

Rumour is that Brentford are chasing Assombalongalonga. Gl with that, unless they have £2-3m knocking around.

Matthew Benham, though.

Conga needs a bigger club to show his skills, too.

Here's the League Table......


http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/tables

Benham is probably on the blower to Tikay right now

[Chompy]

Football season bets. I'm doing the following...

4 x EW doubles

Poshies 9-1, Brentford 9-1

Fleetwood 7-1, Chesterfield 15-2

Remember this rebuff from last summer? One time you Beeeeeees!

No way Poshies will let Britt go unless it's mega money, but a switch wouldn't be a bad thing for our Golden Bootery. So far we've bid for about a dozen players this window, had quite a few accepted but then been rebuffed by the player. Nobody wants to play for Fergie any more it seems

For the record, one will be backing over 4.5 @ 7/1 and over 5.5 @ 14/1 at Boundary Park this afternoon.

[tikay]

Snooker Shootout starts today. One frame. Straight knock out. Shot clock. Loud music. Heckling. Red Pepper announcing the clock. Random draw. Players in polo shirts with their rankings on them. Right up tikay's Straße, that

Fancy a few darts at it? 18/1 the field. Real outsiders' comp this. Martin Gould, Nigel Bond and Barry Hawkins have won it.

http://www.oddschecker.com/snooker/snooker-shootout/snooker-shoot-out/winner


Ali Carter 33/1 (BetFred, Paddy, Hills) has well known health issues that make the intensity of a longer comp problematic. Maybe this is perfect for him

Basically want someone who isn't going to be drunk and can play reasonably quickly under pressure.

Open to suggestions but this seems like a bit of fun for the weekend.

Wow, looks like a job for Fred's spider.

Do you have to be street-wise to get that funny letter in Straße?

Ok. Starts in an hour or so, I think. I'll throw some out and see whether you fancy them:

Ali Carter 33/1 for reasons stated above
Xu Guodong 40/1 as a quick, talented, heavy scorer
Robert Milkins 50/1 as a quick player who has TV experience
Anthony "The Sheriff of Pottingham" Hamilton 80/1 with bags of experience and a wily tactician

Tenner apiece. Let's get rich.

Tenner each?

£5 EW then.

We did the first three, but the Market had closed before I could get on Anthony Hamilton. Shame, I used to play Anthony, at the Stadium Snooker Club in Notts, back in the day. I'd have been 30 odd years oild, he was about 12 (seriously) & he was a prodigy. Bit of a weirdo, too, in so many ways.

Running Updates please, so we know how we are getting on. I've got a poker session tonight, so can't Post much, but I will keep an eye on the thread.

Good luck, & hope everyone has a grand Friday evening.

PS - Brentford v Gillingham on the telly, too - oooohhhh.

3 BETS PLACED

You played at The Stadium Tony. Really?!?

I was a regular there for a good few years in the 1980's and even played in their "super-league" team for a year or two.

I've known Anthony Hamilton since before he managed to grow any facial hair too.

Good grief! Yes, many, many, times.

The snooker scene in Nottingham at the time was pretty lively, but The Stadium was the sort of "Old Trafford", really nice venue with a special room containing seating, & a proper "Match Table", it even had crystallite balls, most clubs used the old ivory balls at that time.

I was a regular at John & David Singh's place in the Lace Market, too, I'm sure you must have known both of them.

I backed David Singh from time to time in money matches. I believe John's Car lot in Castle Boulevard later burnt down, & subsequent to a substantial insurance poilicy claim, John was sent to Prison for being naughty.

Anyway, The Stadium. I played in the Lenton Abbey League Teams, Tuesday nights, but not in the Super League Team, I was useless at snooker, just as I am at all ball sports, but I made the Lenton Abbey Team, just about. 

One week Lenton Abbey Super League Team were away @ Stadium, & were short of a player, so I got drafted in as an emergency sub. Not unreasonably, I was used as the "sacrifice" leg sagainst Anthony Hamilton, it was best of 3, & I never troubled the judges. Anthony, as I recall him, would have still been at school, or nearly so. Very thin & wiry, & a bit left-field, with a goatee and an ear-ring, all a bit controversial in those days. Pretty sure his Dad coached him, & was always at his side, but I may be wrong.

Lenton Abbey later closed down, & we all transferred to Stapleford Snooker Club, where Mike Hallett used to play a lot. 

It was at Lenton Abbey Snooker club that I met xxxx, with whom I had a dalliance of some length, & a few years later it was with this young lady that some impropriety arose in the greenside bunker on the 15th at Royal Ormonde Golf Club, all the more daring as I was Captain of the Golf Club at the time.

Anyway, I digress.