Tips for Tikay

[BigAdz]

Wait! Adz is on?

Is there a cash out button?

LOL, you wish.

[Doobs]

Better news

Pat Perez has finished on -6, which is two off the lead in the golf.

So we have a sweat at least.

[The Camel]

Suggestion:

If you are going to put up a tip in an obscure event (such as a chess tournament) don't give the exact name of the bookmaker the rick is with.

Use $kybet, or baldfred or puddy power etc etc

I think it's 4/7 Sky changed their odds because of Adzy's bet but only 5/4 Tal's post popped up on Google alerts.

[rfgqqabc]

Suggestion:

If you are going to put up a tip in an obscure event (such as a chess tournament) don't give the exact name of the bookmaker the rick is with.

Use $kybet, or baldfred or puddy power etc etc

I think it's 4/7 Sky changed their odds because of Adzy's bet but only 5/4 Tal's post popped up on Google alerts.

So don't use Paddy Power, Skybet, Stan James, Ladbrokes, Boylesports, Betfred, Totesport, Ladbrokes, William Hill, Coral...? 

[Tal]

Sorry, Camel (and anyone else). Feedback always happily received. Thank you.

Doesn't look like the move to 11/8 has led to any adjustment in the other prices. That book is 127% now by my calculations. Outright chess markets aren't generally tight books, understandably, but putting it over 120 does annoy me a bit, like they want to offer a market for the sake of it, but aren't prepared to risk losing any money in the process.

And just lol at 12/1 Andreikin. Compare that with Mara sorry Snickersbet who have him at 50/1, which is much closer to the truth. It's about as likely as Stoke winning the league.

[maldini32]

Fiorentina update

Good day for the bet, Napoli drew 1-1 against Chievo at home thanks to a 88th minute equaliser.

Roma play in the early kick off away to Verona who have been flying this season. Tough game for Roma this.

Our boys play Genoa at home and will hopefully have a striker fit to lead the line.

[McGlashan]

Suggestion:

If you are going to put up a tip in an obscure event (such as a chess tournament) don't give the exact name of the bookmaker the rick is with.

Use $kybet, or baldfred or puddy power etc etc

I think it's 4/7 Sky changed their odds because of Adzy's bet but only 5/4 Tal's post popped up on Google alerts.

we could use an image if the market url is not on oddschecker.

[McGlashan]

Not for Fred but I have a chess bet where Sky is slow.

The candidates tournament is in March. The last major comp before it is the Wijk aan Zee tournament that is just coming to an end. Lev Aronian is destroying the field, with 8/10 and one round to come. He's already won the tournament by a distance. Only Anand (who has seemed broken) and Kramnik (the main contender) are missing.

The real point is Aronian is favourite for the Candidates and was 3/1 before the start of the Wijk comp and 5/2 the other day.

He's now 6/4 with Marathon and Unibet (the two I can find offering prices so far on the Candidates) BUT skybet still go 5/2.

I don't fancy Aronian much at 6/4, but he can't be both 6/4 and 5/2 and he's in superb form right now.

Just letting Fred know anyway.

Has Kramnik drifted as a result of Aronian shortening?

If they were each available at 3-1 I'd of bit your hand off for evens on Kramnik or Aronian winning it.

[Rubbish2407]

Fred's two today and Tikay asked for something a bit different so I've done this.

The Tips For Tikay A - Z.

Please note this is all my own doing and no offence was meant to anyone on or omitted from the list.

A



Ant040689 - Has one Man ever argued so passionately about Football? Well, probably yes. Has one Man ever written so eloquently about Crystal Palace? I guess so. Has one man ever written so eloquently and passionately abour Dulwich Hamlet? Hmmmmmmmmmmm, not sure. Has one Man ever written 6,000 words about why Crystal Palace should be bet to finish top 10 and been rebuffed by so many? Never. Luckily Ant never gives up so there will be another masterpiece next week.

B

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BigAdz - Did such a great job of taking aftertiming to a new level a smiley was created just to honour him. That said, he has
put forward some great bets and won Fred lots of money. Who can forget Gerard Mosse at 16/1 or John's Spirit at 9/1?
Supports Arsenal as well so can't be that bad.

C



Chompy - The Fenland fiddler, The RP Harpy, The King of the novelty bets, never has one man been ridiculed more by Tikay.
Yet yesterday he gave us a 7/1 and 14/1 winner on his beloved Peterborough. He's also given us 27 League one top scorer
picks, three CBB winners and a choice of black, blonde and brunette for Tindalls baby's hair colour this month alone. Maybe Chompy is summed up best by this quote from respected Blonde, Simon Gallaway.
"Chompy is the only punter sad enough to research this crap.  If you'd seen him beg, wriggle and squirm all the way down
the 17th fairway for a chop on a fiver like I had to, you'd realise what a nap this must be".

D



Darts -

"Might have a massive coup.

If i told you a 5time world championship semi finalist was 1000-1 for said event you would think im mad. But thats the
case in Darts this year. The only downside is the player is RETIRED! But story is friend was out last night rang me and
said pop to pub for few beers, whilst there bump into Wayne Mardle who i met at Luton a few years ago when he was deep
in GUKPT. Said hello and watched him throw a few arrows. Apparently he been training more than ever, has averaged 108
in a match for a Romford pub team last week and the drift he used to have into the 5 and 1 beds seems to have gone.
Obviously its far easier throwing great in non pressure matches than it is on the big stage but he was always a
big stage player- talented but inconsistent. Said all family problems are sorted and the commentary has re-ignited
his passion into the game and he is back in love with it. The plan is for him to start playing on the tour again
September time so should be coming to the boil by December, could be 50s come then if he averaging 100s in games.
Ive rang ladbrokes, hills and corals for prices- am expecting 1000s with them but Ladbrokes odds compiler not in until
tomoro and other 2 are getting back to me. 1000s with skybet now, recommend max bet each way Tikay"

Possibly the best post ever on TfT by Dubai. It turned out to be an April's fool but that didn't stop Fred being overrun
by Darts aficionados telling us all why Mardle was such a bad bet. Happy times.

E

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Eso Kral - Who can forget the Walsall bets? Firstly it was to be promoted, then relegated and finally to finish mid table.
Amazingly all three bets lost with Walsall somehow defying all laws of physics and coming nowhere. This sparked maybe
one of the greatest quotes ever to surface on Blonde. "The Full Eso Kral": To back every possible outcome
in an event and lose whatever happens. Keith Hawkins

[Rubbish2407]

F



Free bets - Welcome to Doobs World. Along with all the special bets that those lovely Bookmakers throw at us, Doobs
has transformed the way us Joe punters look at them. There hardly seems to be a day go by that team Maths hasn't singled out three or four bets for us all to follow. I'm guessing the most prolific tipster on here?

G

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Gee Gee's - Fred's most profitable sport with £2445.98 profit from 682 bets with £23,131.79 staked and an ROI of 10.57%.
photo This may have been Fred's most profitable day, more on that later.

H



Hector - Christened the Milkman because he always seems to deliver. Knowledgeable on Rugby, both codes, and Tennis
but who can forget that Hector also brought 3G, Nicholas Coelsart, to our attention with a stunning 14/1 matchplay tip
that Genks greatest Golfer steered home in unlikely fashion. In a Poker community where everyone knows each other Hector
has managed to remain an elusive punter. I'll always picture him like this.

I

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Ice cream - We've all been one except for Duabi who was born a shark. Thanks to the help of the great Man himself
plus people like Neil Channing, Keith Hawkins. Redarmi, Bobby1 and Chompy we've all been educated to a standard where we can realistically be winning punters. Well all except Eso of course. Many thanks to all the legends that have posted
on here making this one of the best threads on any site.

J

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JJ Rojas - JOSE JOAQUIN ROJAS (or JJ for short). He is trading at 100/1 @ Spoilsports (1/5 odds 1-2-3) or 80/1 @ Ladjokes (1/4 odds 1-2-3). JJ is a year younger than Moreno, and is a better sprinter to boot.
He won't be stealing any stage victories from Greipel, Kittel, Viviani and co, but he might nick a couple of seconds at the
intermediate sprints. He is also a decent climber (as good as Moreno), and could arguably have achieved more at the TDU last year (14th), if he wasn't riding as a domestique. For five times the price of his team-mate, you essentially get the same cyclist. The only risk is that I'm not sure who'll get the nod this year. For me, it's worth a fiver each-way to find out.

Maybe one of the best tips ever, certainly one of the biggest winning prices with people getting on at 150/1. Take a bow Mr. Cheapwetsuit.

[Rubbish2407]

K

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Keith "The Camel" Hawkins on a day when he was drinking. Author of this thread so he has a lot to answer for. Owner of the first winning bet, a £40 best Director punt on Michael Hazanavicus to win an Oscar. Since then there have been too many bets to mention but two stick out. One will follow and the other was Barnet to be relegated. A real rollercoaster of a bet which
ultimately fell on the last day but gave Fred a great sweat. Wish he would post more bets.

L



Ladbrokes - A recent entry after they ran one of the best/worst promotions since Hoovers free trips to America. Several Fred
regulars took full advantage with Sonour taking on Heroine status after sending her Husbands to war with Ladbrokes, placing 86 bets on the Chelsea v Man Utd game. Ultimately, the promotion was to cost Ladbrokes " over £500,000" according to a spokesperson. What the true figure was we may never know.

M



Not Maria but MereNovice - Tikay's accountant who keeps the spreadies going and posts Monthly reports with unerring accuracy. If you were to look back at the first few hundred posts on Fred then Mere's name would pop up on a regular basis. He gave tips mainly on Tennis and Rugby League before updating the Spread sheet became his second job. Another guy who needs to start posting more.

N

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Neil Channing - Another guy who we would all really like to see more of. Obviously Neil, Keith, Mere, Dubai et al have their
day jobs but wouldn't it be great if they could drop in on a more regular basis.
One of Neil's posts that we should always remember when settling on what bet to make.
1. Does this bet benefit from inside information?
2. Have we done better research than the person setting the market?
3. Are we thinking about something in a completely different way?
4. Can we take advantage of a market anomoly which has distorted the market?
Wise words.

O



Other people - There's been so many tippers and posters that I couldn't mention every single one. There are some that I wonder where they have disappeared to? Ace2m, JennyMar, The Dazzler, Singhee TL900, Bobby1? Anyone know?

[Rubbish2407]

P



Profit - £4376.06 from 2,884 bets at a ROI of 4.73% and a whopping £92,480.56 staked and counting.

Q



Quarterback sensation - One of the best posts and greatest sweats Fred has has. Thank you Mr Hawkins.
I watch alot of sport.
I watch more sport than anyone know.
It's almost sad how much sport I watch.
But just once in while I see something which makes it all worthwhile.
I see a talented young player who just is a joy to watch, who I just know it is going to be a superstar at his chosen sport.
Someone who makes you stop whatever your doing and marvel at his natural talent, joie de vivre and brilliance.
Without thinking too hard I remember Federer beating Sampras at Wimbledon, Judd Trump's first world Snooker campaign
and Rory winning the Dubai Desert Classic.
Not only have you got watch these people, you have to move fast and get financially involved by backing them before
everyone realises just how good thy are!
Well, a new star is about to appear in the firmament imo.
San Francisco 49ers are an excellent NFL team. They have an awesome defence led by the fearsome Smith brothers
Aldon and Justin. And the Duracell bunny at LB, Patrick Willis. Troy Aikman called their Offensive line the best he had seen
since the legendary one he played behind in the nineties. They have a dependable running back in Frank Gore.
Weapon's aplenty at WR and TE.. Randy Moss, Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis. And at QB they have Alex Smith who is top in the league completion %, fourth in QB rating with an incredibly impressive TD to INT ratio of 14:5
Only thing is, he got a concussion a couple of weeks ago and had to be taken out of the lineup by a guy who had
only seen spot duty so far.
This guy: Colin Kaepernick

R



Rich "Tightend" Prew - Fred stalwart. Posted more graphs and photos of grass rollers than anyone else. Put up my favourite
bet ever of England Wales FT which I cheered on at London Welsh at a stand out 13/2. Churns out the Daily reports and
manages to make each one witty. Usually throws in a word no one has ever used before at least once a week. More knowledgeable on Football, Rugby Union, Cricket and American Football than anyone I can think of. Legend

S

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Spreadsheet - Where would we be without Mere and his Spreadies? Some call them works of art. Some call them masterpieces. We just call them Fred.

T



Tikay - Our hero. Nuff said.

[Rubbish2407]

U

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Unsettled bets - The forward book currently stands at £2,977.37. The furthest bet is Omms Steve Bunting bet which wont mature until January 2015. Some bets look inspired. Suarez top scorer, Michael Carter-Williams Rookie of the year. Then we have Chompy's Liverpool to finish in the bottom half and his raft of League one top scorer bets. I suppose you have to take the rough with the smooth.

V



Value - Best explained by Mr Channing

The three most common reasons that bets can be "value" and can achieve the goal are inside information which is great
but doesn't come around to often, the quality of research being better than that of the oddsmakers - I think the thread
is very good at that and I',m certain the level of thought is way above that of the average odds compiler at Sid James,
Bet £3.65 and BlueSqurrel. ...The third one (and to my mind an area where the thread misses a little)...
is the market being out because of supply and demand.

 To me this is the best way to find value bets. Bookmakers sometimes allow short-term implications
to cloud their judgement. They have a boss to answer to and a job to hold down. If they laid something heavily
at the semi-final stage and it looked very poor but qualified for the final where it is competing against something that was
 1000/1 at the start and one eventuality means a big bonus and the other might mean the sack they will "green out". They will do the thing we all know they shouldn't do and they will "piss away expectation" as someone put it here so eloquently.

W



William Hills - Who can forget last years opening race at Cheltenham, the Supreme Novice that Hills offered
six places for. Tikay was on the verge of a nervous breakdown as the bets kept coming and coming. The outcome was quite
spectacular.
12 Mar 13 / 14:21    Bet Winnings    1:30 Cheltenham – Champagne Fever @ 5/1 GP (Price taken @ 4/1)    + £577.50
12 Mar 13 / 14:21    Bet Winnings    1:30 Cheltenham – Champagne Fever @ Guaranteed Price (5/1)    + £206.25    
12 Mar 13 / 14:21    Bet Winnings    1:30 Cheltenham – Puffin Billy @ 14/1 GP (Price taken @ 12/1)    + £135.00    
12 Mar 13 / 14:18    Bet Winnings    1:30 Cheltenham – Jezki @ 5/1 GP (Price taken @ 9/2)    + £157.50  
Possibly Fred's finest day?

X



X Factor - Once in a while someone will post something that changes your outlook on betting. This was one of those
posts in my humble opinion.

Wade over 96.5 average £60@5/6
4 of Taylors 6 opponents have averaged over this when playing him, reasons are obvious as when Taylor is in full flow they have less darts at doubles and just stick to scoring. Ones who averaged less - Anderson and reason was he missed bucket
load of doubles and Taylor averaged sub 100 for only time and Hamilton arguably worst player in perm league averaged
96.4  which is 5pts higher than tourney average. Had my vc account closed today so back it with them

Lewis- Av v Taylor= 104.05 Tournament average WITHOUT taylor= 93.76      Taylor Effect= +10.29
Painter- Av v Taylor= 97.00   Tournament average WO T= 90.26                   Taylor Effect= +6.74
Barny-  Av v Taylor= 105.93 Tournament average WO T= 97.77                    Taylor Effect= +8.16
Whitlock- Av v Taylor= 105.44 Tournament average WO T= 95.44                 Taylor Effect= +10.00
Anderson-  Av v Taylor= 95.02 Tournament average WO T= 90.08                 Taylor Effect= +4.94
Hamilton- Av v Taylor= 96.39 Tournament average WO T= 90.56                   Taylor Effect= +5.83

Average Taylor Effect= +7.66 on a players average

Wades tourny average= 94.24. Therefore we can expect him to average  around 101.90 tonight. And if trends are followed his average will be between 99.18 and 104.53.
I think he averaged about 102, Dubai knew.
Please post more Dave.

Y



Yikes - loads of people I haven't mentioned. Sorry.

Z



Zzzzzz - Sometimes I log into Blonde and there maybe 12 new pages since I'd logged in before I went to work. I always sigh
and look to see what horse Neil has bet and how much everyone has won. More often than not though the twelve pages are down to one Man but there's no tips involved just a conversation he's playing out with himself interspersed with the odd post from Doobs and Adz telling him to shut up. He's somehow managed to make 13,000 posts and
he only joined 18 months ago. We currently have 4,444 pages. I'm sure it would be about 2,100 if it wasn't for this pest. He's also a Spuds fan and the owner of the latest Fred bet. Where would we be without Tal?

I'm sure people will disagree with some of the things I've included' Like I said at the beginning, this is mine so apologies if you haven't had a name check. Please feel free to add your own photo's.

Later.

[Rubbish2407]

Sorry it hasn't formatted properly as well, too many errors to go back in and do it again.

[cheapwetsuit]

Fantastic idea, Rubbish. Must have taken you ages to put together. Possibly the post of the year. Which makes me feel almost guilty to mention that JJ Rojas was not one of my better tips. In fact the one you're referring to is the following:

"Here's a nice read before bedtime:

In cycling, the 2013 edition of the Tour of Beijing will likely be decided by tomorrow's mountainous fourth stage (so likely, in fact, that tomorrow's Stage 4 odds are analogous to the GC odds (which I am still waiting on)). Whereas in previous years, the ToB has been mostly a flat affair, the introduction of a "queen stage" has made this year's event one for the climbers. Tomorrow will see the riders tackling a Cat 1, Cat 2 and a Cat 3 climb before dealing with the final 12.6km (ave. gradient 5.7%) grind up to the summit finish of Mentougou Miaofeng mountain.

As a result, the riders fancied by the bookies for the general classification are all very good climbers: Daniel Martin (2/1) is in great form and is one of the top one-day classics riders in the world; Rui Costa (6/1) is the new world champion and has a very strong team behind him; Christophe Riblon (oddly 50/1) won the Alpe d'Huez stage in this year's Tour de France, and Richie Porte (also oddly 50/1) is the obvious successor to Chris Froome at Sky.

There is one very good climber that has seemingly been ignored by the bookies: Benat Intxausti of Movistar. The most likely reason for the long odds (150/1 @ PP; 125/1 @ Bet365) is that he is the teammate of Costa, and is thus expected to ride in support of him. However, there are a few factors that go against Costa as the favoured Movistar rider:

(1) He has just achieved a major goal by winning the World Championships in Florence, and may feel that he has done enough for the year (and for his team's reputation).

(2) This is his last race for Movistar before joining Lampre in 2014 because he felt he did not get enough opportunities under Valverde and Quintana (could possibly act as motivation to show them what they'll be missing, though).

(3) Intxausti is arguably a better climber than Costa: He finished ahead of Majka, Roche and Konig in Stage 20 of the Vuelta (which he rode as a domestique for Valverde), and placed 8th overall in the Giro, including a stage win.

(4) Costa reportedly contracted a cold/flu in the week between the World Championships and the Giro di Lombardia (in which he rode in support of Valverde). Even though he is a top professional, he might be feeling a little burned out.

All the above makes me think that Benat Intxausti for the general classification (in other words, Stage 4) of the Tour of Beijing represents excellent value. I recommend £5 e/w at 150/1 with PP (or 125/1 with Bet365)."

Sorry for being such a pedant. If it's alright with you, I'll keep the J in the list, as my real name is Jason ... and not cheapwetsuit. Keep up the good work. JB.