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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 16388542 times)
tikay
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« Reply #66900 on: January 29, 2014, 11:32:25 AM »

Betfred go 9/2 Rory McIlroy for the Dubai Golf

This is a good price. Currently 4.6 on Betfair.

Get the blister plasters ready.



A sonour Recommend?

Gotta do this!

It is listed under "PRICE BOOSTS" on Betfred.

I immediately had £40, then cast my mind back to Tiger's woeful efforts last weekend.....

Is this intended purely a Trading Spot?

BET PLACED
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« Reply #66901 on: January 29, 2014, 12:11:58 PM »

11-11 in sixes.

Sad

Sandy
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TightEnd
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« Reply #66902 on: January 29, 2014, 12:20:33 PM »

11-11 in sixes.

Sad

Sandy

I think it was a series sixes bet?
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« Reply #66903 on: January 29, 2014, 12:24:00 PM »

Tina Maze in the gallery  Wink great job Rubbish

She's racing in four skiing events. Her best chance in Sochi could well be in Super G.

http://www.oddschecker.com/winter-olympics/alpine-skiing/olympic-alpine-skiing-womens-super-g/winner

Six girls, plus three or four with decent outside chances, all with a case to be made.
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tikay
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« Reply #66904 on: January 29, 2014, 12:27:42 PM »

11-11 in sixes.

Sad

Sandy

I think it was a series sixes bet?

I just re-visited your Post Rich, & it appears you recommended BOTH. (Series, & 1st ODI) for the Sixes.

Rightly or wrongly, in my haste, I ONLY backed the "Over 10.5 Sixes in the 1st ODI".
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« Reply #66905 on: January 29, 2014, 12:30:33 PM »

Hobart tomorrow is reputed, from pitch positioning and journalist reports (the charabanc following the tour arrived in Tasmania overnight) to have a very short boundary square

It was posted yesterday about Eng winning 4 of 5 of the ODI matches on six count,despite being a losing team

yet Eng are underdogs/odds against in the market for most sixes

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/australia-v-england/t20-series/australia-v-england-%5B1st-t20%5D/team-to-score-most-6s


Anway, total sixes market http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/australia-v-england/t20-series/australia-v-england-%5B1st-t20%5D/total-6s

In the two T20s at the end of the English summer there were 24 and 15 sixes. 24 was an outlier, Finch's fantastic innings but 15 in a 190 plays 170 game was fair enough

As a counter check earlier in the summer NZ v Eng produced 15 sixes too

If there is a short boundary tomorrow as suggested, 10 should be beaten


either market could be backed (Eng 6/5, Over 10.5 sixes)

Eng 6/5 has probably got more to go for in it, ie we aren't paying the over/under spread

Tighty's Recommend.

If an idiot was speed-reading that as to the Sixes you can see why he may have become a little confused. It seems that there are two seperate "Sixes" bets recommended there.

Apologies if I backed the wrong one, or should have backed both.

We did back one winner though. Wink
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« Reply #66906 on: January 29, 2014, 12:36:06 PM »

Sandy recommended most England sixes in the first match prior to Tighty's post.  I assume he is reporting the result of that one. 
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« Reply #66907 on: January 29, 2014, 12:42:38 PM »

In the one day matches England had most sixes 4/5 with one tie.

6/5 most sixes looks pretty tasty. Hills/365 the only 2 i saw.

Sandy

Ahh, I missed this one. Fred is running good again.

I saw Sandy's other one (Swansea corners?) & backed that. Fred is running bad again. 
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« Reply #66908 on: January 29, 2014, 12:55:02 PM »

Betfred go 9/2 Rory McIlroy for the Dubai Golf

This is a good price. Currently 4.6 on Betfair.

Get the blister plasters ready.



A sonour Recommend?

Gotta do this!

It is listed under "PRICE BOOSTS" on Betfred.

I immediately had £40, then cast my mind back to Tiger's woeful efforts last weekend.....

Is this intended purely a Trading Spot?

BET PLACED

Tikay,

I think £40 is a little too much for Fred with only small edge. Could we lay £30 back please. The lay on Betfair is currently 4.9.
You need to press the pink box to lay. Then enter £30 as the stake. The liability £117.

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tikay
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« Reply #66909 on: January 29, 2014, 01:01:09 PM »

Betfred go 9/2 Rory McIlroy for the Dubai Golf

This is a good price. Currently 4.6 on Betfair.

Get the blister plasters ready.



A sonour Recommend?

Gotta do this!

It is listed under "PRICE BOOSTS" on Betfred.

I immediately had £40, then cast my mind back to Tiger's woeful efforts last weekend.....

Is this intended purely a Trading Spot?

BET PLACED

Tikay,

I think £40 is a little too much for Fred with only small edge. Could we lay £30 back please. The lay on Betfair is currently 4.9.
You need to press the pink box to lay. Then enter £30 as the stake. The liability £117.



I think I love you, someone who understands how dibby I am with Betfair, & how I like to be a bit Nitty.

Even told me the colour of the button.

How's this look?


Placed (matched)

Lay (Bet Against)
 
Backer's odds
 
Backer's stake
 
Your liability
 




Dubai Desert Classic 2014



Rory McIlroy Winner

4.9

£30.00


£117.00




Ref: 33707766956M Matched: 12:46 29-Jan-14



BET (LAY) PLACED
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sonour
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« Reply #66910 on: January 29, 2014, 01:03:21 PM »

Betfred go 9/2 Rory McIlroy for the Dubai Golf

This is a good price. Currently 4.6 on Betfair.

Get the blister plasters ready.



A sonour Recommend?

Gotta do this!

It is listed under "PRICE BOOSTS" on Betfred.

I immediately had £40, then cast my mind back to Tiger's woeful efforts last weekend.....

Is this intended purely a Trading Spot?

BET PLACED

Tikay,

I think £40 is a little too much for Fred with only small edge. Could we lay £30 back please. The lay on Betfair is currently 4.9.
You need to press the pink box to lay. Then enter £30 as the stake. The liability £117.



I think I love you, someone who understands how dibby I am with Betfair, & how I like to be a bit Nitty.

Even told me the colour of the button.

How's this look?


Placed (matched)

Lay (Bet Against)
 
Backer's odds
 
Backer's stake
 
Your liability
 




Dubai Desert Classic 2014



Rory McIlroy Winner

4.9

£30.00


£117.00




Ref: 33707766956M Matched: 12:46 29-Jan-14



BET (LAY) PLACED

Lovely. Smiley
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sonour
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« Reply #66911 on: January 29, 2014, 01:14:04 PM »

Ok, so if McIlroy wins we win £180 less £117 = £63

If McIlroy doesn't win we lose £40 minus £30 minus £1.50 Betfair commission = £11.50

So effectively we have £11.50 to win £63 which is just under 5.5 to 1 when he is currently under 4/1 on Betfair.
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tikay
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« Reply #66912 on: January 29, 2014, 01:14:58 PM »

Ok, so if McIlroy wins we win £180 less £117 = £63

If McIlroy doesn't win we lose £40 minus £30 minus £1.50 Betfair commission = £11.50

So effectively we have £11.50 to win £63 which is just under 5.5 to 1 when he is currently under 4/1 on Betfair.

Yes yes, exactly what I surmised........

Wink
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« Reply #66913 on: January 29, 2014, 01:22:42 PM »

Betfred go 9/2 Rory McIlroy for the Dubai Golf

This is a good price. Currently 4.6 on Betfair.

Get the blister plasters ready.



A sonour Recommend?

Gotta do this!

It is listed under "PRICE BOOSTS" on Betfred.

I immediately had £40, then cast my mind back to Tiger's woeful efforts last weekend.....

Is this intended purely a Trading Spot?

BET PLACED

Tikay,

I think £40 is a little too much for Fred with only small edge. Could we lay £30 back please. The lay on Betfair is currently 4.9.
You need to press the pink box to lay. Then enter £30 as the stake. The liability £117.



I think I love you, someone who understands how dibby I am with Betfair, & how I like to be a bit Nitty.

Even told me the colour of the button.

How's this look?


Placed (matched)

Lay (Bet Against)
 
Backer's odds
 
Backer's stake
 
Your liability
 




Dubai Desert Classic 2014



Rory McIlroy Winner

4.9

£30.00


£117.00




Ref: 33707766956M Matched: 12:46 29-Jan-14



BET (LAY) PLACED

Lovely. Smiley


Is 4.9 too short?  If so, we should be laying a lot more.  

Why didn't we just lay the 4.6 which was the price when BetFred put up the offer?

Whilst we have always been able to arb offers, the reason we don't is because long run we split our profits for the offers 3 way between us, Betfair backers and Betfair themselves.   If the edge in the original bet was small, why are we sharing it?

At least that is what I think Neil would have said if he was here Wink
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sonour
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« Reply #66914 on: January 29, 2014, 01:46:08 PM »

Betfred go 9/2 Rory McIlroy for the Dubai Golf

This is a good price. Currently 4.6 on Betfair.

Get the blister plasters ready.



A sonour Recommend?

Gotta do this!

It is listed under "PRICE BOOSTS" on Betfred.

I immediately had £40, then cast my mind back to Tiger's woeful efforts last weekend.....

Is this intended purely a Trading Spot?

BET PLACED

Tikay,

I think £40 is a little too much for Fred with only small edge. Could we lay £30 back please. The lay on Betfair is currently 4.9.
You need to press the pink box to lay. Then enter £30 as the stake. The liability £117.



I think I love you, someone who understands how dibby I am with Betfair, & how I like to be a bit Nitty.

Even told me the colour of the button.

How's this look?


Placed (matched)

Lay (Bet Against)
 
Backer's odds
 
Backer's stake
 
Your liability
 




Dubai Desert Classic 2014



Rory McIlroy Winner

4.9

£30.00


£117.00




Ref: 33707766956M Matched: 12:46 29-Jan-14



BET (LAY) PLACED

Lovely. Smiley


Is 4.9 too short?  If so, we should be laying a lot more.  

Why didn't we just lay the 4.6 which was the price when BetFred put up the offer?

Whilst we have always been able to arb offers, the reason we don't is because long run we split our profits for the offers 3 way between us, Betfair backers and Betfair themselves.   If the edge in the original bet was small, why are we sharing it?

At least that is what I think Neil would have said if he was here Wink


Because we only want £10 on. I could have just recommended £10 at 9/2 and left it at that.

My preference would have been to back £200 at 9/2 at Betfair. Then lay £190 back. Now if McIlroy wins we win £900 minus £741 = £159.
If McIlroy doesn't win we lose £200 minus £190 plus £9.50 Betfair commission = £19.50.

So we have £19.50 to win £159 which is over 8/1.

My philosophy is work out how much you want to bet, but bet the maximum you can and lay the difference.

I'll probably bet over £5,000 with Betfred on this today but I don't want to risk £5,000 however good value it is. I'll probably only actually bet £200 but I'm a lot better off betting £5,000 and laying £4,800 back than just betting £200.
I hope that makes sense.

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