Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Chamakh way out of line at 6/1 for a Yellow Card at Arsenal at 4pm with Baldhead. He's had 7 yellows in 24 games already this season.

Just woken up, got to BetFred in the Nick of time - they now go 3/1!

Sorry, he who snoozes & all that.

We are NOT on.

He got booked? Bugger!

[Tal]

I have read in some pages that usually when a team wins the Super Bowl its QB gets the MVP award.

Bearing this in mind is it worth it to bet on Manning to be the MVP, instead on Broncos to win on Moneyline or even on the Handicap, as the odds are a bit better?

Is it mostly always the QB?  Is betting on both Wilson and Manning a +ev move given they are both above evens?

If you do level stakes on both of them if Manning wins it then your profits will be really small as Manning is only 2.1 to win the MVP.

The stats say that out of the 47 winners, 39 of them belonged to the offensive line-up of the winning team, 8 to the defensive and 1 in the special line-up.

26 out of the 47 winners were QBs. Also the last 4 years the award has been given to a QB.

If Denver win, it's pretty much a foregone conclusion that Manning gets MVP. If he is injured, you can't see Denver winning. If Denver win, it will be his quick eye and arm that pick out the winning passes. They won't win by just trying to run through Seattle.

If Seattle win, it isn't as simple as saying Wilson gets MVP. He isn't thesuperstar in their team, at least to the level Manning is for the Broncos. They have a huge weapon in Marshawn Lynch, who got IIRC the most rushing touchdowns in the regular season in the NFL. If he has a great game, not only is that good for his MVP chances, it will also mean for those TDs Wilson hasn't done much other than hand him the ball (I know that is simplistic, but you know what I mean).

I think Manning MVP is better value than Denver to win, but that's just a personal Ice Cream View.

[redarmi]

I have read in some pages that usually when a team wins the Super Bowl its QB gets the MVP award.

Bearing this in mind is it worth it to bet on Manning to be the MVP, instead on Broncos to win on Moneyline or even on the Handicap, as the odds are a bit better?

Is it mostly always the QB?  Is betting on both Wilson and Manning a +ev move given they are both above evens?

If you do level stakes on both of them if Manning wins it then your profits will be really small as Manning is only 2.1 to win the MVP.

The stats say that out of the 47 winners, 39 of them belonged to the offensive line-up of the winning team, 8 to the defensive and 1 in the special line-up.

26 out of the 47 winners were QBs. Also the last 4 years the award has been given to a QB.

I think it is fair to say that if Denver win then Manning is overwhelmingly likely to be MVP but he isn't an absolute certainty.  I suspect the only other Denver player that  could win would be Knowshon Moreno.  If they win the game through passing Mannings uses so many different receivers that none ever really outshine him.  If you like Denver then 11/10 Manning for MVP is probably an okay way to boost your payout.  I would guess he is really a 1/8 shot if they win so the maths would be something along the lines of 1.86 (true odds for Denver) * 1.125 = 2.09 so you would be gaining a tiny bit betting it that way.

[tikay]

Got a few minutes, so got started.

Seattle Seahawks (+2), £42 @ 20/21, BetVictor, Tighty

BET PLACED

[Tal]

Speaking of Knowshon Moreno, skibet says it is 5/2 he cries during the national anthem. He's said before he can't help but cry when he hears it and, as it will be a proper singer singing it and not some Pop Factor nonsense, with heightened emotions, maybe that's a fun one. I suspect the bookies have priced that on the short side, mind. He will know everyone will be watching his tear ducts.

[tikay]

OVER 3.5 Field Goals, £40 @ 11/10, BetFred, Tighty

BET PLACED

[tikay]

Total Points (redarmi).

I cannot get 48.5 on any of my Accounts, and I don't have time to sort alternatives, so we have taken a slightly worse line.

UNDER 48 points, £44@ 10/11, Wm Hill, redarmi

BET PLACED

[Tal]

If you're doing an Under on the total points bet, I would ask whether better value might be in the largest lead market.

You can get 11/10 on Under 13.5 points with Patrick Parr.

That's what I'm going with on the points side, anyway.


(BTW, I haven't at this point looked at the BE bets, so if there is any overlap - or contradiction - all I can say is apologies and this is purely my own opinion)

[tikay]

Decker Receiving Yards.

Had no idea if Under 60.5 @ 10/11 or Under 63.5 @ 5/6 was better. Went for the latter. Has to be the wrong one......

Decker, UNDER 63.5 Receiving Yards, £40 @ 5/6, BeyFred, redarmi.

BET PLACED

[tikay]

 

If you're doing an Under on the total points bet, I would ask whether better value might be in the largest lead market.

You can get 11/10 on Under 13.5 points with Patrick Parr.

That's what I'm going with on the points side, anyway.


(BTW, I haven't at this point looked at the BE bets, so if there is any overlap - or contradiction - all I can say is apologies and this is purely my own opinion)

Sorry, too late!

[tikay]

OK, we have a few sweats now, thanks.

If anyone else has anything, please stick them up, and if OK, I will try and get aboard after work.

Enjoy your Sunday evening.

[Tal]

If you're doing an Under on the total points bet, I would ask whether better value might be in the largest lead market.

You can get 11/10 on Under 13.5 points with Patrick Parr.

That's what I'm going with on the points side, anyway.


(BTW, I haven't at this point looked at the BE bets, so if there is any overlap - or contradiction - all I can say is apologies and this is purely my own opinion)

Sorry, too late!

No problem.

Just because I've said it, doesn't mean it's right.

[The Camel]

I do think Montee Ball will see a great deal of playing time tonight (Moreno not 100% and likely to be in his last game from the Broncos. Ball is the future), but with the weather set fair (Manning likely to throw a great deal) and Seattle's stout defense, I don't think he's nearly such a good bet as he was against the Pats.

If you like Denver, Manning MVP seems solid to me.

[Tal]

Here's a stat I've read today: Seattle is the first team since 1990's Buffalo Bills to go to the Superbowl with no players who have played a Superbowl before.

For those who don't know, that game did not end well.



Oh, and in the past seven Superbowls, the team with the better defense is just 1-6 against the spread. That would favour Denver.

[GreekWay]

I do think Montee Ball will see a great deal of playing time tonight (Moreno not 100% and likely to be in his last game from the Broncos. Ball is the future), but with the weather set fair (Manning likely to throw a great deal) and Seattle's stout defense, I don't think he's nearly such a good bet as he was against the Pats.

If you like Denver, Manning MVP seems solid to me.

I have put £20 on Manning to be the MVP. That's my suggestion if Fred wants to follow.