Tips for Tikay

[Chompy]

The League 2 top scorer market is an interesting one, in that the top three in the list are (3+) clear of the rest, all are with teams chasing promotion, and all are being touted for better things.

3.6.5 go 2/1 Winnall (15), 5/1 Hogan (13), 6/1 Murphy (13), 11 Bar and are still 1/4 1, 2, 3. Not a palp either, just a very punter-friendly book.

This is not a fledgling market, we're 30 games through a 46-game season and there's a good chance the current top three will finish as the top three.

Scott Hogan is the interesting one:

"SUNDERLAND are rumoured to be among several clubs tracking the 21-year-old Rochdale top scorer.

Rochdale accepted a substantial offer from League One outfit Peterborough United for Hogan earlier this month, which was reported to be close to £1 million, but he chose to stay at Spotland, for the time being at least.

Hogan was signed on a two-year contract from Hyde last May and has more than rewarded the faith shown in him by manager Keith Hill.

He has scored 12 goals in 25 starts and two substitute appearances for Rochdale this season."


That story is semi-accurate from what I can work out. Poshies had a bid accepted and the player was keen to join, but his agent then screwed things up by asking for bigger wages than any Posh player has ever had, more even than Boydy, who was on a healthy chunk towards the end.

Match reports from this weekend are a bit odd. Keith Hill seems to be making out that he never wanted to sell the player and that the interest only served to mess with his head.

He's obviously going on to better things and Rochdale aren't in a false league position.

You're gonna love this one...Rec £100 EW, Scott Hogan 5/1 365, 1/4 1, 2, 3

I know we can't get on with 3 six 5 but if someone else can oblige?

[tikay]

The League 2 top scorer market is an interesting one, in that the top three in the list are (3+) clear of the rest, all are with teams chasing promotion, and all are being touted for better things.

3.6.5 go 2/1 Winnall (15), 5/1 Hogan (13), 6/1 Murphy (13), 11 Bar and are still 1/4 1, 2, 3. Not a palp either, just a very punter-friendly book.

This is not a fledgling market, we're 30 games through a 46-game season and there's a good chance the current top three will finish as the top three.

Scott Hogan is the interesting one:

"SUNDERLAND are rumoured to be among several clubs tracking the 21-year-old Rochdale top scorer.

Rochdale accepted a substantial offer from League One outfit Peterborough United for Hogan earlier this month, which was reported to be close to £1 million, but he chose to stay at Spotland, for the time being at least.

Hogan was signed on a two-year contract from Hyde last May and has more than rewarded the faith shown in him by manager Keith Hill.

He has scored 12 goals in 25 starts and two substitute appearances for Rochdale this season."


That story is semi-accurate from what I can work out. Poshies had a bid accepted and the player was keen to join, but his agent then screwed things up by asking for bigger wages than any Posh player has ever had, more even than Boydy, who was on a healthy chunk towards the end.

Match reports from this weekend are a bit odd. Keith Hill seems to be making out that he never wanted to sell the player and that the interest only served to mess with his head.

He's obviously going on to better things and Rochdale aren't in a false league position.

You're gonna love this one...Rec £100 EW, Scott Hogan 5/1 365, 1/4 1, 2, 3

I know we can't get on with 3 six 5 but if someone else can oblige?

Nice summing up Chompy, thank you.

3 six 5 permitted me a whole £7.50 EW, so fwiw, I have taken that, at least we have something.

If someone else could oblige for the rest, yes, I'd be grateful.

[Killerkilsby]

4/1 now killed it already!

[Chompy]

4/1 now killed it already!

Yikes! £7.50 EW moved the market!

If this one binks, it'll cost the industry millions and they won't be able to afford to sponsor the jolly green giants

[tikay]

4/1 now killed it already!

Yikes! £7.50 EW moved the market!

If this one binks, it'll cost the industry millions and they won't be able to afford to sponsor the jolly green giants

That's twice I've moved Markets today. £7.50 @ 5/1, & £1.24 @ 10/1.

Such power. In yer eye, Benham.  

After the weekend's football results, the bookies ought to be in a more generous mood, I'd have thought. The Bookies got the better of most this weekend.

[tikay]

I like Brighton to win at home to Leeds on Tuesday.
Brighton's form is patchy, and their manager is under a bit of pressure, plus losing Bridcutt is a blow.
On the flip side everyone else is now fit, and they have been playing decent/creating chances, without scoring too many goals.

Leeds aren't great, and still have a bit of behind the scenes distraction.
Brighton should be odds-on (imo), and will probably be 10/11 by the off.
Currently 11/10 which is a bit of value (were 6/5 this morning which has gone now).
Recommend £30 @ 11/10 with BetThread or Lads.

Not forgotten this Neil.

Think the debate is whether it offers value.

Evens is the best available to Fred now, via Ladbrokes.


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/brighton-v-leeds/winner

[tikay]

The horse runs in the Gold Cup at Leopardstown today. I will probably bet it to win this afternoon but I have backed it each-way at 50/1 for the Gold Cup. It is 48-50 on the machine and 9.0-12.5 a place so on that basis it's probably OK.

 taking today's race and thinking about the Gold Cup. I am always a layer of Tidal Bay. You could say that the Welsh National was it's best ever run and it did amazingly well conceding all that weight and only getting beaten a length. Lots of people have removed the squiggle in their minds but it's still there for me. Obviously not improving at 13.

 First Lieutenant is 5/2 today and that seems no value with a question on the ground. I'm sure it won't stay the trip in the Gold Cup and this year the owner will want this to be his main runner. 14/1 against 50/1 of our horse is mad.

 Lord Windermere is a lovely horse but it and it's stable are so out of form. Couldn't back it for today or Cheltenham.

 Roi du Mee is not good enough and ran bad last time.

 Texas Jack will probably not beat Last Instalment and may not see out the trip.

  We are left with two for today and for the Gold Cup.

 The one I like but haven't bet yet (maybe I will actually) is Last Instalment. This one is a course and distance winner that doesn't have heavy milage on the clock and will improve after a comeback following an injury. Big price today and for the Gold Cup. The doubts would be the dreaded "bounce" and it may be going to the Ryan Air rather than the Gold Cup.

 The one I have bet though is Lyreen Legend. It's got Cheltenham form as it was 2nd in the RSA behind Lord Windermere. It's still young and improving, it should come on for it's last run and if it wins here I could see it shortening up massively for the Gold Cup.

 50/1 each-way is still there with UnSportingnobet, Stalling Games, Loserbrokes, Baldfred, Winner etc. Not sure how the Magic Sign and Baldy haven't shortened it as I'm on. If you want to punish Winner then open via BettingEmporium to make Mr Beevers happy.

 Lyreen Legend ew at 50/1 for the TLDR crew.

Thanks Neil.

Fred is ON.

Before I Post the bet, or bets, views on how much, please?

Our position is reserved @ 50/1, in two spots, BetFred (Restricted) & Ladbrokes.

We MUST make the decision "how much" before the race this afternoon though.

I've had £8 EW (Restricted to that) & £20 EW, both at 50/1, but I'll happily keep some for myself if that is too much for Fred.

CONFIRMATION ONLY


£20 EW with Ladbrokes @ 50/1, qtr odds 1,2,3,4.

£8 EW with Betfred @ 50/1, qtr odds 1,2,3,4.


Cheltenham Gold Cup 
Cheltenham Gold Cup
Non Runner No Bet 
2014-03-13 17:30:00
Lyreen Legend @ 50/1 (each-way 1/4 1,2,3)
  Pending   
 
 
 
  Channel   Internet 
 
  Bet Placed At   09/02/2014 
 
  Bet Type   Single 
 
  Stake Per Line   £20.00 
 
  Number Of Lines   2 
 
  Total Stake Paid   £40.00 
 
----

/9/2014 1:24:30 PM

260/
280

W:8.00 S:8.00

Single

2014 Betfred Gold Cup /Outright Nrnb

Lyreen Legend



50/1

Open

O

£16.00

£0.00


2 BETS PLACED

[tikay]

Thought I'd do a quick update for everyone that was on Maxence Parrot in the Men's Snowboard Slopestyle event. Our boy finished in fifth place, with the win going to stylish surfer-dude Sage Kotsenburg who defied the logic of this writer:
http://snowboarding.transworld.net/1000219991/photos/sochi-2014-mens-olympic-slopestyle-outlook/

It seems with hindsight that the judges were after innovative tricks and stylish grabs, instead of whirlwind-like spins. There is a feeling (most notably amongst Canadians) that Max was robbed. To be fair, if he had nailed the last jump of his first run, we might have been necking champagne. But his second run was sketchier, and would not have won in any event ... although imo it was still more technical (and thus deserving of points) than Kotsenburg's. The real losers were Mark McMorris, Stale Sandbech, and our very own Jamie Nicholls, who must all be scratching their heads today.

Still, if the same guys are judging the halfpipe competition, the following logic might come into play:
http://ftw.usatoday.com/2014/02/sage-kotsenburg-danny-davis-olympics-snowboarding/

Not a recommend. Just saying.

Thanks.

I'm a little confused by all these weird Markets, Snowboard this that & the other. Can you give me the Oddschecker Link, please?

The only onr I can find is this, which I am sure is incorrect.....


http://www.oddschecker.com/winter-olympics/snowboarding/olympic-snowboarding-mens-halfpipe/winner

[tikay]

Ladjokes are 14/1 for Gold Cup, NRNB.

REC £100 win

We were restricted to £20 I'm afraid, but at least we got that. As I could only get £20, we went win only.

BET PLACED

CONFIRMATION ONLY

I'm not sure who owns this bet, Adzy, Chomps, or One More Day of Misery.

Anyway, we have £20 WIN @ 14/1, NRNB, with Ladbrokes, Last Instalment, Chelters Gold Cup.


Cheltenham Gold Cup 
Cheltenham Gold Cup
Non Runner No Bet 
2014-03-13 17:30:00
Last Instalment @ 14/1
  Pending   
 
 
 
  Channel   Mobile 
 
  Bet Placed At   09/02/2014 
 
  Bet Type   Single 
 
  Stake Per Line   £20.00
 


BET PLACED

[tikay]

Lads are holding 14/1. Worth a trip to the shop?

Owner sayed will go for Gold Cup as long as the ground isn't quick and he'll defo start shorter. Ireland's only realistic hope. Be perfect for a trade imo, so fill up!

A shop? Me? With the public there, & everything?

[tikay]

Phil Taylor was on the receiving end of a tonking from MVG last week in his first competitive match with his new darts which saw Lewis installed as favourite for their match on Thursday.  Taylor has been getting some further competitive action this weekend and has posted multiple 100+ averages and a 9-darter. There is still some 6/4 left, recommend £40.

Thanks Bazza, am following the man in form, after your lovely spot on Saturday.

We have £40 @ 6/4 with Corals.

BET PLACED

CONFIRMATION ONLY


09/02/2014 17:28PM



Single
To Win

£ 40.00

Phil Taylor - Adrian Lewis v Phil Taylor - Match Betting @ 6/4

BET PLACED

[cheapwetsuit]

Thought I'd do a quick update for everyone that was on Maxence Parrot in the Men's Snowboard Slopestyle event. Our boy finished in fifth place, with the win going to stylish surfer-dude Sage Kotsenburg who defied the logic of this writer:
http://snowboarding.transworld.net/1000219991/photos/sochi-2014-mens-olympic-slopestyle-outlook/

It seems with hindsight that the judges were after innovative tricks and stylish grabs, instead of whirlwind-like spins. There is a feeling (most notably amongst Canadians) that Max was robbed. To be fair, if he had nailed the last jump of his first run, we might have been necking champagne. But his second run was sketchier, and would not have won in any event ... although imo it was still more technical (and thus deserving of points) than Kotsenburg's. The real losers were Mark McMorris, Stale Sandbech, and our very own Jamie Nicholls, who must all be scratching their heads today.

Still, if the same guys are judging the halfpipe competition, the following logic might come into play:
http://ftw.usatoday.com/2014/02/sage-kotsenburg-danny-davis-olympics-snowboarding/

Not a recommend. Just saying.

Thanks.

I'm a little confused by all these weird Markets, Snowboard this that & the other. Can you give me the Oddschecker Link, please?

The only onr I can find is this, which I am sure is incorrect.....


http://www.oddschecker.com/winter-olympics/snowboarding/olympic-snowboarding-mens-halfpipe/winner

That's the one. Although not much value betting on Danny Davis. Maybe with bwin.

[tikay]

I have heard back from my top secret - TOP SECRET - consultant and haven't been put off, although I'll happily accept responsibility for the abuse if this one falls flat. Only the abuse, mind...

The second Deputy Governor spot in the Monetary Policy Committee gets announced soon. Pressure is building on the Government to appoint a woman to the all-male committee, whose job it is to set interest rates. Even the Governor himself (Mark Carney, not Paul Ince) has commented that there is something of a 'Gentlemen's Club' feel to it. There are actually few candidates who would be suitable, were the decision to be taken that a woman should be chosen. The 5/4 jolly has a Y chromosome, so let's count him out.

Margaret Hogg is 4/1 and the favourite woman. She was Carney's first appointment at the Bank of England as Chief Operating Officer and is his eyes and ears at the Bank. She also is the daughter of a Tory politician of note (think cleaning out moats...) and a Baroness. The Bank of England only has one woman at its top table and appointing her to a different senior position would create a headache for the Bank. I'm thinking no.

There is also Lucrezia Reichlin. She has a very impressive CV, including pioneering economic work and working with the European Central Bank. She specialises in monetary policy. 10/1. I think the only barrier for her would be she is the daughter of Alfonso Reichlin, the prominent Italian communist (wiki tells me, although my Italian isn't all that good). It seems kind of bizarre to say that she'll be fodder for the tabloids if she gets the job, as it would have been said already, plus she's not all that important for the red top rags. She currently is a professor at the London School of Economics.

Sheila Dow and others used to advise the Treasury Select Committe when it was a Labour government. Seems unlikely to me that George Osborne would do something with even the remotest chance of pleasing Ed Balls.

I want to recommend a gambler's bet on Reichlin at 10/1 with the green, Irish bookmaker that rhymes with Daddy Flower. £10?

CONFIRMATION ONLY

£1.24 (One Pound twenty four pence) @10/1, Ms Reichlin.


10/02/2014

Single To Win

Lucrezia Reichlin @ 10/1
Next Deputy Governor
Next Deputy Governor of Monetary Policy

Pending

£1.24

BET PLACED

[tikay]

Thought I'd do a quick update for everyone that was on Maxence Parrot in the Men's Snowboard Slopestyle event. Our boy finished in fifth place, with the win going to stylish surfer-dude Sage Kotsenburg who defied the logic of this writer:
http://snowboarding.transworld.net/1000219991/photos/sochi-2014-mens-olympic-slopestyle-outlook/

It seems with hindsight that the judges were after innovative tricks and stylish grabs, instead of whirlwind-like spins. There is a feeling (most notably amongst Canadians) that Max was robbed. To be fair, if he had nailed the last jump of his first run, we might have been necking champagne. But his second run was sketchier, and would not have won in any event ... although imo it was still more technical (and thus deserving of points) than Kotsenburg's. The real losers were Mark McMorris, Stale Sandbech, and our very own Jamie Nicholls, who must all be scratching their heads today.

Still, if the same guys are judging the halfpipe competition, the following logic might come into play:
http://ftw.usatoday.com/2014/02/sage-kotsenburg-danny-davis-olympics-snowboarding/

Not a recommend. Just saying.

Thanks.

I'm a little confused by all these weird Markets, Snowboard this that & the other. Can you give me the Oddschecker Link, please?

The only onr I can find is this, which I am sure is incorrect.....


http://www.oddschecker.com/winter-olympics/snowboarding/olympic-snowboarding-mens-halfpipe/winner

That's the one. Although not much value betting on Danny Davis. Maybe with bwin.

Thanks.

He is so far out of line on BWin, & with the jolly being so short, I think it's worth a tenner.

£10 @ 9/1, BWin,  Danny Davis, Mens Halfpipe Snowboardy Thing.


Type of bet

1TAT69FGH6
2/10/2014 12:53 PM
10.00 GBP
100.00 GBP


2/11/2014 6:30:00 PM

Halfpipe - Men Halfpipe (Sochi/RUS)

Antepost Winner (Others on request)

Davis

 ?

10

BET PLACED

[tikay]

Must confess was very taken with Last Installment. The form lines in Ireland would almost suggest he is the one to beat in the GC.

I was also very taken with the way Lyreen Legend travelled and jumped, but not for the first time he ran out of stamina. He form history is littered with finishing fairly close to decent horses in big races, but always fading over the last couple of furlongs. He did the same in the RSA last year and although only young and open to develop his stamina it is hard to think in 4 weeks he will find or develop those hidden reserves.

However, I love the thought of him having a stab at the Ryanair, which is over what to me looks his optimum distance for now, for which I see few candidates with similar credentials.

As it was not my recommend I defer to what Neil and other think, but the 20s NRNB with 365 could look big if Hughes has a change of heart, and money back if he doesn't.

Details to follow, but we have approx £10 EW on Lyreen Legend for the Ryanair. I had to use THREE different bookies to get a total of £10 EW on, lol.

Bet365 & Sporting Bet both restricted us, so I got the rest on with BetFred.

Incredible scenes.

3 BETS PLACED

Lyreen Legend, Ryanair Chase.

£1.50 EW, Bet365, @ 20/1, qtr odds 1,2,3. NRNB.

£3.03 EW, Sporting Bet, @ 33/1qtr odds 1,2,3.

£5 EW, BetFred, @ 33/1, qtr odds 1,2,3.



Lyreen Legend @ 20/1
£1.50  Single

10/02/2014 09:12:14

1.50



Bet Confirmation  - HA1078687510I  - Internet   Time of bet:  10/02/2014 09:12:14


Lyreen Legend

Ryanair Chase
(Win And Each Way)

13/03/2014

3 Places
1/4 Odds

20/1

____

Bet Type: Single
Ryanair Chase 2014 (Cheltenham) Latest PricesLyreen Legend33/1

 
Each Way: 1/4 1 - 3

Possible Payout 131.05 GBP

2 bets @
3.03 GBP


Total Cost: 6.06 GBP
Total Possible Payout (inc. stake): 131.05 GBP

___


 2/10/2014 9:23:43 AM

263/
283

W:5.00 S:5.00

Single

2014 Ryanair Chase /Antepost Outright

Lyreen Legend



33/1




3 BETS PLACED