Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

SA 96/3 now, but none for Lyon yet.

The 3 wickets have all gone to different bowlers though, so we are not in terrible shape. 

[doubleup]

Lyon off 

[sonour]

Coral NRNB on all Cheltenham races from today

[Omm]

anyone know what the scoring system for dancing on ice final is?  viewers vote/panel vote?  Views on the current prices given Ray being in the vote off last night?  My personal view is that surely rays supporters will come out to vote after the shock of him being in the pllay off this week and that 1/3 Ray looks reasonably big and an over reaction to last night

Pretty sure the judges scores have no influence in the final. Top 2 will skate to Bolero. Your right Ray will def get a bounce from this week, probably the best thing that could happen to him as he was always going to be saved by the judges and it will give his fans a wake up call. That being said I wouldn't be rushing to take 1/3. Your assuming his fan base is bigger than the girls. Yes he is popular but Beth is getting votes because the judges are against her and the public always like sticking two fingers up at the pros. Hayley's fan base is relatively big and her partner - Dan is a very popular skater with a fan base all of his own ( same amount of twitter followers as Ray) As well as this Hayley and Dan should be doing Jai Ho in the final which will boost their votes and a lot of activity on twitter suggests their fans vote numerous numerous numerous (yes that many) times. Also I think it's the first time Ray was not top of the leader board and he finished in the bottom two. It seems Beth might be getting more votes than anyone as she has generally been near the bottom by the judges the last few weeks but not in the skate off.

Taking all that into consideration any one of the final three can win it. If there was any justice Ray would win for being the best but Chris Fountain was just as good a skater and he never won. As well as this Ray has always been a great skater, where the girls have got better each week and shown a big improvement.

No, real justice would be Hayley winning so that I can record my first TFT winning bet. Good luck if you lump on Ray - he does deserve it. But I couldn't put anyone off any of them, I even took abit of the 10-1 pp had on Beth last night.

[doubleup]

Not looking good fast bowlers running amok

[arbboy]

anyone know what the scoring system for dancing on ice final is?  viewers vote/panel vote?  Views on the current prices given Ray being in the vote off last night?  My personal view is that surely rays supporters will come out to vote after the shock of him being in the pllay off this week and that 1/3 Ray looks reasonably big and an over reaction to last night

Pretty sure the judges scores have no influence in the final. Top 2 will skate to Bolero. Your right Ray will def get a bounce from this week, probably the best thing that could happen to him as he was always going to be saved by the judges and it will give his fans a wake up call. That being said I wouldn't be rushing to take 1/3. Your assuming his fan base is bigger than the girls. Yes he is popular but Beth is getting votes because the judges are against her and the public always like sticking two fingers up at the pros. Hayley's fan base is relatively big and her partner - Dan is a very popular skater with a fan base all of his own ( same amount of twitter followers as Ray) As well as this Hayley and Dan should be doing Jai Ho in the final which will boost their votes and a lot of activity on twitter suggests their fans vote numerous numerous numerous (yes that many) times. Also I think it's the first time Ray was not top of the leader board and he finished in the bottom two. It seems Beth might be getting more votes than anyone as she has generally been near the bottom by the judges the last few weeks but not in the skate off.


Taking all that into consideration any one of the final three can win it. If there was any justice Ray would win for being the best but Chris Fountain was just as good a skater and he never won. As well as this Ray has always been a great skater, where the girls have got better each week and shown a big improvement.

No, real justice would be Hayley winning so that I can record my first TFT winning bet. Good luck if you lump on Ray - he does deserve it. But I couldn't put anyone off any of them, I even took abit of the 10-1 pp had on Beth last night.

i haven't got a clue about either's fan base size etc etc just looking at the situation itself and it seems a good 'bounce back' spot plus as someone said on the bf forum that as this is the finale of DOI they will want the best skater to win but if its a public vote that isn't an issue as the real clued up ones (the panel) will not have a say in the result.

[TightEnd]

Value Bet

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/six-nations/winner

Eng are 4/9 to beat Wales at Twick, Wales 2/1

France should win in Scotland

Ireland should win in Italy


I think, like the Eng-Ire game, Eng/Wales is 50-50.

If we postulate that Wales win, and the other results go as expected

With one game to go it will be

Wales 3-1
France 3-1
Ireland 3-1

Last game Wales host Scotland, France host Ireland

Wales will be 4-1
France will be 8/13 Ire 11/8 for the final game - as Twickenham odds for the Ireland game


So Wales and one of France/Ireland will be 4-1

Six Nations tiebreakers

1 Points difference
2 no of tries scored
3 shared

Currently

Ireland +42
Wales +6
France +1

Wales beat Eng, then Scotland the PD is up
France beat Scotland, then Ireland the GD is up

but, they go away to Scotland, Wales host Scotland

Ireland would be 3-2, Eng would be 3-2

So Wales for the SixN is a treble

2/1(England match)*1/5(Scotland match)*8/13(France to beat Ireland)= 4.82/1

Compared to 5.82, we can get 6.4 on bf

If we plug in a lower price than 2-1 Wales at Twickenham, my view, then we have more value

http://www.betfair.com/exchange/rugby-union/market?id=1.109590806&mpch=ads&rfr=63


This might even be a split bet....by laying England, who can beat Wales and Italy and still not win the SixN on PD..for example if Ireland win twice, or France win twice and overtake the points difference

Ireland host Italy, England go to Italy...and Ireland have 21 points advantage over England currently


Would like to suggest a split bet

Six Nations winner

Lay England liability £40 at 2.66 (lay of £25)

Back Wales £40 at 6.4

Betfair

BUMP

http://www.walesonline.co.uk/sport/rugby/rugby-news/delme-parfitt-forget-hypejust-three-6763568

Also makes the point that Wales should be favourites for this weekend

Best prices currently England 2.74 and Wales 5.8, so the market has gone against placing the bet

I simply can't have Wales being 2/1 on Saturday though. It's a 4/5-5/4 type game.

[TightEnd]

Not looking good fast bowlers running amok

this is what I said at 8.30am. The cloud cover hurts the Lyon bet, but means the Australia win bet is that much more likely

For the Lyon bet, we needed the cloudless skies of the first day and a half so the quicks weren't helped and Lyon could get long spells in as the South African spinner Duminy did in taking 4 wickets

[tikay]

Not looking good fast bowlers running amok

this is what I said at 8.30am. The cloud cover hurts the Lyon bet, but means the Australia win bet is that much more likely

For the Lyon bet, we needed the cloudless skies of the first day and a half so the quicks weren't helped and Lyon could get long spells in as the South African spinner Duminy did in taking 4 wickets

The weather just fell very wrong for us, & the Lyon bet is now just about dead, but you also suggested Aussies @ 11/4, & they are now 1.4 on Betty.

Fred was late on the scene, but we have £50 @ 2.48, so we might just get out of it.

[tikay]

Value Bet

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/six-nations/winner

Eng are 4/9 to beat Wales at Twick, Wales 2/1

France should win in Scotland

Ireland should win in Italy


I think, like the Eng-Ire game, Eng/Wales is 50-50.

If we postulate that Wales win, and the other results go as expected

With one game to go it will be

Wales 3-1
France 3-1
Ireland 3-1

Last game Wales host Scotland, France host Ireland

Wales will be 4-1
France will be 8/13 Ire 11/8 for the final game - as Twickenham odds for the Ireland game


So Wales and one of France/Ireland will be 4-1

Six Nations tiebreakers

1 Points difference
2 no of tries scored
3 shared

Currently

Ireland +42
Wales +6
France +1

Wales beat Eng, then Scotland the PD is up
France beat Scotland, then Ireland the GD is up

but, they go away to Scotland, Wales host Scotland

Ireland would be 3-2, Eng would be 3-2

So Wales for the SixN is a treble

2/1(England match)*1/5(Scotland match)*8/13(France to beat Ireland)= 4.82/1

Compared to 5.82, we can get 6.4 on bf

If we plug in a lower price than 2-1 Wales at Twickenham, my view, then we have more value

http://www.betfair.com/exchange/rugby-union/market?id=1.109590806&mpch=ads&rfr=63


This might even be a split bet....by laying England, who can beat Wales and Italy and still not win the SixN on PD..for example if Ireland win twice, or France win twice and overtake the points difference

Ireland host Italy, England go to Italy...and Ireland have 21 points advantage over England currently


Would like to suggest a split bet

Six Nations winner

Lay England liability £40 at 2.66 (lay of £25)

Back Wales £40 at 6.4

Betfair

BUMP

http://www.walesonline.co.uk/sport/rugby/rugby-news/delme-parfitt-forget-hypejust-three-6763568

Also makes the point that Wales should be favourites for this weekend

Best prices currently England 2.74 and Wales 5.8, so the market has gone against placing the bet

I simply can't have Wales being 2/1 on Saturday though. It's a 4/5-5/4 type game.

Missed this originally, sorry Rich.

Shall I just bet Saturday's game now that the prices have moved for the 6N Outrights?

[TightEnd]

Wales 2/1 Baldfried

the rationale for the outright six nations is there, but the margin in the pricing is skinnier now*, so leave

2/1*1/5*8/13=4.82-1 (5.82)= the current Betfair price

[tikay]

Wales 2/1 Baldfried

the rationale for the outright six nations is there, but the margin in the pricing is skinnier now*, so leave

2/1*1/5*8/13=4.82-1 (5.82)= the current Betfair price

For how much?

[arbboy]

I spoke with tighty about this at the time and i wouldn't be in a rush to back wales at 5.8 now.  Would be more interested in going in heavier laying england around 2.7 than backing wales at 5.8 before commission.  I assume u can't get the 5/1 wales at boyles which is still fair commission free. Looks like the market has just adjusted correctly in line with tighty's analysis and there is less of an edge now in these two investments.

[TightEnd]

Wales 2/1 Baldfried

the rationale for the outright six nations is there, but the margin in the pricing is skinnier now*, so leave

2/1*1/5*8/13=4.82-1 (5.82)= the current Betfair price

For how much?

standard £40 or so is 1% of book

[tikay]

I spoke with tighty about this at the time and i wouldn't be in a rush to back wales at 5.8 now.  Would be more interested in going in heavier laying england around 2.7 than backing wales at 5.8 before commission.  I assume u can't get the 5/1 wales at boyles which is still fair commission free. Looks like the market has just adjusted correctly in line with tighty's analysis and there is less of an edge now in these two investments.

Thanks.

Think we've agreed to leave that one now, & just back Wales to beat England this weekend.

For the record, Boylesports seem to have, to all intents & purposes, closed my Account, though I still have a good few Ante Post bets in my Account.

EDIT - I just looked. A few duds in there, but a few nice live ones. I'd LOVE a couple of those to get home. Go Spieth, Vokes, Poshies & Suarez!



16 Oct 2013 15:53

140/139

 Championship 2013/2014 - Top Goalscorer

Vokes, Sam



e/w Single

20/1

20.00



Open

Pending



8 Oct 2013 14:27

128/127

 Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe 2014 - Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe

Treve



Single

4/1

100.00



Open

Pending



5 Oct 2013 18:35

124/123

 Johnstones Paint Trophy 2013/2014 - Outright Betting

Peterborough



Single

11/1

20.00



Open

Pending



24 Sep 2013 17:10

117/116

 1000 Guineas - 1000 Guineas

Radiator



e/w Single

25/1

40.00



Open

Pending



23 Sep 2013 22:07

116/115

 US Masters 2014 - Tournament Outright

Spieth, Jordan



e/w Single

66/1

40.00



Open

Pending



23 Sep 2013 16:04

115/114

 Premier League 2013/2014 - Top Goalscorer

Suarez, Luis



e/w Single

20/1

40.00



Open

Pending



16 Aug 2013 21:17

100/98

 Premier League 2013/2014 - Most Assists

Cazorla, Santiago



e/w Single

20/1

20.00



Open

Pending