Tips for Tikay

[exstream]

Paddy Power going 4/1 on HF. Text the stake "ENCHANCED HURRICANE FLY" to 51465. Bobs Worth and Sire De Grugy too! Both enhanced to 3/1.

Only via text

£50 max per horse

[exstream]

Last installment has drifted huge

[TightEnd]

Sportingbet UK ‏@Sportingbet_com

*CHELTENHAM COUNTDOWN* Fancy our Mullins Tuesday Tempter? Vautour, Champagne Fever & Hurricane Fly all to place on Day 1? 5/1 for today only


Just passing it on.

[Karabiner]

Last installment has drifted huge

It needs at least good to soft going to run and would prefer soft.

[moonandback]

bit pushed for time Arizona won again last night highlights and report here http://scores.espn.go.com/ncb/recap?gameId=400506091

[ripple11]

Last installment has drifted huge

It needs at least good to soft going to run and would prefer soft.

and forcast is dry all the week.

[Mark_Porter]

Daniel Negreanu announced on a podcast yesterday that he and Phil Ivey are going to be taking bracelet bet action for the WSOP again.

The bet this year is even money on either Negreanu or Ivey to win a bracelet. You can bet either side directly with Negreanu. It’s for WSOP Vegas only.

Interestingly last year PKR offered markets on Ivey to win a bracelet at 11/10 Yes, 8/13 No while Negreanu was 7/4 Yes, 4/11 No.

Negreanu has already said that he is expecting to play around 30 events. I expect Ivey will play at least that – probably more. He tends to grind the $1K’s which Negreanu is likely to skip this year. The ‘Championship’ events this year are back at 10K so there is an expectation that field sizes for these will be down – sub 100 players for some of these.

Which side do we like? Will be a good series long sweat either way. I like an even money bet on a bracelet win.

If we want to get on then the good news is it’s unlikely that were going to get maxed…

[exstream]

Mcilroy 10/1 with paddy power
£20 max or £10 ew
8.8 on betfair.

[arbboy]

Daniel Negreanu announced on a podcast yesterday that he and Phil Ivey are going to be taking bracelet bet action for the WSOP again.

The bet this year is even money on either Negreanu or Ivey to win a bracelet. You can bet either side directly with Negreanu. It’s for WSOP Vegas only.

Interestingly last year PKR offered markets on Ivey to win a bracelet at 11/10 Yes, 8/13 No while Negreanu was 7/4 Yes, 4/11 No.

Negreanu has already said that he is expecting to play around 30 events. I expect Ivey will play at least that – probably more. He tends to grind the $1K’s which Negreanu is likely to skip this year. The ‘Championship’ events this year are back at 10K so there is an expectation that field sizes for these will be down – sub 100 players for some of these.

Which side do we like? Will be a good series long sweat either way. I like an even money bet on a bracelet win.

If we want to get on then the good news is it’s unlikely that were going to get maxed…

If they both play 30+ events then surely evens they WILL win a bracelet is far too big given the fact they will play all the events with sub 200 runners in them.  IF the $1m one drop counts as well then surely they cant be much bigger than 20/1 to win that given last time it was $1m there was only 46 runners 2 years ago.  If we assume that to be the case then thats 10% likelyhood of a bracelet from just that event alone.  If you assume there are 10 events with less than 200 runners which they will prob be 50/1 for each then thats another 4% per event so that another 40%.  So that makes them even money (50%) just for those events in total before considering all the other bigger field events they can play.  Not sure exactly how much value it is maths wise but yes def looks the side to be on.

[Doobs]

Daniel Negreanu announced on a podcast yesterday that he and Phil Ivey are going to be taking bracelet bet action for the WSOP again.

The bet this year is even money on either Negreanu or Ivey to win a bracelet. You can bet either side directly with Negreanu. It’s for WSOP Vegas only.

Interestingly last year PKR offered markets on Ivey to win a bracelet at 11/10 Yes, 8/13 No while Negreanu was 7/4 Yes, 4/11 No.

Negreanu has already said that he is expecting to play around 30 events. I expect Ivey will play at least that – probably more. He tends to grind the $1K’s which Negreanu is likely to skip this year. The ‘Championship’ events this year are back at 10K so there is an expectation that field sizes for these will be down – sub 100 players for some of these.

Which side do we like? Will be a good series long sweat either way. I like an even money bet on a bracelet win.

If we want to get on then the good news is it’s unlikely that were going to get maxed…

If they both play 30+ events then surely evens they WILL win a bracelet is far too big given the fact they will play all the events with sub 200 runners in them.  IF the $1m one drop counts as well then surely they cant be much bigger than 20/1 to win that given last time it was $1m there was only 46 runners 2 years ago.  If we assume that to be the case then thats 10% likelyhood of a bracelet from just that event alone.  If you assume there are 10 events with less than 200 runners which they will prob be 50/1 for each then thats another 4% per event so that another 40%.  So that makes them even money (50%) just for those events in total before considering all the other bigger field events they can play.  Not sure exactly how much value it is maths wise but yes def looks the side to be on.

This maths grates a bit.  Chance of not winning in 10 events is 0.96^10 = .665; multiply by 0.9, makes 6/4 they don't win in these 11 events.  I think the maths is optimistic, as 4% feels high to me, and they aren't both going to play all 10 surely?   I might try something better later, but wouldn't be surprised if I ended up at around evens.  Ivey knows. 

I would prefer a better calc before commtting money on an even money shot over 4 months. 

[TightEnd]

Racing Opinion please

"Leading Irish owner Barry Connell has some star performers running at the 2014 Cheltenham Festival but has picked out Terry Biddlecombe National Hunt Chase hope Foxrock as his "nap of the meeting"

http://www.cheltenhamfestival.net/category/tuesdays-race-card--day-one/foxrock-cheltenham-festival-latest-201403060001/

He seems to fancy it above Our Conor, though that isn't a direct quote. Might be journalist spin

Is 9-2 Hills any value?

Is there any merit to this sort of piece? Or is it just standard pre-festvial puff?

[arbboy]

Daniel Negreanu announced on a podcast yesterday that he and Phil Ivey are going to be taking bracelet bet action for the WSOP again.

The bet this year is even money on either Negreanu or Ivey to win a bracelet. You can bet either side directly with Negreanu. It’s for WSOP Vegas only.

Interestingly last year PKR offered markets on Ivey to win a bracelet at 11/10 Yes, 8/13 No while Negreanu was 7/4 Yes, 4/11 No.

Negreanu has already said that he is expecting to play around 30 events. I expect Ivey will play at least that – probably more. He tends to grind the $1K’s which Negreanu is likely to skip this year. The ‘Championship’ events this year are back at 10K so there is an expectation that field sizes for these will be down – sub 100 players for some of these.

Which side do we like? Will be a good series long sweat either way. I like an even money bet on a bracelet win.

If we want to get on then the good news is it’s unlikely that were going to get maxed…

If they both play 30+ events then surely evens they WILL win a bracelet is far too big given the fact they will play all the events with sub 200 runners in them.  IF the $1m one drop counts as well then surely they cant be much bigger than 20/1 to win that given last time it was $1m there was only 46 runners 2 years ago.  If we assume that to be the case then thats 10% likelyhood of a bracelet from just that event alone.  If you assume there are 10 events with less than 200 runners which they will prob be 50/1 for each then thats another 4% per event so that another 40%.  So that makes them even money (50%) just for those events in total before considering all the other bigger field events they can play.  Not sure exactly how much value it is maths wise but yes def looks the side to be on.

This maths grates a bit.  Chance of not winning in 10 events is 0.96^10 = .665; multiply by 0.9, makes 6/4 they don't win in these 11 events.  I think the maths is optimistic, as 4% feels high to me, and they aren't both going to play all 10 surely?   I might try something better later, but wouldn't be surprised if I ended up at around evens.  Ivey knows. 

I would prefer a better calc before commtting money on an even money shot over 4 months. 

Just for clarity i wasn't recommending a bet on the yes just that if you were interested it would seem hard to make a case for no at the prices.  Plus my calcs massively depend on the $1m onedrop being part of the bet which i assume it is.

[Mark_Porter]

Daniel Negreanu announced on a podcast yesterday that he and Phil Ivey are going to be taking bracelet bet action for the WSOP again.

The bet this year is even money on either Negreanu or Ivey to win a bracelet. You can bet either side directly with Negreanu. It’s for WSOP Vegas only.

Interestingly last year PKR offered markets on Ivey to win a bracelet at 11/10 Yes, 8/13 No while Negreanu was 7/4 Yes, 4/11 No.

Negreanu has already said that he is expecting to play around 30 events. I expect Ivey will play at least that – probably more. He tends to grind the $1K’s which Negreanu is likely to skip this year. The ‘Championship’ events this year are back at 10K so there is an expectation that field sizes for these will be down – sub 100 players for some of these.

Which side do we like? Will be a good series long sweat either way. I like an even money bet on a bracelet win.

If we want to get on then the good news is it’s unlikely that were going to get maxed…

If they both play 30+ events then surely evens they WILL win a bracelet is far too big given the fact they will play all the events with sub 200 runners in them.  IF the $1m one drop counts as well then surely they cant be much bigger than 20/1 to win that given last time it was $1m there was only 46 runners 2 years ago.  If we assume that to be the case then thats 10% likelyhood of a bracelet from just that event alone.  If you assume there are 10 events with less than 200 runners which they will prob be 50/1 for each then thats another 4% per event so that another 40%.  So that makes them even money (50%) just for those events in total before considering all the other bigger field events they can play.  Not sure exactly how much value it is maths wise but yes def looks the side to be on.

This maths grates a bit.  Chance of not winning in 10 events is 0.96^10 = .665; multiply by 0.9, makes 6/4 they don't win in these 11 events.  I think the maths is optimistic, as 4% feels high to me, and they aren't both going to play all 10 surely?   I might try something better later, but wouldn't be surprised if I ended up at around evens.  Ivey knows. 

I would prefer a better calc before commtting money on an even money shot over 4 months. 

Just for clarity i wasn't recommending a bet on the yes just that if you were interested it would seem hard to make a case for no at the prices.  Plus my calcs massively depend on the $1m onedrop being part of the bet which i assume it is.

One drop is included.

There are 12 10K 'championship' events excluding the main. The Six Max is likely to be the only one of those that is going to draw a significantly larger number of runners. The rest are mostly specialist mixed games. You have then also got the One drop, $25K Mix Max, and $50K Players on top of the $10K's.

Obviously, they both play all the games. Barring deep runs elsewhere, both will play all of these. Extended reg for these bigger events will help too.

[TightEnd]

“We have to get back to competitiveness as soon as possible and we will get there much faster than people imagine, ” declared McLaren boss Ron Dennis this morning, breaking his silence for the first time since seizing back control of the company from Martin Whitmarsh.

“I believe we will win races this year, how many I don’t know and when I don’t know. Company was unfit and I said to them that if they match my commitment we will win. If they don’t match that they won’t be with the company.”

Dennis was on feisty form at press gathering at the McLaren Technical Centre in Woking, England, laying out his vision for the company and for the F1 team’s return to competitiveness after its worst season since 1980.

http://www.jamesallenonf1.com/2014/03/ron-dennis-breaks-his-silence-we-will-win-again-soon/

[exstream]

Big shu 5/1 with paddypower
Cross country chase