Tips for Tikay

[exstream]

First openly gay England and premier league player?
@JFergusonSPORT: First openly gay PL footballer who played for England last night will come out as gay on Sunday in a @SunSportNow @TheSunFootball exclusive

[claypole]

First openly gay England and premier league player?
@JFergusonSPORT: First openly gay PL footballer who played for England last night will come out as gay on Sunday in a @SunSportNow @TheSunFootball exclusive

Pretty massive if that's the case; will be ground breaking and reaction very interesting, Paddy betting on who it is?

[BigAdz]

I have sat fairly quietly the last few weeks and just watched as some stuff unfolds.

Got to say I think I fear TFT has lost its way a little.

The concept was, I believe, not just to make better punters, but share info on peoples specialist subjects, and I think we have drifted too far away from the latter in favour of blindly looking for best odds/special offers/money backs deals etc, that are slowly crushing Fred.

For example, over the weeks I am sure I have seen offers and bets placed on Hurricane Fly/MTOY/The New One and Our Conor, all in the same race.

Regardless of amounts and now matter how shrewd we are with the prices, It feels like we will out shrewd ourselves and make a small profit at best. Yet two people with proven horse race knowledge, at least, have come down with a strong enough opinion to opt for a single horse, and work to reduce any potential losses etc.

Sometimes I think we need to take a position in these markets and decide who we still think will win, bet accordingly, and then bet AROUND that, not just blindly max each offer and slowly erode our knowledge edge.

I can expand later but I think you get my gist and hope someone else has a view on this.

Adz

[arbboy]

I have sat fairly quietly the last few weeks and just watched as some stuff unfolds.

Got to say I think I fear TFT has lost its way a little.

The concept was, I believe, not just to make better punters, but share info on peoples specialist subjects, and I think we have drifted too far away from the latter in favour of blindly looking for best odds/special offers/money backs deals etc, that are slowly crushing Fred.

For example, over the weeks I am sure I have seen offers and bets placed on Hurricane Fly/MTOY/The New One and Our Conor, all in the same race.

Regardless of amounts and now matter how shrewd we are with the prices, It feels like we will out shrewd ourselves and make a small profit at best. Yet two people with proven horse race knowledge, at least, have come down with a strong enough opinion to opt for a single horse, and work to reduce any potential losses etc.

Sometimes I think we need to take a position in these markets and decide who we still think will win, bet accordingly, and then bet AROUND that, not just blindly max each offer and slowly erode our knowledge edge.

I can expand later but I think you get my gist and hope someone else has a view on this.

Adz

Understand this point to a certain extent and can see both sides of the argument.  Trouble is its like having a 6 sided dice and a 4 rolling in is offered at 6/1 by a firm.  You back it as its obviously the best bet in the race because the firm bet 4/1 each the other 5 outcomes and 6/1 the 4.  Then another firm goes 6/1 the 5 and 4/1 the other 5 outcomes and so on and so forth.  Eventually u have backed 4 of the 6 outcomes in the race all at 6/1 with 4 different firms (to use the CHurdle example Adz has used here) and it seems like we are no longer 'punting' in an old fashioned sense because we have backed more than half of the field.  However, in this example we still have a great bet as we have backed a truely priced 1/2 shot at 3/4 (i think my maths is correct here please feel free to correct me if i am wrong) so we have huge value much more than just backing one of the outcomes rather than all four.  Even if we were offered 7/1 on one of the outcomes of the throw instead of 4 lots of 6/1.  It's more boring/robotic but ultimately backing all 4 makes you more money long term and reduces your variance. Two things any professional gambler/investor would strive for. It's not sexy in the slightest but to those who like an old fashioned 'punt' and to be proved right that we back one horse in the race and 'we knew' etc etc when it wins aren't going to be fans of this approach.

I think the thread has different users from guys who bet for a living to those who are total rec punters who love learning about diff elements of sports betting and a load of semi serious punters inbetween with real specialist knowledge on certain sports.  Everyone has a different agenda for being on the thread and that's where these differences in opinions of how the thread should attack the game differ.  There isn't a right or wrong answer.

[mondatoo]

What price would people price up Costa Rica to beat England in the World Cup if both teams were already out ?

My point would be I think 10/1 England finish bottom of Group D seems a decent price to me.

One pessimistic punter.

[BigAdz]

Excellent reply arbboy.

Ty

[arbboy]

Excellent reply arbboy.

Ty

For pure entertainment i would love the thread to be like you seem to want it.  It would bring in loads more 'casuals' who like a punt to view it which would be good for the site.  Everyone wanting to land 'touches' etc on their areas of specialism etc etc.

I worry about posting 'boring' stats/%/numbers like i did in my last post because i don't want the thread to become boring/number crunching etc for regular blonde guys/newies who just want to come on here and punt and might be put off by joining because of the high level of discussion so many of the posters on here can debate to.  The level/quality of content on this thread for the last 2 years is off the charts for something being totally free to use for everyone.  All the fred regs will know this but this thread literally has at least 10/15 people on it given info/discussion/maths/knowledge which the average joe punter would never be able to access under normal circumstances.  This can lead to some thinking they are not suitably qualified to add things to the thread and/or worry about looking silly or making an error.  There must be people out there who lurk and don't post for this reason and might have some great info to add to the thread due to their location/individual sporting knowledge etc.  I think the more people we can encourage to post the more the thread will be how adz wants it to be.  However, the thread is first and foremost about winning money long term and the reality of winning money sports betting long term is grinding numbers/stats/% etc etc.  I suppose what this shows is that there is nothing remotely interesting about sports betting for a living.

I know i have always followed it for the pros stuff like redarmi/dubai/doobs/ed gas/badbeat for the stats and odds compiling views/analysis and debates for the last 2 years but i am reading/posting for different reasons to the vast majority of people who read and just love punting win/lose or draw and don't have to rely on making money every week to pay the bills.  These guys can bring loads of info to the thread in their own ways which believe me are useful to any pro gambler.  Ant's passion for Palace is amazing and his level of detail of his analysis of a certain team (Palace) and south london non league football is great and it is a very specialist area.  There are numerous other guys with other sports too numerous to name but you get my drift.



 

[arbboy]

20 guests on fred at 4am?? Really?  Don't think i have ever seen 20 guests during the peak times in the day??  Is this the time the bookies £25k a year 'lol traders' sign in to check up on the action?  Come and join and sign up and tell us what you know.  We give plenty back to you FOC and you won't even lay us a bet you spineless weasels.

Where did 16 of the 20 guests go 5 mins after i posted this?  Surely your £25k a year night shift trading roles were feet up at 345am once the lakers game had started and you could carry on reading and catching up on fred??  Nothing else to do once the lakers game had started surely? 

[BorntoBubble]

Would be good if fred could be locked so only members could view.

[arbboy]

would be much better if we could block all the ip's of every online bookmaker to the fred and nobody else

[arbboy]

or for blondes mods to review the ip addy's of these 20 guests at 4am to see how many were from Gib, Malta, Dublin, Warrington, Stoke, Wigan, Harrow, Leeds and Barking among others.

[BorntoBubble]

Im in warrington....

[Rubbish2407]

Slow Sports day to report on.

Remember Anna Fenninger who Fred was on in the Winter Olympics?



She won the Women's World Cup slalom in Sweden yesterday.

Jack Wilshire sidelined again.



Broken foot has him out for between 6-8 years now.

Moyes rallies the troops.



Good luck with that.

Wildcats named number one defense as March Madness starts.



It's all about the interior defense apparently?

A legend bows out at home.



Fred is on at 7/4 for it to be a scoring one.

Darts was close last night.



Is it too early to write this legend off?

Widnes make it three from three in Super League.



Anyone got any thoughts?

So you buy you're Clubs shirt and the badge is upside down.



Great reply from Wolves.

Celtics's Anthony Stokes assaults Elvis in Dublin nightclub?



By all accounts he left him "all shook up". Later.

[Teacake]

Meant to say, Jay Z was the celeb Celtic fan in yesterday's pics, Snoop Dogg also a fan btw, all the cool guys really 

[tikay]

Another great gallery by Mr Rubbish, thank you. I think I commentated on a hand of yours last night during Master Cash on the Show? I hope I was not too hard on you.

It's the fact that various Freddies do these sort of things that makes this place so special, so many of you try & contribute. It's how Forums SHOULD work. Tighty has always given us great galleries, ditto horsey, even Chompy, that means we need to do what we can to try & keep Fred a fun place to visit, "fun" is the key word, incidentally.

So, I'm going to try & answer the various points made during the discussion that has evolved in the last few days which began with a superb Post by redarmi. You'll be pleased to know that I'll have to keep it brief, as I just don't have the time to answer them at length. I do appreciate that folks care enough to make these (mostly) contructive Posts, so they deserve replies.   

One major problem is time. I simply don't have enough of it.  I thought things would calm down after UKPC, but, partly due to the stunning succes it was, my workload has actually increased, as there is a need to crack on with, perhaps....organising/negotiating the next one, & some collateral stuff that arose from it.  A dose of man flu, the Awards thing, UKPC stuff, & more Shows than I normally do, has all contributed to me not having enough time to devote to Fred. That has not helped. Cheltenham, of course, increases Fred activity many-fold.

Once I've answered the questions, I'll put some ideas out there to (hopefully) radically change how Fred works, & secure it's longevity. It does need a shake-up.