Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

£10 @ 3/1, Wm Hill, Faugheen, Neptune Novices Hurdle, 1.30.


12 Mar 14 / 08:37

Stake

1:30 Cheltenham – Faugheen @ Guaranteed Price (3/1)

- £10.00

O/0457483/0000860/F

BET PLACED

[Doobs]

Coral are 4/1 Sire De Grugy at 8.15 tomorrow, presumably £20 max.

Bump

Thanks Doobs, am poised to bet. Have opened the Coral website, logged in, logged out, logged in again (so it will accept a bet, what an absolute dog that website is), so I'm all set. I imagine they'll allow me £10.

Have to say, SDG seems on the drift everywhere. 4/1 is OK, but I'd not fancy it at 5/2.

No sign of the 4/1 SDG yet. Was it deffo advertised for 8.15?

Was 8.15 in my email.  Missed Faugheen. 

We going crazy on Sizing Europe Teeks?

[tikay]

Just a couple of Hills mobiles today, as the horses aren't so short

13.30 Faugheen 2/1
15.20 Sire De Grugy 11/4, I know it isn't the best course and going, but he'd be 5/4 on the soft at Kempton and not 11/4.

I am going to use my personal free bet on Sizing Europe in the 15.20.   I can see he is way too old to win this, but has one decent run this season, and this is a poor Champion.  He has also run a lot of very good races here if we ignore the Champion Hurdle. 12/1 is best price. 

Bumped to remind myself.

[Chompy]

Can't get into spreadhseet thingy.

Anyhoo, whatever we have on T'Blades to finish top six, please have the same on MK Dons @ 10-1 with PP. This is a rec bet.

Prices this morning are the same as last night, when MK Dons won and Poshies lost. It's almost like this market has slipped through the net.

[tikay]

Can't get into spreadhseet thingy.

Anyhoo, whatever we have on T'Blades to finish top six, please have the same on MK Dons @ 10-1 with PP. This is a rec bet.

Prices this morning are the same as last night, when MK Dons won and Poshies lost. It's almost like this market has slipped through the net.

Morning Mr Angry Bloke.

The Spready seems to be working fine here. Do you know how to use spreadsheets?

Fair play to you, how on earth do you spot these market anomolies? Don't you have a wheelie-bin to put out front on a Wednesday?

We have £10 @ 11/1, Sheff U Top Six.

Mr Power Restricted us to £4.37 on MK Dons, Top Six, which is beneath Headmaster Tighty's minimum bet size, but as it is effectively a saver on an existing bet, I've allowed it. Don't tell Tighty though.



English League 1 Top 6 Finish 2013-2014
12-03-2014 19:45
Top 6 Finish
MK Dons @ 10/1

 
Single: MK Dons @ 10/1
1 line at £4.37 per line
Total stake for this bet: £4.37
 Potential returns: £48.07
No: O/23146337/0000449
 

Total stake: £4.37
 Free bets voucher: £0.00
 Total Cost: £4.37


BET PLACED

[Chompy]

Spreaders is working now.

Get ready for max puntage later, if Sheff Utd fail to beat Carlisle and they still have the same prices up about Franchise FC.

PP wasted no time in cutting from 10-1 to 7-1 after your chunk though.

In reality, Poshies aren't even odds-on to hold sixth, let alone fours on. There's the small matter of MK away on Saturday, and then we have Rotherham (h) and Wolves away in coming weeks.

[hector62]

Morning Mr T.

I read some comments by Nadal on how his bad back affected his game. The gist was that it mainly affected his serve, and limited his variations. In short his service was predictable and on these slower hard courts it was far easier to break than usual.

Today Murray plays Raonic, and as we know Murray has a bad back too. In his first match he lost 3 service games in a row, and in his second match he got broken 6 times over the course of 3 sets. Raonic is a far better player than both of his previous opponents and I expect him to break Murray's serve at least as much as his previous opponents have. When your own serve is vulnerable you have to try even harder to break your opponents to stay in the game.

There is a market that we can capitalise on this and it is offered by Hills, and it is first set service breaks. I would suggest a big bet on 2 or over, but they don't price that up so we will have to go for 3, and 4 and over.

Suggest £10 on 3 breaks @ 6-1

             £5 on 4 and over @ 14-1.

I have never encountered this market before but my spider sense tells me that in this match they could actually be priced at     3-1 and 6-1.

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Loss on Month £328.81

Cheltenham Loss  £218

Outstanding bets £3861.57

FREE Bets 2

1x William Hll £25 use by 18th March

1x  Bet Victor (SprinterSacre) £50 use by ?

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web&pli=1#gid=22


Two winners at Cheltenham, Vautour and Quevega on a very tough day (two winning races out of seven) which saw an overall loss of £218

Jos Buttler was top scorer in Barbados at 8-1 for £80

Despite a 2-1 half time scoreline at London Rad, the second half was goal-less, so that was a £30 loss

Overall then yesterday, a loss of £168

--

Free Bet from Champagne Fever finishing second

We also have £50 on Sprinter Sacre which today becomes NRFB With BetVictor. Don't know how long you have to use it, so worth checking please

--


Last night, Leicester went 15 points clear of third with a facile victory at Barnsley. That will be a winner in the next few weeks

Ulloa scored for Brighton, clear as Brighton top scorer

Reading beat Leeds

Winnall scored for Scunthorpe, now 2/7

Tranmere lost at Brentford, now in the relegation zone

--

In the negatives

Watford lost at Doncaster

Portsmouth drew again at home

No goals for Nugent, Assom or Mooney, or Kee

[TightEnd]

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

[DungBeetle]

Morning Mr T.

I read some comments by Nadal on how his bad back affected his game. The gist was that it mainly affected his serve, and limited his variations. In short his service was predictable and on these slower hard courts it was far easier to break than usual.

Today Murray plays Raonic, and as we know Murray has a bad back too. In his first match he lost 3 service games in a row, and in his second match he got broken 6 times over the course of 3 sets. Raonic is a far better player than both of his previous opponents and I expect him to break Murray's serve at least as much as his previous opponents have. When your own serve is vulnerable you have to try even harder to break your opponents to stay in the game.

There is a market that we can capitalise on this and it is offered by Hills, and it is first set service breaks. I would suggest a big bet on 2 or over, but they don't price that up so we will have to go for 3, and 4 and over.

Suggest £10 on 3 breaks @ 6-1

             £5 on 4 and over @ 14-1.

I have never encountered this market before but my spider sense tells me that in this match they could actually be priced at     3-1 and 6-1.

Did Murray not have a back operation at the end of last season to correct this back problem?

[Doobs]

Just a couple of Hills mobiles today, as the horses aren't so short

13.30 Faugheen 2/1
15.20 Sire De Grugy 11/4, I know it isn't the best course and going, but he'd be 5/4 on the soft at Kempton and not 11/4.

I am going to use my personal free bet on Sizing Europe in the 15.20.   I can see he is way too old to win this, but has one decent run this season, and this is a poor Champion.  He has also run a lot of very good races here if we ignore the Champion Hurdle. 12/1 is best price. 

Faugheeen price has long gone.  Best is 11/8 now with Hills, but you don't get the offer if you used your mobile to get the 3/1.

Which day i difficult to get the bets on?  Was it today?

Bumped to remind myself.

[DungBeetle]

I know thread has a good price on Raonic at 2-1 for the Murray match, but there must be a point where Murray becomes value.  8/11 at the moment.

[TightEnd]

Third T20 tomorrow

Sorry short of time

Buttler into 13/2 - value disappearing

Bopara 10/1 Butfred...

Luke Wright 16/1 PadraigPowerslide

Likely to be batting 6 and 7 (early wickets against spin, gets numbers 4-7 in batting much earlier than current prices allow for)

Wright is humungously out of form but 16/1 is about twice the correct price here. Should be smashed into tikay, for a big hitter, who could well bat half the overs if he gets in

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/west-indies-v-england/t20-series/west-indies-v-england-%5B3rd-t20%5D/top-england-batsman

£10 each again

Quick please neither price should last

[TightEnd]

Betfred are "staggered" by the support for Faugheen in the Neptune Novices' Hurdle market this morning - all the 6/4 we mentioned earlier has now been taken with a general 11/8 left.

Betfred are among those at 11/8 (in from 7/4) and describe the six-year-old as "much the best backed horse of the day".

Their spokesman Andrew Griffiths said: "The confidence behind Faugheen is quite staggering.

"The market at Cheltenham is so strong that it takes serious money to move a horse from 7/4 to 11/8. It's fair to say our whole day revolves around him and we desperately want him beat."

[DungBeetle]

Also a chance that they might shuffle the batting order and have Wright at 3/4 as they try to find him a spot where he is comfortable.  He played well in the Big Bash so I think they'll want to get him in some kind of form ahead of the World T20.