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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 10759151 times)
tikay
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« Reply #71340 on: March 16, 2014, 12:52:22 PM »

There is often talk in Fred about how efficient the markets are for Premiership football but I am not sure it doesn't suffer from the same biases that other high profile sports like the NFL do ie. when a team gets beaten in embarrassing fashion or wins in flashy style on live TV they tend to be underrated and overrated in their next games.  Today we have one of the most high profile games of the year in Man Utd v Liverpool.  Man United just seem too big to me at slightly bigger than 6/4 on Betfair.  It is hard to articulate why I think that is other than that it seems unlikely in the long run that Man United are as bad as they have seemed and a Liverpool team that conceded two goals to Fulham and three goals to Swansea are probably not absolute world beaters.  I think United should be 5/4 and will be having a small bet.

Thanks Stu.

"Small bet" is relative, but we've had £25 @ 8/5 with Mr Coral, thank you.



Man Utd8/5Man Utd v Liverpool - 16/03/2014


Stake £25.00

Estimated Return:£65.00


Total Stake: £25.00

Potential Return: £65.00



BET PLACED
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« Reply #71341 on: March 16, 2014, 12:54:30 PM »

There are still 4 or 5 firms that have yet to price it. Why not monitor it and see if any go lower? Has sonour stolen your bet again?
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tikay
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« Reply #71342 on: March 16, 2014, 12:56:41 PM »


@ Tighty, & the T20 Bish Bash Bosh.

Wow, quite an effort you've made there, lovely Recommend, thank you, & it'll give us plenty of sweats, we hope. We already have 2 bets on, thanks to Mr Gherkin, of course.

Fair bit of putting on, clicking & clacking there, so it might take me a while, but I'll get started straight away. I'll take "best available" where necessary (the Satan one, for example) but I'll get what I can, & if the disparity is too marked, I'll swerve.

9 Bets in total, & some real mis-clickage opportunities. The Over-Under is 2.

On my way......
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« Reply #71343 on: March 16, 2014, 12:56:52 PM »

Ricciardo could eg disqualified from the Aussie Grand Prix, as his far exceeded the maximum fuel flow rate several times in the race.  It would be good for those that have Button and Bottas season long bets.
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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« Reply #71344 on: March 16, 2014, 12:58:33 PM »

There is often talk in Fred about how efficient the markets are for Premiership football but I am not sure it doesn't suffer from the same biases that other high profile sports like the NFL do ie. when a team gets beaten in embarrassing fashion or wins in flashy style on live TV they tend to be underrated and overrated in their next games.  Today we have one of the most high profile games of the year in Man Utd v Liverpool.  Man United just seem too big to me at slightly bigger than 6/4 on Betfair.  It is hard to articulate why I think that is other than that it seems unlikely in the long run that Man United are as bad as they have seemed and a Liverpool team that conceded two goals to Fulham and three goals to Swansea are probably not absolute world beaters.  I think United should be 5/4 and will be having a small bet.

Thanks Stu.

"Small bet" is relative, but we've had £25 @ 8/5 with Mr Coral, thank you.



Man Utd8/5Man Utd v Liverpool - 16/03/2014


Stake £25.00

Estimated Return:£65.00


Total Stake: £25.00

Potential Return: £65.00



BET PLACED

Bet size is fine I think.
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« Reply #71345 on: March 16, 2014, 12:59:23 PM »

Adam Rooney to score against his old club after his 6 goals in 8 games is top priced priced 7/4 http://www.oddschecker.com/football/scottish/league-cup/aberdeen-v-inverness/anytime-goalscorer

Ladcrooks go evens.

Sandy
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« Reply #71346 on: March 16, 2014, 01:00:03 PM »

Lewis Hamilton remains the Formula One world title favourite despite failing to finish the season-opening Australian Grand Prix.

The British star, who usurped reigning champion Sebastian Vettel as favourite during pre-season testing, failed to finish after his Mercedes suffered an engine malfunction.

He was pushed out to 9/4 in the title betting by Sky Bet, Paddy Power and BetVictor following the race, one which was won by his team-mate Nico Rosberg.

Rosberg duly shortened, although he stayed behind Hamilton in the market with the best price available being a general 11/4.

Hamilton was confident that reliability would improve, saying: "We will recover from this. It's just a small hiccup, there's a long way to go."

However, Rosberg was more than happy with his set-up, adding: "I'm over the moon right now and to have such an amazing Silver Arrow, this thing was unbelievably quick and the reliability was good.

"For now all our hard work has paid off, but we still have to improve because our competitors are not going to go to sleep.''

Vettel also didn't finish but he was trimmed in places after the Red Bull showed improvement from its miserable time in testing with team-mate Daniel Ricciardo finishing second.

Ladbrokes were still prepared to offer 4/1 about the four-time champion though.

Ferrari's Fernando Alonso comes next at 10/1 with McLaren new-boy Kevin Magnussen cut to 20s after crossing the line in third place.

The layers seem keen to keep Mercedes on side for the early weeks of the season with Hamilton and Rosberg chalked up as the 2/1 joint favourites by Sky Bet and Betfred for the next race, the Malaysian Grand Prix which takes place on March 30.

In the constructors' title betting, it's Mercedes 8/13, Red Bull 10/3 following the opening skirmishes in Melbourne.


Our positions

Formula1   F1 WDC   Button 12/1   20
Formula1   Constructors Championship   Mercedes   6/5   25
Formula1   F1 Drivers Champion   Hamilton   3/1   30
Formula1   World Drivers Championship   Bottas   50/1   20   £10 EW @ 50/1, one fifth, 1,2,3

We are nicely onside Mercedes, the mclaren looked reliable and Bottas quick

The Red Bull is the conundrum. Clearly a brilliant chassis, quick in wet and dry but about a second off the Mercedes due to the power from the merc relative to the renault. You would expect them to sort their power train issues out, and once they do Vettel at 4-1 might be a thing of the past

I am looking for Mercedes to win in Malaysia, preferably Vettel to have a problem or two, get 5-1 and get Vettel onside.
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tikay
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« Reply #71347 on: March 16, 2014, 01:00:08 PM »

There are still 4 or 5 firms that have yet to price it. Why not monitor it and see if any go lower? Has sonour stolen your bet again?

She always beats me, she's in like a shot on your stuff. Bang out of order. She had a few days off this week though, part-timer, see? Poor Pete does all the work, & she is getting Breakfast in bed, I reckon.

OK, I'll wait a while & see if anyone comes in with a better line. Currently it is 53.5 or higher everywhere. Needs to be soon, though, as I have an appointment upstairs.

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-league/super-league/castleford-v-hull/total-points
« Last Edit: March 16, 2014, 01:06:19 PM by tikay » Logged

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« Reply #71348 on: March 16, 2014, 01:02:41 PM »

Adam Rooney to score against his old club after his 6 goals in 8 games is top priced priced 7/4 http://www.oddschecker.com/football/scottish/league-cup/aberdeen-v-inverness/anytime-goalscorer

Ladcrooks go evens.

Sandy

Thanks Sandy, we've had £20 @ 7/4 with BetFred.


Bet placed, its reference is 304/330

Bet ref: 304/330 £20.00 Single


Aberdeen v Inverness Caledonian Thistle
Score Anytime
 Rooney, Adam 7/4 
Total stake
£ 20.00

Estimated return
£ 55.00


Full estimated return
£ 55.00



BET PLACED
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« Reply #71349 on: March 16, 2014, 01:07:55 PM »

Hate when I am in the opposite side of the coin from the pros on here who's opinions I value but I thought Liverpool were too big at 2/1.  

This Man U team is average at best, still plays with a lack of confidence and the market is priced up on past victories over Liverpool.  

I think the key to this game will be middle to front and back to middle and Liverpool win this match bet for me all day long.  I expect Gerrard, Allen and Henderson to bully United in the middle.  The one weak link for me in the Liverpool side is Johnson playing left back.  He''s far better on the right.  

Going forward I think leaving Coutinho out (who is a class act) will benefit Liverpool.  He's some times too ponderous and not direct enough imo.  Think the English game is a bit fast for him.  

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« Reply #71350 on: March 16, 2014, 01:10:26 PM »

Hate when I am in the opposite side of the coin from the pros on here who's opinions I value but I thought Liverpool were too big at 2/1.  

This Man U team is average at best, still plays with a lack of confidence and the market is priced up on past victories over Liverpool.  

I think the key to this game will be middle to front and back to middle and Liverpool win this match bet for me all day long.  I expect Gerrard, Allen and Henderson to bully United in the middle.  The one weak link for me in the Liverpool side is Johnson playing left back.  He''s far better on the right.  

Going forward I think leaving Coutinho out (who is a class act) will benefit Liverpool.  He's some times too ponderous and not direct enough imo.  Think the English game is a bit fast for him.  



Lets just agree we dont want a draw!!!!
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« Reply #71351 on: March 16, 2014, 01:16:57 PM »

Riccardo excluded :-)

Move Button up, Move Bottas up

McLaren lead the constructors with 27 to Mercedes 25, Red Bull 0

Ladbrokes will offer you 9/1 1/3 the odds top 2 if you fancy their reliability will play all season and Red Bull might not sort the issues  that fast....

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« Reply #71352 on: March 16, 2014, 01:18:15 PM »


@ Tighty, & the T20 Bish Bash Bosh.

Wow, quite an effort you've made there, lovely Recommend, thank you, & it'll give us plenty of sweats, we hope. We already have 2 bets on, thanks to Mr Gherkin, of course.

Fair bit of putting on, clicking & clacking there, so it might take me a while, but I'll get started straight away. I'll take "best available" where necessary (the Satan one, for example) but I'll get what I can, & if the disparity is too marked, I'll swerve.

9 Bets in total, & some real mis-clickage opportunities. The Over-Under is 2.

On my way......

Tikay,

The one is a stand out price and I'll be in the shop shortly. Let me know what you would like.
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« Reply #71353 on: March 16, 2014, 01:22:08 PM »

Hate when I am in the opposite side of the coin from the pros on here who's opinions I value but I thought Liverpool were too big at 2/1.  

This Man U team is average at best, still plays with a lack of confidence and the market is priced up on past victories over Liverpool.  

I think the key to this game will be middle to front and back to middle and Liverpool win this match bet for me all day long.  I expect Gerrard, Allen and Henderson to bully United in the middle.  The one weak link for me in the Liverpool side is Johnson playing left back.  He''s far better on the right.  

Going forward I think leaving Coutinho out (who is a class act) will benefit Liverpool.  He's some times too ponderous and not direct enough imo.  Think the English game is a bit fast for him.  



Lets just agree we dont want a draw!!!!

Ha nut worse result.  

Another bet I like in this game is Evra to be carded at just over 7/2 on betfair.  I think he will be up against it today and he  is a player Liverpool will try and expose and with the way Suarez and Sturridge drop off wide often as well he wil be up against it, I also find him quite a petulent player.  I don't have any stats to back this up but I have  a memory of him picking up silly booking in big games and in particular against the likes of Liverpool/Chelsea and Arsenal.  

Thoughts?  Might be worth a score.  
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« Reply #71354 on: March 16, 2014, 01:24:17 PM »

Mr T I have checked the sites of the other bookies and I don't think they will price it up now. Take the 53.5 but go for a nittier £18.
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