Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

The MLB starts next week

Click to see full-size image.

Singhee hasn't been on for ages, unfortunately

I have asked redarmi, who gave me/us such fun on the Tampa Bay rays last season top pop his thoughts up, I hope he will

I think Singhee was a season too early on the Kansas City Royals, on whom he recommended a bet last season




I was researching away late one evening and asked a US journalist friend about the Royals

His reply was

"“Watch out for Royals. Great ‘pen, some inning-eating starters and a couple of cornerstones in Sal Perez and (Eric) Hosmer.”

basically to go deep ionto the MLB post season you need

- starting pitching (5 starters rotate, and you need depth)
- bullpen pitching (to close games out)
- defense (particularly in the infield)
- hitting (obviously)

His contention was the Royals have all four, having been a bit light on the first two at times last season


They had been built for the long haul http://kansascity.royals.mlb.com/news/article/kc/phil-rogers-royals-have-been-built-to-win-over-long-haul?ymd=20140312&content_id=69180572&vkey=news_kc because traditionally they have traded away talent (too expensive to pay) for draft picks and now one of the brightest farm systems with those draft picks are hitting the major leagues

eg

They have a candidate for rookie of the year in RHP Ventura, who is recorded in recent pre-season games at 102mph pitches

http://kansascity.royals.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20140312&content_id=69180828&notebook_id=69194422&vkey=notebook_kc&c_id=kc


The prices in this are skewed, much like the Broncos/Chiefs NFL bet we had (one short favourite, a couple of improving franchises), because the Tigers who went deep in the 2013 post season, are 4/9 favourites

(baseball is a game with no salary cap, so you can spend as your owner wishes, with the biggest tv markets giving the biggest budgets. so teams like the yankees, the texas, LA and major city teams tend to hoard the talent. this skews betting prices, sometimes correctly but sometimes not. eg oakland and moneyball, or smaller market teams who outperform their budget. the aim is to try to find these for 2014)

I really like unfashionable teams that are improving fast, mainly in the NFL but also other sports and often in UK betting markets wherwe you might be ahead of the curve on US Sports

So

the division

http://www.oddschecker.com/baseball/mlb/american-league-central/winner

I support the White Sox and they and the twins are a couple of years way. I think the Royals can challenge the Tigers at a value price in what isn't a five horse race

Recommend  £20 at 11-2 William Hill AL Central Kansas City Royals


the American League

the big guns are short here..therein lies the opportunity

Recommend £10 at 18-1 William Hill American league Kansas City Royals

Click to see full-size image.

[Nico29]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/the_daily_politics/4824906.stm

Interesting stuff!

[BigAdz]

Completely understand Tal.

I must confess to finding amusing that several people who probably listen to one political speech a year can make a value statement on a word being used from 16-1 to 8-1. Hardly a bunch of parliamentry experts are we?!

Fred has developed a habit of accepting almost every bet offered these days. When I first joined around two plus, years ago, I had numerous bets knocked back, as did several others, rightly or wrongly, but Fred was profitable as a result then. At the moment he is almost in financial freefall and very little is changing to stop the rot. Not my money, admittedly, and I can choose the stuff I follow, but my  its my favourite read on the net, so I do feel a touch of ownership.

I will be the first to admit I have yet to make a positive contribution this year with none of my few bets winning, but all have been well researched, and I would put them all up again. They ain't just guesses.

I would suggest that a few conclusions can be drawn from that.

No doubt I might have put a few noses out of joint, so excuse me, no harm intended.  


I also say this as one of a few people that backed a 100-1 jobbie in the speech last year .....but I keep my degen stuff off Fred!

[horseplayer]

would be happy backing twitter at 16/1 again and again 8/1 no thanks but thats been discussed already

[redarmi]

Anyone can see that 'collateral form though' and in the end it's still just one person's view against another's.

The budget has lots of form itself -not sure when it first started-have tried googling to no avail.

However, it is easy to go through previous years and to read speeches made by previous Chancellors and see patterns.

To discount betting on something because you might consider it frivolous is imo short sighted.

Some of the greatest edges are found in novelty markets where those setting the market can be less informed than they should be.

There is clearly a lot of value in some of these markets but the problem is that you are viewing them in a vacuum.  In terms of EV some of these bets are great.  Backing an 8/1 shot at 16/1 gives you an almost unheard of EV of 188.87 but there are two problems with this approach.  The first is that you can only bet them for a score, and only then if the firm in question views you as an absolute ice cream so your actual earn from it is going to be about 16 quid which is somewhat respectable however it ignores the fact metagame fact that if you bet something on one of these markets that either a) wins or b) shortens significantly then you are going to burn that outlet.  Even if you bet it in a shop they are going to remember it and you won't be able to use that shop significantly in the future.  Added to this I would guess that the number of posters on here that can get a score on these markets is in the single figures and probably less than the number of odds compilers that are monitoring Fred to be alerted to their ricks.  Obviously not saying that they aren't value or not to post them because they are interesting but if your goal is profit rather than margin maximisation I think they are a bit counterproductive.

[Nico29]

Anyone can see that 'collateral form though' and in the end it's still just one person's view against another's.

The budget has lots of form itself -not sure when it first started-have tried googling to no avail.

However, it is easy to go through previous years and to read speeches made by previous Chancellors and see patterns.

To discount betting on something because you might consider it frivolous is imo short sighted.

Some of the greatest edges are found in novelty markets where those setting the market can be less informed than they should be.

There is clearly a lot of value in some of these markets but the problem is that you are viewing them in a vacuum.  In terms of EV some of these bets are great.  Backing an 8/1 shot at 16/1 gives you an almost unheard of EV of 188.87 but there are two problems with this approach.  The first is that you can only bet them for a score, and only then if the firm in question views you as an absolute ice cream so your actual earn from it is going to be about 16 quid which is somewhat respectable however it ignores the fact metagame fact that if you bet something on one of these markets that either a) wins or b) shortens significantly then you are going to burn that outlet.  Even if you bet it in a shop they are going to remember it and you won't be able to use that shop significantly in the future.  Added to this I would guess that the number of posters on here that can get a score on these markets is in the single figures and probably less than the number of odds compilers that are monitoring Fred to be alerted to their ricks.  Obviously not saying that they aren't value or not to post them because they are interesting but if your goal is profit rather than margin maximisation I think they are a bit counterproductive.

Most shops nowadays wouldn't remember you if you ran in naked and sang the national anthem.

If you played the fbot's they might though....

I'm happy to be labelled an ice cream if i'm allowed a score on by laddies on that market.

I'm restricted on everything else more or less-markets I prob know less about too.

I had got on and thought i'd share my views on the bet.

Will go back to lurking in the shadows again.

[TightEnd]

Anyone can see that 'collateral form though' and in the end it's still just one person's view against another's.

The budget has lots of form itself -not sure when it first started-have tried googling to no avail.

However, it is easy to go through previous years and to read speeches made by previous Chancellors and see patterns.

To discount betting on something because you might consider it frivolous is imo short sighted.

Some of the greatest edges are found in novelty markets where those setting the market can be less informed than they should be.

There is clearly a lot of value in some of these markets but the problem is that you are viewing them in a vacuum.  In terms of EV some of these bets are great.  Backing an 8/1 shot at 16/1 gives you an almost unheard of EV of 188.87 but there are two problems with this approach.  The first is that you can only bet them for a score, and only then if the firm in question views you as an absolute ice cream so your actual earn from it is going to be about 16 quid which is somewhat respectable however it ignores the fact metagame fact that if you bet something on one of these markets that either a) wins or b) shortens significantly then you are going to burn that outlet.  Even if you bet it in a shop they are going to remember it and you won't be able to use that shop significantly in the future.  Added to this I would guess that the number of posters on here that can get a score on these markets is in the single figures and probably less than the number of odds compilers that are monitoring Fred to be alerted to their ricks.  Obviously not saying that they aren't value or not to post them because they are interesting but if your goal is profit rather than margin maximisation I think they are a bit counterproductive.

Most shops nowadays wouldn't remember you if you ran in naked and sang the national anthem.

If you played the fbot's they might though....

I'm happy to be labelled an ice cream if i'm allowed a score on by laddies on that market.

I'm restricted on everything else more or less-markets I prob know less about too.

I had got on and thought i'd share my views on the bet.

Will go back to lurking in the shadows again.

there's no problem Dominic, keep posting stuff up.

[DungBeetle]

What's going on here - England are making a decent fist of chasing a challenging target in a T20.

[BigAdz]

Anyone can see that 'collateral form though' and in the end it's still just one person's view against another's.

The budget has lots of form itself -not sure when it first started-have tried googling to no avail.

However, it is easy to go through previous years and to read speeches made by previous Chancellors and see patterns.

To discount betting on something because you might consider it frivolous is imo short sighted.

Some of the greatest edges are found in novelty markets where those setting the market can be less informed than they should be.

There is clearly a lot of value in some of these markets but the problem is that you are viewing them in a vacuum.  In terms of EV some of these bets are great.  Backing an 8/1 shot at 16/1 gives you an almost unheard of EV of 188.87 but there are two problems with this approach.  The first is that you can only bet them for a score, and only then if the firm in question views you as an absolute ice cream so your actual earn from it is going to be about 16 quid which is somewhat respectable however it ignores the fact metagame fact that if you bet something on one of these markets that either a) wins or b) shortens significantly then you are going to burn that outlet.  Even if you bet it in a shop they are going to remember it and you won't be able to use that shop significantly in the future.  Added to this I would guess that the number of posters on here that can get a score on these markets is in the single figures and probably less than the number of odds compilers that are monitoring Fred to be alerted to their ricks.  Obviously not saying that they aren't value or not to post them because they are interesting but if your goal is profit rather than margin maximisation I think they are a bit counterproductive.

Most shops nowadays wouldn't remember you if you ran in naked and sang the national anthem.

If you played the fbot's they might though....

I'm happy to be labelled an ice cream if i'm allowed a score on by laddies on that market.

I'm restricted on everything else more or less-markets I prob know less about too.

I had got on and thought i'd share my views on the bet.

Will go back to lurking in the shadows again.

That's grown up.

Everyone else has sided with you but you choose to act like a child because i voiced an opinion.

Oh dear

[redarmi]

Anyone can see that 'collateral form though' and in the end it's still just one person's view against another's.

The budget has lots of form itself -not sure when it first started-have tried googling to no avail.

However, it is easy to go through previous years and to read speeches made by previous Chancellors and see patterns.

To discount betting on something because you might consider it frivolous is imo short sighted.

Some of the greatest edges are found in novelty markets where those setting the market can be less informed than they should be.

There is clearly a lot of value in some of these markets but the problem is that you are viewing them in a vacuum.  In terms of EV some of these bets are great.  Backing an 8/1 shot at 16/1 gives you an almost unheard of EV of 188.87 but there are two problems with this approach.  The first is that you can only bet them for a score, and only then if the firm in question views you as an absolute ice cream so your actual earn from it is going to be about 16 quid which is somewhat respectable however it ignores the fact metagame fact that if you bet something on one of these markets that either a) wins or b) shortens significantly then you are going to burn that outlet.  Even if you bet it in a shop they are going to remember it and you won't be able to use that shop significantly in the future.  Added to this I would guess that the number of posters on here that can get a score on these markets is in the single figures and probably less than the number of odds compilers that are monitoring Fred to be alerted to their ricks.  Obviously not saying that they aren't value or not to post them because they are interesting but if your goal is profit rather than margin maximisation I think they are a bit counterproductive.

Most shops nowadays wouldn't remember you if you ran in naked and sang the national anthem.

If you played the fbot's they might though....

I'm happy to be labelled an ice cream if i'm allowed a score on by laddies on that market.

I'm restricted on everything else more or less-markets I prob know less about too.

I had got on and thought i'd share my views on the bet.

Will go back to lurking in the shadows again.

Somewhat overly touchy response imo.  I never suggested you were an ice cream and indeed suggested that the recommended bet had incredible EV but had potentially bad implications fo ryour overall ability to make profits which, in my experience, is a bad thing.

[sonour]

Anyone can see that 'collateral form though' and in the end it's still just one person's view against another's.

The budget has lots of form itself -not sure when it first started-have tried googling to no avail.

However, it is easy to go through previous years and to read speeches made by previous Chancellors and see patterns.

To discount betting on something because you might consider it frivolous is imo short sighted.

Some of the greatest edges are found in novelty markets where those setting the market can be less informed than they should be.

There is clearly a lot of value in some of these markets but the problem is that you are viewing them in a vacuum.  In terms of EV some of these bets are great.  Backing an 8/1 shot at 16/1 gives you an almost unheard of EV of 188.87 but there are two problems with this approach.  The first is that you can only bet them for a score, and only then if the firm in question views you as an absolute ice cream so your actual earn from it is going to be about 16 quid which is somewhat respectable however it ignores the fact metagame fact that if you bet something on one of these markets that either a) wins or b) shortens significantly then you are going to burn that outlet.  Even if you bet it in a shop they are going to remember it and you won't be able to use that shop significantly in the future.  Added to this I would guess that the number of posters on here that can get a score on these markets is in the single figures and probably less than the number of odds compilers that are monitoring Fred to be alerted to their ricks.  Obviously not saying that they aren't value or not to post them because they are interesting but if your goal is profit rather than margin maximisation I think they are a bit counterproductive.

Most shops nowadays wouldn't remember you if you ran in naked and sang the national anthem.

If you played the fbot's they might though....

I'm happy to be labelled an ice cream if i'm allowed a score on by laddies on that market.

I'm restricted on everything else more or less-markets I prob know less about too.

I had got on and thought i'd share my views on the bet.

Will go back to lurking in the shadows again.

Keep posting please.

[Tal]

Aaron is not having the best day in the field. One of those where he keeps getting moved and the ball keeps finding him

[tikay]

Yikes.

My mini-post about betting on trivia markets was intended merely in jest. I did not expect a fall-out over it.

Dom, keep putting that sort of stuff up, please.

I'd have got on @ 16/1, but not at 8/1, as you concurred.

Weather's been a lot better today though, don't you think?

[Nico29]

Redarmi I apologise if you felt I overreacted.

You put your points well, I think in this case personally it's perhaps over thinking a twenty quid 16-1 fancy-but I def get your overall points and I always respect your opinion. Love your horse angle later for example.


Bigadz is right in that it was mainly directed at him.

Yep probs looks like toys from pram throwing from me i'll agree.

I just feel Bigadz makes things too personal and has a particular way of trolling.

Was/and am going to leave it at that as I do not want to de-rail thread anymore nor to get in a shouting match.

Have a good day everybody.

[BigAdz]

Redarmi I apologise if you felt I overreacted.

You put your points well, I think in this case personally it's perhaps over thinking a twenty quid 16-1 fancy-but I def get your overall points and I always respect your opinion. Love your horse angle later for example.


Bigadz is right in that it was mainly directed at him.

Yep probs looks like toys from pram throwing from me i'll agree.

I just feel Bigadz makes things too personal and has a particular way of trolling.

Was/and am going to leave it at that as I do not want to de-rail thread anymore nor to get in a shouting match.

Have a good day everybody.

Blimey. Having an opinion is called trolling now is it?
 
LOL. I also dont know what was personal about it. I know nothing about you at all, and made no attempt to have a pop at you, the post was a general one about the losses incurred by Fred recently and your bet was one I felt was one. Subsequent posts would suggest I was wrong. I accept others views and will continue to post.

I presume you are under 25?