Tips for Tikay

[nirvana]

I think all Adz is pointing out is something that is transparently true. At times this is a serious and educational punting thread and people agonise over 0.5% of value and at other times it splashes around punting for sweats & giggles before it regains its composure.

I quite like that it does both tbh as it makes it more enjoyable and the bottom line for the spreadsheet is something I'm ambivalent about. Having said that, I do love the slight smug edge to the profitable months and unsurprisingly perhaps, get my ribs tickled quite pleasingly during the unprofitable ones

[Marky147]

The Grand National is a bit of a funny one for me.  Traditionally the best way to approach it was to look to bet in advance because everything just got shortened every day until until raceday especially if it was a popular trainer or jockey and I would expect that to happen to a degree still so the bet to lay is probably fine but the problem with betting so far in advance now is that with all the offers you might just miss a chunk of EV with extra places, money back if seconds etc.  It honestly wouldn't surprise me to see a firm pay 6 places this year and be 2 points bigger on the jolly.

Just noticed that BMU are playing 6 places.

Pretty much bottom price every horse because of paying 6 places and no NRNB.  Would imagine if we are going to bet Tidal Bay 365 or bf sportsbook are the firms with NRNB and 5 places paid. 

BMU are NRFB

[BigAdz]

Tidal Bay

I still think he has his own ideas, but you only have to listen to any racing programme and commentators always refer to him as an old favourite, and the money comes for him in most events.

Evidence suggests that the further he goes the more chance he has of getting involved and you know Nicholls has aimed him at the race.

I managed to get plenty of accounts to take the 25s Laddies offered a few weeks ago, but the closer it gets and no horse firing the public imagination after Cheltenham, it could be left to TB to be the one. Even the 16s still looks big to me. The front of the market will firm up for sure and with NRNB/FB first 5/6 looks a cracker to back elsewhere and lay back at /9s for a free run. I am heavily involved in another horse that I fancy to win, but for a trade and also a chance to win, this horse fits the bill.

Just cant see it not going off a lot shorter.

I did point all this out earlier.

God, I don't know why I bother. blah blah blah..stomp stomp

[Marky147]

Tidal Bay

I still think he has his own ideas, but you only have to listen to any racing programme and commentators always refer to him as an old favourite, and the money comes for him in most events.

Evidence suggests that the further he goes the more chance he has of getting involved and you know Nicholls has aimed him at the race.

I managed to get plenty of accounts to take the 25s Laddies offered a few weeks ago, but the closer it gets and no horse firing the public imagination after Cheltenham, it could be left to TB to be the one. Even the 16s still looks big to me. The front of the market will firm up for sure and with NRNB/FB first 5/6 looks a cracker to back elsewhere and lay back at /9s for a free run. I am heavily involved in another horse that I fancy to win, but for a trade and also a chance to win, this horse fits the bill.

Just cant see it not going off a lot shorter.

I did point all this out earlier.

God, I don't know why I bother. blah blah blah..stomp stomp

Go and change your tampon, there's a good lad

[Junior Senior]

The MLB starts next week

Click to see full-size image.

Singhee hasn't been on for ages, unfortunately

I have asked redarmi, who gave me/us such fun on the Tampa Bay rays last season top pop his thoughts up, I hope he will

I think Singhee was a season too early on the Kansas City Royals, on whom he recommended a bet last season




I was researching away late one evening and asked a US journalist friend about the Royals

His reply was

"“Watch out for Royals. Great ‘pen, some inning-eating starters and a couple of cornerstones in Sal Perez and (Eric) Hosmer.”

basically to go deep ionto the MLB post season you need

- starting pitching (5 starters rotate, and you need depth)
- bullpen pitching (to close games out)
- defense (particularly in the infield)
- hitting (obviously)

His contention was the Royals have all four, having been a bit light on the first two at times last season


They had been built for the long haul http://kansascity.royals.mlb.com/news/article/kc/phil-rogers-royals-have-been-built-to-win-over-long-haul?ymd=20140312&content_id=69180572&vkey=news_kc because traditionally they have traded away talent (too expensive to pay) for draft picks and now one of the brightest farm systems with those draft picks are hitting the major leagues

eg

They have a candidate for rookie of the year in RHP Ventura, who is recorded in recent pre-season games at 102mph pitches

http://kansascity.royals.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20140312&content_id=69180828&notebook_id=69194422&vkey=notebook_kc&c_id=kc


The prices in this are skewed, much like the Broncos/Chiefs NFL bet we had (one short favourite, a couple of improving franchises), because the Tigers who went deep in the 2013 post season, are 4/9 favourites

(baseball is a game with no salary cap, so you can spend as your owner wishes, with the biggest tv markets giving the biggest budgets. so teams like the yankees, the texas, LA and major city teams tend to hoard the talent. this skews betting prices, sometimes correctly but sometimes not. eg oakland and moneyball, or smaller market teams who outperform their budget. the aim is to try to find these for 2014)

I really like unfashionable teams that are improving fast, mainly in the NFL but also other sports and often in UK betting markets wherwe you might be ahead of the curve on US Sports

So

the division

http://www.oddschecker.com/baseball/mlb/american-league-central/winner

I support the White Sox and they and the twins are a couple of years way. I think the Royals can challenge the Tigers at a value price in what isn't a five horse race

Recommend  £20 at 11-2 William Hill AL Central Kansas City Royals


the American League

the big guns are short here..therein lies the opportunity

Recommend £10 at 18-1 William Hill American league Kansas City Royals

Click to see full-size image.

15, 3, 9, 18, 1, 4, 17, 6, 8, 2, 5, 7, 14, 12, 8, 10, 13, 11, 16.

[JaffaCake]

Paddy's are £100 max free bet back if Man U don't go through on the usual markets. RVP at 7/2 first goal is best on high street, with the concession looks a nice bet to me?

[Mark_Porter]

Three weeks to go until the Masters Golf at Augusta. From memory, Fred was in for chunks last year and got in a right pickle.

This year’s Masters is set to be one of the largest fields in Masters history. There are currently 94 registered players but, of course, we can put a line through many of those that are just not capable of winning this event.

There are some common thoughts about the key attributes needed to do well. Those include:-

- Big Hitter
- Comfortable with the woods and long irons off the floor
- Must be able to draw the ball hard
- Putting crucial
- High ball flight useful

By using the above criteria and looking through form I have been trying to work through crossing out as many as possible that don’t fit the profile. Not lots jumping off the page yet but one early rec:-

Gary Woodland - 100/1EW with BV. 5 places.

Click to see full-size image.

Having listed the criteria, Woodland doesn't exactly fit that but I do fancy him. Yes - he hits the ball very long but the make or break will be with the flat stick and his short game can get a bit ropey hence the big price. He also hits a natural fade but has been working hard on hitting the draw in the last couple of years. I am hoping the stars align for him this week at the Arnold Palmer and I expect the 100/1 for the Masters will shorten. A small tickle each way looks good.

Anyone got any ante post thoughts?

[redarmi]

Three weeks to go until the Masters Golf at Augusta. From memory, Fred was in for chunks last year and got in a right pickle.

This year’s Masters is set to be one of the largest fields in Masters history. There are currently 94 registered players but, of course, we can put a line through many of those that are just not capable of winning this event.

There are some common thoughts about the key attributes needed to do well. Those include:-

- Big Hitter
- Comfortable with the woods and long irons off the floor
- Must be able to draw the ball hard
- Putting crucial
- High ball flight useful

By using the above criteria and looking through form I have been trying to work through crossing out as many as possible that don’t fit the profile. Not lots jumping off the page yet but one early rec:-

Gary Woodland - 100/1EW with BV. 5 places.

Click to see full-size image.

Having listed the criteria, Woodland doesn't exactly fit that but I do fancy him. Yes - he hits the ball very long but the make or break will be with the flat stick and his short game can get a bit ropey hence the big price. He also hits a natural fade but has been working hard on hitting the draw in the last couple of years. I am hoping the stars align for him this week at the Arnold Palmer and I expect the 100/1 for the Masters will shorten. A small tickle each way looks good.

Anyone got any ante post thoughts?

Definitely someone I have on my mind as likely to have a good Masters at some point in his career and he is in decent form this year with three top tens from nine tournaments.  The kind of player you are going to have to be a bit fortunate to win with but at 100-1.......I wouldn't be averse at all.

[Doobs]

Three weeks to go until the Masters Golf at Augusta. From memory, Fred was in for chunks last year and got in a right pickle.

This year’s Masters is set to be one of the largest fields in Masters history. There are currently 94 registered players but, of course, we can put a line through many of those that are just not capable of winning this event.

There are some common thoughts about the key attributes needed to do well. Those include:-

- Big Hitter
- Comfortable with the woods and long irons off the floor
- Must be able to draw the ball hard
- Putting crucial
- High ball flight useful

By using the above criteria and looking through form I have been trying to work through crossing out as many as possible that don’t fit the profile. Not lots jumping off the page yet but one early rec:-

Gary Woodland - 100/1EW with BV. 5 places.

Click to see full-size image.

Having listed the criteria, Woodland doesn't exactly fit that but I do fancy him. Yes - he hits the ball very long but the make or break will be with the flat stick and his short game can get a bit ropey hence the big price. He also hits a natural fade but has been working hard on hitting the draw in the last couple of years. I am hoping the stars align for him this week at the Arnold Palmer and I expect the 100/1 for the Masters will shorten. A small tickle each way looks good.

Anyone got any ante post thoughts?

I know you can't get the place yet, but he is 120/140 on Betfair and might be better to gamble on the place odds been good enough?  I'd tend to wait for the 6/7 places too.  Maybe a save on this week just in case he crushes!  

[Marky147]

Time for the boy to become a man?

[Omm]

I think we could do with Jordan Adz Doobs Speith winning this one.

[BigAdz]

The traits describe Bubba to a tee.

Been off my radar for ages, but he is back in some form though.

[arbboy]

Paddy's are £100 max free bet back if Man U don't go through on the usual markets. RVP at 7/2 first goal is best on high street, with the concession looks a nice bet to me?

Nice work jaffa!

[redarmi]

They have withdrawn the horse at Kempton....maybe saving it for another day now the rest haven't copped.....and they wonder why racing gets a bad press....

[doubleup]

hmmm freds Masters tactics should be to get decent EW bets on former winners as Gary Woodland et al are covered by the excellent value maiden winner bet.