Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/international/dubai-world-cup/winner

BET SUGGESTIONS

£30 WIN RULER OF THE WORLD 5/1 VARIOUS FIRMS

£10 WIN AKEED MOFEED 14/1 BETFAIR SPORTSBOOK

Sorry writing on phone main reason being the main joint fav with most firms The Fugue is rumoured to be running in the duty free rather than this the world cup. Some firms have reacted some have not. With The Fugue running 5/1 is ok without her think ROTW will start nearer 3/1.

Akeed Mofeed a bit more leftfield some will remember from time being a good horse with John Ox in Ireland a few seasons ago. Become very good in Hong Kong and usually runs its race, is bred for the surface and is quite closely tied up formline wise with another hong kong horse Military Attack who is generally 7/1 (some bigger). Think Akeed Mofeed should be very close to the price of MA just a tenner as not a certain runner.

Apologies for typos.

Thanks John,

CONFIRMATION ONLY

Dubai World Cup, Ruler of the World, £30 @ 5/1, BMU

Dubai World Cup, Akeed Mofeed, £10 @ 14/1, BetFair Sportsbook

19/03/2014 GBP 30.00 Single: RULER OF THE WORLD @ 5/1

Betid 37637571000 Time: 18:39 Bet Type: Single Stake: £ 30.00


---

19-Mar-14
17:40  Dubai World Cup
Akeed Mofeed - Dubai World Cup
Betfair Bet ID: O/0140260/0000019  14/1  10.00
 Open  150.00


BET PLACED

[arbboy]

Tidal Bay

I still think he has his own ideas, but you only have to listen to any racing programme and commentators always refer to him as an old favourite, and the money comes for him in most events.

Evidence suggests that the further he goes the more chance he has of getting involved and you know Nicholls has aimed him at the race.

I managed to get plenty of accounts to take the 25s Laddies offered a few weeks ago, but the closer it gets and no horse firing the public imagination after Cheltenham, it could be left to TB to be the one. Even the 16s still looks big to me. The front of the market will firm up for sure and with NRNB/FB first 5/6 looks a cracker to back elsewhere and lay back at /9s for a free run. I am heavily involved in another horse that I fancy to win, but for a trade and also a chance to win, this horse fits the bill.

Just cant see it not going off a lot shorter.

Thanks Adzy.

As of now, most books go..... 16/1, quarter odds 4 places.

Sporting Bet go 16/1, FIVE places

BMU go 14/1 SIX places.

So how do I best proceed here? Wait a while for the other place concessions to arrive?

Need some help, please.

365, bf sportsbook and power all go 16/1 NRNB 5 places which should be the preferred option if we choose to place the bet.

[tikay]

Three weeks to go until the Masters Golf at Augusta. From memory, Fred was in for chunks last year and got in a right pickle.

This year’s Masters is set to be one of the largest fields in Masters history. There are currently 94 registered players but, of course, we can put a line through many of those that are just not capable of winning this event.

There are some common thoughts about the key attributes needed to do well. Those include:-

- Big Hitter
- Comfortable with the woods and long irons off the floor
- Must be able to draw the ball hard
- Putting crucial
- High ball flight useful

By using the above criteria and looking through form I have been trying to work through crossing out as many as possible that don’t fit the profile. Not lots jumping off the page yet but one early rec:-

Gary Woodland - 100/1EW with BV. 5 places.

Click to see full-size image.

Having listed the criteria, Woodland doesn't exactly fit that but I do fancy him. Yes - he hits the ball very long but the make or break will be with the flat stick and his short game can get a bit ropey hence the big price. He also hits a natural fade but has been working hard on hitting the draw in the last couple of years. I am hoping the stars align for him this week at the Arnold Palmer and I expect the 100/1 for the Masters will shorten. A small tickle each way looks good.

Anyone got any ante post thoughts?

Thank you Mark.

We need to see what the other Golf Corry's have to say first, I think.

I'd also like that we sort of structure our Masters Betting a bit better this year.  

As far as I know, our current position is below, & we ought to bear that in mind when having further Masters bets.

Spieth, £40 @ 66/1

1st time winner, £100 @ 4/5

1st time winner £110 @ 8/11

Tiger Woods, £50 @ 10/1 (Not confirmed on thread yet).


Happy to build a little book, & that can include Mr Woodland, but I'd just like to sort our plan of attack first.  

If no big negatives come in, I'll get on Gary Woodland over the weekend, in line with your suggestion.  

DoubleUp suggested various ways of approaching this yesterday, but I need to refer back, as I can't quite recall the plan. 

Thanks again. Can't believe The Masters is nearly on us again.

[tikay]

Tidal Bay

I still think he has his own ideas, but you only have to listen to any racing programme and commentators always refer to him as an old favourite, and the money comes for him in most events.

Evidence suggests that the further he goes the more chance he has of getting involved and you know Nicholls has aimed him at the race.

I managed to get plenty of accounts to take the 25s Laddies offered a few weeks ago, but the closer it gets and no horse firing the public imagination after Cheltenham, it could be left to TB to be the one. Even the 16s still looks big to me. The front of the market will firm up for sure and with NRNB/FB first 5/6 looks a cracker to back elsewhere and lay back at /9s for a free run. I am heavily involved in another horse that I fancy to win, but for a trade and also a chance to win, this horse fits the bill.

Just cant see it not going off a lot shorter.

Thanks Adzy.

As of now, most books go..... 16/1, quarter odds 4 places.

Sporting Bet go 16/1, FIVE places

BMU go 14/1 SIX places.

So how do I best proceed here? Wait a while for the other place concessions to arrive?

Need some help, please.

365, bf sportsbook and power all go 16/1 NRNB 5 places which should be the preferred option if we choose to place the bet.

Thanks Mark,

I could get on easily with BF Sportsbook.

I'm just a little unlear if Adzy was suggesting we get on now, or wait, & if we get on, for how much.

[Tal]

5 places 1/4 or 1/5? Same for BMU's six?

Suppose it doesn't change the bet, but worth knowing.

[Marky147]

Spieth is going to win

/plan

[arbboy]

5 places 1/4 or 1/5? Same for BMU's six?

Suppose it doesn't change the bet, but worth knowing.

Not much in it but NRNB much bigger factor here than the extra place and taking a shorter price.

[Doobs]

Tidal Bay

I still think he has his own ideas, but you only have to listen to any racing programme and commentators always refer to him as an old favourite, and the money comes for him in most events.

Evidence suggests that the further he goes the more chance he has of getting involved and you know Nicholls has aimed him at the race.

I managed to get plenty of accounts to take the 25s Laddies offered a few weeks ago, but the closer it gets and no horse firing the public imagination after Cheltenham, it could be left to TB to be the one. Even the 16s still looks big to me. The front of the market will firm up for sure and with NRNB/FB first 5/6 looks a cracker to back elsewhere and lay back at /9s for a free run. I am heavily involved in another horse that I fancy to win, but for a trade and also a chance to win, this horse fits the bill.

Just cant see it not going off a lot shorter.

Thanks Adzy.

As of now, most books go..... 16/1, quarter odds 4 places.

Sporting Bet go 16/1, FIVE places

BMU go 14/1 SIX places.

So how do I best proceed here? Wait a while for the other place concessions to arrive?

Need some help, please.

365, bf sportsbook and power all go 16/1 NRNB 5 places which should be the preferred option if we choose to place the bet.

Thanks Mark,

I could get on easily with BF Sportsbook.

I'm just a little unlear if Adzy was suggesting we get on now, or wait, & if we get on, for how much.

You could possibly get 18/1 + 5/1 4 places with the Betfair exchange.  You lose NRNB though.  

I think 16/1 + 4/1 5 places is better than 14/1 + 7/2 5 places FWIW.

[tikay]

Masters Golf.

It is increasingly rumoured that Tiger Woods will miss The Masters due to injury.



http://www.tigerwoods.com/news/2014/03/18/69554590/tiger-to-miss-arnold-palmer-invitational-due-to-back-spasms/



Does this open up any exploitable angles for us?


http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/the-masters/winner

get another £200 on this*

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/the-masters/maiden-winner

and put £50 on Tiger with Bierfart Sportsbook at 10-1






*That is now a great bet again with Tigers slippage

Done that.

Not sure I'm brave enough for ANOTHER £200 on "First Time Winner", we already have over £200 on. Compliance, help me!

£50 @ 10/1, BetFair Sportsbook, Tiger Woods, The Masters.


19-Mar-14
09:55  Outright Winner
Tiger Woods - Outright Winner
Betfair Bet ID: O/0140260/0000018  10/1  50.00
 Open  550.00

BET PLACED

[arbboy]

Masters Golf.

It is increasingly rumoured that Tiger Woods will miss The Masters due to injury.



http://www.tigerwoods.com/news/2014/03/18/69554590/tiger-to-miss-arnold-palmer-invitational-due-to-back-spasms/



Does this open up any exploitable angles for us?


http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/the-masters/winner

get another £200 on this*

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/the-masters/maiden-winner

and put £50 on Tiger with Bierfart Sportsbook at 10-1






*That is now a great bet again with Tigers slippage

Done that.

Not sure I'm brave enough for ANOTHER £200 on "First Time Winner", we already have over £200 on. Compliance, help me!

£50 @ 10/1, BetFair Sportsbook, Tiger Woods, The Masters.


19-Mar-14
09:55  Outright Winner
Tiger Woods - Outright Winner
Betfair Bet ID: O/0140260/0000018  10/1  50.00
 Open  550.00

BET PLACED

Doobs what price do you make the maiden winner at masters?

[tikay]

Three weeks to go until the Masters Golf at Augusta. From memory, Fred was in for chunks last year and got in a right pickle.

This year’s Masters is set to be one of the largest fields in Masters history. There are currently 94 registered players but, of course, we can put a line through many of those that are just not capable of winning this event.

There are some common thoughts about the key attributes needed to do well. Those include:-

- Big Hitter
- Comfortable with the woods and long irons off the floor
- Must be able to draw the ball hard
- Putting crucial
- High ball flight useful

By using the above criteria and looking through form I have been trying to work through crossing out as many as possible that don’t fit the profile. Not lots jumping off the page yet but one early rec:-

Gary Woodland - 100/1EW with BV. 5 places.

Click to see full-size image.

Having listed the criteria, Woodland doesn't exactly fit that but I do fancy him. Yes - he hits the ball very long but the make or break will be with the flat stick and his short game can get a bit ropey hence the big price. He also hits a natural fade but has been working hard on hitting the draw in the last couple of years. I am hoping the stars align for him this week at the Arnold Palmer and I expect the 100/1 for the Masters will shorten. A small tickle each way looks good.

Anyone got any ante post thoughts?

Definitely someone I have on my mind as likely to have a good Masters at some point in his career and he is in decent form this year with three top tens from nine tournaments.  The kind of player you are going to have to be a bit fortunate to win with but at 100-1.......I wouldn't be averse at all.

Only just seen this, & I was looking at the Gary Woodland suggestion just now.


Here is the current Market, to remind me, & I'll sort it out in the next day or so.


http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/the-masters/winner

[tikay]

Doobs what price do you make the maiden winner at masters?

If it helps, DoubleUp, who is big on "1st time Winner" @ 8/11, posted this analysis yesterday.....


This is the updated odds - you can back every previous winner and maiden winner for £95 and win £100

as   15   6.7
bw   22   4.5
cs   34   2.9
pm   15   6.7
ac   67   1.5
ti   250   0.4
zj   33   3.0
tw   11   9.1
fc   151   0.7
sl   1001   0.1
lm   1001   0.1
bc   1001   0.1
cs   1001   0.1
iw   5001   0.0
tw   1001   0.1
mw   1001   0.1
mo   1001   0.1
jmo   1001   0.1
bl   501   0.2
vs   301   0.3
1st   1.73   57.8

      94.7

[Doobs]

Masters Golf.

It is increasingly rumoured that Tiger Woods will miss The Masters due to injury.



http://www.tigerwoods.com/news/2014/03/18/69554590/tiger-to-miss-arnold-palmer-invitational-due-to-back-spasms/



Does this open up any exploitable angles for us?


http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/the-masters/winner

get another £200 on this*

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/the-masters/maiden-winner

and put £50 on Tiger with Bierfart Sportsbook at 10-1






*That is now a great bet again with Tigers slippage

Done that.

Not sure I'm brave enough for ANOTHER £200 on "First Time Winner", we already have over £200 on. Compliance, help me!

£50 @ 10/1, BetFair Sportsbook, Tiger Woods, The Masters.


19-Mar-14
09:55  Outright Winner
Tiger Woods - Outright Winner
Betfair Bet ID: O/0140260/0000018  10/1  50.00
 Open  550.00

BET PLACED

Doobs what price do you make the maiden winner at masters?

I backed it when it was first raised, the price seems fine, especially with a possibly injured Woods.  Don't really understand why we have put £50 on a possibly injured Woods to cover a £200/£250 bet.  Surely we cover with about £20/£25?  I am just a bit confused here.

Woodland still 120/140 Betfair.

Last year, we missed good bets on the Masters, as we were already overloaded before it started.  

#TeamJordan.

[JaffaCake]

Hi sonour, backed rvp with paddy as they were money back if united went out, seemed a good hedge as u had me on united to go through at 3/1 on their messenger service - first time I'm used messenger and I got a free £20 bet, presumably for using that service? The 3/1 was £20 max. I'm not welcome at baldy, tho there's a branch across the road I could wander into should anything good come up

[tikay]

Hi sonour, backed rvp with paddy as they were money back if united went out, seemed a good hedge as u had me on united to go through at 3/1 on their messenger service - first time I'm used messenger and I got a free £20 bet, presumably for using that service? The 3/1 was £20 max. I'm not welcome at baldy, tho there's a branch across the road I could wander into should anything good come up

However did you come to be Restricted, Jeff?

I sort of assumed all your accounts would be clean.