Tips for Tikay

[Mark_Porter]

The traits describe Bubba to a tee.

Been off my radar for ages, but he is back in some form though.

Yea, he is just perfectly set up for the Masters. Can move the ball every which way, bombs it further than anyone else and crucially is getting it going on the greens again this year.

Saying that he is still erratic off the tee like always. 120th on the tour with 57% driving accuracy was putting me off but he hits it so far he seems to get away with it. Also the Masters doesn't really punish the odd errant tee shot. Case in point - remember that ridiculous snap hook he played out of the trees in 2012 in the playoff.

Form wise - he is finally starting to show something again since he won the Masters in 2012. 6 top tens in 8 tournaments this season, a win, a second and a 9th in his last three. He really seems to be finding form at the right time.

He is best price 12/1 second fav to win the Arnold Palmer this week but is a standout 25/1 for the Masters with Laddies.

Tikay - I think the general concencus was to wait for the offers of extra places to build up a portfolio. The risk to that is prices going. I have taken Bubba now - and it matches Betfair too - hazzah I'm learning.

I can't back Jordan as a newbie at Augusta. It takes time to understand how best to play that course, I know he has been playing a load of practice rounds to try and get the nerves out the way but not one for me at the current prices. Hope he does well for Fred and everyone on of course.

[Mark_Porter]

Only other one I quite like at a big price is Bill Haas.

Always seems to be there or thereabouts at Augusta despite being a slightly shorter hitter. Will see what comes about in a couple of weeks time.

**Ignore Wooodland for now of course, I stupidly bet him yesterday forgetting to check Betfair before being prompted.

[arbboy]

Doobs what price do you make the maiden winner at masters?

If it helps, DoubleUp, who is big on "1st time Winner" @ 8/11, posted this analysis yesterday.....


This is the updated odds - you can back every previous winner and maiden winner for £95 and win £100

as   15   6.7
bw   22   4.5
cs   34   2.9
pm   15   6.7
ac   67   1.5
ti   250   0.4
zj   33   3.0
tw   11   9.1
fc   151   0.7
sl   1001   0.1
lm   1001   0.1
bc   1001   0.1
cs   1001   0.1
iw   5001   0.0
tw   1001   0.1
mw   1001   0.1
mo   1001   0.1
jmo   1001   0.1
bl   501   0.2
vs   301   0.3
1st   1.73   57.8

      94.7

Ok so as it stands the sum of all the prev winners is 37% roughly 7/4 so we are getting 8/11 about a 4/7 shot on a maiden winner with the huge upside of tiger potentially not playing.  

Cheers

Edit several of these prices in the above list are probably short of their true 100% price as well so its probably closer to a 1/2 shot.

[doubleup]

Masters Golf.

It is increasingly rumoured that Tiger Woods will miss The Masters due to injury.



http://www.tigerwoods.com/news/2014/03/18/69554590/tiger-to-miss-arnold-palmer-invitational-due-to-back-spasms/



Does this open up any exploitable angles for us?


http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/the-masters/winner

get another £200 on this*

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/the-masters/maiden-winner

and put £50 on Tiger with Bierfart Sportsbook at 10-1






*That is now a great bet again with Tigers slippage

Done that.

Not sure I'm brave enough for ANOTHER £200 on "First Time Winner", we already have over £200 on. Compliance, help me!

£50 @ 10/1, BetFair Sportsbook, Tiger Woods, The Masters.


19-Mar-14
09:55  Outright Winner
Tiger Woods - Outright Winner
Betfair Bet ID: O/0140260/0000018  10/1  50.00
 Open  550.00

BET PLACED

Doobs what price do you make the maiden winner at masters?

I backed it when it was first raised, the price seems fine, especially with a possibly injured Woods.  Don't really understand why we have put £50 on a possibly injured Woods to cover a £200/£250 bet.  Surely we cover with about £20/£25?  I am just a bit confused here.

Woodland still 120/140 Betfair.

Last year, we missed good bets on the Masters, as we were already overloaded before it started.  

#TeamJordan.

He's got to put another £200 on the maiden winner.  

The idea is to hedge the return not just the stake hence the Tiger bet.

Stage 2 will be to back various other past winners EW with favourable place terms.  So the overall result should be a small guaranteed profit on the win side and several EV++ place bets.

[arbboy]

Masters Golf.

It is increasingly rumoured that Tiger Woods will miss The Masters due to injury.



http://www.tigerwoods.com/news/2014/03/18/69554590/tiger-to-miss-arnold-palmer-invitational-due-to-back-spasms/



Does this open up any exploitable angles for us?


http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/the-masters/winner

get another £200 on this*

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/the-masters/maiden-winner

and put £50 on Tiger with Bierfart Sportsbook at 10-1






*That is now a great bet again with Tigers slippage

Done that.

Not sure I'm brave enough for ANOTHER £200 on "First Time Winner", we already have over £200 on. Compliance, help me!

£50 @ 10/1, BetFair Sportsbook, Tiger Woods, The Masters.


19-Mar-14
09:55  Outright Winner
Tiger Woods - Outright Winner
Betfair Bet ID: O/0140260/0000018  10/1  50.00
 Open  550.00

BET PLACED

Doobs what price do you make the maiden winner at masters?

I backed it when it was first raised, the price seems fine, especially with a possibly injured Woods.  Don't really understand why we have put £50 on a possibly injured Woods to cover a £200/£250 bet.  Surely we cover with about £20/£25?  I am just a bit confused here.

Woodland still 120/140 Betfair.

Last year, we missed good bets on the Masters, as we were already overloaded before it started.  

#TeamJordan.

He's got to put another £200 on the maiden winner.  

The idea is to hedge the return not just the stake hence the Tiger bet.

Stage 2 will be to back various other past winners EW with favourable place terms.  So the overall result should be a small guaranteed profit on the win side and several EV++ place bets.

Think it would be much easier to just treat this as a separate bet.  It's a decent bet for sure getting 8/11 about an 8/15 shot with potential upside of Tiger not playing increasing the potential edge.  Don't think we have to try to lock in a 'GTD' 5% return in this manner as it will force us to back certain previous winners at big prices which probably are not value.  Secondly the biggest % of the previous winner book (Tiger at 9% or 10/1) we have backed win only and this would have been the bet with the biggest ew edge but we have only backed it win only losing the part of the bet which would have had an edge for sure (tiger to place) and backing tiger to win at the 'correct' price with no edge.  Confused!!!!

[doubleup]

We have specifically put in a larger bet than bankroll dictates for the hedging angle.

Tiger is a special case as he will almost def be a shorter price than 10s if he plays.  Also with injury doubts he is weighted towards a win rather than a place.

[tikay]

Masters Golf.

It is increasingly rumoured that Tiger Woods will miss The Masters due to injury.



http://www.tigerwoods.com/news/2014/03/18/69554590/tiger-to-miss-arnold-palmer-invitational-due-to-back-spasms/



Does this open up any exploitable angles for us?


http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/the-masters/winner

get another £200 on this*

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/the-masters/maiden-winner

and put £50 on Tiger with Bierfart Sportsbook at 10-1






*That is now a great bet again with Tigers slippage

Perhaps I got it round my neck (shock) but this was where I got the £50 Tiger bet from. Perhaps I was supposed to bet him EW?

So, now what do I do?

I'll be mostly offline the rest of the day, & tomorrow morning, but I'll pop on & off when I can.

[tikay]

We have specifically put in a larger bet than bankroll dictates for the hedging angle.

Tiger is a special case as he will almost def be a shorter price than 10s if he plays.  Also with injury doubts he is weighted towards a win rather than a place.

Phew.

[BigAdz]

We have specifically put in a larger bet than bankroll dictates for the hedging angle.

Tiger is a special case as he will almost def be a shorter price than 10s if he plays.  Also with injury doubts he is weighted towards a win rather than a place.

I would have thought with an injury he is weighted to lose......

[doubleup]

We have specifically put in a larger bet than bankroll dictates for the hedging angle.

Tiger is a special case as he will almost def be a shorter price than 10s if he plays.  Also with injury doubts he is weighted towards a win rather than a place.

I would have thought with an injury he is weighted to lose......

What I'm trying to say is that he is 6-1 if he's fit.  He's is 10-1 because he might start and be unable to perform/withdraw because of his back.  I'd guess that half of the time he places, he wins (because he is fit and therefore 6-1).  So there is much better value betting win than place.

[TightEnd]

For the Arizona bet


http://www.therichest.com/sports/basketball-sports/top-10-most-likely-teams-to-win-march-madness/10/

1.

"
Top 10 NCAA Teams Most Likely to Win March Madness
Published by John Belaska on March 18, 2014 in Basketball

Sean Miller led the Arizona Wildcats to a Pac-10 title this year and is in great position to add a national championship to the school’s trophy case. With stud players like Aaron Gordon, Nick Johnson, and the seven-foot-tall center Kaleb Tarczewski, this team has the talent to go all the way. The biggest reason why the Wildcats have the best chance to win it all this year is that they are playing in the Western region. Next to Arizona, Creighton is the best team. The competition thins out drastically after Wisconsin. The road will be the easiest for them, meaning the will be freshest by the end of the tournament."

[arbboy]

For the Arizona bet


http://www.therichest.com/sports/basketball-sports/top-10-most-likely-teams-to-win-march-madness/10/

1.

"
Top 10 NCAA Teams Most Likely to Win March Madness
Published by John Belaska on March 18, 2014 in Basketball

Sean Miller led the Arizona Wildcats to a Pac-10 title this year and is in great position to add a national championship to the school’s trophy case. With stud players like Aaron Gordon, Nick Johnson, and the seven-foot-tall center Kaleb Tarczewski, this team has the talent to go all the way. The biggest reason why the Wildcats have the best chance to win it all this year is that they are playing in the Western region. Next to Arizona, Creighton is the best team. The competition thins out drastically after Wisconsin. The road will be the easiest for them, meaning the will be freshest by the end of the tournament."

I have also read that they have the lowest travel distance for the knock out stages out of all of the major contenders as well only having the short commute from Arizona to Cali.  Looks like we got a great chance of going deep with this bet. gogogo

[redarmi]

We have specifically put in a larger bet than bankroll dictates for the hedging angle.

Tiger is a special case as he will almost def be a shorter price than 10s if he plays.  Also with injury doubts he is weighted towards a win rather than a place.

I would have thought with an injury he is weighted to lose......

What I'm trying to say is that he is 6-1 if he's fit.  He's is 10-1 because he might start and be unable to perform/withdraw because of his back.  I'd guess that half of the time he places, he wins (because he is fit and therefore 6-1).  So there is much better value betting win than place.

I'm really not sure this is the case.  He clearly played at Doral with an injury and I would guess he may very well play at Augusta at less than 100% too.  To miss the Masters I would guess he would probably have to be in pretty bad shape.  I actually would guess that the chances of him playing fully fit are close to zero at this point yet the chances of him actually missing the tournament are maybe 30-40% so a lot of the time we have a runner that isn't 100%.  He went off at 14-1 for the cadillac in similar circumstances.

[doubleup]

We have specifically put in a larger bet than bankroll dictates for the hedging angle.

Tiger is a special case as he will almost def be a shorter price than 10s if he plays.  Also with injury doubts he is weighted towards a win rather than a place.

I would have thought with an injury he is weighted to lose......

What I'm trying to say is that he is 6-1 if he's fit.  He's is 10-1 because he might start and be unable to perform/withdraw because of his back.  I'd guess that half of the time he places, he wins (because he is fit and therefore 6-1).  So there is much better value betting win than place.

I'm really not sure this is the case.  He clearly played at Doral with an injury and I would guess he may very well play at Augusta at less than 100% too.  To miss the Masters I would guess he would probably have to be in pretty bad shape.  I actually would guess that the chances of him playing fully fit are close to zero at this point yet the chances of him actually missing the tournament are maybe 30-40% so a lot of the time we have a runner that isn't 100%.  He went off at 14-1 for the cadillac in similar circumstances.

My comment is entirely related to when he starts and the merit of backing him each way when he plays.  Because of the injury there is clearly a high probability if him finishing way down the field.  I can't see how that would ever be a good place bet.

 

[Tal]

Spurs team tonight has no defenders and one striker (and that's Soldado)

The plucky Spaniard is 10/1 FGS with BMU and Bet All Year. Really don't see how that's a fair price. Must be a bet, surely? Can even get three places with BetAllYear at 100/30.



Dominic Ball, Connor Ogilvie and Harry Winks - all 18 - on the bench for the first time tonight.