BET SUGGESTION
£10 each way Born To Surprise 33/1 various firms
http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-03-29-doncaster/15:15/winnerI had a brief look at the Lincoln about six weeks ago and noted this horse was entered. The horse rang a bell with me and upon some digging I remembered the horse had an excellent course record at Doncaster and seemed to have a quiet season last year with Michael Bell.
It transpired the owners bought the horse in the HIT sales in Novemeber and moved the horse to Lee Carter. Fair to say Lee Carter was at best a journeyman jockey for various Epsom trainers including Terry Mills. He made a low-key start to training last year and is still flying under the radar this year. He has,however, already proved he can train a bit.
Jan 2014 stats 2 winners from 11 runners
Feb 2014 stats 6 winners from 22 runners
March 2014 stats 3 winners from 13 runners
All three months have shown a level stakes profit and he has resurrected a few older formerly decent animals to win claimers and sellers for him. In this weeks Weekender he states his aim is to get winners in whatever form he can to try and establish his name to a wider audience, he goes onto state that Born To Surprise was bought for the sole purpose of running in the Spring Mile (if as transpired he could not get into the Lincoln).
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The one I'm looking forward to is Born To Surprise bought for the race and were excited by him, doesn't want it to firm needed the kempton run, and was bought specifically for this race.
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So the trainer instructed the owners to buy the horse and aim it for the race i am sure most of this field have done the same. The Kempton run was interesting looked very much a prep for something, the horse was very very keen restrained in rear and made some late progress under a very tender ride. This all fits into the trainers quotes and that was actually a good handicap.
Doncaster record
Two wins from three track starts (including a maiden win) The other win being in a big field handicap and the defeat being a creditable 6th when racing against a bias in another big handicap.
He only had five runs last season three of which were at Ascot (a track he has never ran well at) they can be excused as it is a specialist track these days. The Haydock run was fine (4th after racing up with the pace unusually). That was only in August last year and the horse is now 5lbs lower, safe to say fairly handicapped rather than thrown in.
I like the trainer change Michael Bell had a poor season last year (rumours of personal issues) and a lot of his horses simply did not run to form. There is not evidence from last seasons form the horse has gone at the game.
Of course it is a fiercely competitive handicap and the draw in stall 1 could be a case of no chance even if he is fit and ready for this. The clear fav Gworn is drawn on our side though so that should be a positive.
At 33/1 I am happy to take a change the new trainer has the horse 100% back to its best (or close to it) with the course form, fair handicap mark and trainer in good form and seeming to have half an idea there will be worse 33/1 chances in the race.
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