Tips for Tikay

[exstream]

Aguero missing arsenal game.
Don't know when he's back but his price drifted to 16s.
Toure surely a great each way bet in this case?

So we get 2.66/1 the place 8/1 1/3 (1,2)

How long is Aguero out for?

If its longer than this weekend Yaya looks like an each way bet with a shot to nothing at a Sturridge injury, for example


Hazard has 14, might he catch Yaya for 2nd........

Im not seeing an E/W option with BetVictor and without that i dont think i could back Yaya although aguero could be a back once he comes back depending on price if he drifts further.

yup just checked

no e/w option available.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/top-goalscorer-w-o-suarez

Oooh, they got rid.
Pointless now.

[RickBFA]

a little less value than Vlla, but is anyone taking odds on Swansea and West Brom at home this weekend?

Swansea are 4/5 v Norwich

West Brom 5/6 v Cardiff

Of course both away teams are no great shakes, but all 4 teams are bottom six and I was surprised to see the two home teams so short.

I thought both home teams were lays at the prices meaning we'd have the draws onside.

Opinions?

Both too short esp Swansea I don't get why no rwich and Hughton have had so much heat this year! Think they have done pretty much what they should have done. Make the game a flip on neutral ground so Swansea should def be odds against in this spot IMO

There was a lot of debate about football betting in the early days of this thread.

I thought the general line of thought was the Premier League was such a well research market that there was no value. I think the view was the price reflected the true odds decided by the market on these events.

Whereas lower leagues offer more opportunities for value.

I am just thick, what I am missing?

[Tal]

Fans of getting immodestly corpulent on value pie will be overcome with joy to learn that Aronian is set to finish second in the Candidates Chess Tournament to the previous World Champion, Viswanathan Anand. Twelve of fourteen rounds completed and Anand has a one point lead, with the additional advantage of winning on the first tiebreak if they finish level; effectively 1.5 up with 2 to play. Anand has signalled very clearly that he is happy to take draws and took them in his last two games in positions where he was better.

Last year, Carlsen and Kramnik wobbled horribly under the pressure of the last two rounds because of the significance of the win. Anything is possible. It is just unlikely now.

I tipped up Aronian at 5/2 while Sky were sleeping. He went off at 6/4. Sad face.

By way of compensation, I know tikay loves a crosstable:

Click to see full-size image.

[tikay]

We are ON "Born to Surprise" (John) & Dom's Villa Warmth, details in the morning.

Shame I missed exstream's EW thing, but too late now.

[Kmac84]

Fairly late in the day for Fred but in the event anyone is about and fancies a "punt" a guy I work alongside was touting Dark Lane as a bet in the 6:30 he apparently knows someone at Dave Evans yard.  I am put off by the fact there has been no money but had had a few quid e/w earlier.

[exstream]

Yaya Toure to score anytime tomorrow is 3/1 with PP enhanced special power play.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/arsenal-v-man-city/anytime-goalscorer
Rest of bookmakers odds.

[hector62]

Evening Mr T.

Tonight St Helens host Leeds in the superleague. St Helens have 7 players out and Leeds have been made favourites. The points expectation is very low and the drop goal is a big player tonight. We know Leeds will attempt it even when they are 3 scores ahead.

Suggest £15 a drop goal @ 3-1 with bet victor.

[tikay]

Evening Mr T.

Tonight St Helens host Leeds in the superleague. St Helens have 7 players out and Leeds have been made favourites. The points expectation is very low and the drop goal is a big player tonight. We know Leeds will attempt it even when they are 3 scores ahead.

Suggest £15 a drop goal @ 3-1 with bet victor.

Thank you Mr H.

All aboard.

BET PLACED

[Kmac84]

Anyone ever heard of wisepunter?  I was working on something today and came across it.  Tried digging around to see if I could get more info but other than what duedil brought up there wasnt much out there.  

The reason I ask is the guy behind it is a software developer who is selling his product to some mob from croatia and they are paying him 6k a month.  Sort of got me thinking about tipsters and what not and what must these companies be making if they pay out that sort of month for a tipster.  Should just subscribe to betting emporium.

[TheDazzler]

a little less value than Vlla, but is anyone taking odds on Swansea and West Brom at home this weekend?

Swansea are 4/5 v Norwich

West Brom 5/6 v Cardiff

Of course both away teams are no great shakes, but all 4 teams are bottom six and I was surprised to see the two home teams so short.

I thought both home teams were lays at the prices meaning we'd have the draws onside.

Opinions?

Both too short esp Swansea I don't get why no rwich and Hughton have had so much heat this year! Think they have done pretty much what they should have done. Make the game a flip on neutral ground so Swansea should def be odds against in this spot IMO

There was a lot of debate about football betting in the early days of this thread.

I thought the general line of thought was the Premier League was such a well research market that there was no value. I think the view was the price reflected the true odds decided by the market on these events.

Whereas lower leagues offer more opportunities for value.

I am just thick, what I am missing?

You are correct, that was a point put forward. And I think it is universally agreed that lower leagues can offer more potential value as information can be more hidden to the market but known to fans. At this point Fred bets pretty much ceased on football.
Arbboy and Red (maybe some others?) have since argued that there is still value to be had on bigger matches due to bookies long term positions and general weight of almost blind money on 'fans favourites' (United/Pool etc). I think a number of us have pointed out that backing Villa away and opposing them at home has been profitable for the last 2 seasons. The information is all there, the reasons for it are straightforward but mug punters don't want to see it so bookies price the matches up according to where the weight of money goes. 
This looks to be one of those spots. Possibly all favs this weekend might be too short as bookies might be afraid of yet another 'multi footie favourites accumulator tsunami' as has happened twice in the last couple of months.

Conclusion: Keep calm and back the Villa

[arbboy]

a little less value than Vlla, but is anyone taking odds on Swansea and West Brom at home this weekend?

Swansea are 4/5 v Norwich

West Brom 5/6 v Cardiff

Of course both away teams are no great shakes, but all 4 teams are bottom six and I was surprised to see the two home teams so short.

I thought both home teams were lays at the prices meaning we'd have the draws onside.

Opinions?

Both too short esp Swansea I don't get why no rwich and Hughton have had so much heat this year! Think they have done pretty much what they should have done. Make the game a flip on neutral ground so Swansea should def be odds against in this spot IMO

There was a lot of debate about football betting in the early days of this thread.

I thought the general line of thought was the Premier League was such a well research market that there was no value. I think the view was the price reflected the true odds decided by the market on these events.

Whereas lower leagues offer more opportunities for value.

I am just thick, what I am missing?

You are correct, that was a point put forward. And I think it is universally agreed that lower leagues can offer more potential value as information can be more hidden to the market but known to fans. At this point Fred bets pretty much ceased on football.
Arbboy and Red (maybe some others?) have since argued that there is still value to be had on bigger matches due to bookies long term positions and general weight of almost blind money on 'fans favourites' (United/Pool etc). I think a number of us have pointed out that backing Villa away and opposing them at home has been profitable for the last 2 seasons. The information is all there, the reasons for it are straightforward but mug punters don't want to see it so bookies price the matches up according to where the weight of money goes. 
This looks to be one of those spots. Possibly all favs this weekend might be too short as bookies might be afraid of yet another 'multi footie favourites accumulator tsunami' as has happened twice in the last couple of months.

Conclusion: Keep calm and back the Villa

It doesn't happen very often but the weight of money and over reaction in asia to some of the sharp betting lines and then the 'sheep' following them in at prices the sharps wouldn't back them does happen.  There has to be value in the EPL when games move 20/30/40 spots off minimal team news etc either the early prices are wrong and/or the closing prices have moved too far.  Quite often its a bit of both.

[sonour]

Channel 4 races for WH offer tomorrow

2.05 Doncaster
2.20 Kempton
2.40 Doncaster
2.55 Kempton
3.15 Doncaster
3.30 Kempton
3.50 Doncaster

[sonour]

Tikay

2.40 Doncaster Jack Dexter 2/1 £25 WH please

Matches Betfair plus BOG

[kpnuts]

Channel 4 races for WH offer tomorrow

2.05 Doncaster
2.20 Kempton
2.40 Doncaster
2.55 Kempton
3.15 Doncaster
3.30 Kempton
3.50 Doncaster

also applies to all Meydan races tomorrow. 15 races total.

[Longy]

a little less value than Vlla, but is anyone taking odds on Swansea and West Brom at home this weekend?

Swansea are 4/5 v Norwich

West Brom 5/6 v Cardiff

Of course both away teams are no great shakes, but all 4 teams are bottom six and I was surprised to see the two home teams so short.

I thought both home teams were lays at the prices meaning we'd have the draws onside.

Opinions?

Both too short esp Swansea I don't get why no rwich and Hughton have had so much heat this year! Think they have done pretty much what they should have done. Make the game a flip on neutral ground so Swansea should def be odds against in this spot IMO

A mixture of ludricous fan expectations and some pretty sterile football unfortunately. I agree that points wise what the hell did the fans expect but under the previous manager the team played with verve and were excellent to watch and Hughton is paying for following that imo.

I certainly would be classed as pro Hughton amongst Norwich fans though!