Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

Tighty. tut tut.

You mustn't be result orientated.

We have been told that the Free Bets are a must do, no matter how often we lose on them. Just suck it up. If we live to be 1000,or haven't gone skint, we may just see variance level out.

I am not being. couldn't see how those Meydan races, ultra competitve, early season fit the usual method/shape of betting markets of the maths bets

I couldn't post it yesterday on a coach on the M6!

[BigAdz]

I agree.

I know several of the guys on here that know their stuff are selective in using these, if at all.

Maths wise, they may be correct, but race selection has to be a major part of the equation.

[sonour]

I agree.

I know several of the guys on here that know their stuff are selective in using these, if at all.

Maths wise, they may be correct, but race selection has to be a major part of the equation.

I don't agree.

These are purely maths bets and today the maths was good, Meydan included. I know nothing about horse racing and neither do I need to to do these bets. If the price is close to Betfair and they are below say 3/1 they are autobets.

Unless of course you think the price on Betfair is wrong ? If you do then just lay them all on Betfair and you are guaranteed to win, right ?

[Tal]

Superb write-up as ever, Tighty.

I've always been assured that Lincoln day is one the bookies mark on their calendar every year, just incase Cheltenham goes badly.

Fat lady has sung in Russia for the chess bet. Tikay's return will allow us to have a proper go at the Carlsen v Anand World Championship match later in the year

[BigAdz]

No doubt someone will spout the usual guff about sample size and variance etc, but at the end of the day we continue to do/run badly in these.

I don't profess to be any form of a maths expert but surely when you dip in and out of something like we do with random races, and not a constant flow of data, you don't give variance the chance to level out, if that makes sense?

I also agree with the point, I think, Tighty was trying to make. Too many of the races today were based on too many unknown factors. Many horses had never run at Meydan and back in the UK, seasonal debuts all round.

I would also go back to the secondary point that you have a short window to use any free bet that occasionally gets generated and being forced to use Billy, who are rarely best price on anything worthwhile, that you actually lose value as you have to bet on something.

But then what do I know?!

[arbboy]

I agree.

I know several of the guys on here that know their stuff are selective in using these, if at all.

Maths wise, they may be correct, but race selection has to be a major part of the equation.

I don't agree.

These are purely maths bets and today the maths was good, Meydan included. I know nothing about horse racing and neither do I need to to do these bets. If the price is close to Betfair and they are below say 3/1 they are autobets.

Unless of course you think the price on Betfair is wrong ? If you do then just lay them all on Betfair and you are guaranteed to win, right ?

correct mrs bandit but that would involve saying so before the results are known!!!!!  Not one of Adz's greatest points posting before the result is known!!!

[rinswun]

'Zona going to OT against Wisconsin in the
Elite 8. Available to view on ESPN if you have BT sport or to
stream otherwise.
Compulsive viewing. Go Wildcats!

[rinswun]

Sigh. Wisconsin with the upset, as much as
2 over 1 can be an upset. Great drama but
sadly that doesn't  pay the bills. Now that out long term sweat has died I feel like we should be onside with the Michigan State Spartans. To be they are the class of the NCAA field now. Any other regular watchers got thoughts?

[Marky147]

No pressure on Chompy's firm tomorrow then!

Think I'll just check the results in the morning next time, because watching that game just agitated me no end, even when Arizona were winning.

Wisconsin had a sasquatch who played like Teen Wolf, and he seemed to do for Arizona's chances.

That and the fact they went into meltdown either side of halftime

[McGlashan]

Hall v Ward stopped on a cut due to an accidental head clash in the 2nd round so it's a technical draw.  We run bad.

Technical draw my arse. In no other sport would they abandon a match one tenth of the way through and agree a draw. No contest sounds like a much more appropriate term.

Has the bet been settled as a loser?

[TightEnd]

I agree.

I know several of the guys on here that know their stuff are selective in using these, if at all.

Maths wise, they may be correct, but race selection has to be a major part of the equation.

I don't agree.

These are purely maths bets and today the maths was good, Meydan included. I know nothing about horse racing and neither do I need to to do these bets. If the price is close to Betfair and they are below say 3/1 they are autobets.

Unless of course you think the price on Betfair is wrong ? If you do then just lay them all on Betfair and you are guaranteed to win, right ?

I am not sure this is correct

Yes for example if you get 6/4 about something that is 2.3 on Betfair then great

but the variables around that 2.3 being anything like accurate for Meydan (and to a lesser extent for very early flat season domestic racing) yesterday are huge aren't they?

- comparing form from 6-9 months ago across countries and continents to try and form a market
- many first time out this season
- some haven't raced on the surface
- very very competitve races

I looked on http://www.dubaiworldcup.com/race/racing-info/results to see 14,16 and 18 runner fields

So we might beat Betfair but Betfair/the whole market might all be wrong and we'd be better off laying every favourite because of all the variables affecting market composition?

It was my understanding that the maths bets worked best in market shapes where you had a shortish favourite or two...something like 7/4, 5/2 6/1 bar and reasonably small field sizes

It also has to be logical that the maths bets work best when other variables are to an extent known?

eg an 8 runner chase at haydock in april when you have a season's form, limited runners, or 9 runner group race at newmarket in september...limited runners, known recent form etc and not on the first day of the season in big fields in inter-continental races?

I am pretty certain that the maths bets put up on most weekends are filtered for suitable races, market shapes etc? 

I follow all the bookie puff on twitter and the more candid accounts were all openly stating that they were happy to take on the short-priced stuff at Meydan yesterday mentioning the type of stuff point to in this post

Anyway, I repeat, this isn't personal and have nothing against Maths bets as a form of making money!.

 I just want the thread to do well, to have good results and to learn from mistakes, if indeed this is one. Its easy just to say nothing but the lack of selectivity stuck out like a sore thumb yesterday. If I am wrong, fine, happy to be educated further 

[Doobs]

Tighty. tut tut.

You mustn't be result orientated.

We have been told that the Free Bets are a must do, no matter how often we lose on them. Just suck it up. If we live to be 1000,or haven't gone skint, we may just see variance level out.

I am not being. couldn't see how those Meydan races, ultra competitve, early season fit the usual method/shape of betting markets of the maths bets

I couldn't post it yesterday on a coach on the M6!

One 11/4 winner plus one free bet = effectively loss of £65 at Meydan, not -£1200.  Cavalryman was the most unlucky of losers and Shea Shea may not have been able to keep up with the pace, but may have finished like a train.  

As Sonour said, where were the people telling you to lay the favourites yesterday?  As I mentioned before, Cheltenham 2013 we crush the offers, we are all brilliant, Cheltenham 2014, a bunch of outsiders win, we are idiots.

We need to be looking at other bets too.  We both know the formula 1 bets were badly placed, and that drop goal betting just looks wrong.  

Shame I feel forced to throw this away here, just when a stream of +EV bets should be what you need at this time.  But we aren't grinding these, we are building a book on the Masters.  

Ofc Jordan wins, I'll be giving it large.  Hopefully we won't have to put up with a truck full of aftertiming.

[TightEnd]

Tighty. tut tut.

You mustn't be result orientated.

We have been told that the Free Bets are a must do, no matter how often we lose on them. Just suck it up. If we live to be 1000,or haven't gone skint, we may just see variance level out.

I am not being. couldn't see how those Meydan races, ultra competitve, early season fit the usual method/shape of betting markets of the maths bets

I couldn't post it yesterday on a coach on the M6!

One 11/4 winner plus one free bet = effectively loss of £65 at Meydan, not -£1200.  Cavalryman was the most unlucky of losers and Shea Shea may not have been able to keep up with the pace, but may have finished like a train. 

As Sonour said, where were the people telling you to lay the favourites yesterday?  As I mentioned before, Cheltenham 2013 we crush the offers, we are all brilliant, Cheltenham 2014, a bunch of outsiders win, we are idiots.

We need to be looking at other bets too.  We both know the formula 1 bets were badly placed, and that drop goal betting just looks wrong. 

Shame I feel forced to throw this away here, just when a stream of +EV bets should be what you need at this time.  But we aren't grinding these, we are building a book on the Masters. 

Ofc Jordan wins, I'll be giving it large.  Hopefully we won't have to put up with a truck full of aftertiming.

the F1 bets definitely badly placed, when stale, and we are definitely missing lots of tricks throughout a lot of sports, mainly in bet placement

people seem reluctant to question. I do so, unable to do so yesterday, and get the aftertiming thing thrown my way. I probably get it in the neck if I throw the questions up beforehand too!

I repeat I have nothing against these types of bets, but I don't think the racing yesterday suited the maths bets for the fundamentals I mention above

[BigAdz]

I agree.

I know several of the guys on here that know their stuff are selective in using these, if at all.

Maths wise, they may be correct, but race selection has to be a major part of the equation.

I don't agree.

These are purely maths bets and today the maths was good, Meydan included. I know nothing about horse racing and neither do I need to to do these bets. If the price is close to Betfair and they are below say 3/1 they are autobets.

Unless of course you think the price on Betfair is wrong ? If you do then just lay them all on Betfair and you are guaranteed to win, right ?

correct mrs bandit but that would involve saying so before the results are known!!!!!  Not one of Adz's greatest points posting before the result is known!!!

Still going Sheldon?

Its like being back at my parents as a kid, and my Mum kept playing Barry Manilow on the stereo......I wish someone would change the record, its very boring.