Tips for Tikay

[claypole]

Tiger out of Masters - hardly a surprise

[TightEnd]

Tiger out of Masters - hardly a surprise

20-Mar   doubleup   Betfair Sportsbook   April-2014   Golf   The Masters   Tiger Woods   10/1   50

Non runner no bet or a loser please?

[Doobs]

Tiger out of Masters - hardly a surprise

20-Mar   doubleup   Betfair Sportsbook   April-2014   Golf   The Masters   Tiger Woods   10/1   50

Non runner no bet or a loser please?

I know it is just psychological and each month doesn't matter, but what a way to start the month.

[tikay]

Tiger out of Masters - hardly a surprise

20-Mar   doubleup   Betfair Sportsbook   April-2014   Golf   The Masters   Tiger Woods   10/1   50

Non runner no bet or a loser please?

Ugh.

Will check tomorrow, as I'm working (again....) tonight, but it's probably a dud bet.

Will report back in the morning.

[aaron1867]

Man Utd now best priced 11/2

[TightEnd]

West Indies have beaten Pakistan to reach the T20WCSF to play Sri lanka, so we have a £25 Pakistan loser

the old Pakistani achilles heel, top order batting, did for them


Much excitement (for me) with the Badree bets

He took 3 for 10 off 4 overs opening the bowling and now has a wicket every 9.6 balls bowled in the tournament

We have 9/2 top WI bowler

with a possible two games to go he has 10, the nearest to him Narine and Santokie have 6

http://stats.espncricinfo.com/world-t20/engine/records/averages/batting_bowling_by_team.html?id=8083;team=4;type=tournament

We have a 33/1 ticket top tournament wicket taker

Imran Tahir 11, Badree 10, Mishra 9, Steyn 9, Ashwin 7, Narine 6 of those still in the tournament

http://stats.espncricinfo.com/world-t20/engine/records/bowling/most_wickets_career.html?id=8083;type=tournament

The key thing is that batsmen are not picking his doosra, the googly that spins the other way...long may it continue

[TightEnd]

Tiger out of Masters - hardly a surprise

20-Mar   doubleup   Betfair Sportsbook   April-2014   Golf   The Masters   Tiger Woods   10/1   50

Non runner no bet or a loser please?

Ugh.

Will check tomorrow, as I'm working (again....) tonight, but it's probably a dud bet.

Will report back in the morning.

makes the 1st time winner bets look better?

i think doubleup has some suggestions outstanding for covers on past winners?

not sure if this news changes any of those david m?

[doubleup]

Tiger out of Masters - hardly a surprise

20-Mar   doubleup   Betfair Sportsbook   April-2014   Golf   The Masters   Tiger Woods   10/1   50

Non runner no bet or a loser please?

Ugh.

Will check tomorrow, as I'm working (again....) tonight, but it's probably a dud bet.

Will report back in the morning.

makes the 1st time winner bets look better?

i think doubleup has some suggestions outstanding for covers on past winners?

not sure if this news changes any of those david m?

I will be very surprised if it isn't bet returned (tho personally I have used a free bet so don't know about that)

Were the cover bets I suggested placed?

Only Zach is still available at the price so that should be placed asap.

edit the bets were


12 ew bubba - return 348 win 96 place (bet now)

10 ew zach - return 340 win 92 place (bet now)

7 ew charl - return win 322 place 86 (bet now)

[Dubai]

Why bother covering? I mean if the original bet is a good one then just have a load on that. And if someone else ew is good value and they happen to be a previous winner have a load on that. But staking to cover on multiple options seems a waste of time, id just let the original good bet run

[redarmi]

I think there is an angle, a tactical one

Evra is suspended and Rafael injured (off at half time v Villa) which gives United Buttner at left back but he is struggling with a hamstring. Looks like Phil Jones at right back with Smalling coming back from an injury, and the now statuesque Vidic in between.

Munich play Mandzukic up top and Ribery-Gotze and Robben as the 3 in a 4-2-3-1, with a lot of the fludity under Guardiola coming from getting these three beyond the focal striker  

Robben and Ribery wide against whoever the full backs are strikes me as where Bayern will do a lot of damage

Robben has 18 in 34 in all comps this season and 3 in 6 in europe

Ribery has 15 in 30, 3 in 6 in europe

Both are 6-1 FGS and around 2-1 anytime

not exactly earth shattering stuff, but was struggling to see the United back 5 restricting them given the selection problems

I also like Bayern -1 at 23/20 BMU

Out of interest what percentage of Bayerns goals would you expect Rooben and Ribery to score tonight? ballpark figure?

[doubleup]

Why bother covering? I mean if the original bet is a good one then just have a load on that. And if someone else ew is good value and they happen to be a previous winner have a load on that. But staking to cover on multiple options seems a waste of time, id just let the original good bet run

no strategy was always to overbet the maiden winner bet and cover each-way to have profitable win and each way book.

[Dubai]

How many previous winners in field? Obv exclude the 1000/1 old boys. How many covering on?

[doubleup]

How many previous winners in field? Obv exclude the 1000/1 old boys. How many covering on?

I've been through this about eight times


The Masters maiden bet strategy was always intended to be an arb of sorts with the added edge of each way bets providing extra value.  I had hoped to leave the bets till nearer the day for offers, but because of injuries to Tiger and now Phil, I think its best just to place a few bets now.

210 maiden winner - return 370  (bet already)

50 tiger - return 550 (bet already)

20 ew AScott - return 260 win 80 place (bet already)

24 phil prob 18 - return 432 wait till next week

12 ew bubba - return 348 win 96 place (bet now)

10 ew zach - return 340 win 92 place (bet now)

7 ew charl - return win 322 place 86 (bet now)


£20 various other 200 plussers (bet next week)

So total bet would be £402

worst scenarios would be AScott or maiden winner and no each way bets.  Best scenarios tiger plays and wins and EWs get placed OR tiger doesn't play anyone but AScott wins and a some place payouts.

[Dubai]

Apologies don't read thread everyday

[Dubai]

Think id just be happy with £210 to win £160. Struggling to see why we would do anything other than let that run?