Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

another bet

another skewed market

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/county-championship-div-2/county-championship-division-2/top-batsman

graeme smith installed at 9-1 is ludicrous...not a prolific run scorer these days

of the rest the hampshire and derbyshire lads have every chance. Moeen ali could miss time playing for england, as well

wayne madsen finished 2nd in div 1 last year scoring over 1200 runs for a side that won 3 out of 16 games

http://stats.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine/records/batting/most_runs_career.html?id=7905;type=tournament

going to take 1400 or so to win this

http://stats.espncricinfo.com/county-championship-div2-2013/engine/records/batting/most_runs_career.html?id=7906;type=tournament

yet we can have him at 14-1 william hill to win this, £20 outright

Ilike this bet Rich.Madsen is certainly a contender.

Good season long sweat for the next free bet we get from Billy Hills IMO.

this is a good idea

if we have a free bet coming, and we should over three days of aintree, yes?

then use it for this, please

[tikay]

Home for a free bet?

Derbyshire 7-1 to win County Championship Div Two (which starts in 19 days) Wlliam Hill

fourth favourites behind surrey, hants and essex. At least 4 of the 9 teams in this are genuine outsiders due to financial considerations, squad depth and strength. derbyshire have just produced their 8th profit in 9 years and have no such concerns

market skewed because surrey have big names, but actually they are rebuilding with youngsters and can be opposed at the price

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/county-championship-div-2/county-championship-division-2/winner

Derbyshire just got relegated last season, actually a very creditable performance, have one of the best domestic batsmen in madsen, an overseas in chanderpaul who churns out runs and a lot of young talent (particularly spinners, which is unusual for them)

Most importantly of all they play at Derby (yes, they do) which produces result wickets.....and this is vital with 24 points for winning a game with max bonus points compared to a maxmium of 11 for the draw

you need to win games, and surrey play at the oval, which is not prepared to produce result wickets. hampshire at the ageas also, only result wickets in the second half of the season when they dry out to take spin


secondary bet £15 e/w derbyshire william hill 7-1 1/5 top 3. I have them in my top three every day of the week at this stage

--

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/county-championship-div-1/county-championship-division-1/winner

cc1 is genuinely tough, i could make a case for six of the teams in a really tight heat, and i won't be recommending a bet this season. hopefully gherkin has some ideas.   

A further bet please

Tim Groenewald Top Division two wicket taker £10 e/w BMU 16/1 1/4 1,2,3,4

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/county-championship-div-2/county-championship-division-2/top-bowler

last season he took 45 wickets in div one.

going to take 65+ in div 2 to win this

http://stats.espncricinfo.com/county-championship-div2-2013/engine/records/bowling/most_wickets_career.html?id=7906;type=tournament

4 of last year's top 5 wicket takers are out of the division, promoted or retired

groenewald is more than double the price of the favourite, the Australian Michael Hogan down at Glamorgan.

Derby is a result wicket, div two batting strength is weaker - lots of young players in 5-6 of the teams, and this market is also skewed by putting guys who can't win this (dernbach, tremlett, ajmal etc) in at lowish prices as they are big names for the bigger teams

If you wanted a portfolio Groenewald, David Masters, James Tomlinson at 16's and Tim Linley at 25's against the field.

--

another bet

another skewed market

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/county-championship-div-2/county-championship-division-2/top-batsman

graeme smith installed at 9-1 is ludicrous...not a prolific run scorer these days

of the rest the hampshire and derbyshire lads have every chance. Moeen ali could miss time playing for england, as well

wayne madsen finished 2nd in div 1 last year scoring over 1200 runs for a side that won 3 out of 16 games

http://stats.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine/records/batting/most_runs_career.html?id=7905;type=tournament

going to take 1400 or so to win this

http://stats.espncricinfo.com/county-championship-div2-2013/engine/records/batting/most_runs_career.html?id=7906;type=tournament

yet we can have him at 14-1 william hill to win this, £20 outright


second batsman bet, and a bigger one

Leicestershire were by far the weakest county last year yet Ned Eckersley broke through, scoring nearly 1300 runs in a mostly losing side. he's only 24, and should be poached by a bigger county after this season

this year, while unlikely to be at the top end, they should at least be more competitive (a lot of off field ructions last year had the side thinking of the end of the season by about june) and Eckersley is priced up at 25-1

We can get 1/4 the odds top 5

Magnificent bet, famous last words

£30 e/w Eckersley top division two run scorer bet victor


--

i choose division two because

a) division one is better known (efficient markets)
b) division two is unfashionable (can be mis-priced)
c) i watch a lot of it along with three pensioners and their dogs, and i'll take my knowledge against the office junior at buttermeup on this

Bugger.

I pre-ejaculated, placed all three bets, & only then then I saw Boo's "Free Bet" idea.

Anyway, it's done now. We can always go in again, if need be, or if a Free Bet arises, I'll take the paid bet Off-Thread (I'd have it for myself anyway), & do the Freebie.


Exactly as specified......

3 BETS PLACED

[TightEnd]

recent records of favouritess in Gr1s on Thursdays at Aintree: Only 1/10 in Betfred Bowl, 2/10 in Aintree Hurdle & 1/5 in Manifesto Novices Chase.

Intuitively, is this because winners from Cheltenham are priced up to win, or Cheltenham form is taken to carry on to Aintree and often does not do so?

(different track characteristics, tired horses after cheltenham, possibly different ground)?


ice cream question (a little knowledge and applying logic to it is a dangerous thing).

with this in mind, could we take on dynaste, the new one and oscar whisky and profit?

[tikay]

Psycho appointed as Nottingham Forest Manager - Marky got the lot again, I suppose?

[arbboy]

recent records of favouritess in Gr1s on Thursdays at Aintree: Only 1/10 in Betfred Bowl, 2/10 in Aintree Hurdle & 1/5 in Manifesto Novices Chase.

Intuitively, is this because winners from Cheltenham are priced up to win, or Cheltenham form is taken to carry on to Aintree and often does not do so?

(different track characteristics, tired horses after cheltenham, possibly different ground)?


ice cream question (a little knowledge and applying logic to it is a dangerous thing).

with this in mind, could we take on dynaste, the new one and oscar whisky and profit?

I wouldn't imagine there is a great deal of downside taking this view.

[Marky147]

Psycho appointed as Nottingham Forest Manager - Marky got the lot again, I suppose?

I think Red got the lot, but I steered clear.

[TightEnd]

recent records of favouritess in Gr1s on Thursdays at Aintree: Only 1/10 in Betfred Bowl, 2/10 in Aintree Hurdle & 1/5 in Manifesto Novices Chase.

Intuitively, is this because winners from Cheltenham are priced up to win, or Cheltenham form is taken to carry on to Aintree and often does not do so?

(different track characteristics, tired horses after cheltenham, possibly different ground)?


ice cream question (a little knowledge and applying logic to it is a dangerous thing).

with this in mind, could we take on dynaste, the new one and oscar whisky and profit?

I wouldn't imagine there is a great deal of downside taking this view.

So, Silvanaco Conti got trashed up the hill at Cheltenham in a rough race, Dynaste put it all in winning at Cheltenham and tikay's favourite airline entrepreneur pulled First Lieutenant out of Cheltenham and it comes here fresh having been very close to bobs worth at Xmas

why wouldn't i be backing first lieutenant if some of the trends above are held to be reasonable (notably you don't know how horses follow up at aintree after cheltenham but many don't)?

[Doobs]

recent records of favouritess in Gr1s on Thursdays at Aintree: Only 1/10 in Betfred Bowl, 2/10 in Aintree Hurdle & 1/5 in Manifesto Novices Chase.

Intuitively, is this because winners from Cheltenham are priced up to win, or Cheltenham form is taken to carry on to Aintree and often does not do so?

(different track characteristics, tired horses after cheltenham, possibly different ground)?


ice cream question (a little knowledge and applying logic to it is a dangerous thing).

with this in mind, could we take on dynaste, the new one and oscar whisky and profit?

I wouldn't imagine there is a great deal of downside taking this view.

As above

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=56581.msg1923478#msg1923478

We should definitely lay The New One at 1.39 as above.  Probably up it a touch from what we have backed and lay to lose £50.  We have max liability below £20.

I have subscribed to Neil's tips, so have already read his Betfair Bowl tip.  It is the one I have backed, and backed last year, and was hinting at above when I said that when horses are similar prices I lean to the non Cheltenham runner.  I won't put it up now though, as I wasn't going to put it on here before reading his post.

Oscar Whiskey fell at the first at Cheltenham, and has won at Aintree before, so think he is a reasonable favourite.  

    

[Tal]

Apparently chandimal has dropped himself and malinga really is captain and it isn't a joke like we all thought.

What's going on?!

[BorntoBubble]

Mossey joe £25 2/1 WH 3:40 money back if 2nd price boost if tighty can get on now?

[TightEnd]

Apparently chandimal has dropped himself and malinga really is captain and it isn't a joke like we all thought.

What's going on?!

chandimal was banned for the last game and malinga captained superbly. great motivational stuff and v good tactically

seems a nice unselfish decision to me if chandimal doesn't think he is part of the best eleven#


meanwhile....could we get Paulinho some TEFL lessons to get him back in the team please?


http://www.sportinglife.com/football/news/article/165/9245950/premier-league-tottenham-boss-tim-sherwood-challenges-paulinho-to-fight-for-place
 

[TightEnd]

Mossey joe £25 2/1 WH 3:40 money back if 2nd price boost if tighty can get on now?

doobs, yes?

[BorntoBubble]

Channel 4 races tomorrow for WH mobile offer

2.00
2.30
3.05
3.40
4.15

2.30 Dynaste 15/8 Betfair 2.92

3.05 The New One 2/5 Betfair 1.39

3.40 Mossey Joe 5/4 Betfair 2.66

Can we do the 1st two ASAP please Tikay

Can we try to do the 3rd one just before the race as the price is too far from Betfair at the moment. It will be close 10 mins before the off.

This was from yesterday tighty if you need further backing

[Doobs]

Mossey joe £25 2/1 WH 3:40 money back if 2nd price boost if tighty can get on now?

doobs, yes?

got to be better than waiting.  gogo

[TightEnd]

Mossey joe £25 2/1 WH 3:40 money back if 2nd price boost if tighty can get on now?

doobs, yes?

got to be better than waiting.  gogo

BET PLACED

MosseyJoe £25 win 2-1 (price boost) money back as free bet if second