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[rfgqqabc]

wow, man united are 11-10 tomorrow?

Newcastle are absolutely awful at the moment, seriously terrible.


Remy is out, HBA refuses to play for Pardew and Cisse-De Jong are worse than useless.  Asides from the Stoke match where we played with 9 men (we were losing 1-0 before this) we have only scored 14 goals at home all week. 6 of those goals come from Remy. In our last 7 games at home our scores have been.

Without Remy in our team, we have scored 1 goal all season (1-0 94th minute win vs Crystal Palace)



The one thing against Man United is that they may rest players for the Bayern match as the league is out of the question but we have a huge injury list.

Arguably our 3 best and most consitent players Krul, Debuchy and Remy are all injured. Sissoko is also out injured whilst HBA will probably not play either. Apparantly Pardew will play Dan Gosling who has basically not played for the last 3 years.

Man United may have Rooney missing but they have won to nil in their last 4 away games.

When we beat Man United 1-0 earlier in season 5 of those players have now been sold or are injured.

All in?

opinions.....

If they were at home, but away 11/10 doesn't seem massive to me.  Man U dire at times this season too.  Man U got a more important match coming up.  Doesn't look a max for me.  

Would we be having a max on them at 2/5 if man u were at home?  I think not.  Case closed.  Its the same bet effectively.

I dont quite agree with that.

United have been dire at home this year but the best team in the league away.

I still dont think its a max bet though

sample sizes ftw!!!!  

Applies to the whole season and not just the away form?

11/10 doesn't feel that big but im fairly clueless.

Teams are not better away from home than at home.  It's totally illogical to think that and it's talked about every year about the 1 or 2 teams who have better away records.  No mention is ever made of the dozen's of teams who fit in with the logical (proven over decades of data) pattern of having much better home form than away form.  It's nothing but variance each and every year when it happens to a team esp the further up the leagues you go where home advantage becomes more and more a factor in the price of a match.

Yeah definitely. I was just saying the home form has likely been a bit off as well as the away form being above the norm.

[arbboy]

wow, man united are 11-10 tomorrow?

Newcastle are absolutely awful at the moment, seriously terrible.


Remy is out, HBA refuses to play for Pardew and Cisse-De Jong are worse than useless.  Asides from the Stoke match where we played with 9 men (we were losing 1-0 before this) we have only scored 14 goals at home all week. 6 of those goals come from Remy. In our last 7 games at home our scores have been.

Without Remy in our team, we have scored 1 goal all season (1-0 94th minute win vs Crystal Palace)



The one thing against Man United is that they may rest players for the Bayern match as the league is out of the question but we have a huge injury list.

Arguably our 3 best and most consitent players Krul, Debuchy and Remy are all injured. Sissoko is also out injured whilst HBA will probably not play either. Apparantly Pardew will play Dan Gosling who has basically not played for the last 3 years.

Man United may have Rooney missing but they have won to nil in their last 4 away games.

When we beat Man United 1-0 earlier in season 5 of those players have now been sold or are injured.

All in?

opinions.....

If they were at home, but away 11/10 doesn't seem massive to me.  Man U dire at times this season too.  Man U got a more important match coming up.  Doesn't look a max for me.  

Would we be having a max on them at 2/5 if man u were at home?  I think not.  Case closed.  Its the same bet effectively.

I dont quite agree with that.

United have been dire at home this year but the best team in the league away.

I still dont think its a max bet though

sample sizes ftw!!!!  

Applies to the whole season and not just the away form?

11/10 doesn't feel that big but im fairly clueless.

Teams are not better away from home than at home.  It's totally illogical to think that and it's talked about every year about the 1 or 2 teams who have better away records.  No mention is ever made of the dozen's of teams who fit in with the logical (proven over decades of data) pattern of having much better home form than away form.  It's nothing but variance each and every year when it happens to a team esp the further up the leagues you go where home advantage becomes more and more a factor in the price of a match.

Yeah definitely. I was just saying the home form has likely been a bit off as well as the away form being above the norm.

variance across a tiny sample size of 15 games.  nothing else.

[mondatoo]

wow, man united are 11-10 tomorrow?

Newcastle are absolutely awful at the moment, seriously terrible.


Remy is out, HBA refuses to play for Pardew and Cisse-De Jong are worse than useless.  Asides from the Stoke match where we played with 9 men (we were losing 1-0 before this) we have only scored 14 goals at home all week. 6 of those goals come from Remy. In our last 7 games at home our scores have been.

Without Remy in our team, we have scored 1 goal all season (1-0 94th minute win vs Crystal Palace)

0-1
0-2
0-3
0-4
1-0 (terrible villa team)
1-0 (terrible palace team, 94th minute goal)
0-3


West Ham   0-0   No scorer
Fulham     1-0   Ben Arfa 86
Hull City     2-3   Remy 10,44
Liverpool     2-2   Cabaye 23, Dummett 56
Chelsea    2-0   Gouffran 68, Remy 89
Norwich City     2-1   Remy 2, Gouffran 38
West Brom     2-1   Gouffran 36 Sissoko 57
Southampton     1-1   Gouffran 27   
Stoke City    5-1   Remy 44,56 Gouffran 48
Cabaye 66 Cisse 80pen
Arsenal    0-1   No scorer
Man City   0-2   No scorer
mackems   0-3   No scorer
Spurs   0-4   No scorer
Aston Villa   1-0   Remy 90+2
Crystal Palace     1-0   Cisse 90+4
Everton   0-3   No scorer


The one thing against Man United is that they may rest players for the Bayern match as the league is out of the question but we have a huge injury list.

Arguably our 3 best and most consitent players Krul, Debuchy and Remy are all injured. Sissoko is also out injured whilst HBA will probably not play either. Apparantly Pardew will play Dan Gosling who has basically not played for the last 3 years.

Man United may have Rooney missing but they have won to nil in their last 4 away games.

When we beat Man United 1-0 earlier in season 5 of those players have now been sold or are injured.

All in?

opinions.....

If they were at home, but away 11/10 doesn't seem massive to me.  Man U dire at times this season too.  Man U got a more important match coming up.  Doesn't look a max for me. 

Would we be having a max on them at 2/5 if man u were at home?  I think not.  Case closed.  Its the same bet effectively.

I dont quite agree with that.

United have been dire at home this year but the best team in the league away.

I still dont think its a max bet though

sample sizes ftw!!!! 

I'm all for sample sizes

What sample size do you think it takes to have an effect on: Footballers, Managers, Fans though ? I'd say very little. Football is such a ridic Sport when it comes to such things.

[Marky147]

Tikay's favourite female there on TV

[Tal]

Teams are not better away from home than at home.  It's totally illogical to think that and it's talked about every year about the 1 or 2 teams who have better away records.  No mention is ever made of the dozen's of teams who fit in with the logical (proven over decades of data) pattern of having much better home form than away form.  It's nothing but variance each and every year when it happens to a team esp the further up the leagues you go where home advantage becomes more and more a factor in the price of a match.


I simply don't agree with that, arbboy. Some teams are set up better to play on the break and will often find themselves able to get better results on the road than when there is an expectation to get a win at home. Yes, there is variance, but surely it is simplistic to say it is the only answer and that the whole thing is made up by a media that don't understand mathematics?

[arbboy]

My EPL bets today if anyone is interested all at VC.  Recommend £50 on each.

Hull 15/8 at home to swansea - Can't believe how big this price is.  I appreciate Hull are probably over achieving and Swansea the opposite but i cant have this difference in ability between the teams.  Would Swansea really be 4/7 at home to Hull?

Villa 23/20 at home to Fulham - Price implies the teams are of equal ability.  Even without Benteke i don't think this is true

Norwich 29/20 at home to West Brom - Price implies WBA are a better team than Norwich which i can't get.  I think Norwich have been underrated for most of the season by the market.

[BigAdz]

Teams are not better away from home than at home.  It's totally illogical to think that and it's talked about every year about the 1 or 2 teams who have better away records.  No mention is ever made of the dozen's of teams who fit in with the logical (proven over decades of data) pattern of having much better home form than away form.  It's nothing but variance each and every year when it happens to a team esp the further up the leagues you go where home advantage becomes more and more a factor in the price of a match.


I simply don't agree with that, arbboy. Some teams are set up better to play on the break and will often find themselves able to get better results on the road than when there is an expectation to get a win at home. Yes, there is variance, but surely it is simplistic to say it is the only answer and that the whole thing is made up by a media that don't understand mathematics?

Yup. Simply dont understand using sample sizes to gauge an individual match, but I am no maths wizard. I understand applying sample sizes for seasonal bets, but not one game where any amount of measures can be applied from senior squad vs a reserve squad to home team all playing in clogs. You just cant generalize according to stats.

[arbboy]

Teams are not better away from home than at home.  It's totally illogical to think that and it's talked about every year about the 1 or 2 teams who have better away records.  No mention is ever made of the dozen's of teams who fit in with the logical (proven over decades of data) pattern of having much better home form than away form.  It's nothing but variance each and every year when it happens to a team esp the further up the leagues you go where home advantage becomes more and more a factor in the price of a match.


I simply don't agree with that, arbboy. Some teams are set up better to play on the break and will often find themselves able to get better results on the road than when there is an expectation to get a win at home. Yes, there is variance, but surely it is simplistic to say it is the only answer and that the whole thing is made up by a media that don't understand mathematics?

Feel free to make your fortune then opposing these 'awful home teams' when they go off too short at home and back them when they are too big away from home then.  Let me know how you get on over a 10 year sample of doing this.  Also can you let me know which teams will be poor at home/better away from home for next season before the season starts rather than rely on the league tables data half way through the season which proves nothing but the variance involved in tiny samples.  I didn't hear anyone at the start of the season saying Villa and/or Manure would be better away from home than at home.  Reason why? Because it's totally illogical to think that.

[sonour]

http://www.stanjames.com/UK/541/betting#action=market-group-list&market-group=1240378.2&bo-navigation=146036.2,160873.2

be quick
get on trifolium
9/2

can lay on betfair after at 5.0 if need be

can't use stanjames

somewhere else?

what's the reasoning behind the bet?

Adz says its good.
9/2 gone. Beat betfair by a good amount.

ok.

sell it to us next time and we'll try not to miss it. why does adz say its good?...etc etc

If it's beating betfair in a very popular market at 5.5 to 5.0 is it not an auto bet which can even be layed?

Agree

[exstream]

Supposedly Rodriguez out for a long time with knee injury destroying hopes of a top 4 finish in goalscorers.

[BorntoBubble]

My EPL bets today if anyone is interested all at VC.  Recommend £50 on each.

Hull 15/8 at home to swansea - Can't believe how big this price is.  I appreciate Hull are probably over achieving and Swansea the opposite but i cant have this difference in ability between the teams.  Would Swansea really be 4/7 at home to Hull?

Villa 23/20 at home to Fulham - Price implies the teams are of equal ability.  Even without Benteke i don't think this is true

Norwich 29/20 at home to West Brom - Price implies WBA are a better team than Norwich which i can't get.  I think Norwich have been underrated for most of the season by the market.

bugger. These were the three teams i put in my free VC treble today! Sorry for boking your bets arbboy

[Rubbish2407]

I'm doing 1-0's for Cardiff, Villa, Norwich, Man Utd, Hull and 2-1 for Chelsea.

I wont be posting for a while after today as I'll be a millionaire.

Thank you.

[Tal]

Teams are not better away from home than at home.  It's totally illogical to think that and it's talked about every year about the 1 or 2 teams who have better away records.  No mention is ever made of the dozen's of teams who fit in with the logical (proven over decades of data) pattern of having much better home form than away form.  It's nothing but variance each and every year when it happens to a team esp the further up the leagues you go where home advantage becomes more and more a factor in the price of a match.


I simply don't agree with that, arbboy. Some teams are set up better to play on the break and will often find themselves able to get better results on the road than when there is an expectation to get a win at home. Yes, there is variance, but surely it is simplistic to say it is the only answer and that the whole thing is made up by a media that don't understand mathematics?

Feel free to make your fortune then opposing these 'awful home teams' when they go off too short at home and back them when they are too big away from home then.  Let me know how you get on over a 10 year sample of doing this.  Also can you let me know which teams will be poor at home/better away from home for next season before the season starts rather than rely on the league tables data half way through the season which proves nothing but the variance involved in tiny samples.  I didn't hear anyone at the start of the season saying Villa and/or Manure would be better away from home than at home.  Reason why? Because it's totally illogical to think that.

Could you phrase that a little more angrily, please?

If all teams were set up equally with identical tactics but with different standard players, we would see swings and swongs before, eventually, the trend would be towards a league table in line with expectation, based on ability.

But that's not how football is. There are variables all over the place. The savviest punters do best because they understand these variables and they take prices when they recognise the odds setter hasn't apportioned the appropriate weight to something. The variables include how a manager sets up a team against a specific type of opponent, injuries and how injuries affect system. You know all of this, though, else you wouldn't be so successful.

It is just a difference of opinion from my end. Nothing more.

[Doobs]

Teams are not better away from home than at home.  It's totally illogical to think that and it's talked about every year about the 1 or 2 teams who have better away records.  No mention is ever made of the dozen's of teams who fit in with the logical (proven over decades of data) pattern of having much better home form than away form.  It's nothing but variance each and every year when it happens to a team esp the further up the leagues you go where home advantage becomes more and more a factor in the price of a match.


I simply don't agree with that, arbboy. Some teams are set up better to play on the break and will often find themselves able to get better results on the road than when there is an expectation to get a win at home. Yes, there is variance, but surely it is simplistic to say it is the only answer and that the whole thing is made up by a media that don't understand mathematics?

Why would you think the average sports reporter understands maths and probability? This is a poker forum and there are some pretty ignorant statements around mathematics and probability appear at times. I don't expect to get a job on a national newspaper, because my English just isn't up to it, similarly your average reporter isn't ever going to make a living in sports betting, poker or any other field where maths is anything other than a nice to have.

[arbboy]

Teams are not better away from home than at home.  It's totally illogical to think that and it's talked about every year about the 1 or 2 teams who have better away records.  No mention is ever made of the dozen's of teams who fit in with the logical (proven over decades of data) pattern of having much better home form than away form.  It's nothing but variance each and every year when it happens to a team esp the further up the leagues you go where home advantage becomes more and more a factor in the price of a match.


I simply don't agree with that, arbboy. Some teams are set up better to play on the break and will often find themselves able to get better results on the road than when there is an expectation to get a win at home. Yes, there is variance, but surely it is simplistic to say it is the only answer and that the whole thing is made up by a media that don't understand mathematics?

Feel free to make your fortune then opposing these 'awful home teams' when they go off too short at home and back them when they are too big away from home then.  Let me know how you get on over a 10 year sample of doing this.  Also can you let me know which teams will be poor at home/better away from home for next season before the season starts rather than rely on the league tables data half way through the season which proves nothing but the variance involved in tiny samples.  I didn't hear anyone at the start of the season saying Villa and/or Manure would be better away from home than at home.  Reason why? Because it's totally illogical to think that.

Could you phrase that a little more angrily, please?

If all teams were set up equally with identical tactics but with different standard players, we would see swings and swongs before, eventually, the trend would be towards a league table in line with expectation, based on ability.

But that's not how football is. There are variables all over the place. The savviest punters do best because they understand these variables and they take prices when they recognise the odds setter hasn't apportioned the appropriate weight to something. You know all of this, though, else you wouldn't be so successful.

It is just a difference of opinion from my end. Nothing more.

Didn't mean to come across as angry.  You are stating certain teams play better away from home than at home.  The only thing i can see being used for this statement is the current league table which involves a tiny sample of games .  If you have this view can you tell me in advance which teams will play better away from home than at home for next season before the season actually starts if it's that easy to know which teams will play better away from home than at home.