Tips for Tikay

[arbboy]

16/1 shot is out in trouble.  Holdem through to final. First 2 go through

Result here.

http://www.gbgb.org.uk/resultsRace.aspx?raceID=285473-6&racedate=05/04/2014

Result of 2nd semi when the two rags qualified

http://www.gbgb.org.uk/resultsRace.aspx?raceID=285473-7&racedate=05/04/2014

Two jollies through in the 3rd semi final so we should have a bit of value at 11/2.  There were co favs of 3 virtually in the race and 2 of them went through.  The ante post fav has gone out though out of those 3 co favs in the 3rd semi.

http://www.gbgb.org.uk/resultsRace.aspx?raceID=285473-8&racedate=05/04/2014

We need Holdem to get t6 ideally in the draw for final

[TightEnd]

Very good results for the handicaps today barring Newcastle (wish somebody had tipped that result).  Southampton losing as important as Hull and Palace winning.  Haven't done the maths yet, but going to be sweating p3.

Just run my spreadsheet.

Current projected handicap table

Liverpool 104
Everton 101
PALACE 91
Southampton 91
HULL 90
Stoke 90
Arsenal 88
Spurs 87
Man C 87
NEWCASTLE 86

We had a carefully considered bet an absolute punt on Palace at 100/1 (£10 e/w).

Outstanding fixtures

Villa (H)
Everton (A)
West Ham (A)
Man City (H)
Liverpool (H)
Fulham (A)

Hull have
Arsenal (H)
Fulham (A)
Villa (A)
Man U (A)
Everton (H)

Southampton and Stoke have also got easier run ins.  No Point in considering Newcastle.  They are scoring in line with expectations this season an absolute joke outfit, run by a bunch of clowns.

Thank you

the hull, palace, newcastle handicap bets were 1/4 odds e/w four places were they not?

(we're having to rebuild parts of the spreadsheet and this will save me some time if you know!)

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on the Month £188.98

Outstanding Bets £3915.08

free bets to use ONE WILLIAM HILL USE BY 10TH APRIL

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=23

A loss of £32 on Saturday

Munster covered the handicap in tonking Toulouse +£20

This meant both Medard and Gear (who scored a try) could not finish top competition try scorer -£20

Zarkandar not in the frame at Antree -£25

the outsider Scottish dog did not make the greyhound derby final -£7.68


This was a busy Saturday, and as I fancy a lie in before the deepstack final day, i better crack through it now. It was quite a frustrating day for many of our longer term positions. In order that I wrote them down

- Leicester promoted. Wth six games to go are 9 points clear to secure the championship and our chunky bet

- Man C and chelsea winning good news for the anti liverpool bet and we really need arsenal to win at everton tomorrow for the flickering embers of the top three bet

- Rodriguez's injury horrible timing for him pre-World cup and for us holding 200-1 e/w golden boot and him equal 4th currently

- Good days for Hull and Palace. We have what looked a really nice bet all season on Hull to finish top promoted club, and they are only 2 points clear of Palace who have a game in hand. it has tightened right up and could go to the last game

- Handicaps: doobs has explained above. right in the hunt on Palace and Hull, less so on the worst team ever to grace the Premier league, even worse than swindon, barnsley and derby. thats Newcastle in 9th

- watford conceded an 88th minute equaliser to burnley, and remain 12th a point into the top half. tense one!

- bournemouth beat QPR and are 5pts off 6th with 6 games to go

- barnsley drew with brighton, and mathematically can finish top half and top S Yorks club but won't

- rhodes scored for blackburn. win only that bet though and he is a way behind McCormack

- unfortunately grabban scored again for bournemouth and our injured duo ings/vokes will be out of the top 4 soon

- winnall scored for scunthorpe and is now 1/25 league 2 golden boot

- good day for the bet of the century as the mk dons won at coventry and peterinconsistentborough lost at wolves

- not a good day for the tired sheffield no hopers who drew, and esokralsall who lost

- tranmere won away, to ease their relegation concerns

- Bale scored (a good one i gather) at sociedad in la liga. now 13 goals. we need under 18. six games to go. tense!

- the KC Royals won, the orioles lost. a mixed start to the season for both. yankees still playing as I write

- mercedes 1-2 on the grid for bahrain. bottas starts 3rd. decent day for our f1 portfolio, hamilton winning would be nicer still

- clermont, saracens and munster made the heineken cup semis. ulster were down to 14 men for most of the game at home to saracens, heroically almost won, but ashton scored two tries for saracens. nalaga did not score so ashton leads 9-5 and hopes are fading there

- derbyshire were due to start their lvcc campaign tomorrow but the amtch has been postponed due to http://www.derbyshireccc.com/dccc/news-and-features/news-headlines/1334-club-statement. county cricket is quite a small family and i've met tom. a sobering statement.  

- as we have heard holdemspy has made the scottish greyhound final next weekend

[Doobs]

Very good results for the handicaps today barring Newcastle (wish somebody had tipped that result).  Southampton losing as important as Hull and Palace winning.  Haven't done the maths yet, but going to be sweating p3.

Just run my spreadsheet.

Current projected handicap table

Liverpool 104
Everton 101
PALACE 91
Southampton 91
HULL 90
Stoke 90
Arsenal 88
Spurs 87
Man C 87
NEWCASTLE 86

We had a carefully considered bet an absolute punt on Palace at 100/1 (£10 e/w).

Outstanding fixtures

Villa (H)
Everton (A)
West Ham (A)
Man City (H)
Liverpool (H)
Fulham (A)

Hull have
Arsenal (H)
Fulham (A)
Villa (A)
Man U (A)
Everton (H)

Southampton and Stoke have also got easier run ins.  No Point in considering Newcastle.  They are scoring in line with expectations this season an absolute joke outfit, run by a bunch of clowns.

Thank you

the hull, palace, newcastle handicap bets were 1/4 odds e/w four places were they not?

(we're having to rebuild parts of the spreadsheet and this will save me some time if you know!)

I think the early in the season ones (Hull/Cardiff) were quarter first 4, Palace and Newcastle are top 3.  So Palace 3rd, Hull 4th is good.

[arbboy]

Holdem Spy 7/4 fav with the sponsors ladbrokes for the final next Saturday night on ch212 on sky racing post greyhound TV.

[TightEnd]

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[Omm]

Terrible news that Tighty about the lad and more importantly his dad, thoughts are with him, family and team.

[Omm]

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/top-6-finish

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/to-make-the-playoffs

3six5 market on to reach the play offs have a few teams generally a few points higher than the firms doing top 6 finish Ie Bournemouth is 11-1 compared to best price 8-1 with paddy. Any value in any of these as they stand. I know we are on Bournemouth at 16's but might be something in the others.

More so is the 8/11 value for Reading considering the others are 4/9 and 4/7

Also every price beats bf from what I can see although the market doesn't have much money in it.

[Omm]

Although Reading seem to have a tough run in having to play the top 2 as well as  Wigan and Bournemouth so it might be that even 1.73 is not that great a price ( but it does beat bf at 1.31) .

Questions:

1)is Reading an auto bet at 1.73 because of the bf price or do we take form and games to play into consideration?
2) at the 365 prices is backing all the other four teams on 58 points +EV?

[TightEnd]

the PL table since Palace appointed Pulis

9 wins and 3 draws, 17 goals in 21 games, only conceded 18

the ultimate "unders" manager

heroic stuff, really.

will never receive the plaudits he deserves, will he?

[arbboy]

the PL table since Palace appointed Pulis

9 wins and 3 draws, 17 goals in 21 games, only conceded 18

the ultimate "unders" manager

heroic stuff, really.

will never receive the plaudits he deserves, will he?

pulis =stokesfinest big part of building my bankroll backing unders for years in pulis game's.  Has to be the best defensive coach in the game.  Imagine what he could do with decent defenders?

This is the 2004/5 season when i first started betting for a living.  under 1.5 in stoke games was routinely 5/2 or 11/4 on shop coupons virtually every week.

C   1   Sunderland   46   29   7   10   76   41   +35   94
P   2   Wigan Athletic   46   25   12   9   79   35   +44   87
    3   Ipswich Town   46   24   13   9   85   56   +29   85
    4   Derby County   46   22   10   14   71   60   +11   76
    5   Preston North End   46   21   12   13   67   58   +9   75
P   6   West Ham United   46   21   10   15   66   56   +10   73
    7   Reading   46   19   13   14   51   44   +7   70
    8   Sheffield United   46   18   13   15   57   56   +1   67
    9   Wolverhampton Wanderers   46   15   21   10   72   59   +13   66
    10   Millwall   46   18   12   16   51   45   +6   66
    11   Queens Park Rangers   46   17   11   18   54   58   −4   62
    12   Stoke City   46   17   10   19   36   38   −2   61
    13   Burnley   46   15   15   16   38   39   −1   60
    14   Leeds United   46   14   18   14   49   52   −3   60
    15   Leicester City   46   12   21   13   49   46   +3   57
    16   Cardiff City   46   13   15   18   48   51   −3   54
    17   Plymouth Argyle   46   14   11   21   52   64   −12   53
    18   Watford   46   12   16   18   52   59   −7   52
    19   Coventry City   46   13   13   20   61   73   −12   52
    20   Brighton & Hove Albion   46   13   12   21   40   65   −25   51
    21   Crewe Alexandra   46   12   14   20   66   86   −20   50
R   22   Gillingham   46   12   14   20   45   66   −21   50
R   23   Nottingham Forest   46   9   17   20   42   66   −24   44
R   24   Rotherham United   46   5   14   27   35   69   −34   29

[BorntoBubble]

But what was the sample size?

[tikay]

arboy's bagged us a shore thing for next weekend so will ship tikay the winnings next sunday * Hopefully

Hopefully......!

Thank you for assisting.

How much do I owe you, please?

Send me some Bank Details, and I'll sort you out.

Thanks again.

[arbboy]

But what was the sample size?

8 seasons 500 odd games!!!  Nice gag!

[BigAdz]

Seriously this Newcastle team is the worst team there has ever been in the premiership (this current line up and performances) not sure I'm happy or not that I bottled betting an insane amount on man united to win. I was pretty close to doing it but bottled it with the Rooney exclusion. It would have been 20x bigger than any bet I'd ever made but perhaps too stupid and degen.

Seriously though would just lay newcastle in every upcoming match. We have basically no players who need to impress for the old cup, were guaranteed safety and we have a lot of injuries.

I feel abit stupid when I post here as I really can't say what value is or isn't because I just don't get it, so apologies on that but I don't post very often and it's usually always about Newcastle that I spend probably 3-5 hours a week "studying"

Pretty sure they would be a fav to beat Derby 07/08.

I think he means worst Newcastle team.

They aren't even that. We were far, far, far, worse the year we went down.

no way, have you compared the results? asides from a game where we played vs 9 men we have scored 14 goals at home all season. Weve been beaten 3-0 or worse about 5-6 times at home this season.

Points weve gained have been incredibly lucky. Fortunate to play against a v bad Man United side and win 1-0, fortunate to beat Spurs away when they had something like 25 shots on target, etc etc etc.

Carroll, Obafemi Martins, Enrique, Nolan, Owen, Bassong, Milner, Colocini, Beye, Butt, Joey Barton

theres no way they are "way, way worse" than Gosling, Williamson, Dummett, Cisse, De Jong et al.

I think weve won something like 4-5 games since the start of 2012 when Cabaye hasnt been in the team.

Im not sure who was in that Derby team that Arrboy spoke about but this current crop of talentless invididuals combined with our joke of a manager would push them close im sure.

It wasn't that long ago you were tipping them to win the league.  They are in 9th, well clear of last.   Admittedly they clearly got tonked today, but the reality must be somewhere between world beaters and worst in the premiership?  Even today the stats don't really suggest 0-4 was about right.  I haven't seen the game, but if you looked at possession, shots, corners etc you wouldn't be guessing 0-4. 

it just shows how much of a shit manager pardew is.

we had HBA who at the time created more chances than any other player in the premiership and looked certain to start for France in the world cup. He now gets 15 minutes a week for us.

we had Cabaye who was the in form attacking central midfielder in the premiership scoring and creating tonnes of goals. Our manager-chairman sold and didnt replace him.

we had remy who had a hugely impressive record be made to look v average.

we had cisse who was previously the most prolific striker in the league go on the follow... 270 minutes without a PL goal  (ending a 350 minute run since the last one and 1,209 minutes since the one before).

we had one of the most talented full backs in the premiership replaced by probably the worst left back in the premiership, Dummett.

Our second most creative player, Marveux didnt get on the bench for the first 25 games of the season and gets 5 mins maximum now after supplying our major goal threat last year.

players like sissoko and gouffran who initially impressed now look worse than ordinary.

our captain continually speaks about wanting to leave.

our goalkepper who was previously the best or most in form in the league doesnt seem interested anymore.

Pardew has sapped out the energy of our squad, made awful team and tactical decisions. We were in a position where we could have pushed on for the top 5 with a very cohesive and attacking team. Instead we sold our best player, dropped our other good players, played Shola Ameobi almost every game with long ball tactics and had our manager not allowed to be in the stadium.

Last week he came out and said he is unable to motivate the players at the moment.

He has allowed this to happen this season

Man City 4-0 Newcastle
Swansea 3-0 Newcastle
Newcastle 0-3 Sunderland
Chelsea 3-0 Newcastle
Newcastle 0-4 Tottenham
Newcastle 0-4 Man U
Newcastle 0-3 Everton
Southampton 4-0 Newcastle


completely losing the dressing room.

You can't be emotive about your own team here mate. You have to consider if they are exceeding expectation. Not your expectation but Joe Public, and then rationalise if what you hoped for, or recent poor results matches someones probability curve. Then, and only then, can you moan when you ain't happy about how your team are performing. Sucks don't it being a fan of a team on here.