Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

Exempli gratia, spurs are conforming disappointingly hastily to the mean.

[BorntoBubble]

arboy's bagged us a shore thing for next weekend so will ship tikay the winnings next sunday * Hopefully

Hopefully......!

Thank you for assisting.

How much do I owe you, please?

Send me some Bank Details, and I'll sort you out.

Thanks again.

Its ok wait till next week and ill send you the winnings minus £15

[arbboy]

Seriously this Newcastle team is the worst team there has ever been in the premiership (this current line up and performances) not sure I'm happy or not that I bottled betting an insane amount on man united to win. I was pretty close to doing it but bottled it with the Rooney exclusion. It would have been 20x bigger than any bet I'd ever made but perhaps too stupid and degen.

Seriously though would just lay newcastle in every upcoming match. We have basically no players who need to impress for the old cup, were guaranteed safety and we have a lot of injuries.

I feel abit stupid when I post here as I really can't say what value is or isn't because I just don't get it, so apologies on that but I don't post very often and it's usually always about Newcastle that I spend probably 3-5 hours a week "studying"

Pretty sure they would be a fav to beat Derby 07/08.

I think he means worst Newcastle team.

They aren't even that. We were far, far, far, worse the year we went down.

no way, have you compared the results? asides from a game where we played vs 9 men we have scored 14 goals at home all season. Weve been beaten 3-0 or worse about 5-6 times at home this season.

Points weve gained have been incredibly lucky. Fortunate to play against a v bad Man United side and win 1-0, fortunate to beat Spurs away when they had something like 25 shots on target, etc etc etc.

Carroll, Obafemi Martins, Enrique, Nolan, Owen, Bassong, Milner, Colocini, Beye, Butt, Joey Barton

theres no way they are "way, way worse" than Gosling, Williamson, Dummett, Cisse, De Jong et al.

I think weve won something like 4-5 games since the start of 2012 when Cabaye hasnt been in the team.

Im not sure who was in that Derby team that Arrboy spoke about but this current crop of talentless invididuals combined with our joke of a manager would push them close im sure.

It wasn't that long ago you were tipping them to win the league.  They are in 9th, well clear of last.   Admittedly they clearly got tonked today, but the reality must be somewhere between world beaters and worst in the premiership?  Even today the stats don't really suggest 0-4 was about right.  I haven't seen the game, but if you looked at possession, shots, corners etc you wouldn't be guessing 0-4. 

it just shows how much of a shit manager pardew is.

we had HBA who at the time created more chances than any other player in the premiership and looked certain to start for France in the world cup. He now gets 15 minutes a week for us.

we had Cabaye who was the in form attacking central midfielder in the premiership scoring and creating tonnes of goals. Our manager-chairman sold and didnt replace him.

we had remy who had a hugely impressive record be made to look v average.

we had cisse who was previously the most prolific striker in the league go on the follow... 270 minutes without a PL goal  (ending a 350 minute run since the last one and 1,209 minutes since the one before).

we had one of the most talented full backs in the premiership replaced by probably the worst left back in the premiership, Dummett.

Our second most creative player, Marveux didnt get on the bench for the first 25 games of the season and gets 5 mins maximum now after supplying our major goal threat last year.

players like sissoko and gouffran who initially impressed now look worse than ordinary.

our captain continually speaks about wanting to leave.

our goalkepper who was previously the best or most in form in the league doesnt seem interested anymore.

Pardew has sapped out the energy of our squad, made awful team and tactical decisions. We were in a position where we could have pushed on for the top 5 with a very cohesive and attacking team. Instead we sold our best player, dropped our other good players, played Shola Ameobi almost every game with long ball tactics and had our manager not allowed to be in the stadium.

Last week he came out and said he is unable to motivate the players at the moment.

He has allowed this to happen this season

Man City 4-0 Newcastle
Swansea 3-0 Newcastle
Newcastle 0-3 Sunderland
Chelsea 3-0 Newcastle
Newcastle 0-4 Tottenham
Newcastle 0-4 Man U
Newcastle 0-3 Everton
Southampton 4-0 Newcastle


completely losing the dressing room.

You can't be emotive about your own team here mate. You have to consider if they are exceeding expectation. Not your expectation but Joe Public, and then rationalise if what you hoped for, or recent poor results matches someones probability curve. Then, and only then, can you moan when you ain't happy about how your team are performing. Sucks don't it being a fan of a team on here. 

Quality.  Where is the head in hands man when you need him!

[BorntoBubble]

But what was the sample size?

8 seasons 500 odd games!!!  Nice gag!

Let me know when youve got 50k hands though

Cheers for the greyhound coup looking forward to dogs next saturday now!

[Tal]

As requested

[Ironside]

i think palace and the saints run ins are very even because of the order the games come in
i would not be shocked to see the saints finish with  another 5 points or less this season

[tikay]

arboy's bagged us a shore thing for next weekend so will ship tikay the winnings next sunday * Hopefully

Hopefully......!

Thank you for assisting.

How much do I owe you, please?

Send me some Bank Details, and I'll sort you out.

Thanks again.

Its ok wait till next week and ill send you the winnings minus £15

OK, gotcha, thank you very much.

Remind me next weekend, as I'm liable to forget, win or lose.

[BigAdz]

catching up

no grand national bets?

no william hill maths bets?

no other horse bets on a Saturday?

a strange staturday!

Unreal that no one put up a National selection. I can only speak for myself, but I was never going to put a bet on here knowing I was up against Neil's service, and with most on here seemingly involved in it, it felt almost churlish to post anything, despite having a blinding pair of best bets for the Saturday, which I posted for Omm on the racing thread.

The only racing offering was another lost maths bet I think. I think if people have strong views in those races, I know I did, you feel like your study is wasted because you will be up against a cursory glance at oddschecker and the betfair market.

Football bets seem to have become arboys domain as he shouts down anyone with an opinion that doesn't have a mathematical bent. Plinops bet was talked down despite some valuable supporter insight. Again, for me, the learning part is great about the maths side, but unless someone is a millionaire off these theories posted, then lets allow others to have an opinion without being made to feel foolish for daring to suggest something that may involve gut feel and more "insider" thinking.

I'm not worried about winning popularity contests, and happy to speak my mind, but I do love the original ethos of this place, and hope we aren't losing it. I may be totally alone in my views but reading between the lines, but I doubt it. I will continue to read and post on here regardless, you will be relieved to know.

Luckily we have Hector who plows on regardless with another winner! .  Good luck to Booders bet, first of many hopefully.

[scotty2hatty]

Love Holdem Spy

[Omm]

catching up

no grand national bets?

no william hill maths bets?

no other horse bets on a Saturday?

a strange staturday!

Unreal that no one put up a National selection. I can only speak for myself, but I was never going to put a bet on here knowing I was up against Neil's service, and with most on here seemingly involved in it, it felt almost churlish to post anything, despite having a blinding pair of best bets for the Saturday, which I posted for Omm on the racing thread.

The only racing offering was another lost maths bet I think. I think if people have strong views in those races, I know I did, you feel like your study is wasted because you will be up against a cursory glance at oddschecker and the betfair market.

Football bets seem to have become arboys domain as he shouts down anyone with an opinion that doesn't have a mathematical bent. Plinops bet was talked down despite some valuable supporter insight. Again, for me, the learning part is great about the maths side, but unless someone is a millionaire off these theories posted, then lets allow others to have an opinion without being made to feel foolish for daring to suggest something that may involve gut feel and more "insider" thinking.

I'm not worried about winning popularity contests, and happy to speak my mind, but I do love the original ethos of this place, and hope we aren't losing it. I may be totally alone in my views but reading between the lines, but I doubt it. I will continue to read and post on here regardless, you will be relieved to know.

Luckily we have Hector who plows on regardless with another winner! .  Good luck to Booders bet, first of many hopefully.

I'm sure there are many people who follow a lot of stuff, Maths or not, that do not post. Hence it is only right and proper that people continue to post regardless of what other people say. Tikay/Tighty make it clear enough to see that all that is asked is that there is a bit of value to the bet and the reason behind it. If it's a Maths bet it may not need as much explanation but people still need to know the reason. I'm pretty sure a lot of us have made a small fortune on recommends from Adz, CWS, Chompey, Tighty, Neil (ok not so much now but still chips in the odd freebie), Jakally , Hector and these are just to mention a few. I also have no doubt we will all be chirping when one of Doobs' maths freebies hit (Hopefully Spieth in the Masters).

The debate is great and once again people read it who don't post often or at all but it should still happen. Let's grow a thicker skin and continue to be a great part of a greater community.

As a side note I am sure there is nobody who will challenge Adz on Horse Racing if he puts up a recommend, to my mind he is just as good if not better than most on here in this area. It seems the thread would have had at least 4 nice winners from him if they had been put on here instead of the racing thread. But regardless that is just admin work as I'm sure others follow the racing thread as well.

Good luck all.

[TightEnd]

Adz

not being able to use Neil's subscription stuff is, I think, even more reason to put up well researched racing stuff. No one is going to say "but neil says...". His is only one opinion, that we have access to a year or so ago and can't use now, albeit that many thread readers will do well off the subscription stuff off thread

it is also, i think, a useful counterpoint to the maths racing stuff, gives us exposure to more than shorter-priced favourites. balances up the range of bets we have on that particular sport

on the football stuff, arbboy is a man who holds opinions and isn't afraid to express them. Football is not his "domain" on here. I asked for opinions, on balance they were against placing the bet, thats all   

[Tal]

The best bits of this thread are when there's a big event and either:

a) we have a variety of opinions on what's going to happen and we all watch with bated breath; or
b) we are all on one tip and are sweating it together.

Both rely on a sense of community to work. It's no good having two or three posters on a subject, but six, eight, a dozen people piping up with views, maths, gut, logic, bias and anything in between. In the end, Fred will back what he thinks is best but it doesn't mean Johnny Lurker isn't backing whatever "unlucky loser" Adz has tipped. Occasionally, we get someone post who's been watching for a while and has now got the confidence to post a bet. They get backed blind first time out and hopefully join the party.

The more variety we have, the better. The more dismissive we are, the more likely it is the naysayers will say it's just a clique and they could barely be more wrong. The success of the thread relies on growing the number of tipsters and developing the product we have. The elders more frequently steer than post tips themselves, with the exception of hector's dripping, cake-baking tap.

Still a fun thread, whatever.

[BigAdz]

Cheers for the replies guys.

All fair comments, but just trying to shed some light on why it was so quiet, on what you would have thought would have been a day of massive punting.

GL today in the Cricket!!!

[tikay]

catching up

no grand national bets?

no william hill maths bets?

no other horse bets on a Saturday?

a strange staturday!

Unreal that no one put up a National selection. I can only speak for myself, but I was never going to put a bet on here knowing I was up against Neil's service, and with most on here seemingly involved in it, it felt almost churlish to post anything, despite having a blinding pair of best bets for the Saturday, which I posted for Omm on the racing thread.

The only racing offering was another lost maths bet I think. I think if people have strong views in those races, I know I did, you feel like your study is wasted because you will be up against a cursory glance at oddschecker and the betfair market.

Football bets seem to have become arboys domain as he shouts down anyone with an opinion that doesn't have a mathematical bent. Plinops bet was talked down despite some valuable supporter insight. Again, for me, the learning part is great about the maths side, but unless someone is a millionaire off these theories posted, then lets allow others to have an opinion without being made to feel foolish for daring to suggest something that may involve gut feel and more "insider" thinking.

I'm not worried about winning popularity contests, and happy to speak my mind, but I do love the original ethos of this place, and hope we aren't losing it. I may be totally alone in my views but reading between the lines, but I doubt it. I will continue to read and post on here regardless, you will be relieved to know.

Luckily we have Hector who plows on regardless with another winner! .  Good luck to Booders bet, first of many hopefully.

I'm sure there are many people who follow a lot of stuff, Maths or not, that do not post. Hence it is only right and proper that people continue to post regardless of what other people say. Tikay/Tighty make it clear enough to see that all that is asked is that there is a bit of value to the bet and the reason behind it. If it's a Maths bet it may not need as much explanation but people still need to know the reason. I'm pretty sure a lot of us have made a small fortune on recommends from Adz, CWS, Chompey, Tighty, Neil (ok not so much now but still chips in the odd freebie), Jakally , Hector and these are just to mention a few. I also have no doubt we will all be chirping when one of Doobs' maths freebies hit (Hopefully Spieth in the Masters).

The debate is great and once again people read it who don't post often or at all but it should still happen. Let's grow a thicker skin and continue to be a great part of a greater community.

As a side note I am sure there is nobody who will challenge Adz on Horse Racing if he puts up a recommend, to my mind he is just as good if not better than most on here in this area. It seems the thread would have had at least 4 nice winners from him if they had been put on here instead of the racing thread. But regardless that is just admin work as I'm sure others follow the racing thread as well.

Good luck all.

Correct.

Tighty is, to my gratitude, sharing the load/responsibility now, but memory & time issues excepted, Fred pretty much backs Adzy's Horse Racing stuff "blind" these days.

As to the National, personally, I was glad that very little was Recommended. It's a very high-variance race, & the bankroll has taken a bit of a pounding lately, so my nerve might have failed me. For once, I was relieved to see very little suggested. It is a VERY tough race to be long-term profitable on, I'd say. In my experience, anyway.....

Anyway, never mind that, I think we have a decent T20 sweat today, with Sri Lanka?

Good luck all. 

[hector62]

Morning Mr T.

Today I am very excited. Not because Foggy is playing the Angry Scot, it's the rugby league challenge cup, or even the last Heineken cup 1/4 final. But because I am going to bake some Jalapeno and mature cheddar granary bread.

I am a bit stuck about which bet to put up as I really like the unders in the Toulon / Leinster match but I think there is a bit more value in going for Hull KR to beat Warrington in the rugby league. This one could go horribly wrong, I still have palpitations about Hull KR 10 Wigan 84 last season. However I do think at 5/2 they are over priced and they are at home. Warrington just do not have the attacking threat they had last season after the retirements of Fatty Briers and Hodgson, and the other departures.

Suggest £20 Hull KR @ 5/2 with Ladbrokes.