Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Completely agree, Tighty. The Oxford 11/10 looks the standout to me

its actually over 3 lengths 11/10

its a big bet if you can get on with PP

I can get £10.

Seems reasonable, better than nothing.

Yes?

[TightEnd]

Completely agree, Tighty. The Oxford 11/10 looks the standout to me

its actually over 3 lengths 11/10

its a big bet if you can get on with PP

I can get £10.

Seems reasonable, better than nothing.

Yes?

Yah. (getting into oxbridge character)

[redarmi]

BMU has a 100% book today.

The book is on which station one of the boat race teams will choose. In other words, which side of the river will Cambridge be rowing on? Middlesex or Surrey? Even money each.



I don't understand the water conditions and the boats well enough to offer a bet-worthy insight into who will choose what. As you can see, Surrey offers that long bend, which is great, as long as you start well and don't fall a length behind (if the lead is over a length - called "clear water", you can cut inside, rather than having to stick to sides of the river). Oxford have everything on paper in their favour, including a crushing warm up defeat of the Molesey club, who themselves beat Cambridge a month ago.

My instinct would be Oxford choose Surrey and pressure Cambridge at the start, hoping to turn the screw in the middle and get a big lead. Cambridge had the Middlesex line in their third practice race against Leander and got squeezed in the bend against a really strong start, which really convinces me that's what the dark blues will do.

I suspect this is a No Bet, although happy to listen to views. We don't need much to beat the bookies, after all.

Hills go 4/1 that the commentators will apologise for the bad language uttered by the coxswains. Two young lads (18 and 20) that look like butter wouldn't melt. But it offers you a 17 minute sweat if you fancy it, because it certainly can happen.

Those who think it's just a load of meatheads who are given land economy degrees at Hughes Hall will be interested to read about Helge Greutjen:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/olympics/rowing/10746708/University-Boat-Race-2014-Stephen-Hawkings-PHD-student-Helge-Gruetjen-could-be-the-freak-of-nature-Cambridge-needs-to-win.html

I think if you have any kind of logical reasoning with the side that they will pick then you should have a bet.  It is a 100% book so any edge in logic will make it a bet and at worst you are neutral EV and having a punt.  

[TightEnd]

in the last 20 years, 18 of 20 winning tossers chose surrey, thats as far as I have got so far. 15 of 20 on surrey won

so the decision is really, who wins the toss?

[redarmi]

catching up

no grand national bets?

no william hill maths bets?

no other horse bets on a Saturday?

a strange staturday!

Unreal that no one put up a National selection. I can only speak for myself, but I was never going to put a bet on here knowing I was up against Neil's service, and with most on here seemingly involved in it, it felt almost churlish to post anything, despite having a blinding pair of best bets for the Saturday, which I posted for Omm on the racing thread.

The only racing offering was another lost maths bet I think. I think if people have strong views in those races, I know I did, you feel like your study is wasted because you will be up against a cursory glance at oddschecker and the betfair market.

Football bets seem to have become arboys domain as he shouts down anyone with an opinion that doesn't have a mathematical bent. Plinops bet was talked down despite some valuable supporter insight. Again, for me, the learning part is great about the maths side, but unless someone is a millionaire off these theories posted, then lets allow others to have an opinion without being made to feel foolish for daring to suggest something that may involve gut feel and more "insider" thinking.

I'm not worried about winning popularity contests, and happy to speak my mind, but I do love the original ethos of this place, and hope we aren't losing it. I may be totally alone in my views but reading between the lines, but I doubt it. I will continue to read and post on here regardless, you will be relieved to know.

Luckily we have Hector who plows on regardless with another winner! .  Good luck to Booders bet, first of many hopefully.

Disagree with most of this to be honest.  If somebody put up a bet on the Grand National then it would be considered so long as it was reasonably well argued.  The line about a "cursory glance at oddschecker and Betfair" seems a bit unfair.  If a poster is thinking their bet through they will have looked at both of those sources and used the best price of all the firms and exchanges so a look at any of them isn't going to be a good reason to knock back a bet.  Neither is the fact that Neil has put up another horse against it.  Neil is a very smart punter but anyone that has ever read anything that he reads can see a lot of his angles for themselves and there are many on Fred that have unique angles of their own and the fact that Neil, Chompy, Dubai, Arb, Camel, Bobby1, myself etc read Fred daily is because we get something out of it too so everyone benefits from the posts here.  Besides one thing you will find with a lot of smart punters is that the smartest thing about them is that they read and listen to every informed opinion going.

On Arbboy shouting down football tips......I first met Arbboy just over ten years ago when I was suggested him as candidate for a job I was hiring for.  The first twice I spoke to him on the phone I really didn't like him and knocked him back for the job.  I was told to persist and to meet him in person so I did and, despite still having reservations he was clearly very sharp so I hired him.  He came over and rubbed everyone up the wrong way but he was sharp and over the years he has gotten sharper.  You ask if anyone has become a millionaire from that approach well Arb hasn't worked for 7-8 years and has supported himself betting in that period so he has certainly done well.  The fact is he has a somewhat abrasive personality and it is certainly something that rubbed me up the wrong way when I first met him but despite that I have probably spoken to him every day in the last ten years and now consider him to be one of my best friends.  Could he probably phrase things with a little more subtlety?  Definitely but behind all of the bluster it is also generally worth listening to what he says.  Just ignore the tone and humour him a bit.  I noticed when watching the darts the other day he looks a bit like Adrian Lewis and is the only man in history to be proud to have moved from the home counties to Stoke so there is plenty to work with ;-)

[Chompy]

The ground at Ffos Llas is barely raceable.

I like Viking Blond in the 2.30. Loves a bit of mud, has bottomless stamina and does at least try. Maller Tree is a woofer who I don't think will stay and a couple of the others prefer decent ground.

Rec £25 win. Might be able to nick some 7/2 before they jump, but otherwise 3/1 fine.

[TightEnd]

The ground at Ffos Llas is barely raceable.

I like Viking Blond in the 2.30. Loves a bit of mud, has bottomless stamina and does at least try. Maller Tree is a woofer who I don't think will stay and a couple of the others prefer decent ground.

Rec £25 win. Might be able to nick some 7/2 before they jump, but otherwise 3/1 fine.

 14:30 VIKING BLOND (Horse Racing Outright - Race) Odds: 3/1 Stake: 25.00 Possible Return:  100.00

BMU BET PLACED

[TightEnd]

we kicked off 9/4 favourite at ffos las.....

[Dubai]

Liverpool won 8 in a row- playing best football in league scoring goals for fun, have scored 54 alone in first half this season compared to west hams 36 in whole game! West Ham safe not much to play for, got beat 4-1 in last meeting in league v liverpool.

Therefore obviously suggest laying Liverpool @1.41

[Chompy]

Never in doubt...

[redarmi]

The ground at Ffos Llas is barely raceable.

I like Viking Blond in the 2.30. Loves a bit of mud, has bottomless stamina and does at least try. Maller Tree is a woofer who I don't think will stay and a couple of the others prefer decent ground.

Rec £25 win. Might be able to nick some 7/2 before they jump, but otherwise 3/1 fine.

You called that race as though you had already seen it run.  Great call.

[TightEnd]

The ground at Ffos Llas is barely raceable.

I like Viking Blond in the 2.30. Loves a bit of mud, has bottomless stamina and does at least try. Maller Tree is a woofer who I don't think will stay and a couple of the others prefer decent ground.

Rec £25 win. Might be able to nick some 7/2 before they jump, but otherwise 3/1 fine.

You called that race as though you had already seen it run.  Great call.

tick. thanks

[TightEnd]

Liverpool won 8 in a row- playing best football in league scoring goals for fun, have scored 54 alone in first half this season compared to west hams 36 in whole game! West Ham safe not much to play for, got beat 4-1 in last meeting in league v liverpool.

Therefore obviously suggest laying Liverpool @1.41

ok...this is serious? if so how much?

when does the football season end, so we can stop laying liverpool when overbet lol!?

[Chompy]

Harsh commentary I felt.  He doesn't always go with much zest? Well he doesn't when he's taken off his feet from start to finish over 2m3f at Stratford, but he's certainly not a shirker. Maller Tree on the other hand.

[Tonji]

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/one-day-classics/paris-roubaix/winner

Phinney looking super strong in today's Flanders. Riding strongly in the break & looking better than ever on the cobbles.

Prime target for the classics is Roubaix. Will certainly be BMCs protected rider. Started last year at around 12/1.

33/1 looks value EW.