Tips for Tikay

[mulhuzz]

Norwich sack Hughton

Norwich, put the youth team manager in charge with Liverpool, Man Utd, Chelsea and Arsenal as your last four games

very strange

More importantly they have what may turn out to be a relegation shootout vs Fulham first up.

If they lose that they are done for I fear as Fulham have the easier run in and can pick up points.

[TightEnd]

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[arbboy]

catching up

no grand national bets?

no william hill maths bets?

no other horse bets on a Saturday?

a strange staturday!

Unreal that no one put up a National selection. I can only speak for myself, but I was never going to put a bet on here knowing I was up against Neil's service, and with most on here seemingly involved in it, it felt almost churlish to post anything, despite having a blinding pair of best bets for the Saturday, which I posted for Omm on the racing thread.

The only racing offering was another lost maths bet I think. I think if people have strong views in those races, I know I did, you feel like your study is wasted because you will be up against a cursory glance at oddschecker and the betfair market.

Football bets seem to have become arboys domain as he shouts down anyone with an opinion that doesn't have a mathematical bent. Plinops bet was talked down despite some valuable supporter insight. Again, for me, the learning part is great about the maths side, but unless someone is a millionaire off these theories posted, then lets allow others to have an opinion without being made to feel foolish for daring to suggest something that may involve gut feel and more "insider" thinking.

I'm not worried about winning popularity contests, and happy to speak my mind, but I do love the original ethos of this place, and hope we aren't losing it. I may be totally alone in my views but reading between the lines, but I doubt it. I will continue to read and post on here regardless, you will be relieved to know.

Luckily we have Hector who plows on regardless with another winner! .  Good luck to Booders bet, first of many hopefully.

Disagree with most of this to be honest.  If somebody put up a bet on the Grand National then it would be considered so long as it was reasonably well argued.  The line about a "cursory glance at oddschecker and Betfair" seems a bit unfair.  If a poster is thinking their bet through they will have looked at both of those sources and used the best price of all the firms and exchanges so a look at any of them isn't going to be a good reason to knock back a bet.  Neither is the fact that Neil has put up another horse against it.  Neil is a very smart punter but anyone that has ever read anything that he reads can see a lot of his angles for themselves and there are many on Fred that have unique angles of their own and the fact that Neil, Chompy, Dubai, Arb, Camel, Bobby1, myself etc read Fred daily is because we get something out of it too so everyone benefits from the posts here.  Besides one thing you will find with a lot of smart punters is that the smartest thing about them is that they read and listen to every informed opinion going.

On Arbboy shouting down football tips......I first met Arbboy just over ten years ago when I was suggested him as candidate for a job I was hiring for.  The first twice I spoke to him on the phone I really didn't like him and knocked him back for the job.  I was told to persist and to meet him in person so I did and, despite still having reservations he was clearly very sharp so I hired him.  He came over and rubbed everyone up the wrong way but he was sharp and over the years he has gotten sharper.  You ask if anyone has become a millionaire from that approach well Arb hasn't worked for 7-8 years and has supported himself betting in that period so he has certainly done well.  The fact is he has a somewhat abrasive personality and it is certainly something that rubbed me up the wrong way when I first met him but despite that I have probably spoken to him every day in the last ten years and now consider him to be one of my best friends.  Could he probably phrase things with a little more subtlety?  Definitely but behind all of the bluster it is also generally worth listening to what he says.  Just ignore the tone and humour him a bit.  I noticed when watching the darts the other day he looks a bit like Adrian Lewis and is the only man in history to be proud to have moved from the home counties to Stoke so there is plenty to work with ;-)

Not having this lookalike stuff at all until tighty uses jackpot as a lookalike on an update thread at dtd for me!

[cheapwetsuit]

Not likely a bet that can win, but a place is possible. Not going to waste time with a write-up ... this recommend is all about value:

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/vuelta-a-pais-vasco/winner

Recommend Simon Spilak @ 150/1 (ButterMeUp) £2.50 e/w 1-2-3

Small stakes please. I make it any one of eight riders to finish in third behind Contador and Valverde. Just reckon the price here is way OOL, so I have to bite.

[TightEnd]

Not likely a bet that can win, but a place is possible. Not going to waste time with a write-up ... this recommend is all about value:

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/vuelta-a-pais-vasco/winner

Recommend Simon Spilak @ 150/1 (ButterMeUp) £2.50 e/w 1-2-3

Small stakes please. I make it any one of eight riders to finish in third behind Contador and Valverde. Just reckon the price here is way OOL, so I have to bite.

80/1 before i got there. now?

[Omm]

Not likely a bet that can win, but a place is possible. Not going to waste time with a write-up ... this recommend is all about value:

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/vuelta-a-pais-vasco/winner

Recommend Simon Spilak @ 150/1 (ButterMeUp) £2.50 e/w 1-2-3

Small stakes please. I make it any one of eight riders to finish in third behind Contador and Valverde. Just reckon the price here is way OOL, so I have to bite.

Does that make the 5-1 on Valverde with Sb worth a little tickle ew?

[Tal]

Judging by the photo in the update thread, arbboy, we've met over the felt a few times at DTD (maybe other places, too). 300 deepstacks?

Next time, I'll introduce myself. That sounds horribly like a singles ad in the paper, but you know what I mean.

You'll be the one in the loud trucker hat. I'll be the one bracing myself.

The way you have come across here is fairly consistent with my handful of experiences of you at the tables, but it is FAR easier to understand that's "just your way" in the flesh than it is in the written word alone. Whereas, as many on here can attest to, I'm polite, erudite and overtly charming on blonde, but in real life, I am impatient, hideously voluble and have a vocabulary that would make Chubby Brown blush.

Variance, innit?

To be fair, everyone thought Adz was a tool when he started posting, but then he brought us all money. Now he's in my top three arsenal fans. Keep posting winners.

Yours greedily,

Tal.

[Waz1892]

Junior fergie for the norwich job?

Taken posh as far as he can
Ambitious manager
Local to the area, which isnt the greatest location in the world

http://m.oddschecker.com/#football-football-specials-norwich-next-permanent-manager

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £364.98

Outstanding Bets £3869.78

Free bets: ONE WILLIAM HILL USE BY 10TH APRIL

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=23

i won't be on til midday tomorrow so have to try to do this tonight

Aprofit of £176 on sunday

- sri lanka winning the T20WC at 6-1, great ante post shout. successful tipping t20wc
- viking blond winning at ffos las at 3-1, started 9/4 won easily
- oxford winning by more than 3 lengths at 11/10 won very easily, couldn't get much on
- penalty at west-ham/liverpool at 11/4, came in and then again

offset by

- liverpool lay
- india green out
- hull kr losing 24-28. close!
- paris-roubaix cyclist not placed

arsenal losing to everton horrible news for out fading top three hopes

liverpool win at west ham puts huge significance for us on liverpool-man c next weekend, as liverpool title layers

very good result for us in the bahrain GP, Mercedes one two and hamilton winning

fiorentina won, napoli lost, gap from fiorentina to 3rd down to 9 points with 6 games to play

In baseball balitmore won, royals lost, yankees won
   

[cheapwetsuit]

Not likely a bet that can win, but a place is possible. Not going to waste time with a write-up ... this recommend is all about value:

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/vuelta-a-pais-vasco/winner

Recommend Simon Spilak @ 150/1 (ButterMeUp) £2.50 e/w 1-2-3

Small stakes please. I make it any one of eight riders to finish in third behind Contador and Valverde. Just reckon the price here is way OOL, so I have to bite.

Does that make the 5-1 on Valverde with Sb worth a little tickle ew?

To be honest, I haven't had a lot of time to work that out yet. When PP odds first came out, he was 7/1 ... so it hasn't taken long for others to pile in. My first thought was that 7/1 was a bit of a mean price for something that could be wiped out in one massive pile-up. I tend to think of cycling as the Grand National, and I wouldn't care to put all my eggs in one basket ... not with my track record of picking casualties. With a bit more studying, I'm sure I'll find something with potential ... well more potential than Spilak, but nothing jumps out at me ... not yet, anyway.

Tighty, I make Spilak a 40/1 chance ... so I guess 80/1 would still be value. I'll leave it to you, but I would say that we have missed the boat on this one.

[Omm]

Not likely a bet that can win, but a place is possible. Not going to waste time with a write-up ... this recommend is all about value:

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/vuelta-a-pais-vasco/winner

Recommend Simon Spilak @ 150/1 (ButterMeUp) £2.50 e/w 1-2-3

Small stakes please. I make it any one of eight riders to finish in third behind Contador and Valverde. Just reckon the price here is way OOL, so I have to bite.

Does that make the 5-1 on Valverde with Sb worth a little tickle ew?

To be honest, I haven't had a lot of time to work that out yet. When PP odds first came out, he was 7/1 ... so it hasn't taken long for others to pile in. My first thought was that 7/1 was a bit of a mean price for something that could be wiped out in one massive pile-up. I tend to think of cycling as the Grand National, and I wouldn't care to put all my eggs in one basket ... not with my track record of picking casualties. With a bit more studying, I'm sure I'll find something with potential ... well more potential than Spilak, but nothing jumps out at me ... not yet, anyway.

Tighty, I make Spilak a 40/1 chance ... so I guess 80/1 would still be value. I'll leave it to you, but I would say that we have missed the boat on this one.

Maybe, but don't miss the boat on an 80-1 shot that should be 40-1.

[TightEnd]

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[hector62]

Evening Mr T.

Tomorrow the ATP hits Casablanca, and it is a fairly ropey field tbh. With no Angry Scot to oppose there is no free money to be had. Those who watched Foggy put on a masterclass today will have seen that clay court skills are far different from any other tennis surface. The favourite for the tournament is Monfils who has been playing mostly indoors and hard courts this season. I suggest we oppose him by backing Delbonis, who has won a clay court tournament this season.

Suggest £10 e/w Delbonis @ 12-1 with Ladbrokes but the widely available 10-1 is OK too

I wonder if I will be in sync with the Racing Post again with my choice..

[booder]

Junior fergie for the norwich job?

Taken posh as far as he can
Ambitious manager
Local to the area, which is the greatest location in the world

http://m.oddschecker.com/#football-football-specials-norwich-next-permanent-manager

FYP

[Waz1892]

Junior fergie for the norwich job?

Taken posh as far as he can
Ambitious manager
Local to the area, which is the greatest location in the world

http://m.oddschecker.com/#football-football-specials-norwich-next-permanent-manager

FYP

Lol, i was careful with my words! Meant from a managers locational view. The city of course is beautiful