Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Stupid questions time

Only 12 of the 30 horses in the Scottish Grand National are "in the handicap"

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/national-hunt/scottish-grand-national/winner

so the other 18 are carrying more weight than the handicapper estimates they should


Is it common that horses in big handicaps win from "out of the handicap"?

 presumably they have to improve a lot, realtive to the form on which they are handicapped, to win under these conditions and with horses of 7-8-9-10 years old this is less likely than 2-3-4 year olds where amturity can be an issue?

if not, then does this help us find value in a race of this type where many can be discarded?

[BigAdz]

Watch the 5.00 at Ludlow for a great falling off a horse. Made me chuckle anyway.

[arbboy]

Stupid questions time

Only 12 of the 30 horses in the Scottish Grand National are "in the handicap"

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/national-hunt/scottish-grand-national/winner

so the other 18 are carrying more weight than the handicapper estimates they should


Is it common that horses in big handicaps win from "out of the handicap"?

 presumably they have to improve a lot, realtive to the form on which they are handicapped, to win under these conditions and with horses of 7-8-9-10 years old this is less likely than 2-3-4 year olds where amturity can be an issue?

if not, then does this help us find value in a race of this type where many can be discarded?

forget last post clicked the wrong race.

http://www.racingpost.com/horses2/cards/card.sd?race_id=597425&r_date=2014-04-12&big_race=Y&raceTabs=#raceTabs=sc_

This is the card.    The vast majority of those are only carrying up to 6lbs out of the handicap (numerous only 1, 2 or 3lbs over) which although is a factor i would imagine over this extreme distance wouldn't make a huge difference to ever put a line through them.

[BigAdz]

Stupid questions time

Only 12 of the 30 horses in the Scottish Grand National are "in the handicap"

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/national-hunt/scottish-grand-national/winner

so the other 18 are carrying more weight than the handicapper estimates they should


Is it common that horses in big handicaps win from "out of the handicap"?

 presumably they have to improve a lot, realtive to the form on which they are handicapped, to win under these conditions and with horses of 7-8-9-10 years old this is less likely than 2-3-4 year olds where amturity can be an issue?

if not, then does this help us find value in a race of this type where many can be discarded?

Of the 18 outside the handicap about 14 are no more than 6lbs wrong. With a step up in distance, drying ground etc etc, I expect there are one or two lurking in there that easily have that improvement in them. From memory the SGN is nearly always a good race for those at the lower half of the weights.

Its a good spot, but probably not enough to think its a standout, sadly.

Merry King

[arbboy]

Stupid questions time

Only 12 of the 30 horses in the Scottish Grand National are "in the handicap"

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/national-hunt/scottish-grand-national/winner

so the other 18 are carrying more weight than the handicapper estimates they should


Is it common that horses in big handicaps win from "out of the handicap"?

 presumably they have to improve a lot, realtive to the form on which they are handicapped, to win under these conditions and with horses of 7-8-9-10 years old this is less likely than 2-3-4 year olds where amturity can be an issue?

if not, then does this help us find value in a race of this type where many can be discarded?

Of the 18 outside the handicap about 14 are no more than 6lbs wrong. With a step up in distance, drying ground etc etc, I expect there are one or two lurking in there that easily have that improvement in them. From memory the SGN is nearly always a good race for those at the lower half of the weights.

Its a good spot, but probably not enough to think its a standout, sadly.

Merry King

Me and Adz agree on something.  Wonders will never cease!

[BigAdz]

You must be losing it, cos I could never be as clever as you mate!

[arbboy]

You must be losing it, cos I could never be as clever as you mate!

Think we are equal par on horses!

[McGlashan]

Stupid questions time

Only 12 of the 30 horses in the Scottish Grand National are "in the handicap"

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/national-hunt/scottish-grand-national/winner

so the other 18 are carrying more weight than the handicapper estimates they should


Is it common that horses in big handicaps win from "out of the handicap"?

 presumably they have to improve a lot, realtive to the form on which they are handicapped, to win under these conditions and with horses of 7-8-9-10 years old this is less likely than 2-3-4 year olds where amturity can be an issue?

if not, then does this help us find value in a race of this type where many can be discarded?

Of the 18 outside the handicap about 14 are no more than 6lbs wrong. With a step up in distance, drying ground etc etc, I expect there are one or two lurking in there that easily have that improvement in them. From memory the SGN is nearly always a good race for those at the lower half of the weights.

Its a good spot, but probably not enough to think its a standout, sadly.

Merry King

Me and Adz agree on something.  Wonders will never cease!

Oi oi arbboy are you on any draws in tonight's darts?

[Doobs]

I'm on athletico thanks to Fred, was thinking bout greening back the stake, but they still look big to me. They gonna be one of those teams noone takes serious all the way through?

It'd be nice I hear the opinions of some elders on this.

The price has never looked good for hedging. I was on after the group draw and had planned on doing so.

Also Courtois will not play if Atletico meet Chelsea.

I don't think I like the A-Madrid price now - I was the one who put it up earlier at 20/1. However not sure how much of an impact the it will have without the first choice keeper, hardly like losing your best or one of your better outfield players.

I don't think you wre first.  Somebody put them up at 50/1.  I backed them when you were banging on about them only to discover I had backed them previously and forgotten about it.  Pretty sure I read the 50/1 here, but long since forgotten who it was.

Thanks whoever it was.

[arbboy]

Stupid questions time

Only 12 of the 30 horses in the Scottish Grand National are "in the handicap"

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/national-hunt/scottish-grand-national/winner

so the other 18 are carrying more weight than the handicapper estimates they should


Is it common that horses in big handicaps win from "out of the handicap"?

 presumably they have to improve a lot, realtive to the form on which they are handicapped, to win under these conditions and with horses of 7-8-9-10 years old this is less likely than 2-3-4 year olds where amturity can be an issue?

if not, then does this help us find value in a race of this type where many can be discarded?

Of the 18 outside the handicap about 14 are no more than 6lbs wrong. With a step up in distance, drying ground etc etc, I expect there are one or two lurking in there that easily have that improvement in them. From memory the SGN is nearly always a good race for those at the lower half of the weights.

Its a good spot, but probably not enough to think its a standout, sadly.

Merry King

Me and Adz agree on something.  Wonders will never cease!

Oi oi arbboy are you on any draws in tonight's darts?

4 very competitive games tonight and MVG's.  Boyles 8/15 a draw in any match is too big.  Recommend £75 for fred if we can get on.

Chis v Barney £50 4/1 coral/betfred
wright v ando 4/1 skybet (fred can't get on) but would recommend £50.  15/4 at 365 is worth £30 if fred can get it
barney v wright 15/4 bet365 £30 recommended

[bunnydas8888]

Stupid questions time

Only 12 of the 30 horses in the Scottish Grand National are "in the handicap"

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/national-hunt/scottish-grand-national/winner

so the other 18 are carrying more weight than the handicapper estimates they should


Is it common that horses in big handicaps win from "out of the handicap"?

 presumably they have to improve a lot, realtive to the form on which they are handicapped, to win under these conditions and with horses of 7-8-9-10 years old this is less likely than 2-3-4 year olds where amturity can be an issue?

if not, then does this help us find value in a race of this type where many can be discarded?

Of the 18 outside the handicap about 14 are no more than 6lbs wrong. With a step up in distance, drying ground etc etc, I expect there are one or two lurking in there that easily have that improvement in them. From memory the SGN is nearly always a good race for those at the lower half of the weights.

Its a good spot, but probably not enough to think its a standout, sadly.

Merry King

Me and Adz agree on something.  Wonders will never cease!

Oi oi arbboy are you on any draws in tonight's darts?

4 very competitive games tonight and MVG's.  Boyles 8/15 a draw in any match is too big.  Recommend £75 for fred if we can get on.

Chis v Barney £50 4/1 coral/betfred
wright v ando 4/1 skybet (fred can't get on) but would recommend £50.  15/4 at 365 is worth £30 if fred can get it
barney v wright 15/4 bet365 £30 recommended

Happy to see this, I also threw in the taylor/lewis match to make it up to a nice lucky 15 =)

[arbboy]

not a fan of backing lewis to draw when he is an underdog.  I always think he is overrated in this event.  I never get the feeling week in week out he is properly prepared for it.  I like the draws when he is a fav because he is always overrated and the match is usually much more of a flip than the odds suggest.  Was close to backing taylor at evens in this tonight but passed.

[Kmac84]

Any thoughts on Lewis' average.  The Taylor factor + the fact that Taylor needs the points should see him putting in a top performance. 

[TightEnd]

we can't get on with boyles

coral

Draw4/1Dave Chisnall v Raymond van Barneveld - 10/04/2014
Stake £50.00
Estimated Return:£250.00
Total Stake: £50.00
Potential Return: £250.00

£8 each with Bet365 wright/anderson and RVB/Wright at 15/4, bets maxed


3 BETS PLACED

[arbboy]

Any thoughts on Lewis' average.  The Taylor factor + the fact that Taylor needs the points should see him putting in a top performance. 

Lewis is just so inconsistent in this week in week out format.  I have no stats to back it up but would imagine his averages are as swingy as anyone's in the league.  Again i have no stats for this but i would imagine if you backed lewis to a £1 level stake every week he would be the worse performing result over the premier league since its start.  He can obviously turn it on and is usually priced accordingly but he doesn't produce it everywhere near as often as his price suggests he would.  Maybe the pressure of being my lookalike is getting to him!!