Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Morning.

Ain't the Masters great?!

Refresh finger when you're at work then home to a chorus of abuse as you red button all night and ignore the "can we at least watch Estenders?" plea.

Hadn't noticed that we had win only on Sneds. An interesting display of confidence in a 50-1 shot there Tikay!

I think modern day golf coaches may argue that all things considered Mr Watson and Mr Furyk have equally challenging swings to work with.

Err, yes, challenging.

There is no correct answer, but I'd say, back in the day, few were more challenging than Arnie's.

In modern-day terms, yes, how Furyk & his helicopter ever hit a ball where intended is one of golf's great mysteries.

David Duval - remember him, carrying all before him, briefly, back in the 90's? -  had a very odd swing, too, with his head following the ball every inch.

The one who most intrigues me these days is Wiggle-Waggle Dufner. How does that go where he wants? It invariably does, though.

[tikay]

this is because in the monthly transfer of info to a new sheet of the spreadsheet, all the bet information in the notes column (free bet, each way etc etc) was lost. hence we've tried to rebuild it

if anyone spots any other omissions, let me know please

Any chance you could lose a few other bets, Rich? We could save a fortune. Liverpool, Arsenal, Bet Of The Century, etc. 

[exstream]

Morning Mr T.

In the Casablanca tennis there is a bet I quite like in the Berlocq / Garcia Lopez match. I thought Berlocq was impressive and I think that him to win 2-0 is a decent bet.

Suggest £15 Berlocq 2-0 @ 6/4 with Coral.

Delbonnis plays Hanescu tomorrow and is currently 7-2 favourite for the tournament.

A friend whose opinion I respect on tennis says the following:

He's been on a slow comeback from injury

Keeps randomly losing to scrubs

Garcia-Lopez is much better value to beat him

6/4

Not that I'd touch the match either way

Won 3 lost 5 so far this year and has played 1 decent player

Opponent today is possibly best of the bunch

Why do you have people whose bets are auto bets?
Not picking on hector but even the people who are auto bets can miss/not be aware of certain things.

[hector62]

Morning Mr T.

I owe you an apology. After that woeful tennis tip yesterday I was too annoyed to give you the best rugby league bet so far this season which hosed up. Still, at least my chili /cheese bread was a triumph.

Tonight Castleford host St Helens and are overpriced. They have won 6 out of 7 matches this season, including beating Wigan, and I thought St Helens were average against Huddersfield on Saturday and really should have lost. If Castleford get their mindset right I expect them to win.

Suggest £20 Castleford @ 11/4 with Corals or Hills.

Delboy plays his 1/4 final v Hanescu in a couple of hours.

[tikay]

Recommendation

Sunrisers Hyderabad £15 e/w 2014 IPL at 13/2 Sportingbet

background

- we had the winner last year, mumbai at 5-1
- we've just cleared £300 on the T20WC
- lowish bet because its the IPL. Not 100% trustworthy.

8 teams

14 games, 7 home and 7 away

First part of tournament played in the UAE

Odds

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/indian-premier-league/winner

there might be some sub market bets later


Why Sunrisers?

in their first year last year they made the playoffs, and had the strongest bowling attack of the four qualifiers last year but also the least effective batting
they retain the bowling, dale steyn and amit mishra notably
and have recruited warner, finch, and sammy to provide the batting pop
Hyderabad. slow, low wickets. scores of 130 par. won 7 of 8 at home last year
now with batting to clear the ropes they are a more rounded team

strongest other teams

chennai (there always used to be the suspicion that the IPL was run for chennai's benefit0. undoubtedly a strong team and can play jadeja, ashwin and badree. priced as favourites

bangalore. superstar batting line up...gayle, kohli, de villiers. spin options are weak. might score big totals and struggle to defend them

mumbai..malinga, rohit, hussey, corey anderson etc. another decent team, not the squad depth of some others though

http://betting.betfair.com/cricket/indian-premier-league---ipl/ipl-betting-team-by-team-guide-beware-overrated-bangalore-070414-194.html features all of the teams

i like sunrisers balance, and they should be competitive on all surfaces. they don't have the range of spin options that chennai have but at nearly double the price (13/2 versus 4/1) they are better value for a competition sweat

Did we do this Rich?

I think we should, unless anyone has any objections, which I doubt, as it's been up for several days.

I note they are in to 6/1 now, but if you still think that's value, I suggest we get on.

[TightEnd]

Recommendation

Sunrisers Hyderabad £15 e/w 2014 IPL at 13/2 Sportingbet

background

- we had the winner last year, mumbai at 5-1
- we've just cleared £300 on the T20WC
- lowish bet because its the IPL. Not 100% trustworthy.

8 teams

14 games, 7 home and 7 away

First part of tournament played in the UAE

Odds

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/indian-premier-league/winner

there might be some sub market bets later


Why Sunrisers?

in their first year last year they made the playoffs, and had the strongest bowling attack of the four qualifiers last year but also the least effective batting
they retain the bowling, dale steyn and amit mishra notably
and have recruited warner, finch, and sammy to provide the batting pop
Hyderabad. slow, low wickets. scores of 130 par. won 7 of 8 at home last year
now with batting to clear the ropes they are a more rounded team

strongest other teams

chennai (there always used to be the suspicion that the IPL was run for chennai's benefit0. undoubtedly a strong team and can play jadeja, ashwin and badree. priced as favourites

bangalore. superstar batting line up...gayle, kohli, de villiers. spin options are weak. might score big totals and struggle to defend them

mumbai..malinga, rohit, hussey, corey anderson etc. another decent team, not the squad depth of some others though

http://betting.betfair.com/cricket/indian-premier-league---ipl/ipl-betting-team-by-team-guide-beware-overrated-bangalore-070414-194.html features all of the teams

i like sunrisers balance, and they should be competitive on all surfaces. they don't have the range of spin options that chennai have but at nearly double the price (13/2 versus 4/1) they are better value for a competition sweat

Did we do this Rich?

I think we should, unless anyone has any objections, which I doubt, as it's been up for several days.

I note they are in to 6/1 now, but if you still think that's value, I suggest we get on.

no, i took a policy decision not to place my own recommendations with your money, seemed a bit presumptious. After all, you could refuse any of them.

think that is best.

6/1 ok.

[sonour]

Morning Mr T.

I owe you an apology. After that woeful tennis tip yesterday I was too annoyed to give you the best rugby league bet so far this season which hosed up. Still, at least my chili /cheese bread was a triumph.

Tonight Castleford host St Helens and are overpriced. They have won 6 out of 7 matches this season, including beating Wigan, and I thought St Helens were average against Huddersfield on Saturday and really should have lost. If Castleford get their mindset right I expect them to win.

Suggest £20 Castleford @ 11/4 with Corals or Hills.

Delboy plays his 1/4 final v Hanescu in a couple of hours.

Keep posting please, Hector. I'm far more upset about he one you didn't post than the loser

[tikay]

Recommendation

Sunrisers Hyderabad £15 e/w 2014 IPL at 13/2 Sportingbet

background

- we had the winner last year, mumbai at 5-1
- we've just cleared £300 on the T20WC
- lowish bet because its the IPL. Not 100% trustworthy.

8 teams

14 games, 7 home and 7 away

First part of tournament played in the UAE

Odds

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/indian-premier-league/winner

there might be some sub market bets later


Why Sunrisers?

in their first year last year they made the playoffs, and had the strongest bowling attack of the four qualifiers last year but also the least effective batting
they retain the bowling, dale steyn and amit mishra notably
and have recruited warner, finch, and sammy to provide the batting pop
Hyderabad. slow, low wickets. scores of 130 par. won 7 of 8 at home last year
now with batting to clear the ropes they are a more rounded team

strongest other teams

chennai (there always used to be the suspicion that the IPL was run for chennai's benefit0. undoubtedly a strong team and can play jadeja, ashwin and badree. priced as favourites

bangalore. superstar batting line up...gayle, kohli, de villiers. spin options are weak. might score big totals and struggle to defend them

mumbai..malinga, rohit, hussey, corey anderson etc. another decent team, not the squad depth of some others though

http://betting.betfair.com/cricket/indian-premier-league---ipl/ipl-betting-team-by-team-guide-beware-overrated-bangalore-070414-194.html features all of the teams

i like sunrisers balance, and they should be competitive on all surfaces. they don't have the range of spin options that chennai have but at nearly double the price (13/2 versus 4/1) they are better value for a competition sweat

Did we do this Rich?

I think we should, unless anyone has any objections, which I doubt, as it's been up for several days.

I note they are in to 6/1 now, but if you still think that's value, I suggest we get on.

no, i took a policy decision not to place my own recommendations with your money, seemed a bit presumptious. After all, you could refuse any of them.

think that is best.

6/1 ok.

Ahh yes, fair comment. Well nobody has dissed the bet, so I've loaded up as Recommended, £15 EW @ 6/1, Sporting Bet. 

Bet Type: Single
IPL 2014 - Outright Outright WinnerSunrisers Hyderabad6/1

 
Each Way: 1/2 1 - 2

Possible Payout 165.00 GBP

2 bets @
15.00 GBP


Total Cost: 30.00 GBP
Total Possible Payout (inc. stake): 165.00 GBP

BET PLACED

[horseplayer]

Philippe Auclair ‏@PhilippeAuclair  1m
Courtois - see UEFA satement - http://www.uefa.org/about-uefa/administration/news/newsid=2088774.html …. Forget the 'clauses', he'll play.

Somebody suggested it was not a big deal if he played or not i would beg to differ been superhuman this season after being excellent last season.

[horseplayer]

BET SUGGESTION £20 WIN ZA APPROVAL 9/1 PATRICK POWERPUFF

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/americas/keeneland/22:13/winner

Fred hero Wise Dan re appears tonight as a seven year old for another season at the top. No need for me to say how good a horse he is yet again but at 2/5 he is not backable on his comeback (despite being by far the most likely winner)

ZA APPROVAL has had a recent ish run and should be sharper for that (will need to be) its a price thing really a couple of firms have gone 5/1 and one 6/1 both of those look about right the 9/1 is a small rick. If we had an extra runner could have had a fair each way bet but alas not.

[tikay]

Morning Mr T.

In the Casablanca tennis there is a bet I quite like in the Berlocq / Garcia Lopez match. I thought Berlocq was impressive and I think that him to win 2-0 is a decent bet.

Suggest £15 Berlocq 2-0 @ 6/4 with Coral.

Delbonnis plays Hanescu tomorrow and is currently 7-2 favourite for the tournament.

A friend whose opinion I respect on tennis says the following:

He's been on a slow comeback from injury

Keeps randomly losing to scrubs

Garcia-Lopez is much better value to beat him

6/4

Not that I'd touch the match either way

Won 3 lost 5 so far this year and has played 1 decent player

Opponent today is possibly best of the bunch

Why do you have people whose bets are auto bets?
Not picking on hector but even the people who are auto bets can miss/not be aware of certain things.

Well because we need to trust some folks, but that does not mean they get it right all the time.

hector has a profitable ROI here, & I trust his judgement, on top of which, he's such fun, always a bit of banter, these bets are golden, they help keep Fred interesting, & he's hugely popular here.

He's not alone, either, we have dozens of regulars who we generally auto-bet, unless objections are raised. I can think of at least 30 off the top of my head.

But the point is that nobody else has to do them. Fred does them, but Fred is just the mortar in the brickwork that binds the thread together.

It's just intended to be a fun thread, where we all try & take what we want from it, & feel free to leave what we don't like. We try & keep the thread bubbling along for entertainment, as well as education.

I have to say, being the guy who decides what Fred does & does not bet - me previously, Tighty mostly now - is a right sod of a job, it's really not easy trying to keep everyone happy.

I hope you & others continue to enjoy Fred, & if you like or dislike a bet, always Post accordingly. But you don't have to follow anyone - that's the whole idea, we all get a rich variety of views from which we can choose.

Incidentally, ANYONE can "challenge" any suggestion, & you did so, which is fine & dandy. But the bet was already on, so it was too late. We generally do hector's  stuff quickly, because almost all of his bets are in extremely "thin" markets, where very little money is enough to move the Market.

I hope that helps explain the logic. Or lack of.

[McGlashan]

I'm on athletico thanks to Fred, was thinking bout greening back the stake, but they still look big to me. They gonna be one of those teams noone takes serious all the way through?

It'd be nice I hear the opinions of some elders on this.

The price has never looked good for hedging. I was on after the group draw and had planned on doing so.

Also Courtois will not play if Atletico meet Chelsea.

I don't think I like the A-Madrid price now - I was the one who put it up earlier at 20/1. However not sure how much of an impact the it will have without the first choice keeper, hardly like losing your best or one of your better outfield players.

I don't think you wre first.  Somebody put them up at 50/1.  I backed them when you were banging on about them only to discover I had backed them previously and forgotten about it.  Pretty sure I read the 50/1 here, but long since forgotten who it was.

Thanks whoever it was.

That might of been me. I mentioned it but give it a proper write up as the price began to move.

Needless to say they've exceeded anyone's expectations this season.

[TightEnd]

BET SUGGESTION £20 WIN ZA APPROVAL 9/1 PATRICK POWERPUFF

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/americas/keeneland/22:13/winner

Fred hero Wise Dan re appears tonight as a seven year old for another season at the top. No need for me to say how good a horse he is yet again but at 2/5 he is not backable on his comeback (despite being by far the most likely winner)

ZA APPROVAL has had a recent ish run and should be sharper for that (will need to be) its a price thing really a couple of firms have gone 5/1 and one 6/1 both of those look about right the 9/1 is a small rick. If we had an extra runner could have had a fair each way bet but alas not.

Win
Single: 1. Za Approval @ 9/1
1 line at £3.51 per line
Total stake for this bet: £3.51
Potential returns: £35.10
No: O/23146337/0000462

that was the max they would allow

alternatives to PP always keenly sought, but the rest of the market was 6-1 or less.

[TightEnd]

out this am, I notice

http://ibnlive.in.com/news/cricketnext/ipl-7-sunrisers-hyderabad-can-emerge-as-the-dark-horse/464285-78.html

[TightEnd]

Uefa Europa League Semi Final Draw…

Sevilla v Valencia.

Benfica v Juventus.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/europa-league/winner