Tips for Tikay

[DungBeetle]

"Idoubt there is too much risk in being sluggish with lettuce."

[Omm]

Aren't we just waiting for some social misfit to bowl in singing a decent tune, so we can back up the truck?

tikay may feel different, after all as such a noted aficianado of such shows he will have an opinion, but my view is to wait until we have seen all the audtion programmes.

Why would we back a magician and a violinist when (insert name of dog act) (insert name of this years susan boyle) (insert name of carphone warehouse opera singer) is in the coming weeks?

All for spotting value, but we don't even know the field yet

thanks Omm, Keep us in touch with what you see in the programmes and we can bet a bit down the line, even if we miss a bit of value now Idoubt there is too much risk in being sluggish with lettuce.

No probs. Will re advise if appropriate.

[tikay]

"Idoubt there is too much risk in being sluggish with lettuce."

Way too good.

[cheapwetsuit]

Tomorrow sees the 78th edition of La Fleche Wallonne. Starting in Charleroi, the route heads east to Huy, where the peloton does three laps of a tough, hilly circuit culminating in a third (and final) ascent of the extremely steep Mur de Huy (1.3km @ 9.3% ave. gradient (26% max. gradient)). The favourites to win are thus all decent climbers, with those riders able to deliver sharp, explosive bursts of acceleration on the steeps (ie. puncheurs) likely to finish on the podium.

The list of favourites pre-race goes something like this:
Daniel Moreno (2/1 general)
Philippe Gilbert (7/2 best)
Alejandro Valverde (10/1 best)
Joaquim "Purito" Rodriguez (9/1 general; 12/1 best)
Michal Kwiatkowski (16/1)
Carlos Betancur  (33/1 best)
Daniel Martin (25/1 best)
Diego Ulissi (18/1)
Tom-Jelte Slagter (22/1 best)

Looking at the books of the five firms who have priced up the race so far (Bet635, ScuyBet, PottyPower, SpoilSports, UnsportingBet), it is safe to say that there seems to be no general consensus on who is likely to appear on the podium. In fact, the odds quoted are all over the place. Last year, it was a much simpler affair: Betancur, Rodriguez and Henao (who is currently suspended by Sky pending an investigation into some curious test results) were favourites owing to Rodriguez being the defending champion, and the other two impressing on the steep finish of Stage 3 of the 2013 Vuelta a Pais Vasco (I suggest watching it: http://www.steephill.tv/players/eitb/?title=Last+Km+of+Stage+3&dashboard=vuelta-al-pais-vasco&id=1302958&yr=2013). My personal pick for the Fleche last year was Betancur, who ended up 3rd behind Henao (2nd) and Moreno (Rodriguez crashed in the Amstel Gold Race, and possibly saved himself for Liege-Bastogne-Liege 3 days later (where he finished 2nd), letting his Katusha team-mate win)).

This year, however, there seems to be a distinct lack of in-form puncheurs in the race, opening up the race to the field. So let's start putting a line through some of the names above, at the end of which, I'll introduce a new one:

Moreno is the defending champion, and knows his way up the Mur de Huy. Rodriguez has once again crashed in the Amstel Gold Race, ostensibly bruising his ribs, and has thus been dropped as bookies' favourite. Moreno was 7/1 before this bit of news came out, and I'm upset I missed it, because he is a worthy favourite. However ... although I am a big fan of his, he has been ever so slightly disappointing this year on the climbs. Whereas I have been expecting him to blow everyone away this year on the steeps, it is on the flatter finishes where he has shown the most explosiveness. I don't have any proof, but possibly he has put on a bit of weight to improve his strength over the line, a la Betancur. For this reason, I will not be backing him at 4/1. Or Betancur, who although in good form, is apparently suffering from a knee injury, and has lost his punchiness from last year.

Gilbert has had a great run-up to the Fleche, winning the flatter Brabaantse Pijl and the Amstel Gold Race on Sunday. He is in cracking form, and has won this race before, in 2011. However, his one weakness will be the sharp ascent of the Mur de Huy, and it remains to be seen whether he'll have the legs to outduel the competition. Being a field suffering from injuries and lack of form, he might have a decent chance to repeat. I'm going to swerve him purely on reputation. I'm still looking for that punchy climber.

Valverde, Kwiatkowski and Ulissi all possess the speed to win, and climbing prowess. But not in combination. If any of them manage to gap the field, then they can go on to win, but if it comes down to a five-man struggle to the finish, I would not be picking any of them to come out on top. Their skill sets are best suited to Sunday's Liege-Bastogne-Liege.

Rodriguez, I'm ruling out on the basis of his injuries ... suggesting that he'll do the same as last year, and save himself for Liege-Bastogne-Liege (more to come on this...).

Slagter had an unimpressive Amstel Gold Race finishing 21st. He says that he lost his legs on the final climb of the Cauberg. I'm more inclined to think that when he failed to gap the field, he sat up, saw Gilbert, Valverde, Gerrans and Kwiatkowski around him, said to himself "No chance against these guys in a sprint!", and saved his legs for the considerably more suitable Fleche. I will be having him as my each-way saver, not in small part because the man who finished 21st in last year's edition of the Amstel Gold Race was a certain Daniel Moreno.

So I'm going against the field, flying in the face of the experts (you can see their opinions here: http://www.c-cycling.com/sites/Fleche_Wallonne_2014.html and here: http://www.cyclingquotes.com/news/fleche_wallonne_preview_1/). Who is my mystery man to win it all? What is my absurd theory of cycling relativity? How will I return Fred to profitability (or alternatively destroy the bankrolls of many a punter)? His name is Giampaolo Caruso.

Like Rodriguez and Moreno, Caruso is part of the mighty Katusha team, who are trying to win La Fleche de Wallonne for a third year in a row. 16th in Sunday's Amstel, he launched numerous attacks at the head of the field, but unfortunately, couldn't make any of them stick. He did this unselfishly in support of his captain Moreno (after Rodriguez had crashed out), in order to soften up the field for a later attack ... which disappointingly never came. Last year, Caruso finished 11th in La Fleche, doing much the same thing. What makes me pick him over Moreno for the win comes down to three things:

1. Caruso is currently a better puncheur than Moreno. Whereas last year we had Stage 3 of the Vuelta a Pais Vasco to show us the favourites (incidentally Caruso finished 3rd to Henao and Betancur), this year we have the 5th Stage of the Tirreno-Adriatico, which finished on the hellishly steep Muro di Guardiagrele, as a litmus test. In the event, Contador crossed the line first, ahead of a few breakaways and Jean-Christophe Peraud. Next over the line was Caruso, who managed to gap Moreno (who he was riding in support of) by 9 seconds (probably in a last-ditch team-driven attempt to prevent Peraud from gaining valuable bonus seconds across the line).

2. Moreno in his current form is better suited to Liege-Bastogne-Liege. If indeed Moreno is carrying more weight, he is going to struggle to accelerate up the Mur de Huy, as heavier riders generally make poorer puncheurs. If Katusha decide to aim Moreno at LBL, Rodriguez will have to take a back seat. This is not beyond the realms of possiblity with the prestigious Giro d'Italia still to come for Rodriguez. And we still do not know the full extent of his injuries.

3. Caruso is generally trading at a very attractive 100/1. In a field without any clear favourites, I prefer backing longer odds for less capital risk. Call it value pie.

In conclusion, I recommend backing Giampaolo Caruso to win La Fleche Wallonne £5 e/w @ 150/1 (UnsportingBet).
And a saver on Tom-Jelte Slagter ... £5 e/w @ 22/1 (PottyPower).
Good luck us.

[tikay]

Thanks Wetty.

For those who are new around here, Wetty gave us a 125/1 (or was it 150/1?) Cycling winner last year.

Eso Walsall gives us long shots too, though with a subtle difference. 

[TightEnd]

Tomorrow sees the 78th edition of La Fleche Wallonne. Starting in Charleroi, the route heads east to Huy, where the peloton does three laps of a tough, hilly circuit culminating in a third (and final) ascent of the extremely steep Mur de Huy (1.3km @ 9.3% ave. gradient (26% max. gradient)). The favourites to win are thus all decent climbers, with those riders able to deliver sharp, explosive bursts of acceleration on the steeps (ie. puncheurs) likely to finish on the podium.

The list of favourites pre-race goes something like this:
Daniel Moreno (2/1 general)
Philippe Gilbert (7/2 best)
Alejandro Valverde (10/1 best)
Joaquim "Purito" Rodriguez (9/1 general; 12/1 best)
Michal Kwiatkowski (16/1)
Carlos Betancur  (33/1 best)
Daniel Martin (25/1 best)
Diego Ulissi (18/1)
Tom-Jelte Slagter (22/1 best)

Looking at the books of the five firms who have priced up the race so far (Bet635, ScuyBet, PottyPower, SpoilSports, UnsportingBet), it is safe to say that there seems to be no general consensus on who is likely to appear on the podium. In fact, the odds quoted are all over the place. Last year, it was a much simpler affair: Betancur, Rodriguez and Henao (who is currently suspended by Sky pending an investigation into some curious test results) were favourites owing to Rodriguez being the defending champion, and the other two impressing on the steep finish of Stage 3 of the 2013 Vuelta a Pais Vasco (I suggest watching it: http://www.steephill.tv/players/eitb/?title=Last+Km+of+Stage+3&dashboard=vuelta-al-pais-vasco&id=1302958&yr=2013). My personal pick for the Fleche last year was Betancur, who ended up 3rd behind Henao (2nd) and Moreno (Rodriguez crashed in the Amstel Gold Race, and possibly saved himself for Liege-Bastogne-Liege 3 days later (where he finished 2nd), letting his Katusha team-mate win)).

This year, however, there seems to be a distinct lack of in-form puncheurs in the race, opening up the race to the field. So let's start putting a line through some of the names above, at the end of which, I'll introduce a new one:

Moreno is the defending champion, and knows his way up the Mur de Huy. Rodriguez has once again crashed in the Amstel Gold Race, ostensibly bruising his ribs, and has thus been dropped as bookies' favourite. Moreno was 7/1 before this bit of news came out, and I'm upset I missed it, because he is a worthy favourite. However ... although I am a big fan of his, he has been ever so slightly disappointing this year on the climbs. Whereas I have been expecting him to blow everyone away this year on the steeps, it is on the flatter finishes where he has shown the most explosiveness. I don't have any proof, but possibly he has put on a bit of weight to improve his strength over the line, a la Betancur. For this reason, I will not be backing him at 4/1. Or Betancur, who although in good form, is apparently suffering from a knee injury, and has lost his punchiness from last year.

Gilbert has had a great run-up to the Fleche, winning the flatter Brabaantse Pijl and the Amstel Gold Race on Sunday. He is in cracking form, and has won this race before, in 2011. However, his one weakness will be the sharp ascent of the Mur de Huy, and it remains to be seen whether he'll have the legs to outduel the competition. Being a field suffering from injuries and lack of form, he might have a decent chance to repeat. I'm going to swerve him purely on reputation. I'm still looking for that punchy climber.

Valverde, Kwiatkowski and Ulissi all possess the speed to win, and climbing prowess. But not in combination. If any of them manage to gap the field, then they can go on to win, but if it comes down to a five-man struggle to the finish, I would not be picking any of them to come out on top. Their skill sets are best suited to Sunday's Liege-Bastogne-Liege.

Rodriguez, I'm ruling out on the basis of his injuries ... suggesting that he'll do the same as last year, and save himself for Liege-Bastogne-Liege (more to come on this...).

Slagter had an unimpressive Amstel Gold Race finishing 21st. He says that he lost his legs on the final climb of the Cauberg. I'm more inclined to think that when he failed to gap the field, he sat up, saw Gilbert, Valverde, Gerrans and Kwiatkowski around him, said to himself "No chance against these guys in a sprint!", and saved his legs for the considerably more suitable Fleche. I will be having him as my each-way saver, not in small part because the man who finished 21st in last year's edition of the Amstel Gold Race was a certain Daniel Moreno.

So I'm going against the field, flying in the face of the experts (you can see their opinions here: http://www.c-cycling.com/sites/Fleche_Wallonne_2014.html and here: http://www.cyclingquotes.com/news/fleche_wallonne_preview_1/). Who is my mystery man to win it all? What is my absurd theory of cycling relativity? How will I return Fred to profitability (or alternatively destroy the bankrolls of many a punter)? His name is Giampaolo Caruso.

Like Rodriguez and Moreno, Caruso is part of the mighty Katusha team, who are trying to win La Fleche de Wallonne for a third year in a row. 16th in Sunday's Amstel, he launched numerous attacks at the head of the field, but unfortunately, couldn't make any of them stick. He did this unselfishly in support of his captain Moreno (after Rodriguez had crashed out), in order to soften up the field for a later attack ... which disappointingly never came. Last year, Caruso finished 11th in La Fleche, doing much the same thing. What makes me pick him over Moreno for the win comes down to three things:

1. Caruso is currently a better puncheur than Moreno. Whereas last year we had Stage 3 of the Vuelta a Pais Vasco to show us the favourites (incidentally Caruso finished 3rd to Henao and Betancur), this year we have the 5th Stage of the Tirreno-Adriatico, which finished on the hellishly steep Muro di Guardiagrele, as a litmus test. In the event, Contador crossed the line first, ahead of a few breakaways and Jean-Christophe Peraud. Next over the line was Caruso, who managed to gap Moreno (who he was riding in support of) by 9 seconds (probably in a last-ditch team-driven attempt to prevent Peraud from gaining valuable bonus seconds across the line).

2. Moreno in his current form is better suited to Liege-Bastogne-Liege. If indeed Moreno is carrying more weight, he is going to struggle to accelerate up the Mur de Huy, as heavier riders generally make poorer puncheurs. If Katusha decide to aim Moreno at LBL, Rodriguez will have to take a back seat. This is not beyond the realms of possiblity with the prestigious Giro d'Italia still to come for Rodriguez. And we still do not know the full extent of his injuries.

3. Caruso is generally trading at a very attractive 100/1. In a field without any clear favourites, I prefer backing longer odds for less capital risk. Call it value pie.

In conclusion, I recommend backing Giampaolo Caruso to win La Fleche Wallonne £5 e/w @ 150/1 (UnsportingBet).
And a saver on Tom-Jelte Slagter ... £5 e/w @ 22/1 (PottyPower).
Good luck us.

well now, a cheapwetsuit special

Jason very kindly gave this to tikay in advance and the results trying to get on were unsurprisingly tricky

"tried to get on with PP, they gave me £1.03 EW on the 100/1 shot, & £3.91 EW on the 22/1 shot.

I tried Bet365, they wanted to let me have £0.01 ew (ONE PENNY) on the 100/1, & 56p ew on the other one, so I did not bother. "

so, we went to an agent of class and distinction, who promptly sent her husband (who was looking decidedly forlorn this weekend at the prospect of a trip to Turkey..a trip to Turkey to put on bets no less!) off and the results of the Bandit jury were

£5 e/w on both, at 22/1 and 100/1 respectively. 2 bets placed

thank you to the man with the increasingly threadbare shoe leather, and his Mrs

[Omm]

Great write up Jason, love it when I have to google words to know what they mean. All adds to the knowledge

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Puncheur

Goodluck.

[redarmi]

Know not many, including Fred can get on but think the Paddy Power offer today of moneyback if the game is a draw is a very good one.  Like Costa to score first specifically but most reasonable options would be value.

[tikay]

Great write up Jason, love it when I have to google words to know what they mean. All adds to the knowledge

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Puncheur

Goodluck.

Glad I was not the only one who had to look it up.

I expect Tal Posh-Bloke & Tighty knew though. Chompy, not so much.

[Tal]

Great write up Jason, love it when I have to google words to know what they mean. All adds to the knowledge

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Puncheur

Goodluck.

Glad I was not the only one who had to look it up.

I expect Tal Posh-Bloke & Tighty knew though. Chompy, not so much.

I learned a good one today, myself: contumelious.

The noun it comes from is contumely, which has an unusual ending for a noun, because it looks like it should be an adjective (like untimely).

Anyway, best get on.

[horseplayer]

Very sad news about Freddie Bodde

One of the great what if players really was supreme for Swansea on the way up

wish him well

[mondatoo]

Know not many, including Fred can get on but think the Paddy Power offer today of moneyback if the game is a draw is a very good one.  Like Costa to score first specifically but most reasonable options would be value.

Confirmed qualified ice cream on here also 

[Rubbish2407]

Very sad news about Freddie Bodde

One of the great what if players really was supreme for Swansea on the way up

wish him well

What's happened to him now Horsey? Thought he had retired and was coaching in Holland?

[aaron1867]

I think there is an interesting market for the Championship relegation battle at the moment.





Blackpool 11/8

Two games left are Wigan (A) & Charlton (H)

Doncaster 10/3

Reading (h) & Leicester (A)

MIllwall 9/2

QPR (A) & Bournemouth (H)

I think there is a bet here for Millwall. If Blackpool pick up one more point than Millwall then Millwall will be relegated. I could easily see Millwall losing both games here.

[horseplayer]

Very sad news about Freddie Bodde

One of the great what if players really was supreme for Swansea on the way up

wish him well

What's happened to him now Horsey? Thought he had retired and was coaching in Holland?

taken into a coma on holiday with a virus of somekind.

Apparently not life threatening that 5 million rejected bid from Bolton must seem a lifetime away

Here is more on it

http://t.co/4wVmEFVxhe