Tips for Tikay

[Ironside]

Thinking 2.62 with coral is value for Everton away to Southampton today even Betfair exchange is slightly lower at 2.58

Can't remember last saints goal small squad is taking its toll players are jaded legs have gone and are looking forward to there holibobs

Everton need to win if they are going to jump into top 4 and on a high after beating man u

[Tal]

My worry would be is Adam even certain to start?  Last 4 games he has started on the bench.  If he plays any part off the bench the bet will stand but we will be in a terrible spot.   Don't think there is much value in the bet anyway but with him highly likely to start on the bench its a def no-no for me.

I sort of had the gut feel that quite often - more than statistically probable - a player coming off the bench, full of pent-up emotion, can often get booked very quickly.

Guess we had better wait & see the Team news, anyway.

Fair enough. I've seen he's not been starting but I'd be surprised to see him on the bench today. Spurs won't be playing a defensive midfielder and the team should theoretically suit his style.

[redarmi]

Agree with Doobs there

Seen the usual suspects elsewhere putting up sides "with something to play for"

There is very little evidence certainly in England that sides who have been poor all season suddenly become good and win a lot more.

The lower down the leagues the way a lot of the contracts are now even sides in mid table will have a lot of players out of contract or coming to be in a month trying to be offered a new one or attract someone else.

I did a bit of work the other week which indicated that there does seem to be some statistical sense in following teams that have got something to play for, near the end of the season.
Sample size is too low to prove/disprove, and the reality is it's more likely due to teams who have nothing to get motivated by, tinkering with team selection, giving fringe/young players a run out.

Same work showed that corners and goals increase in games where both teams need a win in last two or three games of the season. Same sample size issues, so not going to recommend anything specific.

The bolded makes perfect sense.  I have done similar work on Cup games and goals expectancy is much higher in a cup game than it would be in a "normal" league tie between the same two teams.  I think this is because of the fact that draws are effectively useless and even undesirable in these games which is the opposite to some league games.   When you model football using poisson distribution one of the main issues to tackle is this idea that teams effectively settle for a draw at some point in league games and push less hard and their goals expectancy therefore have a degree of dependency.  It only occurs when teams are relatively well matched but the stats suggest it is definitely a factor but in games like this that goes out of the window and the tactics change.  I used to blind bet over in early round league cup games on that basis and did fairly well for a while until the market effectively adjusted but there may still be value in these league games with similar characteristics and corners are probably related and might be a good angle.

[tikay]

WH mobile offer

3.15 Sandown Sire De Grugy 1/3

Thanks Lisa.

We are on, suitably encouraged, even though we missed 1/3, we are on at 1/4.

£25 @ 1/4, SDG, Wm Hill, £25 Free Bet if 2nd.


26 Apr 14 / 11:49

Stake

3:15 Sandown – Sire De Grugy @ Guaranteed Price (1/4)

- £25.00

O/0457483/0000940/F

BET PLACED

[tikay]

Joe Perry is showing remarkable composure against Ronnie, looking good for a 12-10 lead & a bit of an upset.

[tikay]

....and instantly goes in-off, to return the initative to Ronnie.

Bokking skills still intact.

[Tal]

Ronnie has refused to play a couple of key shots left handed today, instead opting to stretch right handed. Both times, he's rattled the jaws but the ball has dropped. Had Ronnie's long potting been the standard it's been for the rest of this season, I think Perry would have won by now. As it is, he's barely missed one all match.

[arbboy]

awesome game 11-11 game on.

[Tal]

awesome game 11-11 game on.

Best of three now.

Perry doesn't look like winning in one visit atm

[tikay]

awesome game 11-11 game on.

11-11, & Betfair have Ronnie @ 1.41, & Joe @ 3.35.

[redarmi]

WH mobile offer

3.15 Sandown Sire De Grugy 1/3

Thanks Lisa.

We are on, suitably encouraged, even though we missed 1/3, we are on at 1/4.

£25 @ 1/4, SDG, Wm Hill, £25 Free Bet if 2nd.


26 Apr 14 / 11:49

Stake

3:15 Sandown – Sire De Grugy @ Guaranteed Price (1/4)

- £25.00

O/0457483/0000940/F

BET PLACED

Just thinking aloud a bit here but I do think that the really short priced favourites over fences might still be close to -EV for the Hills offer on the basis that the horses fnishing position when it doesn't win is pretty highly weighted to not finishing ie falling or being pulled up.  I am not sure how often a horse like Sire De Grugy actually gets beat fair and square into second place here.  It is currently trading at 1.07 to be placed on betfair but the problem is they are paying 3 places in a six runner field but if we assume that is current betfair win price is 1.3 that is an implied win probability of 76.92% and the place is 93.45% so they say it comes in the top three but doesn't win 16.53% of the time so it is probably fair to assume it comes second 8-9% of the time and we are giving up at least 4% of EV on the bet already.  Just not sure we quite get that back.  Its definitely not massively -ev and it is a fairly unique spot but nevertheless I think it is worth thinking about.

[aaron1867]

Agree with Reds, exactly my thoughts on it, think we need a horse in the 2.40 for the offer though, only 5 runners. Suggesting Menorah @ 5/2

[tikay]

Ronnie needs 1 frame (12-11) and is 1.14 on Betfair.

That seems very short.

[Tal]

Ronnie needs 1 frame (12-11) and is 1.14 on Betfair.

That seems very short.

That price won't last long!

[Nico29]

I am pretty sure Doobs has explained how the offer is +ev on short prices no matter what about 1000 times.

I certainly would rather place the bet with the offer than lay it.