Tips for Tikay

[arbboy]

What would be the expected price for 11th v 2nd in the Premier League?

11th is at home.

Both teams have near identical records on paper for the last 6 games - they both won the first 5, & lost the 6th.


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/crystal-palace-v-liverpool/winner

I don't think the answer is 8/1 but we've been here before. Palace look value but teams in this spot have been "illusory" value this season

Wait for the teamsheet and if Dikgacoi starts with Jedinak, there is value in 8/1, if not, we will only have one solid defensive midfielder and that would not be enough! On top of that I think it would be a plus to see Ledley start in front of Chamakh, but I think all you need is Dikgacoi in to make it a bet.

And illusionary value is a little off Tighty. I would suggest bookies have offered value for Palace in these spots and you would be up if you backed all of the long odds for Palace since Pulis joined, with Chelsea at home and Everton away coming in.

i wasn't talking about Palace specifically merely we must have had 10+ situations this season where non top six teams have been "big" prices against heavily backed big boys (usually Liverpool) and its proved illusory.

It is too results orientated to describe them as illusory.  The value is real but at this time of the year you need to discard teams quickly that aren't "off".  Finishing top half is a very real achievement for Palace and they are still showing up.  I think they are value too

Think the key thing to remember here is the vast majority of the palace team are playing for contracts as this still isn't Pulis's team and he will be doing some serious wheeling and dealing in the summer to make the squad more to his liking.  I would imagine their motivation is as high as it could possibly be for a safe midtable club in the last 2 weeks of the year.

[cheapwetsuit]

In the cycling, we can scratch our Rohan Dennis bet

Dennis managed to finish a respectable 14th in the final time-trial stage (38sec behind Froome ... who is in super form). So in the end the podium for the Tour de Romandie looked like this:

1. Chris Froome   16:18:46
2. Simon Spilak           +28
3. Rui Costa            +1:32

What makes this bet so frustrating, is that Dennis finished ahead of his team-mate Talansky in the TT (by 11sec), but did not take the opportunity to hang with the leaders on the Queen stage (which I fully expected him to do). If (with the benefit of hindsight) he had managed to stick with the group of Costa, Fuglsang, Intxausti, Frank and Nibali on Stage 3, he would theoretically have finished 3rd overall by the enormous margin of 1sec, thereby validating my pick.

Back to the books for the Giro, I think.

[horseplayer]

Lots of racing tommorow but this stands out at 6/1 with the firm with the twitter pr mafia

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-05-05-bath/16:20/winner

First run in handicap 65 looks fair enough, Pat Murphy to Peter Makin a plus has shown ability and other than my son max none of the rest have anything in hand and/or best conditions.

The other one would be the Candy handicap debutant but 75 does not look an obvious gift

Suggest £30 ALPINE MIST

[TightEnd]

a draw between Sunderland and West Brom sees them both stay up at the expense of the Canaries.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/sunderland-v-west-brom/winner

ok so we're not talking serie b here, but i suspect the 5/2 has to come in does it not?

[arbboy]

great spot tighty

[tikay]

a draw between Sunderland and West Brom sees them both stay up at the expense of the Canaries.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/sunderland-v-west-brom/winner

ok so we're not talking serie b here, but i suspect the 5/2 has to come in does it not?

Looks a value price to me, we almost get the " we can chop this up" for a freeroll.

[Nico29]

West brom are basically safe because of goal difference anyways.

Price might shorten but not sure it really should do.

[redarmi]

I have just bet 0-0 and some under 0.5 goals.  Can't see it being particularly high tempo etc and whilst not bent as such I'd be surprised it both teams weren't willing to settle for 0-0 if the game gets to 60-70 minutes without a goal.

[BigAdz]

I am assuming/recall it was a Fred/Chompy rebuff, but on sweeping accounts my Sid account has gone up by a fair few squid I knew little about.

On digging, it appears an ew bet on Lightening Thunder was the benefactor, that I had forgotten all about, especially as it was outside the 6 month working window they operate.

Thanks Chompy, you're the best....but you know that anyway!

[mulhuzz]

I have just bet 0-0 and some under 0.5 goals.  Can't see it being particularly high tempo etc and whilst not bent as such I'd be surprised it both teams weren't willing to settle for 0-0 if the game gets to 60-70 minutes without a goal.

Ice Cream question incoming.....

Difference between betting 0-0 and betting under 0.5 goals?

Something to do with own goals I'm guessing?

[Waz1892]

a draw between Sunderland and West Brom sees them both stay up at the expense of the Canaries.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/sunderland-v-west-brom/winner

ok so we're not talking serie b here, but i suspect the 5/2 has to come in does it not?

saw this too - surely nothing but a draw will be played for.

[kpnuts]

I have just bet 0-0 and some under 0.5 goals.  Can't see it being particularly high tempo etc and whilst not bent as such I'd be surprised it both teams weren't willing to settle for 0-0 if the game gets to 60-70 minutes without a goal.

Ice Cream question incoming.....

Difference between betting 0-0 and betting under 0.5 goals?

Something to do with own goals I'm guessing?

think you mean No Goalscorer on FGS mkt, the 'optimum' bet if you fancy 0-0 as prices usually same.

[tikay]

a draw between Sunderland and West Brom sees them both stay up at the expense of the Canaries.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/sunderland-v-west-brom/winner

ok so we're not talking serie b here, but i suspect the 5/2 has to come in does it not?

saw this too - surely nothing but a draw will be played for.

They have nothing to play for, so the draw must be worth an interest.

However, as Nico pointed out, effectively, West Brom are safe anyway, due to Goal Difference, so the draw is not cut & dried - it does seem reasonably likely that it will be played like a dead rubber though.

[kukushkin88]

a draw between Sunderland and West Brom sees them both stay up at the expense of the Canaries.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/sunderland-v-west-brom/winner

ok so we're not talking serie b here, but i suspect the 5/2 has to come in does it not?

saw this too - surely nothing but a draw will be played for.

It's an ok bet at 5/2 but teams aren't really agreeing to play for a draw except in bent games. Too many variables/chance elements.

[mulhuzz]

I have just bet 0-0 and some under 0.5 goals.  Can't see it being particularly high tempo etc and whilst not bent as such I'd be surprised it both teams weren't willing to settle for 0-0 if the game gets to 60-70 minutes without a goal.

Ice Cream question incoming.....

Difference between betting 0-0 and betting under 0.5 goals?

Something to do with own goals I'm guessing?

think you mean No Goalscorer on FGS mkt, the 'optimum' bet if you fancy 0-0 as prices usually same.

I mean whatever redarmi meant added in bold, his could also just be a typo ofc